Padres Get a Haul for Craig Kimbrel
When you give Dave Dombrowski a loaded farm system and a mandate to win, something like this is probably inevitable. The Red Sox new President of Baseball Operations swung his first deal since taking over, bringing Craig Kimbrel to Boston to assume ninth inning duties and give the team a big boost in the bullpen. The cost, however, was quite steep.
To land Kimbrel, Dombrowksi parted with outfielder Manny Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, second baseman Carlos Asuaje, and left-handed pitcher Logan Allen, which is a pretty remarkable group of prospects to acquire for any player, much less a relief pitcher. Back in August, not too terribly long before the Braves hired him away from us, Kiley McDaniel rated Margot as the #19 prospect in all of baseball, putting a 60 FV grade on him, which put him in the tier of guys that ran from #7 to #20. For context, he ranked Dansby Swanson, who just went #1 overall in this summer’s draft, at #24, with a 55 FV.
From my perspective, Margot for Kimbrel alone would have been a deal worth making for the Padres, but in addition, they’re also getting Javier Guerra, who got upgraded to a 50 FV prospect in that same mid-season update. For context, 50 FV prospects ranked from #80 to #142 last year, so that pegs him as a back-end Top 100 prospect, also a valuable asset. Asuaje got a 40 FV grade and looks more like a part-time player than an everyday guy, but middle infielders who hold their own in AA aren’t nothing. And while Allen didn’t appear on Kiley’s Red Sox list last year or in the mid-season update, Baseball America’s Ben Badler tweeted this out tonight.
And Logan Allen's talent level is commensurate with a second or third-round pick. I know a lot of good scouts who liked that pick by Boston.
— Ben Badler (@BenBadler) November 14, 2015
So that’s a Top 25 prospect, a Top 100 prospect, a guy with 2nd-3rd round ability, and a depth piece with enough upside to be kinda interesting. That is a remarkable return for a reliever, and in my view, quite a bit more than what the Angels gave up to acquire Andrelton Simmons yesterday. Not that the Red Sox needed a young shortstop, but the fact that the Padres got more for a one inning reliever — even a really great one — than the Braves got for a 25 year old above average shortstop is pretty surprising to me.
Of course, we just saw the Royals bullpen their way to the World Series two years in a row, and Jeff just provided some evidence the other day that elite relief aces may bring more value to a team than just their own run prevention abilities would suggest. Kimbrel isn’t a rental, since he’s under contract through 2017, with an option for 2018 as well, so this isn’t necessarily just a win-now move. And the Red Sox have a great farm system, with elite young talents at both SS and CF already in the majors, so Margot and Guerra were likely trade bait at some point.
But this is a very high price to pay for a reliever. Kimbrel’s awesome, and we may very well be selling elite relievers short on their overall value, but Kimbrel didn’t fix the Padres problems by himself, and the Red Sox will have more work to do this winter, and now have fewer chips with which to do it. For A.J. Preller, this is the kind of move that, if he can repeat a few more times, can undo a lot of the damage that was done last winter, and from my perspective, this marks his first big win as a GM.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
For serious, Dave. My first thought was maybe the Padres are eating a bunch of Kimbrel’s contract, but that’s not the case, right? Well done by the clergymen.
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DATE-WRITTEN — 13/11/2015.(000041 000042*)
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If you give the farm system and authority , which is filled to win the Dave Dombrowski , such things are not probably inevitable . New president of the Red Sox baseball operation takes a Craig Kimbrel 9 times of mission of Boston , the team which in order to give a big impetus to the bullpen , since taking over , shook his first job . The cost , however , was very sudden .
PROGRAM-ID. SAMPLE. 000030 AUTHOR. CAMERON UNIT [–BLINK–] End Transmission.
I’m glad I read this right to the end.
I wish I could thank you enough for this but there are not enough thanks in the world.
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[BLINK] Emotional response reciprocated carbon unit
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This trade leaves Bogaerts, Betts, Rodriguez, Moncada, Benintendi, Espinoza, Kopech, Devers untouched. Dombrowski also said tonight that this would be the only big trade of the winter and the Red Sox will be signing an ace. Sox system is loaded, slight overpay, but no one will care come October.
LOL that’s what you guys said a year ago
Yes, especially fangraphs, having the Red Sox as the big projected WAR leader throughout the offseason.
Red Sox will sign Price or Greinke now and be projected #1 or #2 going into 2016.
Boston fans are still lying to themselves about not giving up in 2004, and on every season since then. Much fun to watch those fair-weather fans!
I have seen a of trolling regarding 2004, but I have to say this is a unique brand.
If there are any random fairweather fans reading Fangraphs right now, welp, you have been owned.
Greinke will be a Dodger or a Giant next year.
Or 2007, and 2013? Hating much?
And the Mariner’s are going to win the WS in 2016…just like we were suppose to in 2015. So everyone should just bow down now.
No one is going to care come October because people don’t care about non-playoff teams come October.
Time to start the “Best team ever” headlines in Boston, again.
Did you not notice we were on a 101 win pace since July without a closer, setup man, and rookie
Some teams were on pace for 162 win seasons for a week or more last year!
When Boston comes in 4th place this year, will they run David Ortiz out of town and start reminding people that he tested positive for Steroids in 2003 and that he won’t make it into the hall of fame?
Some commenters make false equivalences between 1 game samples and 2 month samples!
When your team is way out of it and sucks other teams start resting their good players against you and playing their AAA september call ups against you, then you can win a few more than you deserve and look much better in August and Spetember. happens every year!
I believe the Sox will win 101 games next year, if Jackie Bradley continues to hit .294/.366/.613/.980.
I don’t believe guys with a career .816 OPS in AAA are going to have an .800 OPS in the Majors, let alone .980.
From the start of July until the end of the season, they were 42-41. That’s an 82 win pace.
Maybe you meant from the END of July. That makes more sense. In that stretch, they were 32-26 for an 89 win pace. Huh. Nope. Still comes up short.
Oh I get it, you must have included the two wins at the end of July and then removed the last four games of the season because they don’t really count. Now we’re getting somewhere! That gives them a record of 34-22 for… a 98 win pace.
I think maybe you were thinking of a different team.
It is sort of inevitable that people talk about winning the offseason. After all, there’s no baseball to talk about, so all a baseball fan (and the writers) can do is grade their offseason moves.
But all fairly intelligent fans realize it is meaningless. There’s virtually no correlation (as far as I know) for the teams that “win” the offseason doing well in the actual season.
Same goes for “on paper.” Look at last year: the Washington Nationals won the World Series before the season started.
Grading offseason moves is nothing more than a diversion that helps gets us baseball fans through the long, cold winter.
Massive overpay, this was equal or more than what Sox paid for Adrian Gonzalez, except they paid for a 150 game 1B instead of a 60IP Proven Closer(TM).
Pretty sure every Sox fan wish they had Anthony Rizzo back right about now.
Interesting. A lot of Nats fans would trade Rizzo for Dombrowski. The grass is always greener on the other side.
That’s Mike Rizzo, I am talking about 5.5 WAR stud 1B on a super cheap contract Anthony Rizzo http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3473&position=1B
The difference is that, I think, the Red Sox were confident they were giving up a good player in Rizzo and it was the cost to get Gonzalez. While I agree that this was somewhat of an overpay, these guys are all (except Asuaje) far enough away from the majors that we really don’t know what we gave up.
I am also wondering, as I’ve read it again and again, why the acquisition of Gonzalez is always used as an example of a bad trade. Yeah, we traded Rizzo to get him, but AG was good with the Red Sox (6.9 WAR his one full year) and has been good since. I am pretty sure that trade designed to rid ourselves of Crawford and Beckett’s contracts does not happen without Gonzalez in there.
