There is a thing in golf called “shooting your age.” Basically, it’s a measure of how sharp a player’s game is even as they get older. The way golf is structured, this doesn’t even come into affect until a player’s 60s or 70s. Tiger Woods has yet to shoot his age, because it’s impossible to shoot a 38 on a par-72 course. But it’s a fun way to talk about older players, and to give golfers hope for their futures.

This whole idea led me to wonder if we could apply it to baseball. Obviously, to truly bat one’s age would be a bad thing. Batting average doesn’t really play well with this idea. Neither does wOBA or ISO, for that matter. So, I took a different route. I decided to use wRC+, and then just knock 100 points off. This, of course, gives us a number based around how much better a player batted than league average. Plus, it gives a much nicer number to compare with an age of a player. Read the rest of this entry »

Major League Baseball Advanced Media CEO Bob Bowman told the Associated Press this week that some baseball fans may be able to stream local broadcasts to their desktops and mobile devices by as early as next season. The changes would apply only to fans who already subscribe to the regional sports network that broadcasts their team’s games. For example, a San Francisco Giants fan who already pays for Comcast SportsNet Bay Area through her cable or satellite company would be able to stream Giants games when she is the CSN Bay Area viewing area, but not at home with access to her TV. Right now, she can only access Giants games on CSN Bay Area through MLB.tv and only when she is not in Northern California.

Whether this local streaming would be available through an RSN-linked app or through MLB.tv is still to be determined, according to Bowman. It’s also possible that MLBAM will work out deals with some RSNs and not others. Bowman told AP that the issues are complicated.

“If they were easy to resolve, then somebody would have done it, and if it didn’t matter, then it would have been resolved,” Bowman said. “In the end, we all want the same thing regardless of which side of the table you’re on. We all want somebody to be able to turn on a laptop or turn on a phone and see a live game in-market.”

Fans will be able to test the streaming option during this year’s postseason games, as those games will be available on mobile devices to fans who subscribe to ESPN, TBS and Fox, the three networks who hold baseball’s postseason broadcast rights.

Making local broadcasts available online and through mobile devices is a good first step in attracting younger fans who have grown up with access to a variety of entertainment options in the palm of their hands. But it is only a first step, as the new streaming plan will be linked to an increasingly expensive cable or satellite bill. Fans who’ve cut the cord — or never subscribed in the first place — will still face blackouts of their local team on their desktops and mobile devices.

Moreover, the exclusive broadcast territories would remain intact. So baseball fans in Iowa, for example — who are within the “exclusive” broadcast territory of the Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals and Milwaukee Brewers but are not offered any of those team’s RSNs by their cable or satellite operator — wouldn’t see any relief from the changes Bowman hopes to roll out.

MLBAM’s effort to expand streaming options for fans comes as the league and its RSN partners continue to battle against charges that the exclusive broadcast territories violates federal antitrust law. A federal judge in New York recently ruled that MLB and the RSNs must face trial on the antitrust claims.

Last week, Garrett Richards blew out his knee, and will be out for the rest of the season. Richards was probably the Angels best starter, and because of the timing of the injury, they’re running low on quality options to replace him. As Paul Swydan noted on Friday, there’s Bartolo Colon, Scott Feldman, and, well, not a lot of else.

This is the nature of players getting hurt late in the season; once past the July 31st trade deadline, talent is difficult to acquire. I’ve argued for moving the trade deadline back, though that idea does not necessarily have wide appeal. So what about a more minor change that could keep teams from getting sunk due to a late-season injury: a trade exemption for teams that lose a player from their active roster and place him on the 60-day disabled list after August 1st?

We could even limit the exemption to the same position as the player lost, so that a team couldn’t disable a middle reliever in order to acquire an ace. For a team like the Angels, their situation has changed enough since July 31st to alter their calculations. Maybe now, without Richards, they’d make the Phillies a great offer for Cole Hamels, even including taking the remainder of Ryan Howard’s albatross contract? Or maybe they regret not meeting the Padres asking price for Ian Kennedy?

The intent of having a trade deadline is to stop teams from loading up on mercenaries and forcing a team’s postseason roster to somewhat resemble its regular season roster. But should we really be interested in punishing teams for losing players to unpredictable injuries towards the end of the year, simply because they had the poor fortune of losing a key contributor in August instead of July? Shouldn’t we be interested in letting contending teams maximize their chances of winning? And don’t we want rebuilding teams to be able to extract absurdly high prices from desperate buyers, thus shortening their path back to being a winning team?

