Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 4/25/19

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon folks, and welcome to today’s chat. I’ve been buried in studying career strikeout rates and totals in anticipation of CC Sabathia’s 3,000th K, which did not go off last night (hency my shelving the piece until next week, most likely). Anyway, on with the show.

Skip: I purchased your book from an online discount book outlet. I saved a ton of money. Then it occurred to me, are you fairly compensated for that purchase? I assume the copies (they had around 100 available) was purchased in bulk from the original purveyor of the book but I have no idea how that works in terms of royalties. Am I a jerk for trying to save some cash?

Jay Jaffe: First off, thanks for your support! I appreciate you taking the time not only to read but to think about your purchase decision, even if you did go with the lowest price (as I quite often do myself).

Basically, the way it works with The Cooperstown Casebook is that I was given a significant advance up front by the publisher, which means that I don’t see any royalties until that figure is reached. And like most books, my sales have not yet reached that mark (in part because the book has not come out in paperback, though I’d make less on those copies). So I wouldn’t sweat the decision too much. I do like it when people choose to support independent bookstores in purchasing the Casebook. You can do so via indiebound.com to find, say, a local one near you; I fulfill requests for signed copies at a bookstore near me in Brooklyn, Greenlight Bookstore. https://cooperstowncasebook.com/2017/07/21/signed-copies-of-the-cooper…

New York Railriders: Do the Yankees have the best AAA lineup in the majors? How have the injuries not stopped yet. Good lord.

Jay Jaffe: Am I the new Jonah Keri? I wrote about Clint Frazier earlier this week and now he’s on the IL.

BenZ: I know they are all somewhat longshots, but how would you rank Jon Lester, Cole Hamels, and David Price in likelihood of reaching the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: Tough to handicap but you’re right, they’re long shots. They all have at least one World Series ring and have pitched in multiple World Series. Price is the only one with a Cy Young, which helps him, and he’s the youngest (33 versus 35 for the other two). They’re all pretty even in terms of ERA+ (Lester 122, 124 for the other two), and Lester is well ahead in wins (178 to 159 for Hamels, 144 for Price), while Hamels has the nod in K’s (2,445 to like 2200something for Lester and 1800something for Price). From a JAWS standpoint, Hamels (47.6 JAWS, 88th) is well ahead of both Lester (39.8, 151st) and Price (35.3, 198th). For comparison, Jack Morris is 168th at 38.0. I don’t think any of them come close to what Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke and Scherzer — or even Sabathia, with his inevitable 250 win/3000 strikeout combo (and 51.2 JAWS) bring to the table, but if I had to pick one, it’s price because he’s the youngest.

Bo: Not baseball-related, but do you watch Jeopardy? Have you been following James Holzhauer’s incredible run?

Jay Jaffe: It’s been about 20 years since I watched much in the way of Jeopardy, but my wife (Emma Span) has been on, as have a couple of other friends. I did see that this guy is kicking ass all over the place but I’m not invested in it.

The 6ix: Skip isn’t a jerk for saving some money, at least he bought the book.  Libraries are jerks for letting multiple people read a book for free; it’s downright communist.

Jay Jaffe: Libraries are great! More people should use them! Everybody should fund them to a greater extent! I have no objection to anybody checking out my book from the library at all.

BenZ: Will Andrelton Simmons finish his career as the greatest Simmons in baseball history, 2nd greatest (after Al), or 3rd greatest (after Al and Ted)?

Jay Jaffe: Tall order, given that we’re talking about a Hall of Famer who’s 7th in JAWS among left fielders and a should-be-HOFer who’s 10th among catchers. I do think that Andrelton is on his way; his improved hitting and fantastic defense is going to push him past Vizquel in the JAWS rankings by the end of this season, his age-29.

Andy: Does the Darling v. Dykstra thing change your opinion of either of them?

Jay Jaffe: While I think Darling has put his ex-teammates on the spot with his allegations, the reports of Dykstra’s reprehensible behavior on so many fronts are so well-documented that I’m hardly surprised to learn of yet another one.