It’s because they gave up an asset (Rizzo) who turned out to be as good as or better than they guy they traded for, at a tiny fraction of the price. Additionally, the player they passed on signing in order to get Gonzalez on the roster (Adrian Beltre) turned into the most cost effective big ticket FA pickup in recent history.
Most deals don’t work out this badly, and people who didn’t like the deal from the start (myself included) aren’t really any smarter than anyone else because if it, but that set of transactions was an abject disaster for Boston.
If the Red Sox “were confident they were giving up a good player in Rizzio” then it was a near-inexcusable decision. If either Rizzo or Kelly turned into above average major leaguers then there were worth substantially more than Adrian Gonzalez on a market value contract.
Hindsight 20/20 much. Trolls be trolling.
Don’t forget Swihart and Bradley.
I agree that this is a great move for the Padres, but given that Boston has shortstop and center field pretty much occupied for the next 4+ years, I don’t think this is a terrible deal by Dombrowski. Perhaps he could’ve gotten more overall talent with this same group from somewhere else, but the bullpen was a priority, and this certainly made the 2016 team better. One of those moves where the prospects seem like they’re worth more to other teams than the dealing team.
Giving up assets just because you have them is not a good idea.
You don’t get awards for having lots of minor league assets, or not ones that matter
You get awards for getting fair value for your assets, Not squandering them to get a Proven Closer(TM).
Had this trade been for Donaldson, nobody would have even bothered to complain.
except for whoever gave up Donaldson for this assortment of B prospects
Why ever have a minor league system them, trade them all for aging veterans, wooo
Sometimes it is a good idea. Remember, transactions do not happen in a vacuum. A 40-man roster only holds so many spots. Minor league players only have so many options. The MLB roster only holds so many players. So, at some tipping point, these assets have fluctuating values relative to the team that controls them. The Red Sox have only so many spots for advancing prospects. Cashing them into proven commodities certainly makes sense even if the vacuum valuation doesn’t align. Saying, “well the Padres ripped off Boston because they got wayyy more surplus value” is a bit narrow. There is also something to be said for filling needs and adding wins along the present-value curve. I’m not defending the trade as much as I am criticizing this comments (that somehow has over +100 feedback).
Hard to believe that the Pirates would get anything approaching that for Melancon, and I’m Pirates fan. Kimbrel’s significantly better than any other relief pitcher, yes, but I have to think that you would improve your team more by going after somebody in the next tier and using the leftover talent to upgrade something like the rotation or just get an additional reliever. Remember that the Royals bullpen is built as much on depth as on top-end talent, and one of Dombrowski’s major failings in Detroit was that he went after the top name in closer (Nathan), but left the rest of the bullpen shallow and subpar.
wtf?
Yeah, seriously?
Among relievers, Kimbrel was 18th in FIP and 26th in WAR last year, but apparently you and DD stopped following him after his 2012 season.
Kimbrel was one of if not the best relief pitcher in baseball every year of his career until this past year, when he was merely good. Of course relief pitchers always have fairly small sample sizes. Steamer projects him as the 5th best relief pitcher next season by FIP. Just looking at 2015 is dumber than just looking at everything but 2015.
A lot more control over a better closer. ‘Nuff said.
The “we don’t need this guy because he’s blocked at the MLB level” is predicated on two very shaky assumptions:
1) Prospects always pan out the way we hope.
2) Players never get injured.
Let’s check back in a few years and see how this worked out.
So if we check back in a few years and Kimbrel decided to retire to join a Beatles cover band, we should say it was a bad trade on the Red Sox’s part? Or if Kimbrel gains superpowers from radioactive waste and he becomes the first pitcher in history to pitch every single inning for a team’s entire year with zero runs allowed, then we should say it was a bad trade on the Padres’ part?
You have awful, awful logic.
Look, from a process-based standpoint the move is already a disaster (Red Sox gave up assets worth more than they received back). What I’m saying is that, in addition to it being terrible from a process standpoint, from a results standpoint it’s possible for it to be EVEN MORE OF A DISASTER due to the downside risk of actually needing these assets later on due to injury/regression from the guys “blocking” them.
If Theo were still here, he would be working his “Hot Stove and Hot Rocks” network and would have known that Kimbrel was one foot out the door, ready to cover Abbey Road start to finish. Who’s John, who’s Paul? I’d guess Gammons, the more sentimental one, is Paul, and Kimbrel, the fiery one, is John. Long story short, this is a good/bad deal because I feel that these prospects are over/under valued.
Margot is blocked by a 22yo perennial allstar and has shown little other than IFH. Guerra is blocked by a 23 yo future star, Logan Allen hasn’t had TJ and is 18 if. Asuaje had no impact on this team. We acquired something ivaluable. Which leaves us the pieces to get a starter, or the money to do so.
Sox were on a 101 win pace since July with no koji, no taz, and youngings apart from Ortiz. I am ecstatic with this.
All those players have a ways to go, and none of the are sure things, with only MM and Guerra being able to be above average major leaguers, only if they can fix their hig/power tools with they both have serious problems doing, age advanced or not. Smart move, if they flop next year and we can’t get anything for them this woulda looked like a great trade
tell me more about how you’re not one of those guys in the SOSH forms crying about how the season is over in June, every year
Logan Allen hasn’t had tommy john yet? dude’s missin out, man
They went 42-40 since July first… The only way that is a 101 win pace is if the season was 197 games long.
This is the problem with arbitrary sampling points, right?
Beyond that, the Red Sox were 32-26 after July 31st.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/games/standings.cgi?year=2015&month=7&day=31&submit=Submit+Date
Isn’t that more like an 89 game pace?
And that’s before you consider that their 46-58 record up to July 31st was a 72 game pace…
By pythag%, pre-/post- paces were 70.3 and 97.2. Still not sure where anyone is coming up with 101. Or why it would be meaningful even if it was supported.
Again, nobody is arguing against reading prospects, they’re arguing against the return they got for those prospects
See what I did here guys? I simultaneously raised the Kimbrel price for the Red Sox while also increasing the trade value for Andrew Miller. If Kimbrel could fetch that haul at his salary, imagine would I could theoretically get for Miller.
Might be a good value to estimate, anyone?
If Boston had offered just Margot and the depth piece for Miller, Cashman would have jizzed his pants and accepted, Boston would have held onto to two of the four options they moved, and the Sox would have gotten the pitcher than the one they acquired.
Pretty amusing stuff, actually.
the *better* pitcher than the one they acquired. IE: Miller >> Kimbrel.
The odds of Cashman trading his second best reliever to his hated rival are so insignificant as to not be worth discussing
Cashman would only make that trade if it was a significant overpay, which is what Joe D laid out.
So Cashman offered Mateo in a package of prospects for Kimbrel and was rejected, despite having Betances and Miller in the pen. Why would he trade Miller with nobody on the FA market to replace him? He is looking to add and not subtract unless he is worried about Millers elbow. How does strengthening the farm system at the expense of winning in 2016 possibly help the Yankees? Red Sox would be delighted if they do trade Miller out of the division for prospects
One thing I’ll say, there is no way Theo or Ben would have ever made this deal. I don’t think they would have even considered it.
Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Or just an observation?
I guess that depends on who you ask. Right now its just an observation that going forward, this Red Sox team will be run very differently from the way they’ve been run the last 12 years.
As much as Kimbrel will help Boston’s terrible bullpen, this seems like a poor use of resources to me.
Never, ever,ever pay for a Proven Closer(TM)
Yeah. Theo/Ben’s MO for relievers was shop in the bargain (hell even the scrapheap). This is paying sticker price for the brand name.
