Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/20/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s a gorgeous day here in Brooklyn, and while that may not make a difference to you if you’re staring at a computer screen, it’s lightening my mood just a bit.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about the Braves’ outfield situation with the return of Ronald Acuña Jr. finally on the horizon https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-the-braves-recover-from-their-sluggish-…

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on the Twins’ just-completed 13-game winning streak. That’s in the pipeline and should go up shortly.

Jay Jaffe: Tomorrow evening at 7 PM ET, I’ll be participating in a SABR roundtable on the subject of the recently reinstated Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson, along with Keith O’Brien (author of the recent Rose bio Charlie Hustle) and ESPN’s Don Van Natta Jr., who has reported on the reinstatement efforts regarding both Rose and Jackson. Jacob Pomrenke, an expert on Jackson and the 1919 Black Sox scandal, will serve as moderator. https://sabr.org/latest/this-week-in-sabr-may-16-2025#shoelessjoe

Jay Jaffe: It was just after last week’s chat wrapped up that all hell broke loose with the Rose news. My coverage of it is here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/say-it-aint-so-commissioner-manfred-posthu…

Jay Jaffe: And with that housekeeping out of the way, on with the show!

David Stearns: How gross is it that guys like Klapisch and Madden Yankee apologists are going after Soto and making up stories about him because he left the Yankees?

Jay Jaffe: So much of the Soto coverage lately constitutes a dark chapter in NYC baseball media history. He’s one of the best hitters on the planet, he’s in a bit of a slump compared to his usual performance. Reading into his every gesture or non-gesture while that goes on is just foolish and desperate.

MVP Race: Am I a tighter race than I might seem? Judge is god mode but like Cal Raleigh is going Demi-god mode in the hardest position in the game… At what point do we have a conversation?

Jay Jaffe: Call me in late August, when Judge is no longer hitting .400 or putting up a wRC+ that’s less than 80 points better than the 2nd-best hitter.

Jacky: Do you think Pete Rose will be inducted into the hall of fame eventually?

Jay Jaffe: As I wrote in March (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/never-is-a-long-long-time-permanent-inelig…), never and forever are both imponderably long times so the likelihood is that some day he’s elected. However, for reasons  I went into in the piece linked above, I don’t think it’s going to be automatic, and it’s entirely possible he falls short multiple times.

Your Name: When should the Pirates trade Skenes? For example, does having 4 years of control left fetch much more than having 3 years? -depressed in Pittsburgh

Jay Jaffe: Four years of control is generally gonna bring back more than three years, but — if the Pirates do reach the point of trading him — a lot will depend on his recent performance and what’s known about his health, which could vary and possibly delay the window to trade him. Likewise, trade deadlines can goose the returns a bit because they’re higher-leverage situations for teams to deal.

It’s pretty depressing to be talking about this as an inevitability but the past 30 years of the franchise doesn’t offer a lot of reasons to be optimistic with regards to retaining Skenes.

Jay Jaffe: Blame Nutting.

Al: Are there a lot of resources (training staff / coaching / idk dietician?) available to players at the big league level that are not available to the players in the minors?  Or are teams able to provide similar support at AAA/AA?  Is this one of the things the Dodgers are also the best at?

Jay Jaffe: Yes, the resources tend to be greater at the major league level than in the minors with regards to all the stuff you mention. The facilities and equipment are better; I don’t think you’re likely to come across one of those Trajekt Arc hitting machines in Double A. There are more coaches around, so that an assistant hitting coach or a director of pitching strategy (if there is one) might be able to supplement what he main hitting/pitching coach is imparting

Jay Jaffe: presumably the facilities are better for food prep/diet management as well.

Jay Jaffe: I’m not sure that the Dodgers are the best at any of these but they’re able to be very good at them thanks to their willingness to invest in those areas.

