Projecting the Prospects in the Chase Utley Trade
After 13 productive years in a Phillies uniform, Chase Utley is headed to Los Angeles, where he’ll help solidify the Dodgers’ second-base situation. In exchange for Utley’s services, the Dodgers sent a couple of minor leaguers to the Phillies: utility player Darnell Sweeney and right-handed pitcher John Richy. Here’s my statistical breakdown of these two prospects.
Darnell Sweeney, 2.3 WAR
Sweeney, 24, has spent the 2015 season at a Triple-A Oklahoma City, where he’s hit .271/.332/.409 in 116 games. He also runs very well, as evidenced by his 32 steals this year. Aside from the steals, though, Sweeney has been an average Triple-A hitter across the board. He’s seen action at second base, third base, shortstop, left field and center field in the minor leagues.
KATOH forecasts Sweeney for 2.3 WAR through age 28, which happens to be very similar to the 2.5 WAR yielded by his 2014 numbers. KATOH gives him an 81% chance of cracking the big leagues. Going by the numbers, Sweeney appears destined to be a bench player.
Let’s put some faces on Sweeney’s potential futures. Using league-adjusted, regressed stats, along with age, I calculated the Mahalanobis Distance between Sweeney’s performance this year and every season in Triple-A since 1990 in which a batter recorded at least 400 plate appearances. Below, you’ll find a list of historical players whose performances were nearest and dearest to Sweeney’s, ranked from most to least similar.
Rank | Mah Dist | Age | PA thru 28 | WAR thru 28 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.40 | Chris Latham | 238 | 0.0 |
2 | 0.64 | David Newhan | 97 | 0.0 |
3 | 0.68 | Xavier Avery* | 107 | 0.0 |
4 | 0.78 | Gary Brown* | 7 | 0.3 |
5 | 0.87 | Reggie Taylor | 548 | 0.0 |
6 | 0.97 | Mark Little | 105 | 0.7 |
7 | 1.15 | Luis Ugueto | 31 | 0.1 |
8 | 1.17 | Dustin Martin | 0 | 0.0 |
9 | 1.22 | Amaury Garcia | 27 | 0.2 |
10 | 1.27 | Chase d’Arnaud* | 157 | 0.0 |
11 | 1.28 | Jeromy Burnitz | 1,297 | 7.3 |
12 | 1.33 | Henry Mateo | 251 | 0.0 |
13 | 1.40 | Santiago Perez | 160 | 0.0 |
14 | 1.44 | Jayson Nix | 869 | 0.9 |
15 | 1.53 | Prentice Redman | 27 | 0.0 |
16 | 1.54 | Carlos Garcia | 1,926 | 1.9 |
17 | 1.55 | Josh Rabe | 82 | 0.0 |
18 | 1.62 | Tim Raines Jr. | 174 | 0.3 |
19 | 1.66 | Angel Pagan | 1,462 | 9.0 |
20 | 1.73 | McKay Christensen | 146 | 0.0 |
*Hitters who have yet to play their age-28 seasons.
*****
John Richy, 0.8 WAR
Sweeney isn’t a particularly exciting prospect, but John Richy is perhaps even less exciting. The 23-year-old has pitched exclusively at the High-A level this year, where he’s pitched to an unremarkable 4.20 ERA and 4.13 FIP. Over 22 appearances, including 18 starts, he struck out 19% of opposing batters, which is about average for a pitcher at his level. His 6% walk rate was better than average.
KATOH pegs Richy for 0.8 WAR through age 28 with a 33% chance of pitching in the big leagues over that span. His 2014 numbers yielded a similar projection of 0.6 WAR. All three of Richy’s pitches flash at least average, according to Kiley McDaniel, so there’s clearly something there, even if it hasn’t shown up in the stats. Even so, 23-year-olds with good stuff who have yet to master A-Ball are a dime a dozen.
Here are some Mahalanobis comps for your viewing pleasure.
Rank | Mah Dist | Name | IP thru 28 | WAR thru 28 |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | 0.41 | Alfredo Venegas | 0 | 0.0 |
2 | 0.51 | Chris Flinn | 0 | 0.0 |
3 | 0.51 | Asher Wojciechowski* | 16 | 0.2 |
4 | 0.61 | Jason Stephens | 0 | 0.0 |
5 | 0.63 | Fernando Rodriguez | 123 | 0.1 |
6 | 0.64 | Matt Pool | 0 | 0.0 |
7 | 0.64 | Michael Butler | 0 | 0.0 |
8 | 0.68 | Brandon Duckworth | 364 | 3.0 |
9 | 0.69 | Nick Webb | 0 | 0.0 |
10 | 0.78 | Joe Mays | 790 | 7.0 |
11 | 0.79 | Dan Kyslinger | 0 | 0.0 |
12 | 0.79 | Branden Kline* | 0 | 0.0 |
13 | 0.81 | Chris Mason | 0 | 0.0 |
14 | 0.83 | Travis Held | 0 | 0.0 |
15 | 0.85 | Ryan Glynn | 189 | 0.1 |
16 | 0.87 | Ed Kofler | 0 | 0.0 |
17 | 0.87 | Hoby Milner* | 0 | 0.0 |
18 | 0.90 | Steve Dreyer | 58 | 0.2 |
19 | 0.91 | Will Atwood* | 0 | 0.0 |
20 | 0.91 | Russ Brock | 0 | 0.0 |
*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 seasons.
Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.
What do you mean not exciting? If Sweeney averages .3 WAR every 7 at bats like Gary Brown, hell, that’s 25 WAR his first season.