The free agent outfield logjam may be starting to break. This morning, Alex Gordon agreed to a four year, $72 million deal to return to Kansas City. This is significantly less than both I (4/$92M) and the crowd (5/$90M) estimated at the start of the off-season, and given the prices inferior players have been commanding, this is probably one of the best value signings of the winter. It will be interesting to see if reports come out stating that Gordon turned down higher offers to stay in Kansas City.

Given his health risks and concerns about how much defensive value he’ll retain as he heads into his mid-30s, plus the fact that he was tied to draft pick compensation, there are some potential risks here, but at just $18 million per year, the Royals don’t really need Gordon to perform at previous levels in order to justify the contract. Steamer projects Gordon as a +3.5 WAR player in 2016, and if you start with that assessment and run it through the normal contract assumptions, you get $94 million in estimated value over the next four years. Even setting the aging curve to a more aggressive decline only pushes him down to $80 million if he is as good as Steamer expects.

ZIPS was slightly less aggressive, but even going with that forecast, Gordon’s worth $80 million over four years if he ages normally, and $67 million if he ages poorly. Because of his age and his defense-based value, Gordon may very well end up significantly overpaid by years three and four of this deal, but he’s also dramatically underpaid at the beginning of the deal, especially if he’s the +3.5 WAR guy that Steamer projects for 2016.

With Gordon off the market, the pursuits of Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes should become a little more clear. The Royals weren’t likely to be players for either of those two, so Gordon going back to KC is probably good news for both of those players.