Giving a team like the Angels a trade exemption to try to get a starting pitcher to replace Garrett Richards would make the AL West even more exciting, and potentially, lead to an even better postseason experience for the viewers. Even if the Angels overcome this injury and make the division series, is anyone really excited to tune in and watch Hector Santiago pitch a playoff game?

The Red Sox continued their recent run of asset collection, signing Cuban OF Rusney Castillo to a 7-year, $72.5 million deal yesterday.  You can Google around the internet and find a reasonably accurate scouting report, or a grainy, old video from his days playing in Cuba and Dave did a good job breaking down what the value/expectations are for what we understand Castillo to be as a player.   I didn’t want to collect all this existing information and give you a long post to skim, so I’ll share scouting grades I got from a number of scouts that have seen him, and some explanation of what that means for Castillo’s projection.

Hit:  40/50, Game Power:  45/50, Raw Power: 55/55, Speed: 70/70, Field: 50/60, Throw: 50/50

(See the primer for the org rankings if you aren’t familiar with the 20-80 scouting scale, though I explain some of it below)

The most important thing for Castillo are the hit and game power grades, but there’s a lot of uncertainty amongst scouts on those grades.  Castillo hasn’t played in an organized game for awhile, can take wild cuts in batting practice to show his raw power and, like some Cuban defectors before him, changed his body composition a good bit with a new training regimen leading up to his big payday.

Traditionally, scouts would be bearish on Cuban prospects like this and some team desperate for good PR or any kind of talent would overpay.  In the last decade or so, Cuban hitters have been on a great run and scouts are adjusting the potential outcomes accordingly.  Most think Castillo has big league ability now, but will need a minor league period to adjust to game speed.  The expectations are something around average hit/power tools (.260 to .270 and 15-20 homers) but this is a volatile enough situation that both tools could be below average or above average in the short term (and the long-term, too).

The surprising thing from Castillo’s recent workouts was that his added muscle didn’t cost him any speed.  He’s not polished in the outfield, but should be able to stick in center with some work.  He’s even rougher in the infield, but some teams were interested in trying him at second base.

For those wondering who the next Cuban bat is to watch, I wrote up outfielder Yasmani Tomas for my old employers two months ago when he defected.  If he has the same positive body change after defecting that we’ve seen from Castillo and Yasiel Puig, he has the ability to draw a big contract, but he’s still months away from getting the necessary paperwork far enough along to hold open workouts.

One way — perhaps the main way — in which a prospect is capable of producing enthusiasm among the People is by exhibiting signs that he’ll be a valuable major leaguer at some point in the near or less-near future. Another way in which he can do that (i.e. produce enthusiasm) is by demonstrating a skill set otherwise non-extant (or nearly non-extant) in the majors.

While the likelihood of Zach Walters parlaying his skills into a major-league career of consequence remains distinctly uncertain, he’s at least indicated that the aforementioned skill set is likely to be a unique one. Just hours after the present author noted here yesterday that the 24-year-old belonged to a select group of hitters this season — hitters, that is, who’re both (a) particularly inclined to striking out and hitting for power while also (b) capable of occupying the more demanding area of the defensive spectrum — Walters proceeded to demonstrate the entirety of skill set (the offensive part, at least) in three plate appearances against Minnesota (box).

Here, by way of illustration, is the conclusion of Walters’ first plate appearances on Thursday:

And then the second:

And, finally, the third:

In the wake of that game against the Twins, Walters now possesses a 37.2% strikeout rate and .306 isolated-power figure. Of the 43 batted balls he’s hit into fair territory, seven of them (16%) have been home runs.

Here are the top-10 players this season by that inconsequential measure who have also recorded 50-plus plate appearances. (Note that HRC% denotes home runs on contact.):

The active roster button on the leaderboards has undergone a change in how the results are presented. The team displayed in the results will now only show the player’s active team. This goes for the teams section of the leaderboards as well.

For instance, if you check the active roster box, Jon Lester’s team will appear as only the Oakland Athletics, since that is his current active team. When you look at the team leaderboards and you check the active roster box, Jon Lester’s stats with both the Red Sox and the Athletics will be attributed to the Athletics line of data.

Previously, the team displayed in the results was the team(s) the player had played on during the selected time period.

Last week, we updated our Library entry for Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP). This week, FIP’s sister-stat Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) got the same treatment. If you’re looking for a defense independent pitching statistic that also tries to strip out some of the inherent fluctuation in home run rate, xFIP is for you. Head over to the full entry to learn more about it.

If you missed it last week, there’s also a blog post in the Library that breaks down the basics of why using metrics other than ERA will help you develop a better understanding of how well a pitcher is performing.

