The push for .500 continues. With seemingly every team in baseball — except for the Nationals, anyway — deciding to push for the middle of the pack, the Brewers and Rangers have reportedly agreed on a deal that might help both teams push a little closer to that goal. According to Joel Sherman (and others), Texas will acquire Yovani Gallardo from Milwaukee once the physicals are completed.

The Rangers clearly needed another starter, and weren’t willing to get in on the bidding for any of the free agents that want a long-term deal. They were linked to Cole Hamels last week, but apparently don’t want to part with the talent Philadelphia is looking for while also taking on $96 million in salary, so they were instead left to shop on the secondary market. Gallardo fits as a short-term upgrade without a long-term salary commitment, improving the Rangers 2015 outlook while presumably not costing them a huge piece of their future.

The Brewers, however, might be willing to spend money to acquire a longer term option for their rotation, and given that they’ve just traded him away, apparently weren’t willing to make that commitment to Gallardo. By trading Gallardo, they’ve opened up a spot in their rotation for a pursuit of a pitcher like James Shields, or potentially given themselves an option to make a trade for Jordan Zimmermann, who is from Wisconsin and is a potential trade piece now that the Nationals have signed Max Scherzer. Perhaps the Brewers are optimistic they can either sign Shields or make a run at a trade-and-sign deal for a pitcher like Zimmermann, and shipped Gallardo out to clear up a roster spot for that future pursuit.

Gallardo isn’t so good that the Brewers can’t replace him by throwing some money around, but he’s good enough that he’s definitely an upgrade for a Rangers rotation that had too many replacement level arms penciled in for key roles. This isn’t the kind of trade that will make Texas a favorite in the AL West — there probably aren’t enough deals out there to be made for that to happen — but it gives them a more realistic shot at a decent season in 2015, and perhaps they’re more sanguine about signing Gallardo long term.

We’ll have more on the deal once we know all the pieces involved, and the Brewers side might take a while to come into focus, but it’s possible that this is a trade that leads to both teams having better rotations than they did yesterday.

At the beginning of this week, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

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Back when Nick Markakis signed for $44 million over four years, a lot of us were left scratching our heads. After all, Nori Aoki is basically the same player, and it seemed like he was probably going to have to settle for a two or three year contract at a significantly lower valuation. I predicted he’d get 3/$24M, while the FG crowd had him at 2/$14M.

Turns out, we were way too high, as Aoki has signed today with the Giants for just $4.7 million in guaranteed money.

aoki gets $4.7M guarantee. $4M salary for 2015, plus 700K buyout on 2016 option. can make 12.5M max

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) January 16, 2015

With a $4 million base salary in 2015, it seems likely the second year option is probably around $7 million, and then some incentives could push it to the $12.5 million figure if he played really well. But even if he absolutely maxes out, that’s still less than what the crowd estimated, half of what I guessed, and only a fraction of it is guaranteed.

At this price, this is probably going to go down as one of the better free agent signings of the winter. Aoki isn’t any kind of star, but he’s a perfectly acceptable corner outfielder. He doesn’t have a platoon split issue, so he can play everyday. He’s a good enough defender to not need to be subbed out for a late game replacement. And yet the Giants are basically paying him like a bench player.

Heyman notes that Aoki took less money to play for the Giants, so perhaps there’s some World Series discount in here, but this is still a huge bargain. In a market where worse players are signing for $20 million and costing their teams a first round pick, Aoki for $5 million is kind of amazing.

The FanGraphs Library is all about getting readers up to speed on the statistics and principles we use on the site. For some readers, it’s a place to verify the exact formula we use to determine a player’s replacement level runs in our WAR formula, but for others, it’s a place to learn the basics.

One of my goals with the Library over the last few months has been to make it easier for new readers to get up to speed if they aren’t familiar with sabermetrics. Part of that process has been making the specific statistical explanations a little more explicit, but I’ve also tried to put together a series of blog posts that walks the newcomer through some of the important building blocks of the discipline.

Today, we’re rolling out a “Getting Started” section in the Library that tries to solidify that second part of that approach. One of the most challenging parts of trying to learn something new is knowing where to start. The amount of information can be overwhelming and without any guidance, people often give up or get lost. This new page (visible as a tab at the top of every Library page), will help guide you.

Right now it features sections on why we care about sabermetrics, the first few stats you should learn, what we offer at FanGraphs, and some various concepts and terms we use often. Over time, we’ll add more sections. The page’s introduction also features direct links to those various sections if you want to skip around to the parts you think will be useful.

As always, drop any questions in the comments thread or find me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44 if you’re looking for help.

