A Fun Comparison for Denard Span
I’m an unabashed fan of Denard Span, and for my money, he remains one of the game’s most underrated players. But I’ll admit that when I saw this a few hours ago, even I was surprised.
Below, a side by side comparison of Span and Jacoby Ellsbury since the start of the 2012 season.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ | BsR | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denard Span | 1872 | 7% | 11% | 0.109 | 0.318 | 0.287 | 0.340 | 0.396 | 0.325 | 105 | 10.9 | 21.7 | 21.4 | 10.8 |
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 1587 | 7% | 14% | 0.128 | 0.316 | 0.282 | 0.336 | 0.410 | 0.327 | 104 | 22.4 | 28.9 | 18.6 | 10.7 |
Over the last three seasons, Span has essentially been Ellsbury’s equal. They walk the same amount, and while Ellsbury has a tick more power, Span strikes out a little less. Their slash lines are almost identical, and once you adjust for the offensive environments they’ve played in, Span’s wRC+ is actually a point higher, even with less power. Ellsbury’s a better base stealer, but UZR and DRS like Span’s defense a little more. They aren’t perfect clones, but the differences are small, and the overall value has been very similar.
They’re basically the same age — Span was born in February of ’84, Ellsbury in September of ’83 — and have the same general set of skills. Ellsbury’s additional power allows one to see him as a player with a bit more upside — his 2011 season did happen, after all, when he hit as many home runs that year as Span has in his career — and he’s been a slightly better player over his entire career. If you look at their whole big league resume, Ellsbury is at +27 WAR in 3,800 plate appearances, while Span is at +22 in 4,000 plate appearances. On a per-600 PA basis, that gives Ellsbury roughly a +1 WAR advantage.
But the entirety of that difference comes from one year (which occurred four years ago), when Ellsbury was maybe the best player in the game while Span dealt with symptoms from a concussion. That season happened, and it counts, but we’re now on year three of Span and Ellsbury being basically the same player.
The Nationals have a crowded outfield, and the assumption has been that they may look to trade Span this winter. But he’s going to make $9 million next year, and the market just valued a very similar player as a $22 million per year player on a long-term deal. It might be easy to think that Span is a replaceable part, given the team’s depth, let’s not underestimate Span’s impact on the Nationals, and assume that he’d be so easy to replace. Denard Span is really good.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I think the assumption that he’d be traded was from early in the year. Most Nationals’ reporters seem to think it’s a foregone conclusion that his option will be picked up and that he will be back next year (not traded). Adam Kilgore even reported it as such.
Interesting comparison.
Nationals will have to be clinically insane to not pick up his option. A trade is possible, but not probable.
I’m pretty sure the Twins are at or around 0 WAR from their CF’ers since that trade. Sure seems like it anyways. They also traded Revere that offseason.
everything always works itself out for the least deserving fanbase ever
They’re definitely not the Best Fans In Baseball.
And this year the Nats are paying him, what, $7M for 4 WAR?
He should be back next year. If Souza or Taylor had hit better in their limited time in the majors this year, maybe you consider trading Span, but it sure looks like they’ll want Span back next year.
Souza is ready, Taylor is not. But Span has been soooo good in the second half that he’s earned next year’s spot himself. Now what to do with Souza???
Souza is the 4th OF/RH bench bat for an outfield full of players that have had injury problems. Essentially he slides into the Scott Hairston role, only Souza can actually play defense. Nats OF in 2015 will be the same three starters (I’m guessing Werth and Harper switch corners with Harper moving to RF), Souza as RH bench bat and McLouth as LH bench bat. Taylor, Brian Goodwin and (if he gets through the Rule 5 draft) Destin Hood man the OF in Syracuse.
One of the OF may be included in a package for an impact second baseman, but unless that happens the Nats run pretty deep tehre.
another amazing win for the nationals. most blessed sports franchise and fanbase on earth. no troubles ever, proceed straight to utter domination of mlb
No troubles ever? The Expos/Nationals franchise? Like two consecutive 100-loss seasons all of five years ago? Like about to have its third EVER playoff appearance (second for the Nationals)? That franchise has been the most blessed? I don’t think that word means what you think it means.
Or do you mean DC fans are the luckiest ever because of that whole 30+ years with no team at all, or because of how Washington won the World Series only 90 years ago?
Plate discipline, AC. Don’t swing at the trolls.
maybe i just need more education on how BAD that 2005-11 stretch was. NATINALS OMG. JIM BOWDEN OMG
yeah that really balances out having more 80 win seasons than the o’s had for FOURTEEN YEARS IN A ROW. but you guys had it SO BAD
The fact that the O’s were irrelevant for 20 years doesn’t mean that the Nationals didn’t have it bad.
It just means that the 90s/2000s Orioles were a joke of an organization. Everyone already knew that.
And imagine if you guys didn’t have him as a -.5 WAR defender this year…
Thank you Dave. Maybe folks will confuse him with Ellsbury now instead of always confusing him with me.
Nobody can get as much batting average out of their wOBA as me. Span simply can’t touch me there. Ain’t gonna happen.
How does Span have a higher wRC+ but a lower Off WAR input?
OFF includes base running.
BsR. That’s not included in wRC+ anymore. Both BsR and wRC+ go into Off.
That’s still a 0.6 WAR/600 PA difference over the past 3 seasons, so their difference is not entirely due to that one season. Still closer than one would expect
I wish there was a way to measure the value of taking good routes to balls in the outfield. Span is absolutely one of the best. He is rarely, if ever out of position to make a play, and when he makes a spectacular play it is not usually the result of having to make a play that should have been routine if the proper route had been taken (see Revere,Ben)
Ellsbury subluxated his shoulder two weeks into the 2012 season and never really recovered. It’s just as much of an outlier as his 2011 season.
I love Span, but it’s silly to throw out Span’s 2011 because he was playing through an injury while including Ellsbury’s 2012.
I agree…Span is extremely underrated. has always been