Royals Re-Sign Alex Gordon
The free agent outfield logjam may be starting to break. This morning, Alex Gordon agreed to a four year, $72 million deal to return to Kansas City. This is significantly less than both I (4/$92M) and the crowd (5/$90M) estimated at the start of the off-season, and given the prices inferior players have been commanding, this is probably one of the best value signings of the winter. It will be interesting to see if reports come out stating that Gordon turned down higher offers to stay in Kansas City.
Given his health risks and concerns about how much defensive value he’ll retain as he heads into his mid-30s, plus the fact that he was tied to draft pick compensation, there are some potential risks here, but at just $18 million per year, the Royals don’t really need Gordon to perform at previous levels in order to justify the contract. Steamer projects Gordon as a +3.5 WAR player in 2016, and if you start with that assessment and run it through the normal contract assumptions, you get $94 million in estimated value over the next four years. Even setting the aging curve to a more aggressive decline only pushes him down to $80 million if he is as good as Steamer expects.
ZIPS was slightly less aggressive, but even going with that forecast, Gordon’s worth $80 million over four years if he ages normally, and $67 million if he ages poorly. Because of his age and his defense-based value, Gordon may very well end up significantly overpaid by years three and four of this deal, but he’s also dramatically underpaid at the beginning of the deal, especially if he’s the +3.5 WAR guy that Steamer projects for 2016.
With Gordon off the market, the pursuits of Justin Upton and Yoenis Cespedes should become a little more clear. The Royals weren’t likely to be players for either of those two, so Gordon going back to KC is probably good news for both of those players.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Anxious to hear from Bowden’s source(s): Did the Royals really open with a 4/$50M offer and then increase that offer by 50%? Or was Bowden’s original report just bullshit?
The Royals are notoriously tight-lipped. I highly doubt that report was correct.
Yeah, it didn’t make sense then and it looks even more phony/planted now.
For all the talk about how every franchise is savvy now and how advanced analytics have conquered everything, we still live in a world where Alex Gordon is going to get a contract HALF as large as the one Chris Davis turned down.
I’m not sure how you can rationalize Gordon being worth only half of what Davis is without using the phrase “chicks dig the long ball.”
Because defence is more volatile and less projectable then offence.
Nothing says “not volatile” like a guy who went from 7 WAR in 2013 to replacement level in 2014 and back to 5 WAR in 2015 without an injury.
Nowhere did I say that offence was not volatile.
How did a comparison between Chris Davis (career wRC+ 116) and Alex Gordon (career wRC+ 113) get mistaken for “offense versus defense?” Even if you totally leave aside defense they’re both good hitters, even if Gordon’s hitting skills are somewhat obscured by playing in a pitcher friendly ballpark and Davis’s are inflated by getting to hit 20 HR onto the OPACY flag court every year.
Its not offence vs defence. You asked how Chris Davis could possibly get twice as much as Gordon. And part of the reason is (as the article says) Gordon derives alot of his value from defence. Which is inherently less stable (especially for a 32 year old) then someone who derives alot of their value from offence, like Davis.
Chris Davis has a career 121 wRC+, BTW.
My mistake on the respective wRC+, I was looking at the wrong row on his FG page (his 2016 Steamer projection instead of the career number, which might actually be more relevant here).
One of these players is on the wrong side of 30. Guess which?
To add to Shirtless George Brett’s point about defense being more volatile, it also has a steeper age curve. In addition, club’s treat (as they should) overall value as non-linear due to the opportunity cost of PAs.
Ask Ryan Howard how steep the age curve is for sluggers who have contact issues. Unlike for Gordon, if Davis loses 20% of his power he’s an effectively worthless player given his other limitations.
What other limitations? The baserunning which has essentially graded out at the same level as Alex Gordon? Above-average 1B and serviceable outfield defense?
I sort of meant more “his inability to strike out fewer than 180 times a season” than baserunning or fielding. Losing a little pop means he’ll lose the HR and the walks but still hit for a low average, making him an effectively replacement level bat.
Davis is an excellent defensive first baseman and underrated baserunner, but it’s considered the least valuable fielding position for a reason.
I really thought this is the guy (out of the three remaining top outfielders) the White Sox should have signed. A high on base lefty that could field really fits in well with this bunch. Upton and Cespedes are both better than what they have, but the Sox already have plenty of low on base righty sluggers.
What is the value of not having to give up a draft pick to sign him?
I’m fuzzy on the details, but didn’t the Braves basically pay the Diamondbacks $10m (in bad contracts) to pick up Toussaint? (SP)
There is some value there but it’s largely canceled out by the fact that they don’t get the draft pick back they would have if he had signed elsewhere.
If you believe that Gordon would have signed elsewhere before next year’s draft, then this signing still costs them a draft pick. Just rather than it being their first-round pick, it’s a comp pick.
They still gave up a similar draft pick. There’s the opportunity cost of the draft pick they would have received if another team had signed him.
Based on some work done a few years back in 2013 and 2014, the cost of the 30ish overall pick is something like $15M
Good. Nice to hear when a player of Gordon’s caliber gives a discount to the team he’s been playing for his entire career. Clearly he values the opportunity to go to the playoffs, stay with the teammates he’s formed bonds with and perhaps compete for another championship. Royals need to find a starter to achieve that goal.
For my beloved Orioles, it means that unless Chris Davis comes to his senses soon and accepts that generous offer that Angelos put on the table (please don’t Chris!) they’re probably going to go hard after Cespedes and Upton, in that order. Cespedes is older but he doesn’t cost the O’s a draft pick so unless his demands are outrageous, he’s probably Duquette’s primary target right now.
Unless there’s a trade in the works? CarGo to Baltimore sounds nice to me. What would the Rocs want in return? Gausman would be a deal breaker.
Not certain at all that he gave any sort of discount; there may have simply been no other higher (or as high) competing offers out there.
Doesn’t seem right to call the contract “significantly less” than what the crowd predicted. It’s actually the precise AAV the crowd predicted, just one fewer year. I would say that’s pretty darn close actually.
Also not following how this is one of the better value signings off the offseason when ZiPS says that if he ages poorly it’s actually a slight overpay, and if he ages well then it’s $8 million surplus. To call it a steal would necessarily be to assume Steamer is right. If the ZiPS projections are accurate, then this is more along the lines of the contract that Alex Gordon should have been expected to get.
The guarantee on the crowd is $90m. If I guess 4/88 and you guess 5/92, after rounding the mini crowd’s guess is 5/90.
Somehow I did not see this, the most recent comment, before I commented myself.
Dave, I don’t think I’d characterize the crowd as being significantly off. The AAV is the same. Sure, going into his age 36 season, Gordon is less than even money to get another contract with an AAV of $18 million, but assuming modest inflation and that he is still a useful player at least in the eyes of someone, he should still command an 8-digit salary. Names like Alex Rios and Torii Hunter come to mind. Hell, Chase Utley’s rotting corpse still got $7 million.
Agreed – I think what really opened the market was the lack of interest other teams had in signing Gordon to a 5 year deal. An AAV of 18M over four years is much more palatable to a club like the Royals then 18M (or even 16M) over 5. I honestly don’t think Gordon took a huge home town discount here and once a 5 year deal was out of the picture signing with the Royals at 4/72 probably made a lot more sense for his family than something like 4/75 with the White Sox or Cardinals.