Top Weekend College Games by (Maybe) Predictive Stats

by
April 24, 2015

Yesterday, the author published a post claiming to include the top players by (maybe) predictive stats from college baseball’s most competitive conferences.

What follows are three weekend series both (a) likely to feature a number of players whose names appeared within that post* and also (b) scheduled for broadcast on readily available network or video stream. MPS+ and MPS- are index metrics based on those (maybe) predictive stats and designed for batters and pitchers, respectively. In each case, 100 is average, while above 100 is better for batters and below 100 is better for pitchers. Read more about the author’s questionable methodology here.

*Except for the Ivy League game, that is, whose players weren’t featured in that post but which the author has included per orders of his capital-W Whim.

***

Pennsylvania at Columbia
Who It Features
The top-three hitters in the Ivy League. Columbia senior outfielder Gus Craig (158 PA, 136 MSP+) was the Jose Bautista of the Ivy League last season, producing an expected strikeout rate (11.1%) about a third lower than league average and expected ISO (.153) roughly 50% higher than it. His expected strikeout rate (18.1%) is higher than last year, but also so is his regressed isolated-power figure (.192). Teammate Joe Falcone (153 PA, 143 MPS+) is older than most of his teammates — owing, that is, to how he served as a medic for the Marines during tours in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Kuwait. Penn senior Mitch Montaldo (132 PA, 137 MPS+) has produced the conference’s second-best maybe-predictive batting line while also serving as the school’s starting shortstop. Junior second baseman Ryan Mincher (123 PA, 124 MPS+), meanwhile, is another Penn hitter who features above-average skills on both offense and defense. Columbia right-hander Adam Cline (38.2 IP, 78 MPS-) and Penn left-hander Ronnie Glenn (43.2 IP, 84 MPS-) have recorded the third- and fifth-best pitching lines, respectively, in the Ivy League. They start the second and fourth games, respectively.

When It’s On (ET)
Saturday at 1:00pm
Saturday at 3:30pm
Sunday at 1:00pm
Sunday at 3:30pm

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How to Watch It
Watch ESPN on Saturday (link).
Ivy League Digital Network otherwise (link).

***

Texas A&M at LSU
Who It Features
The top two clubs in the country, according to most relevant sources. LSU features three of the SEC’s top-10 hitters by the maybe predictive stats: junior shortstop Alex Bregman (196 PA, 141 MPS+), senior second baseman Jared Foster (147 PA, 127 MPS+), and senior catcher Kade Scivicque (152 PA, 127 MPS+). Texas A&M has one, as well: junior left fielder Logan Taylor (153 PA, 136 MPS+). The two clubs played the opening game of the series last night (Thursday), with LSU winning it in the bottom of the ninth after A&M had tied the game in the top half of that same inning. Talented freshmen right-handers are scheduled to start both of LSU’s next two games: Alex Lange (57.2 IP, 86 MPS-) on Friday, Austin Bain (29.1 IP, 91 MPS-) on Saturday.

When It’s On (ET)
Friday at 8:00pm
Saturday at 2:00pm

How to Watch It
SEC Network Plus on Friday (link).
ESPN or Watch ESPN on Saturday (link).

***

UC Irvine at Cal State Fullerton
Who It Features
Two possible second-round picks, according to lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel. Fullerton junior right-hander Thomas Eshelman (73.1 IP, 81 MPS-) is scheduled to start Friday; teammate and other junior right-hander Justin Garza (50.2 IP, 93 MPS-), on Saturday. The latter possesses greater arm speed, but the former has produced better numbers. Of particular note is Eshelman’s control: he’s recorded just five walks this season, or fewer than 2% of the batters he’s faced. Irvine freshman center fielder Keston Hiura (158 PA, 125 MPS+) has produced the third-best offensive line in the Big West by the maybe predictive stats. Which, that’s notable owing both to Hiura’s class year (i.e. freshman) and place on the defensive spectrum (i.e. towards the more challenging end of it).

When It’s On (ET)
Friday at 10:00pm
Saturday at 9:00pm
Sunday at 4:00pm

How to Watch It
Watch ESPN on Friday (link).
Big West TV otherwise (link).





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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