Padres Get a Haul for Craig Kimbrel

When you give Dave Dombrowski a loaded farm system and a mandate to win, something like this is probably inevitable. The Red Sox new President of Baseball Operations swung his first deal since taking over, bringing Craig Kimbrel to Boston to assume ninth inning duties and give the team a big boost in the bullpen. The cost, however, was quite steep.

To land Kimbrel, Dombrowksi parted with outfielder Manny Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, second baseman Carlos Asuaje, and left-handed pitcher Logan Allen, which is a pretty remarkable group of prospects to acquire for any player, much less a relief pitcher. Back in August, not too terribly long before the Braves hired him away from us, Kiley McDaniel rated Margot as the #19 prospect in all of baseball, putting a 60 FV grade on him, which put him in the tier of guys that ran from #7 to #20. For context, he ranked Dansby Swanson, who just went #1 overall in this summer’s draft, at #24, with a 55 FV.

From my perspective, Margot for Kimbrel alone would have been a deal worth making for the Padres, but in addition, they’re also getting Javier Guerra, who got upgraded to a 50 FV prospect in that same mid-season update. For context, 50 FV prospects ranked from #80 to #142 last year, so that pegs him as a back-end Top 100 prospect, also a valuable asset. Asuaje got a 40 FV grade and looks more like a part-time player than an everyday guy, but middle infielders who hold their own in AA aren’t nothing. And while Allen didn’t appear on Kiley’s Red Sox list last year or in the mid-season update, Baseball America’s Ben Badler tweeted this out tonight.

You Aren't a FanGraphs Member
It looks like you aren't yet a FanGraphs Member (or aren't logged in). We aren't mad, just disappointed.
We get it. You want to read this article. But before we let you get back to it, we'd like to point out a few of the good reasons why you should become a Member.
1. Ad Free viewing! We won't bug you with this ad, or any other.
2. Unlimited articles! Non-Members only get to read 10 free articles a month. Members never get cut off.
3. Dark mode and Classic mode!
4. Custom player page dashboards! Choose the player cards you want, in the order you want them.
5. One-click data exports! Export our projections and leaderboards for your personal projects.
6. Remove the photos on the home page! (Honestly, this doesn't sound so great to us, but some people wanted it, and we like to give our Members what they want.)
7. Even more Steamer projections! We have handedness, percentile, and context neutral projections available for Members only.
8. Get FanGraphs Walk-Off, a customized year end review! Find out exactly how you used FanGraphs this year, and how that compares to other Members. Don't be a victim of FOMO.
9. A weekly mailbag column, exclusively for Members.
10. Help support FanGraphs and our entire staff! Our Members provide us with critical resources to improve the site and deliver new features!
We hope you'll consider a Membership today, for yourself or as a gift! And we realize this has been an awfully long sales pitch, so we've also removed all the other ads in this article. We didn't want to overdo it.

So that’s a Top 25 prospect, a Top 100 prospect, a guy with 2nd-3rd round ability, and a depth piece with enough upside to be kinda interesting. That is a remarkable return for a reliever, and in my view, quite a bit more than what the Angels gave up to acquire Andrelton Simmons yesterday. Not that the Red Sox needed a young shortstop, but the fact that the Padres got more for a one inning reliever — even a really great one — than the Braves got for a 25 year old above average shortstop is pretty surprising to me.

Of course, we just saw the Royals bullpen their way to the World Series two years in a row, and Jeff just provided some evidence the other day that elite relief aces may bring more value to a team than just their own run prevention abilities would suggest. Kimbrel isn’t a rental, since he’s under contract through 2017, with an option for 2018 as well, so this isn’t necessarily just a win-now move. And the Red Sox have a great farm system, with elite young talents at both SS and CF already in the majors, so Margot and Guerra were likely trade bait at some point.

But this is a very high price to pay for a reliever. Kimbrel’s awesome, and we may very well be selling elite relievers short on their overall value, but Kimbrel didn’t fix the Padres problems by himself, and the Red Sox will have more work to do this winter, and now have fewer chips with which to do it. For A.J. Preller, this is the kind of move that, if he can repeat a few more times, can undo a lot of the damage that was done last winter, and from my perspective, this marks his first big win as a GM.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

248 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
CC AFCMember since 2016
10 years ago

For serious, Dave. My first thought was maybe the Padres are eating a bunch of Kimbrel’s contract, but that’s not the case, right? Well done by the clergymen.

Dave Cameron to Eno Sarris to COBOL and Back...
10 years ago
Reply to  CC AFC

000010 IDENTIFICATION DIVISION * Dave Dombrowski 000020
PROGRAM-ID. SAMPLE. 000030 AUTHOR. CAMERON UNIT [–BLINK–]
DATE-WRITTEN — 13/11/2015.(000041 000042*)
000045* At the end this number is printed. 000046 000050 ENVIRONMENT DIVISION. 000060 INPUT-OUTPUT SECTION. 000070 FILE-CONTROL. 000080 SELECT STUDENT-FILE ASSIGN TO SYSIN 000090 ORGANIZATION IS LINE SEQUENTIAL. 000100 SELECT PRINT-FILE ASSIGN TO SYSOUT 000110 ORGANIZATION IS LINE SEQUENTIAL. 000120 000130 DATA DIVISION. 000140 FILE SECTION. 000150 FD STUDENT-FILE 000160 RECORD CONTAINS 43 CHARACTERS 000170 DATA RECORD IS STUDENT-IN. 000180 01 STUDENT-IN PIC X(43) OUTPUT / OUTPUT / OUTPUT:

If you give the farm system and authority , which is filled to win the Dave Dombrowski , such things are not probably inevitable . New president of the Red Sox baseball operation takes a Craig Kimbrel 9 times of mission of Boston , the team which in order to give a big impetus to the bullpen , since taking over , shook his first job . The cost , however , was very sudden .

PROGRAM-ID. SAMPLE. 000030 AUTHOR. CAMERON UNIT [–BLINK–] End Transmission.

Damon to Manny to the Other Cutoff Man and back
10 years ago

I’m glad I read this right to the end.

Only Glove, No Love
10 years ago

I wish I could thank you enough for this but there are not enough thanks in the world.

Dave Cameron to Eno Sarris to COBOL and Back... says:
10 years ago

00101001010010101110101001010
100101 01010010111110101001010
0110100101001

[BLINK] Emotional response reciprocated carbon unit

01001100100101 End Transmission 001001001110110110100101