Eephus: Do you think J. Aranda is worth holding on in light of the limited playing time? I have Altuve and Donovan at 2B but Altuve has been atrocious (permanently benched for now). I need to make space for streaming pitchers but not sure who to drop. Other drop candidates are Baez & Ward. Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: I’m not going to tell you how to run your fantasy team — I haven’t played in 15 years — but I do think the Aranda breakout is real, as I wrote recently (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-long-awaited-jonathan-aranda-breakout), and I expect him to be playing regularly even if is a platoon-driven arrangement

Tim: Hi Jay. Don’t you think it’s time the Hall consider coaches ?  Or at least put them on the eligible list?   If Joe West and Ed Montague can be considered, shouldn’t Leo Mazzone, Charlie Lau, Frank Crosetti and others?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see it happening in terms of Hall membership though it would be cool to see a lifetime award granted for the best of them. The coaches you mentioned are famous and for good reason, but there are way too many moving parts to get a real sense of how much they improved a player or a team.

drplantwrench: ive been thinking a lot about Frank Robinson lately.  is he somehow underrated in the HoF pantheon?

Jay Jaffe: I do think so. he didn’t have Mays’ flair or Aaron’s longevity in racking up the big numbers, but he was right there with them for a long time, a fantastic player, an elite slugger and a hard-nosed competitor who chose to focus on his role as the game’s first Black manager rather than pressing for 3,000 hits and 600 homers.

Jay Jaffe: I always loved Jim Murray’s evocative quote about Robinson’s intensity: “Frank Robinson always went into second like a guy jumping through a skylight with a drawn Luger.” Used that as the epigram for my tribute after he passed away in 2019.

Jay Jaffe: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/frank-robinson-superstar-slugger-and-trail… I wrote that while I was on a ski vacation because IMO that’s what you do for a man of Robinson’s stature within baseball.

bringbackpologrounds: Do you consider Lindor the 3rd-best post-integration SS behind A-Rod and Ripken?

Jay Jaffe: I hadn’t thought about it in those terms, and I don’t think he’s earned that title yet; maybe he never will. The answer is still probably Ernie Banks. Even if roughly half his career was spent at first base, all seven years of his peak were from his time at shortstop, and his 52.0 WAR trails only those two you mentioned. Lindor is only 18th in peak WAR right now with several other post-integration SS above him including Boudreau, Yount, Trammell, Larkin, Noma, Ozzie, Jeter and Reese above him. But I suspect he’ll climb that list.

John: What should the Red Sox do about Trevor Story?  He had a good April, but he has come crashing back down to Earth, and the defense is now grading out as poor on top of everything else.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think the Red Sox are going to do anything rash — declare him a sunk cost or relegate him to the bench — as they’ve already done enough to piss off one key veteran in Devers. But I imagine they’re keeping their eyes on Story’s defense as Mayer develops, and I don’t think it’s out of the question Story could go back to 2B at some point. As for his flagging offense, the guy has missed a lot of time in recent years and I suspect he may have developed some bad habits that need fixing.

Plan B: It’s early, but you think Cashman is feeling himself over how Plan B is going?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think Brian Cashman sits around congratulating himself for a team that’s played well for the season’s first eight weeks, no.

Jay Jaffe: But yes, the team’s signings of Max Fried and Paul Goldscmidt look good, and Cody Bellinger has heated up lately to the point that his numbers no longer make my eyes water. Devin Williams’ struggles, OTOH, are sobering and proof that he didn’t somehow gain the Midas touch over the winter.

Sodo Mojo: Thank you for doing this one of the factors in the Mariners quick start is the play of Randy Arozarena who’s WRC+ is 138.  With Free Agency approaching if he keeps this up do you think he receives a QO from the Mariners.

Jay Jaffe: Arozarena has one more year of club control after this one. If he continues to hit, I expect he’ll be among those netting a qualifying offer — if he’s still a Mariner. I wouldn’t put it past Jerry Dipoto to flip him and gain more control, which might actually do Arozarena a solid if the deal is in the middle of his walk year.

Ken: Who do you think emerges from a very mediocre AL West?

