Is Vladimir Guerrero a Hall of Famer?

When I saw that only two players had been elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame earlier this week, my thoughts immediately turned to future years. With only two deserving candidates going in, there was still going to be a log jam. How would that impact the players who are coming onto the ballot next year? There are three who have a real case for being in the Hall of Fame: Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Ivan Rodriguez.

Ramirez and Rodriguez seem pretty easy to peg. Ramirez — one of the great right-handed hitters to ever grace this planet, but also a player with several off-field transgressions, including two failed performance enhancing drug tests — seems likely to get a middling level of support, similar to Mark McGwire. Enough to remain comfortably on the ballot, but not enough to be near induction. Rodriguez will vault firmly into the middle of the pack at the very least, and stands a strong shot at induction on his first go-round. He has 13 Gold Gloves, the most of any catcher, and while he had PED whispers, so did Mike Piazza, and he just got in. The tide seems to be turning on the “Steroids Era.”

Guerrero, however, is a total wild card. At least to me. I could see him vaulting into strong induction contention, or I could see him scraping the bottom of the barrel. It’s hard to get a good read on his candidacy.

Guerrero’s case boils down to who you regard as his peer group. Do you look at his statistical peers, or do you look at him as an MVP-winner? In which category does he belong?

First, let’s take a look at the statistical peer group. Here are all the right fielders who produced between 50 and 70 WAR in heir career, with their JAWS and Hall of Stats scores included for extra measure:

Career Stats, Right Fielders w 50.1-69.9 WAR

Name	HoF	JAWS	HoS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+	BsR	Off	Def	WAR
Harry Heilmann	Yes	59.6	136	8960	183	113	.342	.410	.520	.427	144	-5.1	519.2	-129.1	69.0
Larry Walker	No	58.6	150	8030	383	230	.313	.400	.565	.412	140	21.5	427.9	3.5	68.7
Manny Ramirez	No	54.6	128	9774	555	38	.312	.411	.585	.418	153	-35.0	624.8	-276.6	66.4
Dwight Evans	No	52.0	122	10569	385	78	.272	.370	.470	.375	129	-9.0	348.4	-68.6	65.1
Tony Gwynn	Yes	54.9	126	10232	135	319	.338	.388	.459	.370	132	11.3	401.5	-92.2	65.0
Reggie Smith	No	51.6	124	8050	314	137	.287	.366	.489	.379	137	-2.5	331.7	25.5	64.6
Gary Sheffield	No	49.1	114	10947	509	253	.292	.393	.514	.391	141	9.7	575.7	-300.9	62.1
Joe Jackson	No	57.4	128	5690	54	202	.356	.423	.517	.443	165	-10.6	418.6	-49.1	60.5
Sammy Sosa	No	51.0	115	9896	609	234	.273	.344	.534	.370	124	-7.9	300.4	-8.1	60.1
Dave Winfield	Yes	50.8	113	12358	465	223	.283	.353	.475	.364	128	5.9	406.5	-243.9	59.9
Andre Dawson	Yes	53.5	121	10768	438	314	.279	.323	.482	.350	117	18.8	230.5	-11.8	59.5
Bobby Abreu	No	50.7	109	10081	288	400	.291	.395	.475	.378	129	33.8	415.6	-143.4	59.2
Bobby Bonds	No	49.4	110	8090	332	460	.268	.353	.471	.368	130	28.9	303.9	-34.6	57.1
Ichiro Suzuki	No	51.0	105	10101	113	498	.314	.356	.406	.330	105	94.5	164.5	65.2	56.7
Elmer Flick	Yes	47.2	103	6414	48	330	.313	.389	.445	.399	145	16.4	365.4	-41.8	56.0
Willie Keeler	Yes	45.1	98	9594	33	495	.341	.388	.415	.383	124	13.3	345.0	-78.5	55.7
Brian Giles	No	44.1	97	7836	287	109	.291	.400	.502	.388	136	17.9	384.8	-80.8	54.9
Vlad. Guerrero	No	50.2	110	9059	449	181	.318	.379	.553	.390	136	-49.8	370.4	-115.0	54.4
Kiki Cuyler	Yes	40.8	87	8098	128	328	.321	.386	.474	.393	126	54.1	334.7	-45.1	52.9
Harry Hooper	Yes	41.5	82	10244	75	375	.281	.368	.387	.363	116	-2.4	188.4	-30.5	52.3
Enos Slaughter	Yes	45.1	94	9084	169	71	.300	.382	.453	.384	126	8.3	286.6	-71.5	51.4
Jack Clark	No	42.1	94	8230	340	77	.267	.379	.476	.377	138	-10.0	349.1	-135.7	50.6
Sam Rice	Yes	41.8	81	10246	34	351	.322	.374	.427	.372	113	9.3	180.0	-33.0	50.3

