Javier Baez and the Cubs Extreme Second Basemen

Winter ball in Puerto Rico wrapped up at the end of January, with Javier Baez attempting to improve his plate discipline problems after a short stint in the majors at the end of 2014. That stint, as most of us are aware, featured him striking out 41% of the time he came to the plate. Unfortunately, Baez didn’t seem to improve that aspect of his game very much while playing for the Cangrejeros de Santurce, as he went 11-43 with five walks and 21 strikeouts during the regular winter season. For those without a calculator handy, that’s a 44% strikeout rate. His walk rate improved to 10% (6.6% in 2014 MLB), so we can say there was some positive news to be claimed from his time there.

We have barely enough plate appearances for Baez from the winter league to know whether these rate statistics actually hold water, and it certainly doesn’t bode well that Baez struck out so often in Puerto Rico against the quasi-equivalent of AAA pitching talent. He managed to strike out less often in the winter league playoff games, going 13-64 with four walks and 18 strikeouts – a 26% strikeout rate that again is from a small sample size, and still not great, but an improvement. The Cubs decided to pull the plug on him in winter ball after the playoffs, preventing him from playing in the Caribbean Series after Santurce won the Puerto Rican Championship. If we combine the regular winter season and playoffs, we get this line for Baez:

	PA	H	BB	SO	BB%	K%
Baez	116	24	9	39	7.7%	34.0%

That brings us to these comments Cubs GM Jed Hoyer made at the 2015 Cubs Convention in mid-January:

“Javy has to make some adjustments. That’s obvious. Certainly, he’s a guy (who) has to earn his playing time. I don’t think there’s any question about that.”

Those comments represent a change in tone from management, who said confidently after the conclusion of the 2014 season that Baez was the current and future starter at second base. However, the writing on the wall hinting otherwise may have been in mid-November, when the Cubs traded Arodys Vizcaino to Atlanta for Tommy La Stella, a second baseman who is the complete opposite of Javier Baez in every single way. The dipole between the players is so complete, in fact, that if La Stella were somehow able to impart his contact ability onto Baez, and Baez his preternatural bat speed onto La Stella, there could be formed some sort of dual All-Star caliber homeostasis. Alas, science fails us again. Still, the difference in plate discipline and contact rates is stunning between the two during their short times at the major league level:

	O-Swing%	Z-Swing%	Swing%	O-Contact%	Z-Contact%	Contact%	Zone%
Baez	39.20%	57.60%	46.60%	39.70%	78.80%	59.20%	40.30%
La Stella	26.10%	59.20%	42.50%	79.50%	87.10%	84.80%	49.60%

The Cubs front office probably didn’t intend to create a strict competition for the starting second base job by signing La Stella and trading away Luis Valbuena in January. Perhaps they hoped a subtle question over their future plans might prompt improvement from Baez in Puerto Rico. After all, Baez is the draft investment, the flashy power, and a proclaimed part of “The Core Four” – the prospects of Baez, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, and Albert Almora that represent the self-identified future success of the club. La Stella represented a depth move at the time, and a savvy play to employ unusable bonus slots as a trade chip (Carson Cistulli covered this well in his recap of the trade last November). That being said, we shouldn’t be surprised if Baez’ poor winter ball performance is part of the change of tune from management, and a main factor in throwing the second base job into more of a flux. Yes, the sample sizes from winter league are small, but Baez’ serious strikeout problems are persisting.

Beyond Baez & La Stella, there are two more players who could also see time at second this season, Arismendy Alcantara and Addison Russell, but their positions and playing time are more in question than the two we are currently discussing. And, as long as we’re discussing hypothetical situations, Starlin Castro could also move to second base or be traded, freeing Baez to play his natural shortstop position. The main point to take out of this discussion is this: the Cubs have a ton of options in the infield, and at some point, the cream will rise to the top; Baez and La Stella just currently seem like the best bet to do so when March unfolds.

In honor of these two potential second basemen, and to illustrate their respective extremes of the spectrum of offensive approach, I have created the following graphic encapsulations of said players.

Javier Baez

The following GIF is Javier Baez, 2014, in a six game span from August 8^th to 13^th. The 11 plate appearances contained in the graphic make up almost one-half of the total plate appearances for Baez in those six games:

This is what Javier Baez does well: ten strikeouts and one magnificent home run, a Kyle Lohse slider on the outside corner pulled, improbably, deep into the left field bleachers. There are ten strikeouts and one home run for a reason: Baez struck out ten times for every long ball he hit in 2014. Since he didn’t contribute much else, it’s fun to visualize in essence how much each home run cost. There is a strange beauty to the way Javier Baez approaches the game, and it is this: he has elevated the strikeout to an art form. You like it or you hate it, but the fact remains that he is the extreme manifestation of the state of offense in the modern game. That is special in a very particular way, and it bears watching and studying. Baez is the ultimate litmus test for the high-risk, high-upside approach currently being favored by many players and teams, and it will be a fun test to witness.

Tommy La Stella

Here is Tommy La Stella over eight plate appearances between June 25^th and September 8^th. While it may seem uncannily similar to the Baez GIF, I assure you it in substance is not:

This is what La Stella does terribly: seven strikeouts and one just-enough home run, a Stephen Strasburg fastball pulled, improbably, into the right field bleachers. These are the only seven times La Stella struck out looking and the only home run he hit in all of 2014. The first thing that catches my eye about this: most of the called third strikes are borderline, or actually balls. I looked at the PITCHf/x output, courtesy of baseball savant:

Three shouldn’t have been called strikes, and the others (with one exception) were great pitches. La Stella, quite simply, has an advanced approach for a player his age, and that manifests most acutely in his excellent strikeout rate. In comparison, Baez struck out looking 22 times in 2014, and in 131 fewer plate appearances. For a look at how the stats we’re focusing on compare between the two, here’s a table showing their 2014 marks:

	PA	HR	BB	SO	BB%	K%
Baez	229	9	15	95	6.5%	41.4%
La Stella	360	1	36	40	10.0%	11.1%

I’m not going to go into defense very deeply, other than to say both of these players are just below-average defenders at second base in small sample sizes. Both are young, and Baez is still learning how to handle second base after his switch from shortstop. However, the main consideration for the Cubs has to be which way they want to go with their offensive approach: could they suffer through the strikeouts from Baez in a potent lineup until he improves his discipline and contact rates, or will he have a short leash with La Stella waiting in the wings? There’s obviously a favorite to win the job here, and it’s Baez, but with so much depth and a lot of transition in the coaching staff, we could be in for a few surprises when it comes to the infield (and entire roster) of the 2015 Cubs.