The four Caribbean winter leagues have entered their respective playoff rounds. Below is a (probably incomplete) collection of video feeds for Wednesday’s games. The author will update it haphazardly over the course of the evening. Readers are invited to provide useful links, as well. Games listed in chronological order, with most recent start time on top.

Game: Tiburones at Caribes (Venezuela)
Start Time: 7:10pm ET
Players of Note: Alcides Escobar
Video / Box

Game: Navegantes at Tigres (Venezuela)
Start Time: 7:10pm ET
Players of Note: Ramon Flores, Avisail Garcia, Jason Lane (Pitching!), Josmil Pinto
Video / Box

Game: Gigantes at Estrellas (Dominican)
Start Time: 6:30pm ET
Players of Note: Robinson Cano, Maikel Franco, Jean Segura
Video / Box

Game: Toros at Aguilas (Dominican)
Start Time: 6:30pm ET
Players of Note: Alen Hanson, Carlos Martinez, Cesar Puello
Video / Box

Earlier this week, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals issued its long-awaited ruling in the appeal of San Jose’s lawsuit against Major League Baseball today. The lawsuit involves the proposed relocation of the Oakland Athletics to the city. As Wendy Thurm has previously discussed quite extensively (here, here, and here), after MLB delayed its approval of the relocation for a number of years, San Jose filed suit in June 2013 claiming that the league’s refusal to approve the move violated federal antitrust law.

In October 2013, the district court dismissed the lawsuit, finding that MLB’s historic antitrust exemption shielded the league’s relocation policy. The city then appealed that decision to the federal court of appeals, resulting in today’s decision. The Ninth Circuit’s opinion is available here.

Like the district court, a three-judge panel of the Ninth Circuit unanimously held that baseball’s antitrust exemption generally protects the “business of baseball,” including matters involving the league’s relocation policy. Indeed, the appellate court concluded that relocation issues are central to the baseball business, as MLB’s relocation policy is “designed to ensure access to baseball games for a broad range of markets and to safeguard the profitability – and thus viability – of each ball club.”

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The four Caribbean winter leagues have entered their respective playoff rounds. Below is a (probably incomplete) collection of video feeds for Wednesday’s games. The author will update it haphazardly over the course of the evening. Readers are invited to provide useful links, as well. Games listed in chronological order, with most recent start time on top.

Game: Navegantes at Tiburones (Venezuela)
Start Time: 7:00pm ET
Players of Note: Alcides Escobar
Video / Box

Game: Toros at Gigantes (Dominican)
Start Time: 6:30pm ET
Players of Note: Alen Hanson, Cesar Puello, Jean Segura
Video / Box

Game: Aguilas at Estrellas (Dominican)
Start Time: 6:30pm ET
Players of Note: Robinson Cano, Juan Perez, Manny Ramirez
Video / Box

The Braves housecleaning reportedly continued today, with the team nearing a deal that would ship sometimes-catcher Evan Gattis to Houston in exchange for prospects Mike Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman. The quick overview of the players going both directions.

Gattis is a 28 year old with top shelf power, but limited skills beyond that, as he doesn’t control the strike zone particularly well and is somewhat limited defensively; the metrics on him behind the plate are okay, but scouts have long projected him to be a first baseman or designated hitter, and the Braves certainly didn’t see him as a long-term option behind the plate. Best case scenario, he’s probably Mike Napoli with fewer walks, which is a pretty nice player but not quite a star. And with the Astros already having a crowded catching situation, he may end up getting most of his playing time at first base or left field, potentially limiting his value a bit.

Interestingly, both Steamer and ZIPS are down on Gattis, projecting him to be just a slightly above average hitter in 2015, which would make him something more like Mark Trumbo instead of Mike Napoli. That said, Gattis had an unusual career path, and perhaps his age shouldn’t be held against him quite as much as the forecasting systems think; he may be a “young” 28 in terms of baseball development. This is one case where I’d probably be comfortable taking the over on the projected offensive line.

To acquire Gattis, the Astros gave up their #5, #7, and #21 prospects according to Kiley McDaniel’s rankings. Here is what he wrote about the three.

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Not for nothing did Aristotle, in probably his Ethics or something like his Ethics, declare that contemplation is the “highest good” — but that, right after contemplation, brushes with fame were the “second-highest good.”

The editors of and contributors to this site experienced the latter of those goods last night by means of popular sitcom Parks and Recreation. Created in part by Michael Schur, writer emeritus of Fire Joe Morgan, the first episode of that program’s seventh season features a law firm whose name is composed entirely of terms borrowed from baseball’s nerd lexicon — including, but not limited to, FanGraphs WAR (often abbreviated as fWAR).

Just as the woodlands which, in Psalm 29, are stripped bare by the voice of God, the author and his colleagues are stripped bare.

Image stolen entirely sans ruth from Deadspin.