This is when I have to remind you that all this (accurate) bluster against the “proven closer” doesn’t apply when you’re discussing a potential HOF closer. Or was all that talk of Mariano Rivera being a vital piece of Yankee success a bunch of nonsense and therefore the rest of the baseball world deserves a huge apology? Hmm?
For the record, I’m going with “people understood exactly how valuable Rivera was and the garbage being thrown around now with this trade is a bunch of loser trolling”.
Well Mariano Rivera also gave up 6 HR in his last season, so that’s one point of similarity to Kimbrel. Mariano was consistently great, while Kimbrel has been in a slow but steady decline for years, so not similar.
Joel Hanrahan?
Hey, remember me?
Andrew Bailey was not being paid $12 million/year.
Man I’m sure the Boston fans who wouldn’t give up anyone for Cole Hamels are losing their minds right now
IIRC those rumors correctly, there were a whole lot of numbskulls calling the Red Sox prospect huggers for not giving up Bogaerts/Betts or Swihart for Hamels, which was entirely correct on their part.
I don’t think we can say with certainty yet trading for Hamels would have been dumb. Hamels could continue to be awesome, while Bogaerts could go back to struggling. And Swihart is far, far, far from a sure bet to be even average yet.
yeah swihart for hamels might have been a good move.
Congrats Mr. Nincompoop, this is when I remind you that everyone was calling for Boston to give up either Betts (now possible a top 10 value piece in all of baseball) or Swihart (the intended starting catcher for the team for the near future who ended up being the starter in the present too).
Either piece on his own was worth more than Hamels, and meanwhile the demand was that Boston would have to give up MORE on top of either or. Or both pieces.
Boston fans hated the idea because they knew both pieces had a place on the MLB team AND each alone was more valuable. You don’t fill a hole (keeping in mind that Hamels was far from sure from being an AL East ace anyways) by creating another.
Boston fans were very happy to consider sizable packages built around pretty much anyone else. Phillie fans were the ones who refused to consider any kind of alternative package. Go crawl back into a hole now, Mr. Gross Distorter of Recent History.
If the Red Sox add an ace pitcher and another mid-rotation guy and roar into the post-season no one will care, but right now I have to say that this is wayyyyyyy too much to give up for an RP – even one as great as Kimbrel
We will care 3 years from now, when Boston is stuck paying millions to Ramirez, Sandoval, and whatever then aging starting pitcher they decide to sign, and Margot is appearing in all stars every year in a Padre uniform. Granted, Mookie Betts is likely to play in multiple all star games too, but why have 1 all star outfielder when you could have 2?
You are awfully sure of this.
So when Boston holds on to top prospects, they get mocked for treating those prospects like sure future All Stars (even though that isn’t even true). And when Boston trades away a top prospect to get a terrific needed piece, they get mocked for giving away a sure future All Star.
I think the real truth is that talking about Boston turns many, many people into loser trolls who need to get a life.
I never mocked Boston for hanging onto their prospects.
really really really really really really really really really don’t like this
too much to give up for a reliever
why not give up less and get like, storen
i do not like this at all
giving up good prospects just because you have depth is stupid
i do not like it
really really don’t
i do not like this at all
i do not like it
I do not like it, Sam-I-Am.
Maybe Preller isn’t so bad as everyone thinks he is. There’s no question that the Padres were lacking in attention, hype, and performance for the past several years. In his first year, he swung big trades for high-profile players, trading most of the blue-chips in his relatively thin farm system. Upton and Kennedy are now FA’s with a Qualifying Offer draft-pick tied to them, so Preller now has two 1.5-round picks coming his way, plus the massive haul he scored for Kimbrel. The Padres may live to regret the Kemp trade and are wishing they’d held onto Cameron Maybin, but seriously, no one saw his turnaround likely.
No one in SD is wishing the Padres held onto Maybin.
Don’t think anyone misses an injury prone 1 win outfielder making $8M.
Yeah, do you think the people calling for Preller’s head know that Upton had 60% more WAR in half of Maybin’s playing time?
What people in San Diego think Preller is, is a liar. Since the beginning of the offseason and going into the GM meetings he said in multiple interviews that the Padres were retooling to contend in 2016. Now he trades the entire backend of his pen, a pen that had a really bad year in 2015 and has no replacements for Benoit or Kimbrel, for prospects that won’t be able to help the team before 2017 if ever. If you are going into rebuild mode just be honest and tell fans that we are breaking down the team in order to compete in 2018-2019. The Kemp trade was just plain stupid. 30 year old players decline. Even Kemp.
People who thought Preller was based were by and large just generic Internet Prospect Huggers
Based?
A haul of nothing lmao.
3 of these guys are nobodies, and Margot is a Double A SS with no power. Reminder that we got the best closer in baseball.
What REALLY worries me is if he’ll be the same as Gagne, Melancon, Hanrahan, Mujica, etc.
Margot is a CF
Kimbrel is not the best closer in baseball. You have to close a bunch of games successfully to be the best closer in baseball. Let me put it this way… wade davis won a world series and he wasn’t even supposed to be the closer. He also had a .78 whip and a 444 era+.
Best closer i baseball is a big statement considering there are many many better closers out there, especially considering if Davis was the closer all year he’d have had 50 saves… In the american league.
The counter is that the Royals gave up highly regarded Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi (who had an excellent year) for Wade Davis and Jamie Shields.
The counter to that counter is that the Royals just went to back to back World Series and Wil Myers got traded again.
@SGB Your logic applied elsewhere: The Phillies won a World Series under Ruben Amaro -> Ruben Amaro is a good GM.
Did I ever tell you about the time I shat my pants?
If Ruben Amaro is a good GM, then I pray that I never say a bad one.
…RAJ took over in 2009.
Pat Gillick, meanwhile, was a great GM.
You apparently didn’t read the article, where Mr. Cameron explains in depth why the Padres did in fact get a haul.
Gagne was awful before and after he juiced. Not a valid comparison. But “validity” is not a component of your post, so nevermind.
whoa. Margot is a beaut. A red sox prospect i actually liked. Arguably their best.
for a while there it looked like he may have been rushed to AA but after some adjustments he ripped off a 160wrc+ over his last 20gms there….which is ridiculous for any 20yr old in AA….let alone a speedy defensive CF.
If he picks up next year where he left off this year, i wouldn’t be shocked to see him end up earning more WAR than Kimbrel even as soon as next year. Is he blocked in SD next year, or would he have a chance at a callup if he ripped it up the first month or two in AA/AAA?
crazy.
There are zero positions blocked in SD right now. One could argue that Matt Kemp has RF locked down but i wouldn’t call that a talent block, it’s more of a “we have no where else to put him” block.
Are you seriously going to even TRY to post stats for that small of a sample size in AA?
He’s got a good amount of Mookieness in him, that’s for sure. If he keeps up his development I’m sure the Padres could shift Wil Myers to a corner OF spot and let Margot get going as their everyday CF.
Myers IMO, more likely to play 1B where reports on his defense range from quite good-to border line gold glove caliber…..plus, they do have Kemp already…..more depth in corner outfield options than 1B
yeah i’m thinking if margot was held back one level at this age same as Mookie was the numbers might be looking très similar and the comparisons would be rampant.
The thing is, ARL has to be looked at differently for IFAs than for drafted players.
This is Margot’s third year in the states, playing baseball full time. Mookie’s equivalent is his 2014.
