Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/11/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to the first offseason edition of my weekly chat.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve reached the midway point in my evaluation of the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee ballot, which was released a week ago. Festivus has come early, for today I took another look at Gary Sheffield, his never-ending list of grievances, and his prodigious offensive production https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, it was Carlos Delgado, who went one-and-done on the 2015 ballot https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-contemporary-baseball-era-committee-c…

Jay Jaffe: before them it was Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy, whose profiles you can reach via the navbar above either of those linked articles.

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow’s subject is Jeff Kent, which leaves Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Fernando Valenzuela to round out the ballot.

Jay Jaffe: Before I sunk my teeth into the Era Committee stuff, I had a piece last week positioning the Dodgers dynasty within the context of other dynasties from the post-1960 expansion era https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-dodgers-dynasty-takes-its-place-among-…

Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the show…

sodo mojo: I asked this at the beginning of the season and your answer was the player didn’t have enough of a bat which made sense at the time, but I want to ask it again in light of new evidence.  Do you think Cal Raleigh has a path to the Hall where he spends the next 3 years at catcher and slowly transitions to a full time DH for the following 4 years? if he can average 4 war over the next seven years it would give him 49 total is that enough given he was a catcher for the majority of his career?

Jay Jaffe: I think there’s a legitimate path to Cooperstown for Raleigh, but I think it’s going to depend upon retaining some share of the catcher duties for as long as possible.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think three years of full-time duty is going to cut it

Jay Jaffe: it was hard enough to convince some people that Joe Mauer belonged given his mid-career transition to first base, and we’re going to be looking at Buster Posey’s shortish career soon too

Jay Jaffe: wrote a bit about Raleigh in this year’s HOF progress report here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2025-progress-rep…

Jay Jaffe: obv, winning the AL MVP would be a big boost as well.

Jacob: What is the real purpose of GM Meetings? How many teams do actually have a solidified person who fills the role nowadays? Should they rename it as “Executive Meetings? “

Jay Jaffe: in light of all the presidents of baseball operation and the title inflation in general, yes, it would make more sense to call them the executive meetings. as for their purpose, they function as an opportunity for networking to lay groundwork for trades as well as addressing some leaguewide matters  — dates, rule changes, policies, other stuff

Jay Jaffe: stand by — lunch has arrived (banh mi today)

Jay Jaffe: had to go with the backup banh mi place today. a bit bready and more expensive but not bad.

Jacob: Zach Littell or Zach Eflin? Which would you prefer to sign and reunite with the Rays?

Jay Jaffe: I’d lean Eflin but only if the medicals check out and if it’s an incentive-based deal after he missed about half the season due to lower back woes

BallFourFan: Would Gary Sanchez be a good fit for a reunion with the Yankees as a backup right handed hitting catcher?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, i don’t see a need. Between Austin Wells, JC Escarra and occasional work from Ben Rice (who will likely be the regular 1B), they’re well-stocked, and somebody in that front office didn’t like Sanchez much judging by all the pissing and moaning about his defense that filtered into the beat coverage of him during his first go-round.

Dan S.: Seems like Sonny Gray has no surplus value and St. Louis would have to eat around $10M to find a taker/more to get anything of value back. Does that sound right to you? What about Willson Contreras? Does he have a bit of surplus value at 2/36.5 + an option? The buyout on that option is a substantial $5M.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see STL having to eat nearly that much if they want to deal Gray, who has a $35 million salary for next year and a $30 million option for 2027 with a $5 million buyout that’s deferred. That will probably limit his market, which the pitcher has some control over anyway due to his no-trade clause

Jay Jaffe: Contreras might be a bit undervalued, but not as much as he would be if he were still a catcher

Zach: How can the Dodgers actually get younger on offense? Realistically, they’ve only got one lineup spot open (one of the outfield positions), so their flexibility seems pretty limited.

Jay Jaffe: They have an opening in an outfield corner (probably RF with Teoscar moving to left) and flexibility at second base as well, where they could do something involving Hyeseong Kim and/or Alex Freeland, with Tommy Edman picking up starts at multiple positions

Jay Jaffe: Trading Teoscar would open up more avenues for getting younger, and after his defensive struggles it wouldn’t surprise me a ton if they went that way, even while eating a chunk of change

wrights_back: The Alonso permutations are head spinning!  Given the crowd sourced contract details, what direction do you think Stearns goes?   Yes, Pete is great a scooping balls in the dirt, but watching Vlad pay 1B in the WS was an eye opener for this Met fan (and not in a positive way).   $150Mn for a one dimensional DH is a surefire way to clog up the multi dimensional DH waiting in the wings (Soto).