Jay Jaffe: If George Kirby and Logan Gilbert can come back as expected, I like the Mariners’ chances. This is not the Astros juggernaut of yore, and the Rangers have a lot that’s not going right (Semien, Burger, Joc, Carter, back of the rotation)

PKPKPKPKPKPKPKPK: Freddie Freeman had his two highest WAR seasons after leaving ATL, and may make that three this year. Dansby Swanson has put up two consecutive 4+ WAR seasons, and is on track for a third, consistency he never had in ATL. Max Fried is pitching at a level he arguably never reached in Atlanta. William Contreras suddenly became a decent to excellent defensive catcher after leaving ATL. Is it fair to wonder if there’s a problem with the Braves getting the most out of their players? Or is this just a combination of hindsight being 20/20 and the Braves rough/up and down start?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s more the latter, not that a change of scenery hasn’t helped the players you mentioned. Freeman was outstanding in ATL and won an MVP and a World Series. Fried was part of that success and isn’t going to continue posting a 1.x ERA forever. Even Swanson’s best year by WAR and wRC+ was his walk year.

Jay Jaffe: Even if the likes of Albies and Riley can’t reach their previous heights, what the Braves have done with their largely homegrown core over the past several seasons has been mighty impressive and I’m not about to shut the door on them continuing to be successful.

War2d2: Hey Jay! What do the various teams that need closers (or even functional middle relief) do at this point? Phillies and Cubs come immediately to mind. Last season it was obvious that someone was going to win the Tanner Scott lottery, but a similar trade doesn’t really pop out at me this season.

Jay Jaffe: Get ready for the excitement of the Kyle Finnegan lottery!

Jay Jaffe: I expect Kenley Jansen to be available, maybe even Aroldis Chapman if the Red Sox continue to scuffle. And then some teams may realize that their next closer might be on their current roster and is just one tweak of a pitch grip away from dominating.

nate: I saw a mock trade proposal with Skenes to the braves in exchange for Baldwin, Smith-Shawver, Caminiti and alveraz. Disregarding the plausibility, which side would come on top

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think anybody should be trading for the late Ken Caminiti right now.

Laura: Alcantara,hold or drop? Sure do miss living in Prospect Park.

Jay Jaffe: Might be time to drop him as the results have not improved in the least.

Tj: If you had a $700MM contract, wouldn’t you hustle every time you hit the ball?!!

Jay Jaffe: If I had a $700 million contract i’d want to make sure that I am as healthy as possible for as long as possible knowing that I’ll still be playing while these old white shit-stirrers are half-forgotten.

Jonah: Does “feeling like a Hall-of-Famer” factor at all into your HOF evaluation or voting?  And when fans or writers say someone “feels like a Hall-of-famer” (or doesn’t), how much of that is because of on-field play vs. things like demeanor, off-field stuff, and even looks?  Thinking about two sabermetric darlings who have had major Hall debates recently in Bobby Abreu and Scott Rolen, both of whom Phillies fans of that era frequently say “didn’t feel like Hall-of-famers” despite metrics that seem to back up a case for induction.

Jay Jaffe: It’s a small part in my evaluations. I’d like to think that the work I’ve done with JAWS has illustrated that sometimes greatness is hiding in plain sight, as not everything that gives a player value shows up in the antiquated box scores we grew up reading.

Jay Jaffe: Thus there are under-recognized great players who may not have always gotten their due in their day. We can understand why Chase Utley’s lack of Gold Gloves might have an impact on how voters receive him, while also knowing and conveying that defensive metrics show he was elite and helped make him a great player.

RandoDude: With Oscar Gonzales getting released by the Padres and going to the NPB, how does that work? Are NPB scouts tampering by sniffing around?

Jay Jaffe: Gonzalez was in the minors when he was released — a request the Padres granted so he could head to Japan. I’m not sure if it’s in the uniform player contract or if it’s specifically part of some minor league deals, but many contracts do have outs — if you’re not on the major league roster at a certain date you can elect free agency — or upward mobility clauses. Gonzalez’s agent may have had previous contact with an NPB team, and with him in the minors, I’m guessing he would have been allowed to discuss upgrading his circumstances.

Tj: Any thoughts on whether Eddie Cicotte might eventually be on a ballot?  Or any of the other “black Sox”

Jay Jaffe: Doubt it. Nobody has let popular culture pull the wool over their eyes regarding Cicotte’s participation in the scheme the way they have Jackson’s. Like Jackson, he took the gamblers’ money. Full stop, that should be disqualifying.