Margot is a poor mans Mookie. A very poor man. Go look at their AA stats. Mookie was 6 months older, not neglible, but I doubt it accounts for 80+ points of BA, more than 120 points of OBP and 130+ points of slugging. At the same level. At very nearly the same age. Add into the mix Mookie’s ELITE athleticism, as evidenced by his ability excel defensively so soon after a position change and compete in another professional sport (granted its bowling), and the comparison begins to unravel. Mookie and Margot are both undersized center fielders That excel defensively and who steal bases. The similarities end there. Mookie has always displayed more power and greater plate discipline at every level, including the bigs. Margot is a nice little player who may surprise me and become a first division regular, but unless he learns to take a walk and/or hit for considerably more pop, color me doubtful.
i don’t think you give enough credit to the fact margot has been younger at every level (except in A-, where he was much better than mook), or to the fact that he’s been posting .150-.160iso at each stop.
I’m not dismissing Margot’s chances of becoming a solid ML regular. I certainly think he has that potential but I also think that’s his ceiling, barring a significant increase in his ability to control the strike zone and/or drive the ball with authority. Mookie, at essentially the same age and level, showed the potential to be a perennial all-star. Mookie’s minor league numbers were video game borderline ridiculous. Margot’s numbers are solid but unspectacular, even given their respective ages.
I just think the Mookie/Margot comparisons are lazy thinking. They are both undersized, right handed hitting, speedy center fielders with good gloves. A closer look at the numbers tells us that beyond that they’re really nothing alike.
Manny Margot has had platoon issues since entering full-season ball. He is a fantastic prospect, unquestionably the best prospect and 2nd best player in the deal. But there is no argument that he was #1 in the Sox system. He was about to be ranked 7th in BA’s upcoming Red Sox top 30.
meh. i put him up against any of them. his performance relative to age and level is as good as any of them, as is his athleticism.
Oh man, I’m so going to trade Chapman now!
What goes around comes around
Are you saying that Craig Kimbrel and Heathcliff Slocumb belong in the same discussion? Woof.
Bj upton leaves tampa for a huge contract in Atl.
So then, Rays get Will Myers and Odorizzi for Shields and Wade Davis -( who this year was much better than Kimbrel)
Now both BJ Upton and Will Myers AND James Shields play for the padres and Kimbrel is gone.
At least the braves got Quinentin in that trade, so when Greinke goes to the nationals or miami they can have a guy maul him on the mound.
Also san diego… pretty sure it means “a whale’s vagina.”
This is not a good trade for Boston in the slightest. Not only because of the prospect cost, but because I’m afraid Kimbrel will fall off the map at any time. Kimbrel arguably peaked in 2012 and has been declining ever since. In that span his WAR has dropped have it’s value, he’s lost the ability to strand baserunners by over 12%, and his FIP had increased almost 2 full points. His home run rate also had a big jump from this year to last year, which is especially concerning because he has only played in pitcher friendly parks at this point. And while his 2014 career low HR/9 marks was likely a bit of a fluke seeing as it came with an abnormally low GB rate, it’s still concerning to see him approach whole numbers in the HR/9 category.
Kimbrel is still one of the top closes in baseball. It’s a position the Red Sox won’t have to worry about for the next 2-3 years. Nobody knows who Margot and Guerra are right now, and we may never know. They are far from a sure thing.
Nobody had Mookie Betts as a top prospect until he started raking in the minors. You just never know with prospects. Always take the sure thing.
Now I agree that the Red Sox should have used those “valuable” chips toward getting an ace rather than a closer, but nobody will know if it’s a good deal or a bad deal until we see what these prospects become. They are years away. Dombrowski doesn’t have years to get it done in Boston. He either wins soon or he won’t be around to see those prospects develop anyway.
Take the sure thing in Position player or 200IP SPs, not a 60IP Proven Closer(TM).
It’s true you never know with prospects. But we are seeing a surge in teams building around prospects and it hasn’t failed anyone yet. The Cubs, Giants, Cardinals, Mets, Astros, Royals, and Pirates all have been using similar strategy and have had recent postseasons success. And I guarantee you if even just 1 prospect sent to San Diego reaches his potential, he will provide more value the Friars over 6 years a minimum/arb than Kimbrel will in 3 years at 11 million. An elite reliever might give you a 3 war in his best season. Most of time, to be considered the best of his position a closer simply has to put up 1 win on a season. In short, relief pitchers are vastly overrated. The success the Royals have had with their bullpen has caused everyone to overthink everything, and they’re ignoring how the Royals built their bullpen. They utilized great coaching/scouting (Wade Davis, Luke Hochevar, Ryan Madson) with great drafting (Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera) to build their elite bullpen. They did NOT gut the farm or suck up the payroll to make their pen what it was. But because of their success, teams are overpaying for relievers. Boston was able to snag Eduardo Rodriguez so that Baltimore could have 2 months of Andrew Miller, and now E-rod is figured into being a big piece for the future of their rotation. This Kimbrel trade is just the latest example.
If Kimbrel performs how we expect, that’s gonna be 6-8 WAR over three years. I would bet a fair amount that only one guy from that trade surpasses that WAR value in their careers. It takes an average major leaguer about 4 years to get that. To bet on anyone in this trade becoming an average major leaguer is putting a lot of stock in them. There is certainty with Kimbrel that cannot be had with those prospects right now.
Winston, Key word “average” player. Margot and Guerra are projected to be much better than average players. That’s why they’re ranked so high.
Also, I don’t know how easily we can expect Kimbrel to be worth 6-8 WAR over the next three years. It could be, but the guy’s got a downward trend going in almost every stat category (except K/9, which has stayed steady for the last three years). I wouldn’t bet on him being worth 2 WAR per 60 IP season.
What is the likelihood that this is the closer for the Red Sox at the end of the 2017 season? 50%? Less?
I don’t see how this makes the club substantially better over the next couple of seasons, and for what it cost them, it certainly should have.
You never know with relievers either. The guy you don’t have to worry about can become a replacement level nothing at any second. As you would think Red Sox fans would know, re: Bard, Foulke, Gagne, Bailey, Hanrahan, Kim, etc, etc, etc.
I think people talking about IP are missing the point. 60 IP of Atlanta Craig Kimbrel is worth a fortune, if you knew that was what you were getting. But relievers are just way less predictable than other positions, both in terms of stars collapsing and in terms of getting great performance from table scraps. There’s no such thing as a sure thing.
“Atlanta kimbrel” is a 2 or 3 win player. Not sure that’s worth a”fortune” in baseball terms.
Uh, Foulke was pretty damn excellent for his first year, which fortunately was 2004. Though his career after that proves your main point.
Kimbrel fWAR by year
2011 3.2
2012 3.3
2013 2.2
2014 2.2
2015 1.5
Are you sure the Sox won’t be worrying about the closer position anytime soon?
If there is one thing Dave D knows, it’s how to put together a top notch bullpen!
Might need a /s given all the Detriot bullpen issues the last couple of playoff runs.
Dat’s da joke.
Wooooooosh
I have been trying to understand the Margot hype, but I am still not sure what I am missing. My (probably meaningless) analysis is that Margot will lack the OBP to be a noteworthy leadoff hitter, he will lack the power to be a noteworthy slugger, and there is a very good chance he is more similar to Peter Bourjos than he ever will be to Kenny Lofton. But who knows.
The Red Sox can easily replace any of the prospects other than Margot. Margot was their second best OF prospect (after Benintendi) and third best position player prospect (after Devers and Benintendi). But with Bradley, Castillo, Betts and Benintendi, the Red Sox should be fine as far as outfielders go.
JBJ and Castillo are massive question marks, and Benintendi has a long way to go. (Like, 4 more years to go.) If they were smart they would have kept Margot and signed Jason Heyward.
Benintendi has 4 more years to go??? If he doesn’t debut next September, it’ll be 2017
Unless you want him to completely skip double A and triple A, Benintendi wont be ready until at least 2019. If they want him to get a full season at A, AA, and AAA, like they should, that’s his ETA.
