FAN Projection Targets: Five Notable Sophomore Pitchers

Earlier this week, FanGraphs CEO and founder David Appelman announced that the ballots for the 2015 FAN Projections are now available for the tender ministrations of this site’s readership. With a view to ensuring that all notable players are addressed sufficiently — and also towards producing the number of posts he’s required to publish each week — the present author is highlighting certain players whose ballots are of some particular interest.

Before casting a ballot, don’t forget this note from Appelman’s announcement post:

Please note that everything this year is a rate stat. You’re projecting 2B+3B, HR, SB, and Fielding as a measure of 150 games (basically a full season). The player’s previous stats are shown per 150 games in the projection ballot too. This will make changing playing time projections much easier as you’ll only have to change the games played portion.

Now, here are five players for the reader’s consideration — all pitchers who exhausted their rookie eligibility in 2014. Note: listed age is for 2015.

Player: Chase Anderson, 27, RHP (Profile)
2014 Line: 114.1 IP, 8.27 K/9, 3.15 BB/9, 1.26 HR/9, 4.22 FIP at MLB
Notes: After demotion to bullpen at Triple-A in 2013, returned to rotation this past season — first with Double-A Mobile, then with parent club. Parlayed sexy changeup into 99 xFIP- over 114 innings. Despite success, doesn’t appear a certainty for D-backs rotation in 2015.

¡Submit Projection for Chase Anderson!

Player: Ken Giles, 24, RHP (Profile)
2014 Line: 45.2 IP, 12.61 K/9, 2.17 BB/9, 0.20 HR/9, 1.34 FIP at MLB
Notes: Following a minor-league career in which he walked nearly 14% of batters, earned promotion to Phillies this past season and walked roughly half that number while also striking out 38% of those same batters. Sat at 97 mph with his fastball and also produced ca. 25% swinging-strike rate with slider. Likely to assume setup role for Phils in 2015.

¡Submit Projection for Ken Giles!

Player: TJ House, 25, LHP (Profile)
2014 Line: 102.0 IP, 7.06 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, 0.88 HR/9, 3.69 FIP at MLB
Notes: Made 19 appearances (18 starts) in 2014, his first ever in the major leagues. Somehow improved upon both the strikeout and walk rates he’d recorded over roughly 200 innings of Triple-A ball. A candidate to remain in the rotation in 2015, but also to begin the season at Triple-A, again, following club’s acquisition of Gavin Floyd.

¡Submit Projection for TJ House!

Player: Matt Shoemaker, 28, RHP (Profile)
2014 Line: 136.0 IP, 8.21 K/9, 1.59 BB/9, 0.93 HR/9, 3.26 FIP at MLB
Notes: Former undrafted college senior out of Eastern Michigan University. Spent parts of five seasons with Triple-A Salt Lake before earning regular work in 2014 with parent club. Finished second (deservedly) in Rookie of Year voting for American League. Likely to return to rotation in 2015.

¡Submit Projection for Matt Shoemaker!

Player: Yordano Ventura, 24, RHP (Profile)
2014 Line: 183.0 IP, 7.82 K/9, 3.39 BB/9, 0.69 HR/9, 3.60 FIP at MLB
Notes: Known previously as hard-throwing prospect, evolved into hard-throwing major-league starter in 2014. Produced 2.8 WAR over 183 innings with Royals, and even more by WAR calculated with ERA and not FIP. Possible opening-day starter now for Kansas City following departure of James Shields.

¡Submit Projection for Yordano Ventura!





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Chris
9 years ago

What are your thoughts on Trevor Bauer and Carlos Martinez? I think they could each be considered sophomores this year.

Harold Reynolds
9 years ago
Reply to  Chris

Bauer: bad makeup, clubhouse cancer, won’t ever win more than 10 games in a year unless he becomes willing to listen to his coaches

Martinez: great arm speed, electric stuff, could be a 12 game winner but fits best as a setup guy (he can’t be a closer because he lacks the closer mentality).