Chris S: I know Vlad Jr’s debut is going to be highly anticipated, but with batters it is hard to understand what makes up a good debut or start to a career.  With Strasburg we got to watch him fan 14 batters in his first start but we there is a chance Vlad doesnt even get a pitch to swing at tonight (not on purpose just by fluke) and there are no fireworks and fans would be disappointed by the debut.  What do you have to say to fans about maybe grouping a few games together before gushing over, or being disappointed by his debut?

Jay Jaffe: I think most actual fans understand all of this, that baseball is a game of intermittent opportunities and repeated failures, and that even homering in your first at-bat guarantees you nothing. By the time they get to the majors, every player already understands this, particularly one who’s the son of a big leaguer.

Gaslamp Gary: Any concerns about Manny Machado’s slow start? His hard contact rate is higher than his career average…

Jay Jaffe: His Statcast numbers (including their version of Hard Hit Rate (95 mph EV or higher) are down across the board, his groundball rate is up, his chase rate is up, though his swing rate is more or less unchanged. He doesn’t quite fit into what Eno Sarris found here https://theathletic.com/928555/2019/04/17/sarris-how-bryce-harper-and-… but I’d guess that he’s pressing, which isn’t uncommon for a player moving to a new team.

James: The Astros lead the league in wRc+ but are 13th in runs per game. Is this just bad situational luck?

Jay Jaffe: I’m not really sure but a quick glance says that yes, their wRC+ with RISP (118) or Men on (109) is lower than their overall mark (131), which is the figure that’s much more likely to regress. Remarkably, they’ve got 10 players with a WRC+ above 100, and only 3, all with 37 PA or fewer, below.

munceman: how long before Verdugo replaces Pollock fulltime?

Jay Jaffe: With that contract? We’re talking years. It’s probably Chris Taylor, who has a 46 wRC+, who’s in real danger of losing time to Verdugo.

Gaslamp Gary: Felix Hernandez looked rejuvenated yesterday. Thoughts on his new pitching approach? Could he still be a decent pitcher for the next 2-3 years?

Jay Jaffe: It’s one start, and when I looked at his game log, I found that the last time he threw more than six innings and allowed two or fewer runs… was last August 28, also at Petco. Let’s hope he’s turned the corner, but this may just be a blip.

LScott: A pitcher’s pitch count is used to determine how long a starter can go in games.  With that being the case,  why dont we keep track of total number of pitches thrown and use that info to determine a pitcher’s season workload rather than using innings pitched?  A 10 pitch inning is a lot less taxing than a 30 pitch inning.

Jay Jaffe: allow me to go out on a limb and suggest that teams are actually more meticulous about tracking pitcher workloads than the general public. Some even track the number of bullpen/warm-up pitches.

Pat Borders Patrol: Also, as a long time IPA fan who has lived in Canada for the past four years, which IPA should be the first I drink when I return to New York this September?! (Apparently some Upstate breweries have been making some tasties since I was last there….)

Jay Jaffe: If you can get your hands on some Other Half — mainly by going to their taproom in Red Hook (Brooklyn) — that’s the place to start. They’re constantly tinkering, but anything with “Green” in the title is a good place to start. Three’s Brewing in Brooklyn is a personal favorite if you’re going to hit a brewpub and want some decent food and outdoor space. If you’re buying at a well-stocked grocery store, Barrier’s stuff, particularly Money, is more accessible than the others. That and Three’s Unreliable Narrator are my two favorites among those I get to consume with any regularity.

Pat Borders Patrol: How does one gain access to the massive archive of source material in the HoF? Is there a person to contact for such things?

Jay Jaffe: Start here https://baseballhall.org/discover-more/education/research. It’s much easier if you visit than if you try to do it remotely. The area for researchers to use is pretty small, and has some stringent rules, but the staff is helpful and knowledgeable about how to access the massive wealth of material.

Tom: If he hadn’t had the injuries and we were to assume his level of play would have stayed high during the missed years, would Adam Wainwright be a Hall of Famer?

Jay Jaffe: Good question. Wainwright had four 6-WAR (b-ref version ) seasons from 2007-14, which means they wouldn’t be out of place in a HOF peak score, but he never exceeded that, and his next-best seasons are like 3 WAR (including offense), which is a pretty big drop-off even before considering his struggles of the past five years.

Blue Jay: If you had to put odds on Vlad Jr’s HoF chance, what would it be?