@Eric
you want (arguably) the most advanced college hitter in the draft to spend four full years in the minors? yikes.
Milton, Benny will be here in a year and change. Margot is not what he’s hyped up to be, JBJ, Margot are much likelier to be proven ml players. Benny will be up here soon. Ppl are overreacting, the other posters are right. It might be a little much but these guys are doing NOTHING for us in 4 to 6 years.
Calling the guy Benny is a good sign you are deluding yourself into thinking things such as Papi is a clean career player, Nomar was a bad guy that deserved to be run out of town, and that the prospects you raved about earlier in the month are now garbage. This is fun to watch from over here 🙂
Margot is still a massive question mark with a long way to go also.
Benintendi (who is the same age as Margot) could easily finish next year at AAA. He was fantastic in his debut. He had more walks than strikeouts, with excellent power and contact skills. Outfielders who hit fairly well and play great defense are easier to find than outfielders who are great hitters and play defense fairly well. Benintendi will make Red Sox fans forget about Margot.
Meanwhile the Red Sox have a fantastic reliever whom they control for 3 seasons. And there is nothing stopping them from also signing Jason Heyward or Alex Gordon.
Margot was actually expected to be ready in 2017 if not late 2016. You can’t really compare Margot to Benintendi; they’re different players with different skill sets. Margot is a more well rounded player whereas Benintendi is a offensive first player. I like both players, but Benintendi is definitely more of a “Boston” player. Margot fits the mode of an NL West player. Manuel is above average in all categories (however his worst tool being power) but he has contact hitting, speed, and defense. He’s a Lorenzo Cain type of player. Probably a bit of an exaggeration, but that’s his mold in my opinion, only slightly worse defensively.
margot crushed AA his last month there. I don’t think he has a long way to go.
Margot crushed AA with his whopping 745 OPS?
You’re right. It’s probably meaningless.
Whoa whoa. MM was like 270/315/415 in double a with strikeout problems and inability to hit high velocities as well as hard breaking stuff. Sorry, some of us pay attention to Bosox prospects instead of spewing nonsense about the Sox like some ppl..
Damasa. Margot started out hot too, then catered for 3 months…. sounds the exciting kind of player to have. Right now Mookie and JBJ are better in the field and at the plate. if you wanna talk about speed Mookie can steal bases, MM gets caught 15 times a year by single a and AA catchers. Also has a noodle arm
Remember when you all cursed JBJ and wanted him gone, and now that he had a good 6 weeks you are at his knees.
Can’t wait to see him batting 9th at a rate of .198 like always. Maybe he just got some of Big Papi’s “vitamins” to fuel his little run there? It’s possible.
I know they don’t pay minor leaguers much, but it’s ridiculous a guy has to cater for 3 months while playing ball full time.
Strikeout problems?
Hahahahahhaa
Bourjos has been a 4WAR player in pro-rated playing time to a full season.
Yeah, but Bourjos is the most controversial case in WAR-based analysis. With a sub-.300 OBP you really need to buy into the defensive metrics to slap a 3 WAR on him.
How does an elite closer help a team that finished in last? Not sure I agree with the timing, the Red Sox could have used a year or 2 of a quick rebuild and come back strong, once the jays, Orioles and probably rays regress
Boston posted a strong finish to the season, which ironically seemed to begin as soon as Mr. Farrell contracted cancer. They nearly finished at .500 and in 3rd place. With Betts and Bogaerts hopefully taking steps forward, and a full year of Rodriguez and Swihart should already have put Boston into contention talks. The bullpen was the major thing holding them back last year. This trade certainly helps that aspect, although I still am not a fan of sacrificing the future for it.
i see what you’re getting at, but when you have the resources boston does, there’s really no reason to “rebuild”. then again, it all comes back to the whole “whose window” concept article…
it is a bit strange that a team that finished last twice in a row would be trading prospects, true enough.
The Red Sox have put themselves into a very weird, in-between place with the moves from last offseason. Right now, they probably couldn’t get anyone to take Hanley, Sandoval or Porcello off their hands without throwing in lots of cash and/or prospects. So they’re probably hoping and praying for these three to at least bounce back to their prior levels so they’d have a chance to dump them.
BUT, if those guys DO bounce back, it could add about 10 wins for the Red Sox vs. the -2 WAR they got from them last year. At which point, they’re no longer rebuilding but in the race for the AL East and/or wild card.
At least with getting Kimbrel, they’ve gotten someone who won’t be creating a logjam the way that the Hanley/Sandoval combo did last offseason. Might as well help the team for 2016 if they’re on the bubble for contention.
Porcello is fine. He just had bad luck. His peripherals don’t indicate last season was anything to be concerned about. He’ll be the same 2-3 win pitcher he always was next season.
yeah there’s a chance they can get back into contention short term….but a lot if things have to go right and now they have to worry about key pieces like Ort and Koji collapsing too.
but man i’d have been tempted to sell the vets – buchhotlz miley tazawa, and even rent out Ort and Koji – and do a quick rebuild for 3yrs from now when betts/bogaerts are prime and the current crop of 20yr olds are breaking through.
2-3 years from now? bogaerts only has 4 years of control left. what exactly would they be rebuilding for? they needed to ‘go for it’ by 2017. cherington tried to force the window open last year with the big signings, now they have no choice but to get the last pieces of the jigsaw to get over the line. they got the bullpen reinforcement, now they need the ace.
Bc Damasa, we have a very large and very deep and very awesome farm system. Sorry the Jays dont
The Blue Jays finished 22(!) games out of 1st place in the season before the debacle of an offseason with the Marlins and RA Dickey trades
Ramirez and Sandoval even making their way back to being average players nets the Sox +8wins over last year. The team isn’t nearly as bad as they showed last year
i’m not sure i’d agree with the “everything went bad last year” argument. lots of things went well.
That was a great opening sentence, Mr. Cameron. A fun read, and thank you for the detailed info on the players heading to the Friars.
Wow, this is what you get when you hire someone like Dinosaur Dave to run your team. What a joke of a trade.
Not to mention, you have to figure this package could have at least got the Reds interested for Chapman, rather than Kimbrel whose best days are obviously behind him.
You realize that Kimbrel is a couple months younger than Chapman, right?
The statement holds true.
Regardless of any talent evaluation, Kimbrel is under contract for 3 more years, Chapman will be a free agent after the season.
It’s not about age or contract. Kimbrel’s days of being an elite closer are behind him, and everyone knows it other than apparently Dombrowski. I still have no idea why he was ever hired.
Chapman was worth 2.5 fWAR and Kimbrel was worth 1.5 fWAR in 2015.
Kimbrel is on a pronounced downwards trend. Chapman is not.
Kimbrels WAR the two previous seasons was 2.2.
The difference between 2.2 WAR and 1.5 WAR (especially for a reliever) is not all that pronounced. It could be attributed to something as simple as a jump in HR/FB (13.6% last year vs 7.9% career)
His K% was pretty much the same (36% vs 38%), as was his Hard contact (25.6% vs 26.7%) and his LD% was actually down (19.5% vs 23.3%). He also increased his GB% (46.1% vs 41.4%).
Seems pretty specious to say he is on a pronounced downward trend because of a small drop in WAR one year.
You guys are hilarious. Think for yourselves when it comes to prospects for once. Margot’s a great asset, but the other prospects don’t hold much value. Javy Guerra is a long way from contributing to a major league club. Even when he reaches the show, he’s likely to be a defensive sub. He gets his high rank because he just hit 15 HR’s in A-ball at 19 as a SS, but he doesn’t project to have that kind of power in the long run. In my opinion, everyone is WAY too high on him. The other guys are complete throw-ins. Asuaje is 24 years old and is in AA. Logan Allen’s almost as raw as they come. He’s at least four years away from contributing to a major league club if he even gets there. The Padres got a decent haul because they got Margot, but he’s the only good player they got.
