Rockies Extend Qualifying Offer to Michael Cuddyer
Well, we’ve got our first surprise of the offseason, as right before the deadline to extend qualifying offers, the Rockies announced that they were going to extend that to free agent outfielder Michael Cuddyer. By making the QO, Cuddyer now has a week to determine if he wants to accept a one year, $15.3 million contract, or hit free agency with draft pick compensation attached.
Without the QO, I think Cuddyer likely could have landed a two three year deal, probably in the $10 million per year range. In the Contract Crowdsourcing project, the median forecast was for $18 million over two years, so even if the crowd was a bit low, expectations were somewhere in that range.
Now, though, that contract is basically out the window, as it wouldn’t benefit Cuddyer to accept a second year that only guarantees him $4.7 million more than accepting the qualifying offer. In order to get a deal that would be more valuable than taking the 1/$15M QO, he’s probably going to need to get three years. And ~3/$30M, plus the forfeiture of a draft pick, is a high price to pay for a guy who played in 49 games last year and turns 36 next March.
Now, the market has historically overpaid for power, and as a right-handed hitter with the ability to drive the ball, Cuddyer would likely have commanded a premium in free agency. Especially because he also comes with the reputation as a great clubhouse guy and off-the-field intangibles. But we’re still talking about a guy with a Steamer forecast of +1 WAR next year, and that’s assuming he stays healthy enough to play most of the season.
As a player, Cuddyer isn’t all that different from an older Kendrys Morales, though he does offer a bit more defensive value in that he can theoretically run around the outfield a bit. Last year, Morales bet on this skillset getting paid, turned down the qualifying offer, and found out that the market for good-not-great hitters with limited other skills wasn’t what he thought it would be.
Will Cuddyer turn down a guaranteed $15 million from Colorado in order to find out how much more valuable the league sees him than Morales? I’m guessing no. And if he does take the deal, becoming the first player to accept a qualifying offer, the big question then becomes what the Rockies do with their already crowded outfield.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Well, my game theory comment is shot to hell. The Rockies must think no player has learned anything from the Drew/Morales fiasco and that every QO will be turned down.
An expensive mistake for them to make, but what do you expect? Not nearly as expensive as Mike Hampton for example.
Interesting point comes up with older players, who (a) are less likely to get a long deal, (b) would seem likely to suffer more from a missed spring training, and (c) don’t have many years after next year to make up for missed income. The only advantage he has is $70M of career earnings giving him a good cushion.
Way too risky for Cuddyer to turn down the QO. A 50% pay raise at this age? If he went into the market with the QO attached he probably doesn’t make $15M in the rest of his career.
I think Cuddyer should be thanking his lucky stars and accept it right now. It seemed unlikely that he’d get a deal much better than this in Free Agency before DPC, let alone after. If he takes it he makes more money this year than he’d likely get to in Free Agency, and get’s a chance to prove that he’s healthy, and if he preforms like he did the last two years when he was on the field he should be paid nicely next offseason.
It’s a strange move by Colorado because there’s no room at the inn: the Rockies in 2015 have Dickerson, Blackmon, Stubbs and Cargo all under contract. Dickerson and Blackmon are pre-arbitration, and Stubbs is in his final year of arbitration. I suppose Stubbs could be on the trade market. But if Colorado wants Blackmon to be an every-day centerfielder, then Stubbs could serve as a useful (if somewhat expensive) fourth outfielder. But there’s still no room for Cuddyer.
The only way it makes any sense for Colorado to set aside $15 million for Cuddyer would be if they are planning to move Cargo this offseason. And that seems like a really bad move since Cargo is rehabbing from knee surgery and presumably wouldn’t bring much of a haul until teams are convinced he has healed and is ready to play. Therefore, if Cargo is to be traded, it would probably be very late in the offseason, perhaps even during spring training.
So it appears that Colorado is hoping Cuddyer doesn’t call their bluff and take the $15 million. Colorado paid Cuddyer $31.5 million for 4.5 WAR. They should part ways with him and be thrilled they have payroll relief and a fourth outfielder like Stubbs under cost control in the event Blackmon or Dickerson falter, or Cargo gets hurt again.
Not an impressive first move by Jeff Bridich as GM. It obviously wasn’t just Dan O’Dowd who was the problem in the Rockies front office.
And I failed to mention that the Rockies also have Brandon Barnes in his pre-arbitration years – and he’s basically a poor man’s version of Drew Stubbs.