Build a Better WAR Metric, Checkpoint
In trying to summarize the responses to the three questions, so far, what we have in terms of preference is:
– the event, regardless of the context
– the event, within the context of the whole game state (inning, score, base, out)
– the event, within the context of the base-out state
– and far down the list, the event as it ultimately affects the inning
What the responders therefore are gravitating toward is a purely
content-neutral metric. But, to the extent that we do want to measure the context-specific impact, that should be kept separate, and perhaps not even tied to the player at all. Just a general “timing” bucket.
If we take the case of the triple in the previous thread, in either case, Hamilton and Dyson will get +1 run, because that’s the context-neutral value of the triple, according to Linear Weights.
We immediately add a -0.1 runs because a triple with the bases empty and 0 outs is worth +0.9 runs. So, they don’t want to penalize either guy for getting the triple when they did, and so, to make things add up, we need “-0.1” runs for timing.
Then the three outs, they each get -0.25 runs, as is the standard weight.
So far, we have this:
+1.0 Hamilton
-0.1 timing: limited impact triple
-0.25 batter1
-0.25 batter2
-0.25 batter3
That’s a total of +0.15 runs. But since the inning started at +0.5 runs of expectancy, and we get 0 runs scored, the total has to be -0.5 runs. So, we add another item:
-0.65 bad timing: leaving runner on base
As for the other scenario:
+1.0 Dyson
-0.1 timing: limited impact triple
-0.25 batter1
-0.25 batter2
-0.25 batter3
But, since we actually scored a run, that should come in at +0.5 runs. We need another:
+0.35 good timing: scoring the runner
For a minority, a vocal minority, those “timing” impact runs should be given to the players involved. Looking at the Hamilton one, whereas a generic out is worth -0.25 runs, an out with a runner on third is more costly. So, that -0.65 runs has to be distributed to the three out-makers, for those readers part of the vocal minority. For the readers in the majority, those runs are an after-thought. Maybe they should be considered, so the thing adds up. But, it shouldn’t fall on the shoulders of the players involved. Just a general team bucket to capture the various plays affected by timing.
So, that’s how you build your WAR:
For each player, figure his context-neutral impact as one value, and his “timing” as another value.
Then, the reader can choose whether to include the timing value or not.
Now, on to the pitchers and fielders!
