Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/7/21

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and Happy Bartolo Colon Home Run Day to you all!

Jay Jaffe: It’s the fifth anniversary of this magnificent shot https://www.mlb.com/video/colon-s-first-career-homer-c669896583

Jay Jaffe: which, as I explained in this Twitter thread, holds special significance at Casa Jaffe-Span

Jay Jaffe: My piece on the Angels’ DFA of Albert Pujols just went up a short time ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-angels-finally-bite-the-bullet-by-cutt…

Jay Jaffe: It follows a piece I did just yesterday on how bad their defense has been https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-angels-rotation-woes-have-a-lot-to-do-…

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, on with the show!

Chase: How can rooting for a team that has Mike “freakin” Trout, Shohei “freakin” Ohtani, Anthony “freakin” Rendon, and now, apparently, Jared Walsh and Dylan Bundy be so effing frustrating? The pitching and defense have obviously been bad, but holy moly, this franchise is the most infuriating.

Jay Jaffe: As I noted in my Pujols piece, the Angels had one of the great drafts hauls ever in 2009, the year they chose Trout, and they’ve been dreadful in that area since, with David Fletcher’s 6.8 WAR the most they’ve gotten from anybody for themselves and it’s not even close. The extent to which the Angels will spend big money but fail to develop homegrown talent reminds me of the Buzzie Bavasi years in the late 1970s and early ’80s, when they traded away a boatload of talent that I saw play at Triple-A Salt Lake. Willie Aikens, Dickie Thon, Tom Brunansky, Brian Harper, etc.

Jay Jaffe: Rance Mulliniks!

Marshall: Willie Mays had 6 of his 10 best (by WAR) seasons after turning 30, including his three best. How many of Mike Trout’s best years will come after this year (his age-29 season)?

Jay Jaffe: Fewer than 6 out of 10 but holy hell is he off to a flying start this year, which I think will windup as one of his best.

Joe: Can you describe what is included in Pujol’s “personal services contract” post-retirement with the Angels?  I realize franchise players regularly make appearances, do the Old Timers stuff, fantasy camps, and Spring Training roving instructor stuff, but will Pujols really command that 10 years after he retires at $1M a year?  Is this in hopes he enters the HoF (somehow) as an Angel, as opposed to a Cardinal?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t seen the clause but you now those “special advisor” roles? This is usually the way it works. While I think Arte Moreno hopes Pujols enters the Hall as an Angel, there’s no way in hell anybody at the Hall is going to let that happen.

Tacoby Bellsbury: With this being the fifth anniversary of Bartolo Colon Dinger Day, who is your favorite bad-bodied (or dad-bodied) major leaguer, and why?

Jay Jaffe: Fernando Valenzuela

WinTwins0410: Jay, if Albert Pujols never had played a game with the Angels and ended his career after his time with the Cards, was he still a Hall of Famer?  80-plus WAR, 445 HRs, 2,000 hits — I’d say so.  Curious your take.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know that he would have mustered 75% in his first year but by JAWS he’d have ranked 4th among 1B at 74.2! He was Mike Trout before Mike Trout.

Brian: Jim Edmonds on Cardinals’ broadcasts keeps talking about how pitchers aren’t throwing any harder than they were 20 years ago, its just measured different in the Statcast era.  Any merit to his argument?

Jay Jaffe: Jim may have run into the outfield wall one too many times, because unless we expect there to have been a dip between 2001 and 2008, when we started getting PitchF/X data, his statement holds no water. The average fastball in 2008 was 90.3 mph, whereas this year it’s 93.3, and it’s never decreased from one year to the next in that span.

Jay Jaffe: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0…

John b: The tigers DHs are hitting .117.  Could Pujols or Willie Mays be an upgrade ?

Jay Jaffe: Jesus, Felipe, and Matty Alou, it’s bleak. Miguel Cabrera is hitting .098/.179/.213 while splitting time at DH and 1B, and if he weren’t chasing both the 3,000 hit and 500 homer milestones, I suspect he’d get the Pujols treatment as well.