HOF: Personally I care less about keeping Rose out now that he can’t profit from it and hear the cheers. Emotionally those are the things that bother me. But I know your own feelings and he was an awful person so I’d still rather him stay out

Jay Jaffe: I understand that point of view, and it serves to remind us that Pete Rose didn’t win by being reinstated. He still lost — income and adulation and the cheers he would have received — and he earned that loss big time.

Jay Jaffe: here’s my piece on the Twins’ turnaround: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-twins-have-turned-things-around/

War2d2: re:coaches, that Don Zimmer isn’t in the Hall just for being Don Zimmer is a tragedy.

Jay Jaffe: He’s in the Hall of Famous For Having a Plate in His Head

Pudge: I really, really want Mike Elias to play a game of Catan at some point to learn a thing or two about basic resource allocation. You can’t win the game with just sheep! You need to acquire some ore at some point! It doesn’t matter how amazing your sheep pipeline is! And the ore he does acquire is Cole Irvin, Trevor Rodgers, Kyle Gibson, ….

Jay Jaffe: And I really want people to think about all of the hot air David Rubenstein spewed about spending big in Baltimore when he first bought the team versus the reality that he’s a big voice in beating the drum for a salary cap. The owner sets the budget, and the GM/POBO spends the money. The latter may spend it ways that don’t pan out, but I’m not ready to believe (as some have suggested) that Elias was telling Rubenstein not to spend on pitching.

Guest: how do i access bullpen data?

Jay Jaffe: For leagues, teams, or players, choose “as RP” in the Positional Split drop-down menu: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=0&t…

Jim: With Alvarado out for 80 games and the postseason, Phillies fans have resumed their clamoring for an impact reliever like Mason Miller. Isn’t it better to churn through AAA arms and try to hit a lottery ticket for six weeks (NOT Andrew Painter) than to mortgage actual prospect capital for a not-sure thing?

Jay Jaffe: the Phillies have time to do both, to check out their in-house options and to make an impact move at the deadline, whether for Miller or someone else. Yes, Miller will take real capital to acquire, but he’s got 3 years of club control after this so it’s not just a fleeting acquisition.

Boog: Is now the time for an Adley or Gunnar extension, to signal to the team and the fans that the window is not closing for the O’s just yet?

Jay Jaffe: it certainly wouldn’t hurt matters but it’s rare to see extensions signed in-season and right now, I am not sure either of those players is looking around and thinking, “Sign me up for 10 more years of this”

Jake: In light of Devers refusal to play a different position, do you think part of Javy Baez’s recent renaissance could be due to a position change? Or something different?

Jay Jaffe: Let’s be clear about Devers: what the Red Sox were asking — for a player who didn’t get any reps in the field during spring training as he rehabbed his shoulders, and whom the team bumped to a DH role by signing another free agent — to learn a brand new position on the fly in mid-season — was unreasonable.

Jay Jaffe: yes, you’d like every player to be gung-ho about embracing a challenge but not everyone is wired the same way.

As for Báez, I saw it suggested somewhere that the opportunity to play for a good team after a few years of doing so for a bad one may have provided some motivation, but he’s been a versatile player since reaching the majors, and his worst seasons were the ones he was playing only shortstop.

PPI: Now that we’ve had a couple years of the Prospect Promotion Incentive, what are your thoughts?  Do we need to solve the problem of teams calling up prospects early but then sending them down quickly if they don’t hit the ground running to avoid the player earning a full year of service time?

Jay Jaffe: The PPI seems OK to me. I don’t see a problem if a team calls up a prospect but then sends him down if he doesn’t perform, as it’s perfectly acceptable to take into account competitive concerns when it comes to player promotion.

Ross: What do you make of Julio? He is striking out less and walking more, but we are now 4 years of trending down wRC+ at 148, 128, 116, and 112 (small sample for that last one obviously)? He is still a top 30 player in baseball, but he feels like such a disappointment compared to expectations. Do you think he ever ascends to perennial top 10 player or are there too many holes in his game for that level of consistency?