Jay Jaffe: Alonso is a very bad first baseman whose defensive deficits led to multiple pitcher injuries including that of Kodai Senga, which may have turned the Mets’ season. I think a higher-AAV/shorter-term deal makes sense for them if they’re going to retain Alonso, since, as you note, Juan Soto is DH-bound at some point. If he’s set on more than 4 years, it might be time to move in a different direction, even if he is a fan favorite. When you win just 83 games, getting too attached to your ~3-win veterans is a ticket to oblivion

Jacob: Murakami reportedly has problems with 93+ mph fastballs and breaking pitches…isn’t that 90% of MLB level pitchers?

Jay Jaffe: Yeah, that’s a real problem, and Eric Longehagen expressed some concerns in his scouting report a couple weeks back https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-scout-the-players-coming-over-from-as…. It sounds like Murakami may need some mechanical tweaks to improve his contact rate, so it’s going to take a team that’s confident in its ability to rework his swing — and of course, the buy-in of Murakami himself — to get the kind of blockbuster deal some envision.

Quickie: Is there a difference between tendered and extended?

Jay Jaffe: tendered = a player under club control offered a contract for the next season. extended = a player under contract who adds additional years to the contract.

Alby: What was Clase thinking? The sums involved seem trivial to someone making millions.

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s very possible that what has been uncovered is merely the tip of an iceberg — enough to prosecute and to end his career, but not every single instance of wrongdoing. Even if it was, he made a very stupid decision that’s going to wind up costing him orders of magnitude more money.

Bardo Bill: Dwight Evans: 65 WAR, 2400+ hits, 129 wRC+. He’d be a first ballot HOFer if he became eligible now for the BBWAA ballot, right? How does he get overlooked by the Contemporary Era committee for the likes of Mattingly, Delgado, and Dale Murphy?

Jay Jaffe: Dunno about first-ballot but I do believe he’d be a guy who gets to Cooperstown by the end of his run, not unlike a Helton or Rolen (but not quite as strong in JAWS due to a lower peak).

I really don’t have any *good* explanation why Evans has been left off the last two ballots except that it appears the Hall and Historical Overview Committee don’t want to let go of the idea that Mattingly and Murphy can get in via a stacked committee à la Parker, which isn’t a good look. I do think that the recent rule change that makes candidates ineligible to return on the next ballot unless they receive at least 5 out of 16 votes will help get him on the next ballot but he deserved a crack at this one. And everything I’ve said here applies to Lou Whitaker as well, but with more WAR/JAWS.

Sam: Am I right to be worried that the Red Sox are not going to have effective ways to spend money in free agency?

Jay Jaffe: Even given their recent reputation, I’m going to hold off prejudging their offseason. They do have a couple of obvious ways to spend money: retain Alex Bregman, add some production at the DH/1B end of the spectrum, and go after some quality starting pitching. I think it will be fair to measure what they do relative to that outline.

Jacob: Do you feel that Bonds will be elected by this committee and how long can you be on this ballot?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s unlikely because the Hall controls who gets on the committees, and last time it chose three very players who were vociferously anti-PED in their day in Frank Thomas, Ryne Sandberg, and Jack Morris. Based on a rule change from earlier this year, if Bonds (or any other candidate) gets 5 or fewer votes, he can’t be on the 2029 ballot, and if that happens a second time, he’d be permanently ineligible.

Jay Jaffe: here’s the piece I wrote about the rule change https://blogs.fangraphs.com/never-is-a-long-long-time-permanent-inelig…

M: Any QOs you were surprised by? Which players are likely to accept them?

Jay Jaffe: The one that surprised me is Woodruff, whom I think would be the best served to accept given that he’s made 23 starts over 3 seasons due to arm injuries and rehab. I think Gallen would be well-served to accept as well after such a mediocre season.

Avery: How much of a boost do you think players like Salvador Perez, Yadier Molina and Buster Posey will get in hall of fame voting for being faces of their respective franchises while not being huge outliers statistically among catchers? This being as opposed to Russell Martin and Brian McCann who didn’t stick with one team, whose candidacies didn’t receive much fanfare, and then who fell unceremoniously fell off the ballot. And my real question: could this end up helping Will Smith in future? I’m probably overreacting his 2025, but he certainly could end up putting numbers and/or longevity similar to the three guys I mentioned at the top.

Jay Jaffe: they’ll get a bit of a boost but I don’t imagine it will be a difference-maker in itself. I don’t see Smith in the same situation because for as good as he is, so long as he’s a Dodger, he’s always going to take a back seat to Shohei, Mookie, Freddie and others. I also don’t think he’ll be at catcher for the entirety of his career; his framing has fallen off considerably and the Dodgers already have a young heir apparent in Rushing; it wouldn’t surprise me if Smith is manning an outfield corner sometime in the next several years.

Guest: Ke’Bryan Hayes’ defence makes him a top-25 3b-man, while Patrick Bailey’s makes him a top-10 catcher. Does the way framing is computed overstate overall value, in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe: no. except at the extremes, a run saved on defense is as valuable as a run produced on offense.

