I’m an idiot, and looked up where the All-Star Game was last year. The All-Star Game this year is in Miami. So, yes, corrections below.

The story of the first few weeks of this season has almost certainly been the arrival of Eric Thames, who has returned from Korea to look like one of the game’s best power hitters. While Thames won’t keep hitting like Babe Ruth in his prime, unless there’s some hidden exploitable flaw that no one has found yet, he’s probably going to be a pretty decent hitter for the Brewers for the next few months.

And if he does keep hitting even near what the projections think he’ll be going forward, it’s going to be nearly impossible to fill out the first base portion of the National League All-Star ballot. Thames has simply made the most crowded position in baseball even more so.

Just for fun, let’s look at the top 15 hitters by our rest-of-season wOBA projections from the combined ZIPS/Steamer forecasts. I’ll highlight the NL first baseman in this table.

By our forecasts, five of the 13 best hitters in baseball over the remainder of the season play first base in the National League. That doesn’t even account for what has already happened, with Thames and Freeman putting themselves in very strong positions to have All-Star numbers by the break. And even with the DH now being used in every All-Star Game, the reality is that there’s really only room to carry four first baseman on the roster.

And we haven’t even mentioned that, of these five players, there are probably only going to be three spots available, because Wil Myers is very likely to be the Padres best representative, and as their best player, is nearly guaranteed a spot in the game given that the contest is in his home park. If we assume Myers is going to get one spot, that leaves three chances for some combination of Freeman, Thames, Votto, Rizzo, and Goldschmidt. Sorry Brandon Belt, but we’re going to pretend you don’t exist, and I hope you don’t have any All-Star incentives in your contract.

Rizzo is probably the most likely bet to win the fan’s vote as the starter, given the Cubs current popularity and the fact that their fans elected their entire starting infield last year. Freeman seems like something close to a lock, given his start and the likelihood that the Braves won’t have a lot of other compelling options to pick from. So that leaves Thames, Votto, and Goldschmidt probably fighting over one spot.

Yeah. All-Star rosters aren’t a thing that really matter, but I can’t remember a time where some obviously great players were effectively guaranteed of being shut out of the midsummer classic.