Jake: I saw your doppelganger in my town ball game last night. No question, just a comment. Your unknown twin played a mean third.

Jay Jaffe: Third base wasn’t my best position, that’s for sure, but both my father and especially my grandfather — who played at the U of Maryland and was allegedly offered a professional contract — were very good at the hot corner.

BT: Mets firing their hitting coaches – Good or bad move

Jay Jaffe: Scapegoating hitting coaches is a time-honored pastime of dysfunctional organizations, and the Mets showed that even with the Wilpons gone, they are still dysfunctional as hell. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-mets-make-a-mess-of-their-offensive-st…

Tel: A few weeks ago I had to waste several hours with our annual online compliance training.  At the beginning of several of the modules it gave instruction for how to complete the course if you were using a JAWS viewer.  I smell a multimillion dollar copyright and/or trademark infringement lawsuit and retirement to Fiji in your future.

Jay Jaffe: do they have baseball in Fiji? Does the country need a modern-day Lefty O’Doul? Asking for a friend.

Elliot: I just think it’s neat that Acuña is playing so well while still getting extremely unlucky. His BABIP is now below .300!

Jay Jaffe: So weird. I know Dan Szymborski is working on a zBABIP (expected BABIP) piece and I’d imagine Acuña will be mentioned

Heynong: Lux for Huira… is that too crazy? Thought process being if LA’s magic hasn’t worked on Lux yet, and maybe they know it won’t. And maybe they can figure out what’s wrong with Huira.

Jay Jaffe: I can’t see either of those franchises making a knee-jerk move based on a top prospect struggling to adapt to the majors.

Justin: When will LAD finally hand over the 2b gig to Michael Busch?

Jay Jaffe: … which doesn’t mean that the Dodgers should sit idly by while Lux struggles. Sending him to Triple-A and getting some production from the spot should be a priority given the team’s struggles. A look at Busch — whose defense is likely to be shaky there, but that can be worked around, if second baseman Max Muncy can — would seem to be part of that menu.

Pat: What would a hypothetical John Means trade look like right now? Comparable package to Snell? Worse?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know what it would look like but Snell had already won a Cy Young by the time he was traded, and he has the cost certainty of a below-market contract that runs through 2023. So even if the years of control are the same, I don’t think the package for Means would be nearly as valuable.

Jay T: Ramon Laureano’s stat cast numbers look good – supporting his current production.  Is it reasonable to project him as a 25+ hr and 20+ sb type player annually?

Jay Jaffe: Our Depth Charts projection for him is at 20 HR/14 SB for this, his age-26 season, and ZiPS sees him as getting to 25 homers, but it’s the running game that’s the question.

Heynong: Knowing the Brewers are low on trade resources, any thoughts on the idea of trying to swing a trade with Miami for Aguilar and Rojas? Upgrades at two problem spots.Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: The Brewers seem to be pretty aggressive and creative when it comes to deadline deals so I’d imagine those guys would be among their potential targets. The question is what that would cost them, and I don’t have a great sense of what they’re willing to give up except that it won’t be Hiura.

John b: What are we to make of the Pirates?  They seem very competitive and their most expensive player, Polanco, is terrible.  If you strip him away they have a payroll of $33 million playing .500 ball

Jay Jaffe: eh, they’re 13-17 with a -29 run differential and an 84 wRC+. They don’t look much better via BaseRuns or their rest-of-season projection. Polanco, man, what a bummer of an outcome, but I don’t see the aggregate of what else is going on there to be particularly encouraging.

WinTwins0410: Jay, who is the best starting pitcher in your Hall of Very Good? IE, who is the single best starting pitcher in your view who nonetheless falls short of the Hall of Fame for you? (Let’s exclude juicers/suspected juicers, including Kevin Brown and Andy Pettitte, and for the purposes of this argument, let’s also exclude Curt Schilling.) Is it Rick Reuschel? Tommy John? Jim McCormick? Dock Ellis? (I kid about that last one.) Someone else?

