Projecting the Cubs’ Albert Almora
With Jorge Soler headed to the disabled list with a hamstring injury, the Cubs have summoned outfielder Albert Almora from Triple-A. It seems Almora, who bats right-handed, will play primarily against left-handed pitching for the time being. The 22-year-old gives Joe Maddon yet another talented hitter to work into his endlessly deep and potent lineup. Almora was hitting .318/.335/.444 in Triple-A with 10 steals and a 13% strikeout rate.
The Cubs selected Almora sixth overall out of high school back in 2012, and he immediately began generating prospect hype. Baseball America deemed him the 33rd- and 36th-best prospect in baseball in 2013 and 2014 respectively. However, he didn’t crack Baseball America’s list in either of the two most recent years, likely because he’s moved slowly through the Cubs system while putting up unspectacular surface stats. He hit .270/.291/.392 between High-A and Double-A in 2014 and then slashed .272/.327/.400 in Double-A last season. Those aren’t exactly knock-your-socks-off numbers.
Yet, despite his flaws, KATOH’s maintained hope in Almora. Over the winter, my system pegged him for 5.2 WAR over the next six years, making him the 46th-best prospect in the game. Adding his 2016 numbers into the mix, Almora’s projection jumps up to 7.4 WAR.
Almora’s projection is primarily driven by two factors: age and strikeout rate. Although it feels like we’ve been hearing about him forever, Almora’s still just 22; and he just turned 22 a few weeks ago. Furthermore, he’s kept his strikeout rate between 10% and 13% the past few years, which suggests he isn’t getting fooled often.
To put some faces to Almora’s statistical profile, let’s go ahead and generate some statistical comps for the former #6 overall pick. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis Distance between Almora’s Double-A and Triple-A numbers since the start of 2015 and every season at those levels since 1990 in which an outfielder recorded at least 400 plate appearances. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues.
| Rank | Name | Proj. WAR | Actual WAR |
| 1 | Mark Smith | 7.7 | 2.2 |
| 2 | Michael Spidale | 6.6 | 0.0 |
| 3 | Alex Romero | 6.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | Alex Ochoa | 7.0 | 6.7 |
| 5 | John Mabry | 5.0 | 3.2 |
| 6 | Nate McLouth | 5.4 | 8.9 |
| 7 | Jason Tyner | 7.7 | 0.9 |
| 8 | Ricky Otero | 7.1 | 0.1 |
| 9 | Felix Pie | 6.5 | 1.7 |
| 10 | Jermaine Dye | 6.6 | 11.2 |
Almora may not have flashy power or speed, but he has enough of both to make an impact. Couple that with excellent contact ability and you have a solid player who just turned 22. He’s still plenty young enough to improve on his weaknesses — perhaps in the power and/or walks department.
Given their outrageous year-to-date performance, the Cubs didn’t really need a reinforcement for their lineup, but they got one in Almora. Given the glut of talent on the Cubs roster, Almora figures to play somewhat sparingly for the time being. But given his age and skill set, he’s ready to contribute right now, and is a good bet to develop into a solid regular down the road.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
Unless he’s a superstar defender (which isn’t out of the question)it’s hard to see him as a starter long term. His contact rates are good in minors but not really elite, and lack of walks/power give him less margin for error
I am dubious on the offense, but he is crazy-good defensively. Should be a plus-plus CF, which is enough to carry an average offensive profile
yes – I am a Cub fan but Almora sure looks like a 4th OF to me. Is he really any better than Szczur, who can actually take a walk? I doubt it. He profiles as the old-school Cubs prospect whose gaudy AAA stats never translate to the bigs.
Szczur played his first season of AAA at the age of 25 with a .261/.315/.312 slash (116 games). At age 22 in AAA Almora has a .318/.335/.444. I believe Almora has more talent even if we don’t see it manifest in the majors this year.
I don’t think he is a superstar in the making but I believe he is a player that will contribute in all areas of the game.
Szczur’s playing age was 24 in 2014 – his first AAA season. Not saying Szczur is THE man in the least, but he can steal a base and be an effective role player. With him and Almora you’re looking at Peter Bourjous type ceiling which is fine.
However, unless Almora is literally the best defensive CF in MLB AND a top-ten contact hitter in MLB he’s going to have to “magically” get a lot stronger and a lot faster in order to cut it as a starter. They’ve been projecting that kind of growth since he was drafted but never has it manifested.
I agree. He needs to prove he’s not a 4th OF. With all of the OF prospects they have/had, not one has proven to be a dependable starter yet. Schwarber is the closest, but we’re all aware of his weaknesses.