Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 12/23/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my final chat of 2025! Very shortly my profile of Edwin Encarnación will go live on the site, my last of this calendar year but not of this cycle; I’ve got a bunch of one-and-done guys to cover in January. My Hall of Fame ballot explainer will go live a week from today, and will be in the mail the same day.

Jay Jaffe: In case you’re scoring at home, that’s four new profiles thus far (Cole Hamels, Ryan Braun, Alex Gordon, and Encarnación), eight holdover profiles, and three multi-candidate roundups. You can see the schedule here — with a link to our Crowdsource Ballot, if you haven’t already partaken (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot-of-your-own-and…) — or follow the links atop each post to get to the ones you missed.

Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show.

John T.: In your Fernando Valenzuela Era Committee piece you mentioned electing more pioneers to the HOF. In that spirit, would you support electing more people with outsize influences on the game, even in unconventional ways—I’ve long thought that Dr. Frank Jobe should be in the HOF for the role he’s played in baseball history. What do you think?

Jay Jaffe: I think once we establish this as a viable route into the Hall, Jobe would definitely be one worth considering. I do find it remarkable that only two pitchers with TJs have been elected (John Smoltz and Billy Wagner), but that speaks more to the general dearth of pitchers elected over the past few decades than anything else.

Guest: If you had to pick a fifth starter for the Padres (and I’m praying for a trade or free agent signing to fill the fourth starter spot) would it JP Sears or Randy Vasquez and why?  Red is absent on both of their Statcast pages…

Jay Jaffe: Here’s the thing about fifth starters: you don’t have to pick just one. By definition, they’re pretty fungible, can be swapped in or out depending upon who’s hot at what level (bullpen or minors), and at some points might wind up alongside each other when the injury bug bites one of your other starters — which it will.

Jay Jaffe: If you’re asking me which of those two I like better, woof, I can’t say I particularly have a preference beyond “whichever matches up better against opposing lineups.” Vasquez has the better track record against righties, while Sears has the more even platoon split. Beyond that, I’m reminded of music critic Robert Christgau’s description of “Distinctions Not Cost Effective“

RetireNutting: If the Pirates shocked the world and signed Bregman and Verlander and Bellinger, would you have them as NL Central frontrunners? Would that payroll even with those three guys cross $160M?

Jay Jaffe: Well, they’re at $82 million now and if you figure roughly $30 million per year for Bregman and Bellinger and $20 million for Verlander, that gets you past $160 million. I think the money spent on Verlander is probably best used in other ways but no, I don’t think those additions would lead me to pick the Pirates over the Brewers or Cubs based on the front office talent of the former and the spending resources (largely dormant though they’ve been) for the latter.

Sam: Has “Is Kyle Schwarber a HOFer if he hits 500 HRs?” become the new “Is Nick Markakis a HOFer if he gets 3000 hits?” Or do you think their cases are different enough to change the conversation?

Jay Jaffe: They’re different in that Schwarber has a lengthy and impressive postseason resumé, some significant black ink, and a second-place finish in the MVP voting. I still don’t think he’s going to create enough value for me to consider him. He’s at 340 homers and 19.9 career WAR. Here’s the table I made for the just-published Encarnación piece (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot-edwi…)

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: None of those guys are in the Hall, and despite Delgado’s recent showing on the Era Committee ballot (9/15, 56.1%), I don’t see him getting to 75% because the next time he’s up should have more candidates that some voters won’t automatically rule out due to PED issues (gdi what a convoluted and ridiculous process this has become).

Dallas: how bad was Brandon Lowe’s baserunning and def that despite putting up 30+ HRs, he still was essentially slightly below league average over a full 162 game season? Does the public discount Def/BSR when evaluating players?

Jay Jaffe: This one meshes with the previous question. Yes, home runs and the one-dimensional players who hit them tend to be overvalued while defense (which is admittedly fuzzy to measure) and baserunning are often undervalued. Lowe’s 2025 season weighed in at 1.7 WAR, which wasn’t even the Lowe-est (sorry) among 30-homer slugger; Salador Perez (0.5), Jo Adell (1.2), and Vinnie Pasquantino (1.5) were lower. Lowe was a career-worst 1.8 runs below average on the bases, with -9 FRV and -14 DRS at second base. That’s pretty brutal. Some of it may have been injury-related — he had ankle/foot and oblique issues during 2025 — but he’s also 31 now, so bouncing back from those is less automatic.

