The Most Impossible Task of the Summer
I’m an idiot, and looked up where the All-Star Game was last year. The All-Star Game this year is in Miami. So, yes, corrections below.
The story of the first few weeks of this season has almost certainly been the arrival of Eric Thames, who has returned from Korea to look like one of the game’s best power hitters. While Thames won’t keep hitting like Babe Ruth in his prime, unless there’s some hidden exploitable flaw that no one has found yet, he’s probably going to be a pretty decent hitter for the Brewers for the next few months.
And if he does keep hitting even near what the projections think he’ll be going forward, it’s going to be nearly impossible to fill out the first base portion of the National League All-Star ballot. Thames has simply made the most crowded position in baseball even more so.
Just for fun, let’s look at the top 15 hitters by our rest-of-season wOBA projections from the combined ZIPS/Steamer forecasts. I’ll highlight the NL first baseman in this table.
| Name | wOBA |
|---|---|
| Mike Trout | 0.410 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.403 |
| Joey Votto | 0.385 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 0.383 |
| Paul Goldschmidt | 0.382 |
| Miguel Cabrera | 0.382 |
| Freddie Freeman | 0.380 |
| Nolan Arenado | 0.379 |
| Josh Donaldson | 0.378 |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 0.374 |
| Kris Bryant | 0.371 |
| Mookie Betts | 0.371 |
| Eric Thames | 0.367 |
| Manny Machado | 0.364 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 0.359 |
By our forecasts, five of the 13 best hitters in baseball over the remainder of the season play first base in the National League. That doesn’t even account for what has already happened, with Thames and Freeman putting themselves in very strong positions to have All-Star numbers by the break. And even with the DH now being used in every All-Star Game, the reality is that there’s really only room to carry four first baseman on the roster.
And we haven’t even mentioned that, of these five players, there are probably only going to be three spots available, because Wil Myers is very likely to be the Padres best representative, and as their best player, is nearly guaranteed a spot in the game given that the contest is in his home park. If we assume Myers is going to get one spot, that leaves three chances for some combination of Freeman, Thames, Votto, Rizzo, and Goldschmidt. Sorry Brandon Belt, but we’re going to pretend you don’t exist, and I hope you don’t have any All-Star incentives in your contract.
Rizzo is probably the most likely bet to win the fan’s vote as the starter, given the Cubs current popularity and the fact that their fans elected their entire starting infield last year. Freeman seems like something close to a lock, given his start and the likelihood that the Braves won’t have a lot of other compelling options to pick from. So that leaves Thames, Votto, and Goldschmidt probably fighting over one spot.
Yeah. All-Star rosters aren’t a thing that really matter, but I can’t remember a time where some obviously great players were effectively guaranteed of being shut out of the midsummer classic.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
The All Star game was in Petco last year. It will be in the lime green paradise that is Marlins Park this season.
Hate being that guy, but it kind of changes the last few paragraphs of the piece.
The Padres still need a player representative – if not Wil Myers, then perhaps Brad Hand. Selecting Hand would make things easier on the 1B front. A continued Ryan Zimmerman hot streak would make things harder.
Yeah, I’m a moron. The post has been updated to reflect that sentiment.
Dave, you’re keeping people on their toes. That’s not a bad thing.
I keep thinking the Padres rep will be whichever of Buchter, Hand, Maurer, Capps has the best superficial numbers at the ASB. Still doesn’t do too much to alleviate the 1B log jam
I wouldn’t be surprised if Margot is sitting on 10 HR & 15 SB by then either.
Freeman, Votto and Myers are all on teams that will likely only get one representative—and each of them are the best player on their team by a wide margin.
Hey, the Reds are leading their division, powered by what will likely* be Eugenio Suarez’s first MVP** season.
*not a literal definition of “likely”
**not a literal definition of “MVP”
Of all of the crazy Eric Thames stats that have been posted in the last few days, the fact that he’s got 15 games of relevant big league data and Zips/Steamer already think he’s a top 15 bat in baseball moving forward might be the craziest.
It’s probably because of the uncertainty around him that he’s able to jump so much in the first place. It’s not bullish on Ryan Zimmerman or Avisail Garcia as top 10 hitters in baseball because there are a few years of data saying the opposite.
Yeah there are definitely players who would have previous data to hold them back, but in 15 games Zips/Steamer have gone from “this guy might be interesting” to “we think he’s a schooch better at the plate than Manny Machado”. That’s crazy.
Not a top 15 bat. The chart Dave posted was a ranking by wOBA. He’s projected for a wRC+ of 124/128 by ZiPS/Steamer and WAR at 1.8/2.3
What’s a little surprising is how many of these NL first basemen are on teams that won’t likely finish anywhere near the playoffs.
With that said, I think it was brilliant of Milwaukee to snag Thames on such a low-risk deal. Not like they were blocking anyone, nor were they breaking the bank.
Cyborg Eric Thames for ASG starter!
YEAH BUT WAIT UNTIL 20XX (TBD) WHEN HALF THE ROSTER WILL BE PADRES!!!
Sorry, Padres’ fans have to jump on whatever air time we get. Myers and Rodney were the reps last year. I think getting two was the (generous) home team bounce.
Serious question: Any chance that Thames is on the ballot as an outfielder? That’s where he used to play before the KBO, and the AS ballot is sometimes wonky about capturing position changes.
Gotta say I think the days of Cutch being a top 15 bat are over but I hope that happens.