ZiPS Stretch Run Update: One Last Normal Day (Sunday Update)
Quick Sunday update. The Yankees lost on Saturday, furthering the potential for chaos, and the four-way tie is an increased possibility, at 6.5%. The chances of bonus baseball overall now stand at 57.6%. Good news for us and good news for the Rays, who will play one of these four teams later this week. It’s not something that’s captured in projections, but it’s interesting that if the Rays go full B-team, it reduces the chances of a tie, and as a result, a slight reprieve for the team they eventually play. Jameson Taillon is back in as the starter and Joan Adon looks to be Washington’s starter, which is to Boston’s benefit according to the projections.
The NL West remains unresolved, but simple: if the Dodgers win and the Giants lose, they play a tiebreak game. ZiPS has a 19.8% chance of a tiebreaker game, with the overall division as San Franciso 90.0%, Los Angeles 10.0%. Freddy Peralta is being held back for the playoffs with Brett Anderson going today. It makes sense too; it’s in Milwaukee’s interest to leave one of these teams more susceptible to getting knocked out of the playoffs by the Cardinals later this week.
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/3 | Blue Jays | Hyun Jin Ryu | Orioles | Bruce Zimmermann | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 10/3 | Nationals | Joan Adon | Red Sox | Chris Sale | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 10/3 | Yankees | Jameson Taillon | Rays | Michael Wacha | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| 10/3 | Mariners | Tyler Anderson | Angels | Reid Detmers | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Team | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston | 52.4% | 32.4% | 84.8% |
| New York | 40.9% | 38.0% | 78.8% |
| Toronto | 3.8% | 17.7% | 21.5% |
| Seattle | 3.0% | 11.8% | 14.8% |
| Scenario | BOS | NYA | TOR | SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Beats Washington on Sunday | 15.2% | -2.8% | -7.2% | -5.2% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Sunday | 7.1% | 10.6% | -21.5% | 3.8% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Sunday | 5.0% | 6.3% | 3.5% | -14.8% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Sunday | 2.7% | -20.0% | 10.3% | 7.0% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Sunday | -2.9% | 21.1% | -11.1% | -7.1% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Sunday | -4.0% | -5.1% | 11.2% | -2.1% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Sunday | -5.2% | -7.0% | -3.8% | 16.0% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Sunday | -23.7% | 4.2% | 11.5% | 8.0% |
| Game | Leverage |
|---|---|
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday | 0.41 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Sunday | 0.39 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Sunday | 0.33 |
| Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Sunday | 0.31 |
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/3 | Dodgers | Walker Buehler | Brewers | Brett Anderson | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| 10/3 | Giants | Logan Webb | Padres | Reiss Knehr | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 10/4 | Giants | Alex Wood | Dodgers | Max Scherzer | 53.3% | 46.7% |
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Below you’ll find today’s ZiPS stretch run update. For details on just what’s going on here, please refer to my original article describing all these mathnanigans.
American League Wild Card
The Yankees and their bats were largely quiet against the Rays on Friday, but they still basically control their own destiny as the team in the first Wild Card spot, albeit the one with by far the toughest opposition. The Blue Jays fended off a late-inning Baltimore rally and held on to the win, but the Red Sox winning was just as damaging to Toronto’s playoff hopes as the Jays’ win was helpful. Toronto’s still one-in-five to make the postseason, but needs some help now; since the Blue Jays are already assumed to be strongly favored to beat the Orioles, they get an even larger boost from a Nationals win.
I’m leaving the Yankees with a Luis Severino-led reliever-ish game on Sunday, but it’s still possible that Jameson Taillon will start; he was able to throw off a mound on Friday.
The Mariners dropped back to fourth place in the playoff probabilities with their loss to the Angels. They’re now tied in the standings with the Jays again, and while both Wild Card spots are in play, ZiPS sees their games as more coin-flippy than Boston’s or Toronto’s, with those teams strongly favored in both of their remaining games.
We still have a 42% chance of bonus baseball and the Yankees losing boosted the probability of a four-way tie slightly to 1.0%.