Len Lumbers: Happy Holidays, Double-J! Hoping for a brief salve against the b*tsh*t news cycle but not counting on it. … For Xmas I believe I’m finally getting James’ HOF book; it’ll sit alongside yours on the shelf. Question 1: are any and all your allusions to writing an updated version to be taken seriously? Because, seriously, I’d love that! Question 2: Posnanski (with a Tango assist) crafted a dominance (or prime)-heavy figure designed to identify true HOF careers (the elements include: weighted values for individual seasons in the top 10 for bWAR and WAA [stripped of any negative-value seasons]). Like yourself – and pretty much anyone else burdened with critical thought – he’s grown tired of the oversight committee’s oversights. I LOVE reading a select few scribes’ HOF thoughts every year, but it sure seems like that community is bangin’ its head against walls of indifference and ignorance. The BBWAA cabal is evolving, learning. Is there a sense the Era Committee will ever follow suit?

Jay Jaffe: Hey Len! Happy holidays to you as well. While I certainly have the building blocks in place to write an update/sequel to my 2017 book, The Cooperstown Casebook, I don’t have an agent or a publisher, just an outline and a large stack of articles that constitute a head start on fleshing that outline out. Realistically, any such book is a 2027 or ’28 proposition; my goal is to figure out a plan by next Opening Day.

Jay Jaffe: I have not seen the Poz/Tango dominance figure but am curious; I did see Joe’s rant about the Era Committee, and am right there with him, more or less. Alas, I think any progress when it comes to the Era Committee process is a longshot because of the weight the HOFers who sit on the committee carry relative to the writers and historians (7 to 3 in the most recent election, which is pretty typical).

Frohe Weihnachten: Hey Jay, Merry Christmas from Germany. Can you give me an early present and tell me you are fairly sure that Jackson Merrill will get back to building on his 2024 season this year and that the injuries and growing pains of last year are something he can put behind him? Dankeschön!

Jay Jaffe: I had to go remind myself of the exact litany of Merrill’s injuries — he made three trips to the IL for a left ankle sprain, a concussion, and a right hamstring strain. The last of those worries me the most as it pertains to his speed, which obviously he needs on both sides of the ball. I think he’s young enough to rebound, but I’m also concerned this is who he is — a guy who plays hard and sometimes gets injured in the process.

Kevin: Do you think hitter and catcher success in using the ABS challenge system will measurably add (or detract) from their overall valuation? I recently read that Zac Veen challenged something like 24 strike calls in AAA and won the challenge only three or four times. Seems to me catcher success rate might be measurably valuable similar to the way framing has been.

Jay Jaffe: I’d guess that it will maybe move the needle by a handful of runs in the most extreme cases. I’d bet nearly all of the changes are within half a win but… who knows?

EB: Thinking about the Mets offseason, is there any research connecting roster turnover to team outcomes? For example, losing a 2.5 win player while gaining a 2.5 win player would seem like a wash, but are there some “intangibles” when players have experience playing with each other? Or alternatively, some benefit to bringing in new personnel even if the metrics look similar? (Is there any sentimentality left in baseball?)

Jay Jaffe: I have yet to see any research on this. i do think it’s worth bearing in mind that it’s not as simple as “losing a 2.5 win player while gaining a 2.5 win player” — you’re adding guys who have a range of outcomes and likelihoods of attaining them, and even if they have the same median forecast, the extremes might be different, with higher or lower upside.

That’s not to ignore the possibility of intangible gains or losses as personnel turns over. Interpersonal conflicts are real and can mess up a clubhouse, and some guys are better about helping younger players or whatever.

Jay Jaffe: But quantifying that is another matter entirely.

ChicagoDan1970: Good afternoon, Jay! I enjoy following your Hall of fame writeups each year! I do have a question. Now that Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy have each had 19 bites at the apple concerning Hall Of Fame voting, how many more chances do you think they will get? Also, Bill James once said that he would not be offended if Murphy were to be elected to the HOF but he wouldn’t advocate it. Do you agree and would you apply that to Mattingly as well?

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the kind words. I don’t see an end to Mattingly and Murphy getting additional shots via the Era Committee. It’s obvious that the Hall wants both in, and that they have constituencies within the Historical Overview Committee — the BBWAA elders who make the ballot — who support that as well.