SOURCE: FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference, Hall of Stats

As you can see, statistically, Guerrero is no slam dunk. He’s middle of the pack in many stats, though he grades out well in home runs, batting average and wOBA. He isn’t first in any category, grades out poorly on defense, and is dead last as a base runner. Guerrero was a really bad base runner. Of the 3,681 qualified position players in major league history, only 11 have/had a worse BsR than did Guerrero. Half of those 11 were catchers (or came up as catchers) and none of them were outfielders. Among the 1,523 qualified outfielders, Guerrero is dead last, and it’s not even remotely close. That matters. To me, anyway. I still remember Guerrero costing the Angels’ a potential rally in Game One of the 2005 American League Division Series with a caught stealing on an ill-advised hit-and-run.

Speaking of the postseason, Guerrero wasn’t so great in the postseason. People are often fond of giving extra credit for great postseason performances, but we rarely look to demerit for poor postseason performances. And that’s probably fair. But it’s definitely eyebrow-raising when a guy with a .931 career OPS could only manage a .664 OPS in the postseason. That poor postseason OPS is partially dragged down by his odorous final postseason with the Rangers, when he hit just .220/.242/.271 across 62 plate appearances. But two points there. One, Guerrero was still a good hitter that season, to the tune of a 119 wRC+ in the regular season. And two, even if you remove 2010, his postseason OPS is still a comparatively poor .740, across 126 PA. He only hit two postseason home runs, and disappeared for whole series, like when he went 1-for-20 in the 2005 ALCS.

But Guerrero was also an MVP. That’s a pretty big gold star on your resume. It’s also not the end all, be all. Of the 124 MVPs who are or were eligible to be voted into the Hall of Fame, only 66 — or 53% — have plaques in Cooperstown. And that still might be a touch high. Take a look at this breakdown.

MVPs in the Hall of Fame

Player Type	Overall	1 MVP	2+ MVPs
Hall of Famers	66	43	23
Total	124	97	27
% HoFers	53%	44%	85%

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Full data here: http://tinyurl.com/hsxngop

While it’s overwhelmingly likely that a player with two-plus MVPs can assure himself a place in Cooperstown, the one-timers are less than a 50-50 proposition. Is that fair, though? I mean, not all players who produce an all-world season go on to have an all-world career. In fact, if we look at a custom leaderboard of these 124 MVP winners, we see that 25 of them had a career WAR less than 35. So, let’s look at the MVPs who tallied between 50 and 70 WAR, just to make it a little more fair of a comparison:

MVPs in the Hall of Fame, 50.1-69.9 WAR

Name	WAR	HoF?
Larry Walker	68.7	No
Willie McCovey	67.4	Yes
Barry Larkin	67.0	Yes
Robin Yount	66.5	Yes
Harmon Killebrew	66.1	Yes
Lou Boudreau	64.5	Yes
Yogi Berra	63.7	Yes
Ernie Banks	63.3	Yes
Willie Stargell	62.9	Yes
Joe Torre	62.3	Yes but no
Dennis Eckersley	61.8	Yes
Dazzy Vance	61.6	Yes
Dick Allen	61.3	No
Hank Greenberg	61.1	Yes
Ryne Sandberg	60.9	Yes
Hal Newhouser	60.7	Yes
Joe Gordon	60.6	Yes
Sammy Sosa	60.1	No
Andre Dawson	59.5	Yes
Keith Hernandez	59.4	No
Jackie Robinson	57.2	Yes
Carl Hubbell	56.5	Yes
Jeff Kent	56.1	No
Ken Boyer	54.8	No
Joe Medwick	54.6	Yes
Sandy Koufax	54.5	Yes
Gabby Hartnett	53.7	Yes
George Sisler	51.9	Yes
Jim Rice	50.8	Yes
Mickey Cochrane	50.6	Yes
Bob Elliott	50.5	No
Orlando Cepeda	50.3	Yes

SOURCE: Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs

Well, that’s more like it. Of the 32 players who won MVP and had between 50-70 WAR, 24 of them (or 75%) were elected to the Hall of Fame as players. (Joe Torre is in the Hall, but as a manager.) That’s a pretty strong point in favor of Guerrero. If he had another MVP, obviously, his case would be much stronger, but he did finish in the top five three other times (2002, 2005 and 2007).