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/2 | Blue Jays | Alek Manoah | Orioles | John Means | 71.1% | 28.9% |
| 10/2 | Nationals | Josiah Gray | Red Sox | Tanner Houck | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 10/2 | Yankees | Jordan Montgomery | Rays | Shane Baz | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| 10/2 | Mariners | Chris Flexen | Angels | Jhonathan Diaz | 51.7% | 48.3% |
| 10/3 | Blue Jays | Hyun Jin Ryu | Orioles | Bruce Zimmermann | 65.7% | 34.3% |
| 10/3 | Nationals | Erick Fedde | Red Sox | Chris Sale | 43.3% | 56.7% |
| 10/3 | Yankees | Luis Severino | Rays | Michael Wacha | 52.7% | 47.3% |
| 10/3 | Mariners | Tyler Anderson | Angels | Reid Detmers | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Team | Wild Card 1 | Wild Card 2 | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 76.2% | 18.8% | 95.0% |
| Boston | 20.3% | 51.9% | 72.1% |
| Toronto | 2.4% | 19.3% | 21.7% |
| Seattle | 1.1% | 10.0% | 11.2% |
| Scenario | BOS | NYA | TOR | SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Beats Washington on Sunday | 16.5% | -1.2% | -9.9% | -5.4% |
| Boston Beats Washington on Saturday | 15.6% | -1.2% | -9.5% | -4.9% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Saturday | 12.1% | 3.1% | -18.9% | 3.8% |
| Baltimore Beats Toronto on Sunday | 11.7% | 3.1% | -18.4% | 3.6% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Saturday | 5.3% | 1.3% | 3.0% | -9.6% |
| Los Angeles Beats Seattle on Sunday | 5.2% | 1.3% | 2.9% | -9.5% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Sunday | 1.4% | -6.4% | 3.4% | 1.6% |
| Tampa Bay Beats New York on Saturday | 1.3% | -5.5% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Saturday | -1.2% | 5.0% | -2.6% | -1.2% |
| New York Beats Tampa Bay on Sunday | -1.2% | 5.0% | -2.6% | -1.2% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Saturday | -5.0% | -1.4% | 7.9% | -1.5% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Saturday | -5.0% | -1.1% | -2.6% | 8.8% |
| Seattle Beats Los Angeles on Sunday | -5.9% | -1.9% | -3.0% | 10.8% |
| Toronto Beats Baltimore on Sunday | -6.0% | -1.5% | 9.4% | -1.9% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Sunday | -22.8% | 1.6% | 13.8% | 7.5% |
| Washington Beats Boston on Saturday | -24.0% | 1.7% | 14.6% | 7.7% |
| Game | Leverage |
|---|---|
| Washington vs. Boston on Saturday | 0.40 |
| Washington vs. Boston on Sunday | 0.39 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Sunday | 0.28 |
| Toronto vs. Baltimore on Saturday | 0.27 |
| Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Sunday | 0.20 |
| Seattle vs. Los Angeles on Saturday | 0.18 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Sunday | 0.11 |
| New York vs. Tampa Bay on Saturday | 0.11 |
National League West
Both the Dodgers and Giants won again on Friday, which means Los Angeles can no longer win the division without forcing a bonus game on Monday. The biggest news, of course, is Clayton Kershaw exiting Friday night’s game with forearm tightness after feeling something go in his elbow in the second inning. Given that Kershaw already lost two months to the same injury this season, it’s potentially a very big deal (he’ll undergo testing today), and neither he nor manager Dave Roberts sounded especially bullish on the left-hander returning any time soon. The Dodgers should feel especially fortunate they were able to land Max Scherzer in July. The Giants are now at 98.3% odds to take the division.
| Day | Home Team | Starter | Road Team | Road Starter | Home Team Wins | Road Team Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/2 | Dodgers | Julio Urías | Brewers | Corbin Burnes | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| 10/2 | Giants | Kevin Gausman | Padres | Joe Musgrove | 60.8% | 39.2% |
| 10/3 | Dodgers | Walker Buehler | Brewers | Freddy Peralta | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| 10/3 | Giants | Logan Webb | Padres | Reiss Knehr | 66.7% | 33.3% |
| 10/4 | Giants | Alex Wood | Dodgers | Max Scherzer | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Giants just don’t lose. They don’t have bad games and when they have a bad inning they shut things down and come back. Their hitters seem to know what pitches are coming (especially in the first inning) and don’t miss them when they get what they expect. And their relievers are all on fire and have been all season (the pen is actually a better story than their corps of mercenary starters). I think they could roll all the way through the world series, then show up in 2022 and finish below 500. It’s just one of those years for them.
giants are interesting as hell oscillating between good to championship level. i only think their ws odds are slightly diminished by the fact that their roster is so deep rather than top-heavy, but home series through the playoffs ought to help balance that a bit.
I can’t remember who said this–for some reason I associate it with Tommy Lasorda–but it’s a pretty safe bet that that vast majority of teams will win at least 1/3rd of their games and lose at least 1/3rd of their games every single year. There are very strong pressures towards 50/50 chances in games, and the season is long enough that extreme records tend to regress as more games are played. So even as awesome as the Giants have been this year, next year them winding up around .500 wouldn’t surprise me that much.
Interesting to note that as good as the Giants have been they have not broken out of the “range” of 1/3rd wins – 1/3rd losses. The breakeven point on this is 108–wins to get above the range and losses to drop below it. It’s pretty rare for anyone to finish outside of this range, but it’s much more common for teams to fall below that range than be above because it’s easier for everything to go wrong (with injuries, specifically) than for everything to go right This year, it’s the Orioles and the D-Backs. In 2019, two teams had 108 losses or more, and although one of them was exactly at 108. In 2018 it was one team (the Orioles, who have been totally putrid during this stretch).
The last 108 win team was in 2018–the Red Sox. To find the last team who did break 108 you have to go back to 2001 (where the Mariners managed to obliterate that mark with 116 wins). This year, even if the Giants win today, no one will hit 108 much less surpass it. With the Dodgers being one game behind them, no matter what happens, it’s madness that a team that won at least 105 games and possibly 106 is going to be in a wild-card game and didn’t win the division.