I do side with Bill James on this one. I wouldn’t vote for Murphy but I see him as significantly more valuable at his peak because he played the more difficult position; compare his 46.5/41.2/43.9 career/peak/JAWS to Mattingly’s 42.4/35.7/39.1. Consider also that Murphy’s development and playing time were constrained at the outset of his career because he was a catcher, and that the additional wear and tear he put on his knees in that capacity may have figured in the troubles he had later in his career.

Julio Rodriguez: Mariner front office says they want one more bat. What position are they even looking to fill at this point? Or will it be more of a bench utility player type?

Jay Jaffe: My guess is the latter. Their young infielders — second basemen Ryan Bliss and Cole Young and third basemen Ben Williamson and Colt Emerson — have yet to sustain major league success, and Miles Mastrobuoni hasn’t done much in a utility role so I think adding some insurance at one of those positions seems most likely.

Look At This Sotograph: Who is the worst person, not player, who is enshrined in the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve always heard that Rogers Hornsby was a particularly unpleasant person. A few years ago, Joe Posnanski wrote, “He was a known racist, probably an anti-Semite (though he did have Jewish friends who denied that specific charge), and no player in baseball history — not Cobb or anyone else — had as many detractors jumping in line to talk about just how terrible a person he was.”  (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/1664621/2020/03/10/the-baseball-100-n…)

In terms of impact on baseball, though I think we can argue that Cap Anson, whose influence led to the 1880s Gentlemen’s Agreement banning Black players, or Judge Landis, who spent 24 years upholding the color line, were demonstrably worse for the game.

John: your thoughts on the goofy 1-2 person ballots this year?  Publishing ballots has removed some of the quirkiness but i worry with fewer voters that quirky ballots get magnified

Jay Jaffe: It’s pretty inevitable on a ballot this weak. When we had a dozen or so candidates with 50 JAWS there was incredible pressure on voters to use all 10 slots without wasting a vote, but I think one has to be pretty liberal with the definition of Hall of Famer to get to 10 on this one, and I’m leaning against doing so myself. That leaves room for what I’d call courtesy votes for random candidates (Hunter Pence just got one yesterday I think) as well as protest votes (seen at least one Manny/A-Rod) and the inevitable look-at-me-look-at-me blanks.

Jay Jaffe: I try very hard not to take extreme individual ballots seriously. yes, some of them are dumb, and yes, they frustrate me, but I can only do so much to try to sway things in the direction I believe is the right one, and openly mocking such ballots won’t aid that cause.

Claude: You indicated that you’re unlikely to vote for Wright or Pedroia this year, but look forward to continuing to think about them.  What would garner your vote going forward?  Does Felix’s apparent surge this year make a difference as another short-career high-peak player?

Jay Jaffe: Félix and the aforementioned Mattingly/Murphy reheating are two fronts that could change my thinking about Wright and Pedroia, though I do see separation between pitchers and position players when it comes to the difficulties of longevity, and thankfully the Era Committee dealt both M&M boys an electoral setback after their gains on the 2023 ballot. I’m oversimplifying but if Mattingly were to get in, I’d probably feel more of a mind to include W & P.

War2D2: Matt Shaw has fully embraced his role as a token athlete MAGA dipshit. As Craig Calcaterra pointed out, Shaw came off as a well-meaning (depending on your perspective) but fatuous boob in his speech the other day. As both a lifelong Cubs fan and someone who is aghast at the horrors being wrought daily in the name of “faith” or “patriotism” I’m having a really hard time with this. I know that baseball (or life in general) is rife with terrible people, but rarely are they so in-your-face. How do you generally cope with the trade off? From a purely baseball perspective I want Shaw to succeed—he’s a great fielder, and if he can hit enough then they have 3B locked down for the next six years, a position they haven’t filled reliably since Bryant was good ~ten years ago. But from a basic humanity perspective I want him off the team so I don’t have to think about racist policies and narcissistic wannabe dictators while I’m watching a baseball game. Sorry for dragging the vibe down, but this has been bothering me.

Jay Jaffe: I generally presume that I’d rather not know the political — and I don’t just mean ballot box but also issues-based — positions of at least 90% of players, and so long as they don’t make it my business to find out, I’m content with that. Occasionally one really does make it my business, and it can really change how I view them. Some people were very pissed at my mention of Clayton Kershaw upstaging the Dodgers’ Pride Night twice in three years in the piece I wrote covering his retirement but particularly with his scripture-quoting cap, he turned it into an on-field display; perhaps my most unique piece of memorabilia, a personalized signed photo of Kershaw that a distant cousin gave me as a demonstration for a start-up product called EGraphs (no relation), is now stowed in a drawer because I lost a great deal of respect for a player to whom I was once very emotionally attached, and because I have too many LGBTQ+ family/friends/supporters/readers/etc to let that shit slide.