You realize the Sox also have to pay Kimbrel $12M a year to pitch only 60 innings, and that he’s no longer an elite closer, having been in a 4 year decline?
Think for yourselves… and the same as me.
This is a bit flabbergasting. But honestly it does not hurt the Red Sox thaaaat much considering their OF and SS depth OF): Betts, JBJ, Castillo, Holt, Craig, Benintendi and SS) Bogaerts, Holt, Marrero. However, what the fuck Dombo? Why not trade Guerra or less straight up for Benoit a little earlier? You would have improved the bullpen for 5 million less a year, and far less in prospects. Then you’d have Margot, Devers, Owens, Johnson, Vazquez, Craig, Asuaje, and Allen Craig to use as trade chips. Coulda done something like Devers, Margot, Vazquez, Owens, Allen Craig and HanRam to the Reds for Votto and Chapman? Paying for a fraction of HanRam’s contract if necessary. Or something along those lines?
your list of OF “depth” there contains 1 young starting mlber, 3 bench players in their late 20s, 1 guy whose career is over, and one great prospect.
OK, I’ll arbitrate on the OF categorization here:
Betts – young starting MLBer…CHECK
JBJ – bench player in late 20’s….NOPE. {correction – possible starter in mid 20’s}
Castillo – bench player in late 20’s….NOPE. {correction – possible starter/4th OF in late 20’s}
Holt – bench player in late 20’s….NOPE. {correction – almost everyday utility guy in late 20’s (like peak Mark DeRosa), but not really part of OF depth}
Craig – guy whose career is over….CHECK. {note: definitely not a trade chip, more of a mild salary dump}
Benintendi – great prospect…CHECK.
well if you want to replace “bench player” with “borderline starter” i won’t fight about it.
Steamer projects them as 1.9, 0.8, and 0.7 WAR players next year, ftr.
Found my new display name.
That 1.9 WAR projection for Jackie is in 122 games. On a per 600 PA basis, JBJ projects as one of the 30 best OFers in MLB. And that’s with a DEF projection which is about 10 runs lower than it should be for someone with a career +15.5 UZR in CF.
I also was thinking they’d have gone after Benoit for a lesser package, given his success with the Tigers. Maybe they just wanted clarity about an elite closer for the ninth with Koji working the 8th. Also, it might have been good to dump the rest of Craig’s contract on the Padres as an offset to Kimbrel’s salary.
But I agree this isn’t going the thwart the depth of talent in the Red Sox farm system. I’d rather strengthen the team by moving prospects than by spending $25 million a year on guys like Zimmerman and Gordon.
As a fed Sox fan I respectfully disagree. I don’t give a crap about what happens to John Henry’s money.
Also, I think Carlos Asuaje is a pretty interesting player. Granted he was a little high for the levels, but he did hit 305/391/542 and 323/398/516 at A-ball and High A respectively. As a 2nd/3rd baseman. With nice walk to k ratios. He may have tanked in AA, but his k to walk rates did not crater. He has a decent amount of upside.
He was 3 or 4 years age advanced and repeating levels…
Fun to see Boston fans DISSING their former prospects a day later. Such fair-weather fans, it’s sometimes sad to watch.
Another day, another hot take in prospect hugging. Yawn.
What don’t you get about spending resources wisely?
Would you pay $20 for a coffee because you only had 20 dollar bills in your wallet?
If that $20 coffee made me witty enough to attract a lanky, beautiful lady from Kansas City or Toronto who just got out of a long relationship and is looking for stability, then yeah. Then together we could sneak into a secret underground dance club where hundreds of dollar bills are strewn all over the carpets.
go home youre drunk
When you can wield luxury tax level (and probably higher) payrolls, you don’t have to worry about min-maxing your roster as if you’re the 2011 Rays. Play to your organizational strengths: if that’s dealing mid-level prospects and taking on all the salary, then that’s what you do.
Nice that fangraphs is allowing as how it really hasn’t gotten the valuations on relief pitchers in general and closers in particular right. It’s reasonable to think that are still important variables missing in the WAR computations for certain positions. I’m glad someone has noticed that there’s a problem. Figuring out the solution will give you guys something to do
It’s interesting to compare how many World Series winners and losers featured elite relievers to the number who didn’t. One of the things I’ve said for a few years is that there is a big difference between the very real benefits of having an elite closer and determining how much and how one should pay for that privilege. Kimbrel’s contract and age is as close as one gets to perfect other than discovering another bona fide 22 year old Kimbrel in spring training.
Despite the difficulties closers have in accumulating WAR compared to starters, Kimbrel is currently #66 in the active pitchers WAR rankings in WAR despite only being in MLB for 6 seasons. To put this in perspective, Kimbrel (66) has 13.4 WAR after six seasons. Stasberg (60) has 14.0 WAR after 6 seasons. Jake Arrieta(53) has 15.0 War after 6 seasons. Chris Sale (21)is the current young pitching stud with 26.2 WAR after 6 seasons. Looking at the past, Mariano Rivera accumulated 17.7 WAR in his first 6 seasons.
In the meantime, the BoSox have decided they might have most of the horses they need to get back to the promised land. The last time they went to the World Series, their bullpen was led by Koji Uehara who had a Kimbrel-like season, compiling the second highest pitcher’s WAR on the staff. Now they have the real Kimbrel. It should be a real relief.
So they had a good closer before the trade?
a very old closer with a history of injury issues and whose high-80s fastball probably can’t get it done for a lot longer
Uehara will be 41 in April. He lost part of 2015 with a fracture of the wrist of his pitching arm. He had one great season as a closer when he took over as closer in mid-season. He has never saved more than 26 games in any year.
Assuming he recovers from the wrist fracture and doesn’t suddenly lose it as 40+ year olds are wont to do in MLB, he’ll likely be a fine set up guy, a role he’s filled well for five seasons.
Kimbrel is overvalued. He’s been declining for years, and he never ever comes in with anyone on base, his situations are all super easy.
Not only did Koji throw 20% more innings that year than Kimbrel throws, but he came in before the 9th inning 27 times, which Kimbrel only did once this year.
Pretty hard to not see this as an over payment. Dombrowski wanted Kimbrel so he paid whatever he had to to get him. This does seem to be his MO over the years. As a Red Sox fan I am thinking the same thing I was thinking when he traded Fister to Washington: If you were willing to trade that(those) player(s) why weren’t you able to get something more valuable in return.
Who would you want right now? Robbie Ray or Doug Fister?. He won that trade. Unfortnately, the Robbie Ray for Shane Greene trade was a loser
So he was smart enough to want Robby Ray, but dumb enough to trade him before he got good, and to give up a great year by Fister in doing it, but getting a terrible year by Shane Greene.
Are you trying to defend Dombrowski? He is a perfectly cromulent GM who still has trouble valuing players.
Yeah, that Cabrera/Willis trade giving up Maybin/Miller et al really sucked for Dave D.
When I saw this trade package yesterday, I thought for sure that there was a player missing. The Red Sox sent out all of this to get Craig Kimbrel AND _________. Except fill-in-the-blank is apparently an actual blank. They gave up all of this for a closer.
I’m reading how a bunch of people think that Craig Crimbell’s best seasons are behind him. Looking at all his peripherals, it seems like they’ve all gotten better, as far as chase percentage, velocity, and contact percentage(which has stayed the same of gotten better since 3 years ago..) do the people that say stuff like “fengraphs” want the Red Sox to fail?