Scarecrow: Boston wants a top starter.  As an org., they seem to favor velocity.  Would you consider Cease to be a priority target over groundballers (and slow pitchers – both 10th percentile or lower in velo) Valdez and Suarez?

Jay Jaffe: I think Fenway Park places a bit more of a premium on guys who can generate groundballs, so a guy like Cease with his 36.6% rate isn’t a good fit. I think Framber Valdez is a much better fit for that reason — and he’s only 10th percentile in average exit velocity, not fastball velocity (his sinker averaged 94.2 mph, 47th percentile)

Kevin: People often rail against who they think as the “worst owner in baseball,” whoever that is to them. Which owner(s) do you consider to be the best owner(s) in baseball?

Jay Jaffe: leaving aside how they make their money (barf barf barf) it’s tough to argue against the Dodgers given their spending and success. I much prefer owners who spend aggressively so I’d put the Mets’ Cohen, the Phillies’ Middleton, and the Padres’ Seidler in the upper tier though the latter is provisional given last year’s messy transfer of power to brother John after Peter’s death. Moving down the payroll ladder, I think you’d have to consider the Brewers’ Attanasio to be one of the best given the success of the team on his watch.

The person who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: I had a classic banh mi (ground pork, ham, and pate) and an order of summer rolls (shrimp and rice vermicelli).

David: Di you think it’s accurate to describe Ohtani as the greatest of all time? Old Hoss pitched more innings in one season than Ohtani has pitched in his career – and sometimes played shortstop when he wasn’t pitching. Of course baseball was a different game then. But how can we describe a contemporary player as the GOAT when past players are basically eliminated from the conversation because today’s version of baseball is harder?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s unreasonable since we’ve never seen a player combine this level of offense with regular pitching duty against such high-caliber competition for as long as Ohtani. it’s fair to quibble with the volume of the pitching given his injuries, but Old Hoss ain’t the yardstick, and Hoss couldn’t hit for a warm bucket of spit (73 OPS+ for his career). Ruth didn’t have a crossover pitching-hitting career for long and was doing what he did against a much smaller and segregated player pool. Negro League two-way stars such as Rogan face quality-of-competition issues in such a comparison as well.

not the lunch guy: Thoughts on the Cubs? Even assuming they get Imanaga back (either on the QO or a new deal), they’re pretty much running back a roster that didn’t look talented enough for the playoffs minus their most talented player. What do you think they need to do here?

Jay Jaffe: They need frontline pitching and they’re going to have a Kyle Tucker-sized hole in their lineup. A reunion with Kyle Schwarber and possibly trading Suzuki might help solve the offensive issue without compromising what was one of the best defenses, so it really comes down to fortifying the pitching staff — which is going to take money.

Jazzrunner: Buster Posey and Thurman Munson have quite similar WARs and their careers were cut short perhaps 3 or 4 years early,  Munson because of the plane crash and Posey because he was burnt out.  They could have accumulated more stats as DHs in those years.  Is Posey a shoe in?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think Posey is shoo-in on the first ballot but he’s going to get elected to the Hall of Fame sooner rather than later. And I’ve made the Munson/Posey comp a million times but the Historical Overview Committee hasn’t listened to me.

Vince: How do you feel about Bill Freehan? 5x GG, 11x AS, WS win, entire career with DET. Seems to me like he’s one that slipped through the cracks.

Jay Jaffe: I think he’d be a reasonable choice for the Hall but the deck is stacked against him via the current Era Committee process. Wrote a lengthy tribute when he passed away in late 2021 https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-bill-freehan-the-thinking-mans…

Jay Jaffe: Just had another experience of a very weird sensation. obviously I’ve been writing for a long time – over 7 1/2 years at FanGraphs, 13 1/2 since i joined Sports Illustrated, and 24 since i started blogging at Futility Infielder. Sometimes I can envision where I was when I wrote a certain piece — which home office, basically, since I can see myself pulling books off the shelf to check various resources — and when the years blur together it gets confusing. through that latest bit of whatever sensation it is (not deja vu), I thought I might have written the Freehan piece as recently as 2 years ago but it turns out it was already 4 years ago! Wild.

Jacob: There was a documentary about “Who killed the Montreal Expos” and it lined up multitude of suspects, but during the entire documentary, there was no mention of Omar Minaya? Didn’t he make any questionable decisions? Whom do you feel killed the organization?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t watched it yet — I should — and yes, he did make some questionable decisions, such as trading Cliff Lee, Brandon Phillips, AND Grady Sizemore (plus Lee Stevens) for pending free agent Bartolo Colon.

More than anything else, I blame Jeffrey Loria and Bud Selig for killing the Expos.