Jay Jaffe: He’s debuting at 20 years old, and I actually wrote something about just that here last year: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/acunas-hall-of-fame-chance…

Pat Borders Patrol: I thought Manny was already above 1.0 WAR…not exactly a sloooooooow start….

Jay Jaffe: 0.7 by fWAR (with 3.3 UZR), 1.0 bWAR (with 6 DRS). To extent there’s concern, it’s w/r/t the modest offense (103 wRC+)

Ben: You may have answered this before, butdo you think the HOF will soon adjust counting stat standards for admission? 300 wins for pitchers are ever more rare – shouldn’t 250 be the new benchmark?

Jay Jaffe: Of the six pitchers that have gone into the Hall since Maddux and Glavine were elected in 2014, one has 300+ (Randy Johnson), two others have 250+ (Jack Morris, ugh, and Mike Mussina), and the other three have 200+ (Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz and Roy Halladay). Schilling, who’s next (and worthy of a double-ugh for non-performance reasons), will be in that last group, so I think it’s fair to say that for those who are concerned, the shift has already happened.

Something: You should not drink IPAs, so many better more unique beers out there

Jay Jaffe: Who says I only drink IPAs? I love stouts, porters, lagers, pilsners, and the occasional saison as well. Recently consumed: Three’s/Burial collaboration Backways, a Dark Mild session ale, Cigar City Guayabera Citra Pale Ale, and the Five Boroughs Hoppy Lager — all worth pursuing.

supatroopa: Are the Yankees quietly one of the deepest teams in the major leagues?

Jay Jaffe: It would appear that way. Brian Cashman seems to have unearthed a real keeper in Luke Voit, has gotten decent work out of Mike Tauchman so far, and the DJ LeMahieu signing looks a lot better than I thought so far. Plus there’s the work of the homegrown Domingo German. Few saw those guys as key contributors at this point, and while a soft schedule has helped the Yankees look good, it’s the depth that’s keeping them above .500.

Austin: Are you one of those folks who wait in line at Other Half then sell it online for double the price?

Jay Jaffe: I think I’ve stood in line at OH once since Emma got pregnant (2-3x prior) and that was in part to meet a reader who happened to be in town and wanted to give me a Dark Lord stout. Not a big believer in standing in line for beer, and I don’t have the patience or the gumption to sell beer to random hopheads at a markup.

Balked: Why are wins a HOF benchmark at all for pitchers? Degrom went 10-9 last year.

Jay Jaffe: Cy Young voters have largely come around on using wins as a yardstick but HOF voters as a group are older (a significant % is retired) and more attached to the W’s. When they look at HOF candidates, they’re looking at a much broader selection of seasons, where the weird things like what deGrom went through last year tend to even out with seasons of good run support even if their run prevention isn’t as strong.

Blastin: The Yankees are doing this and it’s not a mirage. The differential is very, very good. They’re 1.5 games out. If you’re the Rays are you upset you didn’t bury them?

Jay Jaffe: If you’re the Rays, you’re pretty happy to be 16-9 instead of 12-13, which is where they were at the 25-game mark after starting the season 1-8.

Janus: Silver Unicorn Bookstore in Acton, Mass FTW

Jay Jaffe: that’s FanGraphs alum Paul Swydan’s joint. Hoping to pay a visit later this summer.

Bread Gardner: Jack Curry says the Yankees just picked up Cameron Maybin from the Indians.

Jay Jaffe: He’s a warm body, and they need ’em.

psweeting: I am partial to Grimm in Brooklyn. Zonk IPA is an all time favorite.

Jay Jaffe: Grimm’s does a lot of sours, which aren’t really my bag (though I’ll have one here and there). But yeah, they’re good

Something: My IPA comment was in response to Pat Borders Patrol, if you are coming to NY try some of our better beers rather than IPAs

Jay Jaffe: The thing about IPAs is that freshness matters, and so distribution tends to be more limited, which is why taking advantage of being local matters more with regards to that style than others.

Ragecashing: hey Jay quick question, is there anywhere on the site where i can find projected or confirmed starting lineups and batting order? thanks

Jay Jaffe: Our team pages have game-by-game lineups and orders, but not before the games have actually happened. https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/dodgers/player-usage/batting-lineup
Not sure how quickly those make it to the live scoreboard, if it’s before first pitch or what.