And yet, the ballot is still going to be super crowded next year. There have been outfielders in his class who have been one-and-dones in recent years — Kenny Lofton (18 votes in 2013), Jim Edmonds (11 votes this year), Brian Giles (0 votes last year) and Luis Gonzalez (five votes in 2014) — and while Gary Sheffield, Larry Walker and Sammy Sosa remain on the ballot, they haven’t garnered much support thus far.

Walker, in particular, seems like a roadblock. Walker has an MVP, and is a fellow sentimental former Expos player, and compiled far more wins than did Guerrero. Walker scores higher in both JAWS and the Hall of Stats, and yet his high-water mark was 22.9% in 2012. Walker has the road-stats bias, but he not only didn’t spend his whole career at Coors Field, he also posted a .278/.370/.495 line on the road for his career, and hit 168 homers and stole 109 bases on the road. He’s just one of 49 players in the Away 100-100 Club. I’d find it hard to put Guerrero over Walker on any ballot.

And it’s not just Walker. Next year’s Hall of Fame ballot features 19 players who totaled 40+ career WAR, as well as three highly regarded closers.

We haven’t discussed peak value yet, and with good reason. But let’s do that, briefly, in the context of next year’s ballot. Guerrero doesn’t really separate himself from the field in that regard. He had five seasons with five WAR or better. Comparing him to the other 21 players that will be the most prominent on next year’s ballot, you see that his five best seasons (not consecutive, just five best) aren’t a difference maker.

Five Best Seasons, 2017 Hall of Fame Ballot Luminaries

Name	WAR	5 Best Years	Best	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
Barry Bonds	164.4	57.8	12.7	12.5	11.9	10.5	10.2
Roger Clemens	133.7	45.0	10.7	8.2	8.4	9.2	8.5
Curt Schilling	79.7	39.5	9.3	8.3	8.2	7.2	6.5
Jeff Bagwell	80.2	38.0	8.0	7.8	7.8	7.7	6.7
Sammy Sosa	60.1	33.6	9.9	7.1	5.8	5.5	5.3
Tim Raines	66.4	32.6	7.2	6.7	6.7	6.0	6.0
Larry Walker	68.7	32.4	9.1	7.6	5.4	5.3	5.0
Gary Sheffield	62.1	31.7	7.3	6.6	6.5	6.5	4.8
Vladimir Guerrero	54.4	31.2	7.1	6.7	6.2	5.9	5.3
Mike Mussina	82.2	30.8	6.9	6.4	6.0	6.1	5.4
Edgar Martinez	65.5	30.7	7.0	6.1	6.0	5.9	5.7
Ivan Rodriguez	68.7	30.0	6.8	6.4	6.2	5.6	5.0
Manny Ramirez	66.4	29.9	7.5	5.9	5.8	5.4	5.3
Fred McGriff	56.9	28.8	6.6	6.4	5.5	5.5	4.8
Javier Vazquez	54.0	28.6	6.5	6.1	6.0	5.2	4.8
Jeff Kent	56.1	27.4	7.4	6.7	4.9	4.2	4.2
J.D. Drew	45.9	27.2	8.6	5.6	4.8	4.2	4.0
Mike Cameron	50.7	26.1	5.5	5.5	5.3	5.3	4.5
Jorge Posada	44.3	26.1	6.1	6.0	5.6	4.3	4.1
Lee Smith	26.6	13.1	2.9	2.7	2.7	2.4	2.4
Trevor Hoffman	26.1	13.1	3.1	2.9	2.6	2.3	2.2
Billy Wagner	24.2	12.3	3.6	2.3	2.2	2.1	2.1

SOURCE: FanGraphs

You can see here that like Ken Griffey Jr. did, Bonds, Clemens, Schilling and Bagwell can make a good peak-value claim. And Sammy Sosa is sort of separated from the pack. But after him, there are 10 players within a five-win band. That’s where Guerrero is. Again, below Sheffield and Walker. And also, by the way, below the banished Edmonds, whose five-year peak totals 34.0 WAR (and Edmonds still has a six-win season to boot following his top five). On Guerrero’s Hall of Stats page, proprietor Adam Darowski has his value at 50% peak, 50% career. That’s not the breakdown of a guy who can get by touting his peak value.

Vladimir Guerrero was/is a very famous player. He won an MVP award, and came close three other times. He had a marvelous career, and was an outstanding hitter. But even allowing for his arm, he was a horrible defender, and an even worse base runner. He doesn’t have a great peak-value argument and, statistically, finds himself squarely in the middle of the pack. No one is going to complain if he is voted into the Hall of Fame, but on a crowded ballot he is merely one of the qualified candidates, rather than one of the most qualified candidates.