No, it’s basically because of the awful fans like you. Remember that it took the wild card to save your franchise, and that your owner only has the team because bud selig moved a team from canada to washington so that it could happen.
Go back to giving up on your team early, it’s what your fan base knows best, and what we all know you best for. 🙂
You’re adding so much valuable insight to this discussion.
Well, he’s certainly offering insight into his crippling Red Sox anxiety. So sad.
Yankee’s / Jets fan …..LOL
His O-swing% seems to be going down, actually.
and pitch f/x thinks his offspeed pitch changed from a slider in his first four years to a curve the last two years, and grades that curve as a much lesser pitch.
This is clearly a win now move by Dombrowski – but that is what he has to do. Yes, he probably overpaid but it makes zero sense to stockpile prospects if you can’t put a winning team on the pitch – especially in a market like Boston’s. Mixed feelings about this deal but I can understand where Dombrowski is coming from… I suspect he’ll be like a kid in a candy store trading away prospects for the rest of the off season…
This is a shockingly bad trade, probably the worst in several years.
That said: the previous competitor for this title was the Shields trade and that worked out just fine.
So I guess you never know.
But man, Andrew Miller looks like one of the best signings of the last year all of a sudden.
Kemp trade was way worse
This is a massive overpay by the Red Sox and it will look more and more ridiculous as time goes on.
Firstly, it doesn’t even fix the Boston bullpen. It’s not like they had a good pen and just needed a closer. They now have two good relievers – add about 4 more and they will match the Royals pen. The Red Sox still need the bulk of a bullpen, a #1 starting pitcher and another SP upgrade, a first baseman and an outfielder. BUT, they just unloaded a bunch of their tradeable surplus prospects for 1 relief pitcher. AWFUL MOVE by DD. But, then again he never seemed to have any idea of how to build a bullpen.
The offseason just started. Still moves to be made. Koji and Tazawa are pretty good, but they need more. Maybe O’Day gets signed.
They have plenty more prospects to deal. Most teams overvalue their prospects. DD has a fresh eye looking at their farm. 70% of top 100 prospects are busts
I’ll fix the Boston bullpen for you. Buchholz and Kelly to the pen. Tazawa is extremely effective when he is not ridden like a mule, and doesn’t pitch against Toronto. Buchholz ain’t gonna throw 150 innings, so let him shine in 70, or trade his year for a RP contract. Kelly has finally learned enough about pitching to be an outstanding one inning guy. Koji will be fine for another year. Buy two starters.
IIRC, there were rumors that Premier made all those big moves in the off-season not only in an attempt to upgrade the ML onfield product for 2015, but also to trade off/QO all of those guys in an attempt to put his own brand on the Pads farm system. Considering the absolutely disgusting rangers systems he helped put together, I wouldn’t be too upset with allowing him the resources to trade for the prospects he wants and draft his own guys with the influx of comp draft picks coming their way.
*Preller
So he gutted the Padres system of a bunch of good prospects to get a bunch of middling MLB players with terrible lineup construction, so he could finish at the bottom of his division, all as a master plan to get his “own” prospects in?
Which good prospects are you talking about?
Matt Wisler qualifies I think, especially if he can learn to get lefties out.
We want to win now and in 5 years. This trade is the first of about 5 moves that will help us win now whilst detracting virtually zero value from our ability to win in 5 years time.
Well done DD for being decisive and showing some balls!
“whilst detracting virtually zero value from our ability to win in 5 years time.”
Sure, you can make any argument work if you just say things that aren’t true.
He didn’t give up any prospects. The players you think he gave up don’t really exist outside of faux baseball cards a secret Dombrowski assembled disinformation team printed up. Preller himself doesn’t know this because Dombrowski used Preller’s adjacency to Hollywood to hire athletic looking actors to show up for the physicals. They are also under contract to show up for Padres spring training photos and then “disappear” as soon as PT and baseball drills start. Preller will be too humiliated to out Dombrowski for this once he finally figures it out, so I’m pretty sure Dave will be able to pull off the same play on at least two more teams before it becomes general knowledge.
And I think you owe Mr. Sterland an apology.
I know we just had a rookie season for the ages, but that does not suddenly mean that every prospect in baseball will be a star.
With a cooler head, this seems like a great deal for both sides.
SD gets a good prospect, an ok one, and two org depth guys.
Boston gets a non rental superstar closer for three relatively affordable years, and now have an excellent 8th an 9th inning bullpen. Add one more 7th inning guy and that bullpen will be top notch.
All the while keeping the top 8 young players in their system. What’s not to like?
After the last off-season, I had concluded that AJ Preller had the courage of Charles Lindbergh but the brains of a piece of granite. Maybe he’d be fired by the All Star break — in spite of his long contract. Now he looks like a wizard, even though none of these guys will contribute in 2016, or is Dombrowski just a willing victim, knowing that he has to produce in 2016 with all of that payroll? Koji is no slouch so was this the best use of all those prospects? The Red Sox have greater needs than another solid closer.
Preller has made about a half dozen big deals so far. At least half of them were terrible, so him finally finding a bigger sucker than himself isn’t enough to take him off the dumbkuss list.
I don’t see the harm in moving some guys not ready for the majors for a guy who can help the team right now. Better than doing something stupid like signing Ian Desmond and Stephen Drew to platoon in left field.
I don’t think you want to hear about the next move in DD’s “plan”.
troll?
Trolling?
The Red Sox had an essential immediate need for an elite BP arm. No such arms are available in the FA market, unlike SP’ers which is another need they have.
All 4 prospects they gave up are way down in the farm system, none having excelled at AA, and all years away from the MLB. Two are nothing more than lotto picks. Margot and Guerra are legitimate prospects, but Guerra still has bust potential as a back end 100 prospect who has yet to experience AA ball. In any event, both are surplus prospect since CF and SS are blocked for years to come.
Furthermore, the Padres had no compelling need to trade Kimbrel. They rejected a package from the Yankees that included Mateo at the deadline. Red Sox had the greater need for this trade to happen, and were willing to pay the price.
It does bring back memories of Ben Cheringtons first year. Trading a bunch of prospects and young MLB talent for Andrew Bailey and Melancon. Neither worked out very well. DD better hope Kimbrel works out
Some good comments, but I’m getting tired of all the hot takes filling up the comment section. Can’t we just be adults and not try to get a rise out of someone?
Oh, sweet irony.
I’ve been thinking about how DD is exploiting a market inefficiency in making this trade. The market inefficiency (more like an extreme scarcity) might simply be the availability of elite closers with HOF potential and under team control during their prime years of peak production.
Dennis Eckersley, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Bruce Sutter and Hoyt Wilhelm are the only HOF closers.
They are all from different eras with different career makeups and only Bruce Sutter was exclusively a closer his whole major league career. Era differentials notwithstanding, his 162 game average performance is arguably not as good as Kimbrel’s career so far:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/suttebr01.shtml
The GOAT, Mariano Rivera, will soon join these closers in his first year of HOF eligibility:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverma01.shtml
Though he still has a long way to go, Kimbrel, if he doesn’t get hurt, is arguably on the same career trajectory:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml
Rivera’s per 162 game averages held up amazingly well until the end. Nevertheless, so far, Kimbrel’s 162 game averages for ERA, FIP, WHIP, ERA+, K/9 and K/BB are all better than Mo’s. Only bad health and lack of longevity could derail Kimbrel’s HOF trajectory. However, even if Kimbrel takes a step back from his career averages during the next 3 years of Sox control, he is still worth the money and probably still on his HOF path. It is a significantly safer bet that Kimbrel will give the Sox elite closer performance during his contract than any of the 4 prospects traded away will have much more than a marginal major league impact during their next 3 seasons. Viewed this way, the Sox just received gold in exchange for 2 and maybe 3 potentially high payoff lottery tickets. I covet prospects but given the quality and depth of who remains in their system, the Sox didn’t give up anything they couldn’t afford to lose.