Jay Jaffe: Tough one but I’d say Reuschel, Tommy John, and Orel Hershiser in the mix, and my line would probably have Tiant, Cone, Saberhagen, and Stieb (plus Brown) in the Hall.

Kyle B: I can’t but feel like this is a season the Yankees make a blockbuster trade at the deadline…

Jay Jaffe: They’re gonna need something. Probably a starter and a reliever and maybe a backup catcher.

Andrew: Hey Jay, this is random, but any thoughts on the likelihood of the Yankees playing Stanton in the field this year? I remember reading something in ST about him taking reps in the outfield, but thus far they haven’t put him there in an actual game. I know they’re concerned with his injury history, but by the metrics, it doesn’t look like he was ever terrible out there…

Jay Jaffe: While he’s hitting the way he is, I don’t think they’re going to entertain that notion. It’s not that he’s bad out there, but they’ve had such a hard time keeping him healthy and productive that anything to upset the equilibrium — even him picking up a Wilson catalog to look at gloves — is probably off limits.

Senzel stalled out?: Have injuries sapped Senzel’s future value? He had a 70 FV bat once, any upside left?

Jay Jaffe: He’s got a .298 xBA and .483 xSLG, so I wouldn’t bury him just yet, but it sure would be nice to see more out of him.

Charley: Will Snell ever pitch 6innings ever again? Have him in dynasty with QS. He’s so useless.. can you tell me how the heck did he win his Cy young? Cheated his way??

Jay Jaffe: Snell’s big problem is efficiency. Even at his best he was walking ~9% of batters, and he’s up to 12.8% so far this year, that while averaging 4.14 pitches per plate appearance, which is 8th in the NL. Couple the inefficiency with the history of arm injuries and you have a guy who’s gonna be on a short leash.

Not Sandy Alderson: This is pedantic, but could you answer a payroll question? The Mets DFA’d Brad Brach earlier in the season, paying his whole salary. When the Royals selected Brach to the roster, even though he didn’t play, was that pro-rated salary for the season subtracted from the Mets’ luxury tax commitments for the season?

Jay Jaffe: The only thing the Royals pay and the Mets recoup is the minimum salary prorated to however many days he’s being paid by another team.

Questioner: I know it’s super early, but have you given any thought about what Ohtani’s eventually hall of fame case could look like? I feel like he’s probably the sort of player who should be considered beyond just his JAWS score.

Jay Jaffe: No idea what his case might look like but I do have one precedent in the Hall in Monte Ward (John Montgomery Ward), who split his career between pitching and position play, mainly shortstop. His JAWS, based on his best seven seasons combining his pitching and hitting, is 64.0/41.3/52.7, which is damn respectable for a 19th century player playing shorter schedules.

Dalton Wilcox: Tim Hudson? Dave Stieb?

Jay Jaffe: Mentioned Stieb. Hudson’s definitely a HOVG-not-HOF guy, and same with Buehrle and Pettitte if we’re talking about current candidates.

Curtis: How much of Dustin May’s “breakout” possibly contributed to his injury?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know that it was particularly the breakout so much as it was the fact that he’s such a hard thrower to begin with. A widely circulated 2016 study found that throwing high-velo fastballs about half the time increases the risk of needing TJ, and May certainly fits that profile.  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S105827461600023…

Mr. Burrito: Was/is Albert’s age accurate? His peak came early (and lasted a long time), as did the start of the decline. All that said, he’s one of my favorite all time players. Spectacularly great at the obvious stuff and sneaky great at things you might not notice (baserunning, 1B defense, etc.)….

Jay Jaffe: People have been theorizing this for years, and anecdotally, the shape of his career fits the theory, but nobody has ever produced any proof. If his age was falsified, it was as bulletproof a job as has been executed in baseball history

baseball enjoyer: JV called a press conference for this afternoon. Retirement announcement or routine update?

