Interesting Free Agent Comparison #1
With the free agent period now open, I’m going to make a habit of throwing up some free agent comparisons that might challenge the perceptions of the relative value of a few players. For various reasons, there are players who have performed pretty similarly, or project similarly going forward, but the general consensus has them as significantly different. I like pointing these cases out.
Let’s start with a pair of right fielders today. According to the Contract Crowdsourcing project, Nick Markakis is expected to sign for $33 million over three years, while Nori Aoki is expected to sign for $14 million over two years. According to Roch Kubotko, Markakis is going to do even better than the crowd thought, as the Orioles are reportedly talking with him about a four year deal; I think we can say with some certainty that Nori Aoki isn’t getting a four year deal this winter.
But now, let’s just look at some data. Here is Aoki and Markakis over the last three years.
| Name | PA | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | Off | Def | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nori Aoki | 1811 | 8% | 8% | 0.101 | 0.304 | 0.287 | 0.353 | 0.387 | 106 | 10.0 | -9.0 | 6.1 |
| Nick Markakis | 1881 | 9% | 11% | 0.117 | 0.299 | 0.279 | 0.342 | 0.396 | 104 | 6.0 | -30.3 | 4.0 |
There’s an error in the code that caused Aoki to be rated as an abysmal baserunner in 2014 — he wasn’t — so the numbers above won’t match what’s on Aoki’s player page or the leaderboards until the new code gets updated, but I’ve eliminated that error here. And removing that error makes it hard to argue that Markakis has been better at much of anything over the last few years. They’re basically the same type of player, only Aoki has been the better version of it.
They’re both high-contact, low-power guys, though Aoki is even better at avoiding strikeouts, so his BA/OBP are a bit higher. The defensive metrics also like him a bit more, though neither one is a big time asset in the field. Even if you decide that you think they’re equals in the field, that just serves to pull Markakis back up to Aoki’s level.
Markakis is two years younger, so it’s probably fair to project him for a slightly slower decline going forward, but even including the age factor, Steamer still sees Aoki and Markakis as equals, and that’s with the incorrect baserunning number factored into the projection. Factor that out, and Aoki inches ahead a little bit in the battle of slap-hitting right fielders.
But the perception is that Markakis is a lot better than Aoki, and he’s probably going to get paid a lot more. I’m not sure it’s reality, though.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
“interesting” constitues comparing Aoki and Markakis. This is going to be a long offseason.
Markakis will be paid more because, for some unknown reason, the world believes him to be a superlative fielder, even though that has been proven (for the most part) otherwise.
But whatever, I’m an O’s fan, and I’ll love Nicky forever. Since B-Rob left, he’s the only member of the old (terrible) guard left.
I feel the same, although in my observation both Markakis and Jones looked much better in the field this season than they had in recent years (and the advanced metrics seemed to agree).
From a broad standpoint, I think the promise shown by Markakis early in his career, and even in his injury-shortened 2012, is still influencing his perception across the league and perhaps still informing his contract negotiations. Aoki was a relatively under-the-radar import, never really projected or was expected to exceed his current profile (slightly above average contact hitter with decent speed and D), and he’s almost two years older.
Looking at this from the O’s perspective, it’s easy to make the argument that a combination of De Aza, Lough, and Pearce at the corner OF, or even bringing in Cuban import Dariel Alvarez, would equal or exceed the overall value of an OF where Markakis plays every game in RF. If that is the case (I believe it is), how can they justify signing him for 4 or even 3 years? Just about every meaningless platitude in the book has been used by teammates, managers, and fans to describe Markakis’ worth. At this point I would prefer to see them make moves that increase the team’s chances of getting to the WS, rather than those that look good from a PR standpoint. I’m in the minority among O’s fans, though.
It’s Baltimore, gentlemen. The Gods will not save you.
Unless you’re The Greek…
How many players are affected by the baserunning code error? Is it all and just happened to affect Aoki more than Markakis?
Wow, I was wondering about that Aoki bSR rating. Didn’t seem right.
Are there really people who think Markakis is especially good? Maybe I’m in too deep w/r/t baseball analysis but it seems pretty clear to me that he hasn’t been a particularly good player in anyone’s esteem for some time now.
See my post above. I don’t think he’s perceived as “especially good” depending on how you define that, but he is durable and has posted above average offensive seasons 8 out his 9 years in the league. His defense has been perceived by some as elite, though that perception has not borne out by advanced stats. And there is always the eternal hope (now fading fast as he emerges from his peak physical years) that he will fulfill his early-career promise (.300/.400/.500).
And sure enough, he just won a gold glove!
Take a look at the expected contract he is going to get and that will tell you that people and potentially people in charge of baseball teams think he’s good enough for 4 years and $50 plus million. I’m hoping my team is not of that mind.
I don’t disagree with the main point of this article, but I will say that the past 3 years for Markakis includes a 2012 shortened by hamate bone surgery and a broken thumb. There was a lot of talk his performance in both 2012 and 2013 was affected by these injuries. It’s hard to say for sure whether this is true, but the fact that he bounced back so strongly in 2014 would support it.
Still, accounting for that would, at best, lead you to conclude that Markakis is just as good as Aoki but not better by any significant margin.
Thank you. Was going to point out the same.
Plus 2 WAR/year is near $12mm right? 3/33 would be ok from that perspective (as long as you are ok throwing out ’13 as an aberration).
Aoki also had a pretty big platoon split last year and is two years older.
Aoki’s split is weird. It’s a reverse-split in favor of the smaller-sample that is driven by a .55 point BAbip split. Given that he has only about half the PA against LHP generally required to stabilize splits, it’s likely to be noisy. Basically, I don’t trust his split.
How do they keep the infield at AT+T Park? Aoki is such a ground ball hitter, and he had such a large home/away split in 2014.
Kansas City kept their infield as hard as anybody for ground balls, I’m wondering if playing in a park with a slow infield takes away his strength.
But 1/$5M is a good deal regardless.