There must be another elite closer who was traded away from his original team during his prime to go on to a HOF like career but I can’t think of who. Sutter from the Cubs (surprise) to the Cardinals might qualify. Maybe someone else can come up with more examples. The point is that a closer as proven and projectible as Kimbrel almost never if ever comes on the trade market. You can argue that to get a closer of Kimbrel’s caliber for good but not the top (within the Sox organization) prospects, is impressive – particularly considering that the team getting the best player usually wins the trade. No doubt, Wren’s familiarity with Kimbrel and DD’s nightmares in always chasing after closers with very good Tigers teams affected their thinking. The only real regret the Sox might have eventually is if one of these prospects eventually turns into Rizzo or Bagwell. It might happen but odds are it won’t.
At first I thought, like everyone, that this seemed like a lot to give up for a 60 IP per season closer. Thinking this through, it seems like DD might have pulled off the best trade for a closer since the Cardinals swiped Sutter from the Cubs (mainly for Leon Durham and Ken Reitz).
Well, there was this guy named Kimbrel traded last season from the Braves to the Padres 😉 Though I am making light of it, I liked your post.
Using your logic, I could say the Padres were leveraging the inefficiency of young centerfield prospects aged between 20 and 20.5 at the time of the trade and the inefficiency of young shortstop prospects whose first name begins with “J.”
The Hall of Fame has nothing to do with value added to a team, and because something is uncommon does not make it an inefficiency.
A market inefficiency implies you can acquire something of more value than the market is pricing in. DD paid more than what most would consider to be market value. As a Sox fan, I have no problem with DD targeting an impact closer like Kimbrel. What I have a problem with is the negotiating, or lack thereof. Based on the comps, he paid substantially over market value.
A great post if you ignore the fact that Kimbrel has been declining for 4 years and last year gave up 6 HR, which in 18 years as a reliever Mariano only did once, at age 43, his final season.
I am wondering about the mechanics of a trade in baseball, once teams start talking. What happens? Maybe some knowledgable people here can enlighten me.
a) Does one side approach the other, kind of like a comment section in Fangraphs and say, ‘we will give you players x and y for player z’? or do they just say ‘we are interested in player z’? and then the other team comes back with what they want?
b) Once they’ve exchanged first offers, do they just negotiate from there, or does one side go to other teams and use the offer in hand to leverage it (and then possibly go back to the first team and say ‘hey, we got a better offer, what can you do’?
c) There is no set norm?
In thinking about this trade, I keep coming back to wondering about how this all goes down – were the Red Sox openly competing with another team(s) or is this just a ‘nope, can’t do it for just Margot and Asuaje’ type thing?
I think many of you are seriously over rating the prospects involved in this trade. Prospects almost always flame out. Potential is common. Performance is rare.
All of the prospects involved are YEARS away from the show and most are blocked by better players already on RS roster.
Kimbrel is ELITE! By any measure or metric he is among the very best closers…EVER! He is still young and has not morphed into Mariano yet but his numbers to this point in his career are eye popping.
Trading away prospects who are mostly in the low minors for an established ELITE MLB player is a no brainer. Sure he is JUST a reliever. Go ask the Royals how important having a great closer is. Better yet go ask the Mets.
My prediction? None of the prospects dealt ever out play the players the sox already have in hand (Betts, Bogaerts, JBJ et al.) and Kimbrel helps hoist another WS banner before his contract is up.
Get Kimbrel without giving up Devers or Moncada or JBJ or either of their young catchers or Owens or Erod? Done and done. This was a very good trade for the Sox.
Couldn’t agree more.
Kimbrel WAS elite!
Last year among receivers he was 18th in WAR, 26th in FIP, and 9th in xFIP.
He’s been getting worse for 4 years.
I think the reports of Kimbrel’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. If we grant that Betances, Miller, Chapman and Davis are all better than Kimbrel he still is a top 5 closer (really top 4 since Betances and Miller can’t both close for the Yanks). Throw in Osuna and Kenley Jansen and Kimbrel is still a top 7 closer. Given the state of the Red Sox bullpen for most of last season this trade represents a huge upgrade going forward.
The narrative that Kimbrel is on a “pronounced” decline is based on two flawed premises in my view.
First, Kimbrel is on a decline from a peak performance that was historic. Regression to the mean was inevitable to some degree. By saying he is in decline you are punishing him for his own unbelievable level of dominance in previous seasons. That’s the equivalent of saying that Mike Trout is in decline because he hasn’t achieved double digit fWAR totals for the past two seasons. What a bum! Still, there are 29 other teams that would be happy to fit Trout into their lineup for the balance of his decline phase…
The second bit of faulty logic points out that Kimbrel just endured the worst season of his career without appreciating the circumstances that surrounded last season. I think its important to remember that Kimbrel was traded on the eve of last season with no time to prepare and settle in with his new team. I think it likely that he may have been distracted by having to find a new home for he and his wife. Baseball players are not robots and a last minute trade, 3,000 miles from home can certainly help explain Kimbrel’s struggles early last season. After May, Kimbrel was as dominant as ever and I expect he will continue to excel going forward. This trade to the Sox gives he and his family several months to settle in and get comfortable. I think that’s significant.
In any case, you can continue to play the part of chicken little and try to convince everyone that the sky is falling. A more dispassionate look at the numbers and circumstances suggests that the BoSox just got a lot better at a position that desperately needed an upgrade and it only cost them a handful of their second tier prospects. A win win trade for both franchises in my opinion.
I think the article made the point that two of these guys were well above “second tier prospects”.
The prospects involved were most certainly second tier in the context of the Red Sox system. Supply and demand is economics 101 and every team in the league knows how stacked the RS system is. These were blocked prospects for the sox who were far more likely to flame out and lose value than make an impact on the major league level (for recent examples see Cecchini, Garin or Middlebrooks, Wil among others). From my view, these prospects are also being over rated. I’m sceptical that any of them pan out to be anything more than replacement level ball players. Margot’s splits and near total lack of plate discipline or power do not bode well for his future and the other three are so far away from the bigs, they aren’t anything more than lottery tickets. Flipping those assets for 2/3 years of a young cost controlled closer, given the Red Sox expectations they will be competing for championships in the near to medium term, an excellent move for the sox.
“Potential is common. Performance is rare.”
Amen brother. Amen.
The trolls and Red Sox boomers really came out in groves for this article.
Are you trolling by using the word “groves?”
No, just a typo. But I’m glad you agree with my assessment, notwithstanding the typo.
Groves…lol. Look at me! I’m a tree!
Questionable moves by Dumbrowski on so many levels. Big Score by Padres. Spent years at Ft Myers watching prospects Boston let go of some great prospects AND a polished pitcher with more control/command than some college guys. That kids composure on the mound was solid, he looked like Lester and threw AA stuff all season in the GCL/Lowell. 26/1 K/BB ratio? it’ll be interesting to see what Kimbrel does. Hope he gets the job done for Boston. Cant wait to see what he chooses for FA.
As a Sox fan, I hate this deal. The Padres fleeced the Sox with this deal. I don’t so mind who they moved, but they should have been able to either get Kimbrel (or even Chapman) for less than this group, or they should have gotten more for this group. Obviously, only time will tell on this deal, and I’m glad to see DD being active, but this particular move has an Al Davis type of feel to it.