As always,  please feel free to pose questions or comments below or find me on Twitter @NeilWeinberg44 if that’s more convenient. Also remember to stop by our weekly FanGraphs Q&A chat (Wednesdays at 3pm eastern) to learn more about our stats and our site.

As of this writing, the Pittsburgh Pirates have a better than one-in-four chance of making the postseason. One of their pitchers, Charlie Morton, was recently placed on the disabled list with hip discomfort. Morton’s value is not necessarily reflected in his win/loss record, but he’s been an extremely serviceable pitcher this year, worth over a Win Above Replacement. Morton is the type of pitcher one would want during a playoff push as a reliable starter or a very effective reliever.

Depending on the severity of Morton’s injury, the Pirates may not have that luxury. Morton is being replaced for the time being by Gerrit Cole, a young pitcher with promise who, if healthy, should fill in quite admirably. But there’s an underlying cost to Morton’s injury that doesn’t involve Cole or the Pirates or the playoff race in general. It has to do with Morton’s place in baseball history — specifically the amount of batters he plunks.

Morton already has a hold on the record books, as it happens. In 2013, he hit 3.25% of the batters he faced with a pitch. That is good for a modern-era record. This season, he averaged a hit batsman 2.94% of the time. That averages out to about 3.1%. Pitchers are less likely to walk Adam Jones than Charlie Morton is to hit a batter. If Bartolo Colon were to bat against Charlie Morton, Colon would have almost the same chance of getting hit as he would of getting a hit. (Note: Colon did face Morton twice this year. Neither a hit nor HBP was recorded).

So Charlie Morton hits a lot of batters, is what I’m saying. He’s drilled likely candidates like Jon Jay and Anthony Rizzo, as well as less likely candidates such as Kyle Lohse and Tim Hudson. Morton doesn’t discriminate, it seems. It could just be that he’s a product of his time. I mean, batters are still getting hit at a pretty good rate, historically speaking.

But here’s the leaderboard sorted by HBP/TBF (minimum 115 IP) for the past 30 years.

This is to what the title of this post was alluding. Morton is one tenth of one percent away from holding the two most plunk-happy seasons in recent memory. Depending on his timetable and workload he still may have a chance, but if Pittsburgh falls further out of contention or Cole proves himself to be a worthy replacement (and the Pirates look at Morton’s win/loss record as a proof of performance), we may not see Morton pitch again in 2014.

This is admittedly a weird record and one that causes pain to batters, so perhaps I shouldn’t be rooting for Morton to pull this off, but I still am. Because when pitted against the Clayton Kershaws and Felix Hernandezs of the world, guys like Morton need to carve out their own little notch in history.

I really wanted to end this with a George Clinton funk/plunk reference that didn’t sound forced or hokey, but I just couldn’t. Feel free to add your own attempts in the comments. I’m sure they’ll be lovely.

While the author has referenced the birth records neither of Cubs infielder Javier Baez nor Cleveland infielder-outfielder Zach Walters for the purposes of composing this brief post, circumstantial evidence — like how they were born in different countries and also exhibit little physical resemblance — circumstantial evidence suggests that they are not brothers.

What they’ve demonstrated in terms of baseball performance, however, invites comparison. Both have shown considerable power. Both have also exhibited a proclivity for striking out. Overall, their collected offensive skills have produced slightly above-average batting lines in a limited sample.

Indeed, among all batters to have recorded 50-plus plate appearances this season, here’s a list of all the ones to have produced an isolated power greater than .250, a strikeout rate above 30%, and simultaneously a wRC+ of 100-plus:

Three players, is how many that is: Baez, Walters, and Houston’s Chris Carter. If the former two are brothers from a different mother, then Carter is the issue of a third mother still — a mother who, for all her probably many virtues, doesn’t offer much in the way of defensive value.

Baez and Walters, meanwhile, have both recorded major-leagues innings at shortstop this season. Yes, the former has played more second base; the latter, a number of other positions. That an organization has considered deploying them towards that end of the defensive spectrum, is the point.

None of this is to suggest that Baez and Walters will certainly become the same player. The former’s superior pedigree and younger youth suggest the possibility of a higher peak. That the pair have been mostly indiscernible in the very earliest parts of their major-league careers appears to be a factual thing, though.

With the release of Kiley’s first prospect list for FanGraphs, we’ve updated the player pages to include some basic scouting grades.

These will continue to get updated as we have new information on players. And as Kiley continues to roll out his prospect evaluation lists, we will add players from additional teams.