Jay Jaffe: There’s so much talent there and he’s still just 24. I see the diminishing returns and understand the frustration, but I’m not at all ready to count him out.

Larry: What do you think is going on with Matt McLean?   He has been terrible at the plate so far this year.   Do you think he will bounce back and at what point does playing time become a risk?

Jay Jaffe: missing a full year due to injury can take a long time to overcome. Right now McLain is making good contact, but he’s striking out almost 33% of the time, a big spike particularly given that he’s swinging less and chasing less than 2023. To me this suggests rust may be his biggest problem, and if it’s a shoulder injury he’s returning from, there maybe physical or psychological reasons why he doesn’t quite trust it yet.

Something I found out: Looking up something to see how rare it would be if Judge ended up with .330/50 hr, and there’s never been a season with 50 hr between Bonds 01 (.328) and a Foxx season at .349. But anyway if he can manage .330 50 it’ll be the first time since Mantle 56

Jay Jaffe: Very interesting note!

Fall Classic: Would 400 career home runs get Kyle Schwarber into the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: No, and I don’t even think I could support him going in with 500. Between terrible defense and a DH-only path going forward he’s not going to end up with anywhere close to David Ortiz’s 55 career bWAR (he’s at 17 and is in his age-32 season).

Ollie North: Alcantara is wearing a (blank) uniform on September 1

Jay Jaffe: Marlins. He’s signed through next year, with an option for 2027, and there’s no reason to trade him while his value is so depressed.

Leland: Hi Jay! What do the Giants do with Jordan Hicks? He pitched his way out of the rotation, and has not had success thus far in the bullpen despite how hard he throws. He’s owed a ton of money. No easy choices!

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s worth scrapping the entire experiment just yet because the stuff is there; the fastball grades out low via PitchingBot and Stuff+ but the sinker, slider and (so far rarely-used) splitter all grade well. If I’m the Giants I’m trying to make tweaks to get him back to being a member of the rotation instead of just another bullpen arm.

Paulie_Eff: Yordan Alvarez’ hand = Kyle Tucker’s shin?  What to make of this Astro’s IL shenanigans?

Jay Jaffe: Shenanigans? Everything I’ve read about Alvarez says he’s not ready to swing at full strength yet. I’m sure they want him back

Guest: Hi Jay! New to your content. My son plays for the Canadians. I was looking for statcast type data, which I understand I can’t get at the high A level. Looking at your page, you have have some very good data I’m in the process of checking out! Your X profile is locked but I did just follow you.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the kind words but a) it’s not MY data, it’s the data of my employer; and b) there’s no point in following me on Xitter as I don’t post there anymore. Follow me on Bluesky at @jayjaffe.bsky.social instead.

War2d2: Followup about potential closers: you said teams might realize their next closer is already on the team. That made me think of Ben Brown on the Cubs—he’s a 2-pitch FA/KC pitcher that mostly gets by (to the extent that he even does) on elite velo for a starter. I feel like his best place in the pen where he can just grip it and rip it. Thoughts?

Jay Jaffe: That certainly fits the reliever profile, and odds are that it’s his eventual fate, but I don’t think it’s necessary to give up on him as a starter yet.

Don Camillo: Kenny Lofton highest CF JAWS not in the Hall, and never really contended on the ballot.  Is he going in this year Eras?

Jay Jaffe: he may not even get on the ballot given the crowd of players that did get substantial support on BBWAA ballots — Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Kent, Sheffield. Electorally speaking, there’s almost no future for a player who went one-and-done on the writers’ ballot; the Historical Overview Committees have resisted putting such players on ballots (Simmons is the only one to do it twice — and the only one elected — and he had a vocal proponent on the committee).

Jay Jaffe: But no, i don’t expect Lofton to be elected anytime soon

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, that’s it from me for today! thanks so much for stopping by, and do check out that SABR Zoom thing tomorrow if you can’t get enough of the Rose/Jackson discussion (sorry, had to pass on a good but lengthy q here because it would take so much time to do justice).