Matt : CC’s HOF chances? He is close to 3000 Ks. 300 wins seems like a stretch at this point, but possible. He’s got a ring and 6 all star nominations. But only one Cy Young.

Jay Jaffe: Not gonna get to 300 as he’s announced this is his final season, but stronger on the trad stats front — and, i think, the less tangible facets of a HOF case, kind of the anti-Schilling — than on the advanced stats front. He’s been a huge favorite of mine (no pun intended) dating back to the days before I could populate a press box, and I’d say it’s more likely than not that I will vote for him come the time (I get my ballot for 2021, he will be first eligible for 2025).

Tacoby Bellsbury: Not a fan of Jack Morris I take it? You don’t buy the “pitch to contact when you’re ahead” philosophy/excuse? Great pitcher for some crappy Tigers teams.

Jay Jaffe: Man, that horse has been beaten to death. Touched upon it here https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/11/15/jack-morris-hall-fame-modern-basebal…, and took a closer look in The Casebook.

Hello: Where did Swydan go?

Jay Jaffe: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/farewell-for-now/

D: Is Raimel Tapia a thing? I’m intrigued.

Jay Jaffe: Eric Longenhagen included him (along with Frazier) on his short list of post-prospect guys in whom he still believed. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/prospect-limbo-the-best-of-the-post-prospe… I know he’s not alone, though I wouldn’t think he can carry a .496 SLG let alone a .596 one, as he currently is.

Billy: is there a way to look up league wide hard hit data?

Jay Jaffe: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/league

D: Would a healthy and effective David Price be attractive to teams at the deadline?

Jay Jaffe: I can’t see the Red Sox eating enough of the $100 million-plus to make that happen.

kevinthecomic: Live Scoreboard has lineups well in advance of first pitch, FYI — it is dependent, however, on when teams publish — for example, the Reds (for whatever reason) lineup is usually posted 5 or 6 hours before first pitch when playing an evening game — other teams are usually up at least an hour before start time

Jay Jaffe: sharing this for those who asked.

D: Should the Red Sox reach the deadline and remain below .500, should they make their best offer to Mookie, and then trade him if he doesn’t sign?

Jay Jaffe: No, because a) it’s hardly a guarantee he’s willing to negotiate in season, and gun-to-the-head tactics are horseshit; b) because the Sox presumably have enough talent to compete next year, with some tweaks, even if this isn’t their year.

Something: Should pitches a batter sees be incorporated to WAR? Theoretically the more pitches you see the quicker your team gets to the opposing teams lesser pitchers.

Jay Jaffe: If somebody can quantify it with some reliability, then it might be worth including, but IIRC, long ago somebody who researched it suggested it was a very, very small effect that mostly gets captured in the form of a player’s OBP, since seeing more pitches will generally lead to more walks.

Matt: Are pre-orders a big deal when releasing a book? **trying to preorder MVP Machine though a Fangraphs related source**

Jay Jaffe: Yes, they are. If you want to support an author, that’s the best way, because robust pre-sales increase the likelihood of landing on best-seller lists (ha, not a problem for the Casebook) and of getting picked up by other stores and libraries

Pat: Morris did not pitch for crappy teams. The 80’s Tigers won 1 WS, made the playoffs in 87 & were over .500 pretty much every year & they had a really good lineup with great up the middle defense (Tram, Whitaker, Lance Parrish & Chet Lemon..Add in Gibby & Darrell Evans in RF/1B). Then he played for WS Minnesota & Toronto. He played vast majority of his career on good to very good teams.

Jay Jaffe: Those Tigers were kind of viewed as underachievers for not getting back to a second World Series beyond 1984; the 1987 ALCS was a huge upset. I think that had an impact not just on Morris’ acceptance by HOF voters but also for Trammell and Whitaker.

D: Just to clarify, I wasn’t suggesting a gun-to-head, though I’m sure it sounded that way. I was saying they do their best to keep him and then deal him if their best isn’t good enough. No threat intended.

Jay Jaffe: ok, fair enough. Thanks for the clarification.

brad nj: Does WAR include quality of SP faced?  I assume this should matter, but not sure how you would adjust for it, but I would think something like a park factor

Jay Jaffe: To my knowledge, I don’t think the FG version does. I know the B-Ref version has an adjustment for pitchers, but I don’t believe it has one for hitters.