WinTwins0410: Jay, have you ever written much about Dave Righetti? I thought of him the other day and reviewed his career and while he doesn’t seem Hall-worthy at first blush, fourth things stood out to me and I don’t refer to the Fourth of July no-hitter (!): 1) Wow, his career and in particular his time with the Yanks really parallels that of Donnie Baseball; 2) He wasn’t a manager but was pitching coach for those WS-winning Giants clubs; 3) Christina Kahrl in 2011 referenced (https://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/14104/stars-of-the-forgo…) Dave’s relief-pitching WAR as comparable to that of Lee (who had far more saves) and Quiz (who didn’t); and 4) FanGraphs’ Jesse Wolfersberger back in 2011 wrote a neat piece contending that Righetti could coach his pitchers to a better HR/FB rate (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dave-righetti-lord-of-the-hrfb-rate/). It’s not that I think Dave is a Hall of Famer in and of itself, but wow — he had a more interesting pitching and coaching career than I realized. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: He was a very good pitcher with a very interesting career, and you’re right, I’ve never written much about him. There’s a rainy day project idea.

Ken: Keith Hernandez v. Don Mattingly?

Jay Jaffe: I think Hernandez might be Hallworthy, and I absolutely 100% do not think Mattingly is.

Ken: I saw a MLB network piece where Brian Kenny advocated strongly for Mattingly being a HOFer. Is the fix in?

Jay Jaffe: BK’s obsession with law and order comes shining through again, but he’s got no bearing on the election process. This is the Hall’s ball, they control who gets on the committee.

Insert Witty Name Here: Which is worse: the steroid era or the legalized gambling era? There’s no way that legalized gambling is going away, unless government intervention right? If Clase, a top tier closer who de-legitimized the game, every pitch now is now under suspicion and it’s never going to go away.

Jay Jaffe: I think the legalized gambling era has the potential to be worse — and I’d put a complete ban on pitch-by-pitch betting — but I’m going to need to see far more proof before I believe that every pitch is under suspicion. Good grief, I think we’ve got enough darkness in our lives under this nightmare of a presidential regime to start concocting theories about a conspiracy controlling our pastimes as well.

Ken: Does the Clase/Ortiz prop bets scandal make MLB/Manfred reconsider moving a franchise in Vegas?

Jay Jaffe: hahahahahahhahahahhahahah

Jay Jaffe: no.

Nico’s Corner: Tucker to the Orioles.  Impact bat, makes fans happy, lengthens lineup.  Would they have to go over market to make it happen?

Jay Jaffe: Tucker would be a great fit for the Orioles, but regardless of what Rubenstein has said so far, nothing I’ve seen yet from the Orioles during his tenure — or more to the point, Mike Elias’ tenure — suggests he’s going to spend Tucker-level money on a free agent.

Jay Jaffe: prove me wrong, I’ll tip my cap. But until I see him write that check, he gets no benefit of the doubt (and the same would be true for any other blustering owner, especially one that starts banging the drum for a salary cap).

Alleghany River: Was moving O’Neill Cruz to CF a net positive?

Jay Jaffe: It’s way too early to judge that.

Jay Jaffe: I think it may very well end up a positive and it was probably the best thing. But it’s the pirates, what baseline are we measuring against anyway?

Mike Trout Mask Replica: Jay- Lou Whitaker (deservedly!) gets the most attention for Mid-Late ’80’s Tigers that merit Hall consideration…but what about Darrell Evans? He was probably undervalued during his playing time for being an OBP-forward hitter, who did not have a high batting average. But over 400 homers, a .360 career OBP and 120 wrc+, with some really big seasons in his prime as a 3B suggests someone who should get a closer look, no?

Jay Jaffe: Evans has a JAWS of 48.0, which is respectable but just 22nd among 3B, with Nettles, Boyer, Bell, Bando, Machado, Ramirez, Arenado, and Longoria all ahead of him in both carer and pea WAR, and above 50.0 JAWS. I can construct stronger arguments for all of them than Evans at this point.

Len Lumbers: The current Era Comm iteration seems to be the best-engineered version of itself yet – as several writers have intimated this month, it’s arrived at a point where it can not only dispense with undesirables in as little as three cycles, it can also funnel votes with at least some measure of certainty. Hmm. D’you think the current set of rules might only exist long enough to get past the PED hump? To borrow Tango’s line about the oversight committee – useful in theory; in practice its pace of deliberation is problematic (posthumous recognition [Allen], a lost race against time [Parker], or significantly advanced age [Kaat]) – it’ll never get it all right, it’ll just fix some of the blemishes.

Jay Jaffe: I think that’s what the Hall hopes. the reality is that based on recent history the rules might end up changing before the permanent ineligibility goes into effect.

Jay Jaffe: ok folks, that’s it from me for this week! Thanks for stopping by. Tip your bartenders and waitstaff, stay hydrated, and we’ll try to do this again next week.