Jay Jaffe: That kind of thing sucks; I recommend expecting not-great things from players in that portion of their lives so as not to become overly disappointed. They’ll campaign for or contribute to or back causes you don’t like, and you’ll have to decide if that changes how you feel about them. It’s complicated, but that’s life.

Happy Festivus!: My friends and I have long since grown out of Feats of Strength, but you can bet we’re going to air a ton of grievances to each other today

Jay Jaffe: Happy Festivus. Consider the Kershaw mention above my contribution to the grievances.

Guest: Question on the Ferrell brothers. Which do you consider the bigger mistake, Rick’s inclusion in the HOF, or Wes’ exclusion? Or do you think neither is a mistake?

Jay Jaffe: I think they have exactly the wrong one in. Wes ranks 41st among starters in S-JAWS, below the standard but above guys like Palmer, Drysdale, Marichal, and Feller whom nobody would consider bad choices for election. Rick ranks 46th among catchers, just below a lot of very good backstops one would never consider Hall caliber such as  Mickey Tettleton, Tom Haller, Del Crandall, and Sherm Lollar.

Scoob: Why are people even entertaining the idea of trading Skubal? When was the last time a player got traded immediately after winning two CYs or MVPs in a row? I don’t even think it’s ever happened? And I swear to god if the Tigers trade with the Dodgers and their overrated paper tiger prospects I’m never watching baseball again. I’m gonna defect to Cricket.

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s based on the recognition that he’s a Boras client and the presumption that he will bolt Detroit for a bigger-payroll team when he reaches free agency, which itself rests on the presumption that unlike his father, Chris Ilich isn’t going to pay market rate (or higher) to retain his superstars. And that may be true.

Grandpaboy: If Mark Buehrle had racked up 200 wins, 60WAR, 2 no-hitters (inc. a perfect game) and a World Championship as a Yankee, would he be in the HoF already?

Jay Jaffe: swap the two no-hitters for four more World Series rings and you’ve described Andy Pettitte. So, no.

Phils Phan: Jay, I was wondering who you rank as your highest candidates from the 1990s-2000s for subsequent Veteran’s committee elections now that Jeff Kent has cleared the bar. To me, I think Kenny Lofton, Lance Berkman, and Curt Schilling come to mind (yes, you’ve made it clear you’re not a fan, but he had a HOF-worthy career and if we start judging players by post-career behavior then a lot of current HOFers, including Steve Carlton, would be in question). . . Who are your top 3 deserving of enshrinement?

Jay Jaffe: off the top of my head, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Gary Sheffield, followed by Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Kenny Lofton.

Kyle: Jay I’ll take that Kershaw photo if you don’t want it. I’ll pay for the shipping.

Jay Jaffe: it’s actually more than just a photo, it’s also got a voice chip recording (see https://web.archive.org/web/20130418010801/https://www.egraphs.com/182). I’ll part with it for $300, if you’re serious. Otherwise it stays in the box until my mood or his views improve.

Phillies Phan: It seems that JT Realmuto’s return to the Phillies isn’t the lock that most fans had assumed. Do you think it makes sense for the Phils to try a season with Marchan and pivot to Bichette or Bellinger?

Jay Jaffe: I wonder if Bichette can play third? Or Stott third with Bichette at second? I think you might be onto something in terms of pivoting away from Realmuto but I still think they need to get a more established catcher.

Look At This Sotograph: How many of Tucker, Framber, Bregman, and Bellinger will the Mets sign with all that available $$$?

Jay Jaffe: I think they land one of the two outfielders. Bregman ain’t happening because they still have a glut of infielders.

Mike: Thanks to you and everyone there for another great year. Enjoy some vacation.

War2D2: One last thing, I just wanted to say that I appreciated your work this year, as I do every year, and thank you for both your posts and these chats. You make life a little better with each thing you write.

Jay Jaffe: Thank you all for the kind words and for reading and supporting FanGraphs! Best to you during this holiday season — here’s hoping you can spend time with loved ones, and that our 2026 is brighter than this dark year.