Jeff M: What are your thoughts on Trevor Rosenthal? The velocity is there, but he seems as broken as Rick Ankiel.

Jay Jaffe: I’m afraid he’s crossed into yips territory, yes. And while that’s largely and in many cases entirely psychological, there’s a chance that his surgery messed with his proprioception, which in this case is to say his perception of the relative positioning of his body parts during  his delivery. Here’s something from Driveline, I’m sure that guy can tell you a lot more https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2014/06/control-problems-mound-alway…

Pat: Agreed on the 80’s Tigers being viewed as disappointing after not being able to follow up 84. What killed them was lack of pitching depth after Morris. Petry got hurt, Wilcox got old, bullpen took a step back. Lineup was still really good, really into the mid 90’s.

Jay Jaffe: I think Sparky Anderson was something of a problem as well, in that he got complacent. Maybe another manager and GM could have gotten more out of that core of talent. Collusion, and the departures of Morris and Gibson, certainly had an impact, too.

Guest: How much does playing for a big market team help a player’s HoF case? Say an equal case, but player A played a good portion of their career for the NYY,BOS,LAD vs. Player B who played for a smaller market team.

Jay Jaffe: Ask Bernie Williams and Jorge Posada. Ask Ron Santo. On the other side of the coin, ask Tim Raines and Edgar Martinez.

I think the extent to which market size matters in HOF voting is overrated, as there are so many other factors involved.

Hello: Worried about Wilson Ramos yet?  Power gone and defense negative for first time ever.  31 year old catchers…..

Jay Jaffe: While I wouldn’t use ~25 games at the start of the season to render a final judgment on any player, and I would certainly be wary of defensive stats at the 25-game mark, I will say that I caught endless shit in this very forum for preferring Grandal to Ramos, in part due defense (including framing) and track record for health. Still, I don’t think the latter’s start is anything to panic over.

Jung Ho Kang Bang: How many more years doea Trout have as “The Best Player in tbe Game”?  Who is likely to dethrone him?

Jay Jaffe: I think that largely depends on his staying healthy. Given that we’re getting an up-close look at how fleeting various players’ runs at topping Trout can be — and here I’m thinking not only of Harper but also Lindor, Betts and Jose Ramirez — I’n not sure if his successor as best player is even in the majors yet. I suspect it will have to be somebody at a premium defensive position who’s augmenting top-shelf offense with elite glovework.

Guest: This isn’t said enough: Thank You for the chat. We appreciate it.

Jay Jaffe: You’re very welcome! I enjoy doing this, even if my occasionally curt answers come off as something less than that.

PD: Frank Tanana – the beta version of Jamie Moyer…

Jay Jaffe: Not really. Tanana had excellent velocity for his time and was a Cy Young contender, but was overworked — 43 complete games in 1976-77, including 14 straight in the latter season! He figured out how to pitch without his best fastball and stuck around forever, whereas Moyer was a late bloomer.

Jay Jaffe: Tanana and Sabathia have more in common than Tanana and Moyer, I think.

Matt: Does how quick players decline scare you? We talk about Mike Trout as historic, which he is. But don’t cases like A-Rod, Pujols, and Miggy petrify you? We didn’t see the decline in any of them happening THIS quickly. BUT BAM.

Jay Jaffe: the drugs may have helped but A-Rod didn’t have a sub-100 wRC+ until his age-40 season.

Sanford: RE: Guys who could dethrone Trout, it’s gotta be Acuña, right? I feel as though the current top tier of players, which includes those you mentioned (Lindor, Betts, Ramirez) are all already in their peaks–if they were to surpass Trout, either in terms of talent and/or production, they most likely would have done so by now. Acuña’s ceiling seems to be the most unknown, which might give him the best shot at reaching Trout’s level.

Jay Jaffe: If I had to bet on current MLBers to dethrone Trout, they might be Acuña and Tatis Jr., but the former has already been moved to LF primarily, so I wonder about his long-term outlook defensively.

Jay Jaffe: So many great questions but not enough time! Thanks for stopping by today. We’ll do it again next week…