Jay Jaffe:

Dalton Wilcox: Is Kris Bryant forcing the cubs to play him in CF some kind of plan he and Borass concocted to extract more money out of some poor owner?

Jay Jaffe: Positional versatility is very valuable, albeit in ways that are tough to quantify.    Also, to see what they’ve done to the roster I believe that that the Ricketts family is MLB’s poorest ownership group.

Worried Mets Fan: What do you make of Lindor’s horrendous start, couple with a down (half) year last year?

Jay Jaffe: Addressed in previous Mets link above. Seems to be mechanically out of whack, might be listening to advice from too many directions

Isolated Thinker: Not the same circumstances but the Pujols thing reminds me of what happened with Cespedes last year.  Player benched.  Player upset.  Player immediately off the roster.  Did Pujols act unprofessionally and come across as me-first rather than team-first in your opinion?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t read anything that characterized Pujols’ behavior that way or as anything less than professionalism. He believes he’s swinging the bat better than his numbers indicate (and by Statcast, he has a point) and that he should be playing every day. The Angels feel otherwise.

Nobody ever accused Pujols of not showing up and putting in the work. Cespedes… let’s just say that during his past few years that attendance, work ethic, and accountability have not been his strongest suits.

Mr. Burrito: Favorite Hll of the Very Good pitchers should include your favorite bad body — Fernando!

Jay Jaffe: A fair point. Added.

Guest: Which team do you think is most likely to take an (in my opinion) ill-advised flyer on Pujols, perhaps as a “veteran presence for the young guys” or something similar?

Jay Jaffe: I ran down nearly a dozen options in today’s piece and outside of the Reds losing Votto for a month and not having an obvious fill-in, I can’t see any that really justifies the trouble.

The Stranger: Wasn’t there an article where Pujols talked about hitting against Octavio Dotel as a teen and it worked out that he was 3 years older than he’s listed as if he remembered it right?

Jay Jaffe: David Samson said it. David Samson says lots of things.

diadem: Where does Paddack fit in when he comes back?

Jay Jaffe: Probably back in the rotation. They’ve had some injuries, still have concerns about Lamet, and I can’t see them rushing Gore to the majors

Tommy2: Is there a meaningful difference in performance of hitters and pitchers in day games vs. night games?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t looked to see the extent to which it holds up but it’s generally believed that hitters have the advantage during the day because they see the ball better.

stever20: when will the Tigers do the same thing with Miggy?

Jay Jaffe: Man, if he doesn’t get the milestones this year — still needs 128 hits and 11 homers — I don’t see how they can keep him around.

WinTwins0410: Jay, it feels like Pete Rose really has left the scene in terms of fans/HoF discussion. I can’t think of the last time I heard his name/case really discussed robustly.  Is it fair to say that at this point, there’s just nothing much more to say about Charlie Hustle?

Jay Jaffe: it’s as dead a horse as there is but it will continue to be beaten past the point of Rose’s death because every scandal creates a false-equivalence opening for idiots to come out of the woodwork ( “Steroids? Sign-stealing? How can you not ban those guys but ban Pete Rose?”) as if the penalty for gambling hadn’t been EXPLICITLY spelled out a century ago.

Guest: Pujols talked about hitting against Dotel in a podcast.

Jay Jaffe: will have to look into this more closely outside the chat but I’m still skeptical there’s a gotcha moment ehre

Dalton Wilcox: Is Lamet not the perfect example of people overrating the crap out of 2020 results? I feel like something happened that has been slightly downplayed

Jay Jaffe: The stuff was certainly there before 2020. 30.6% strikeout rate in 2017 and ’19. then he stopped allowing homers at a time that a whole lot were flying out. So no, I don’t think this is a perfect example.

Tigers Fan: Using your crystal ball…do you think Cody Bellinger will make it to the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: I’d guess not. Already we’ve see wide variances in his year-to-year performances.

Guest: Any idea why Bill Dahlen never made it into the HOF?

Jay Jaffe: He’s been considered a bunch of times and gotten some support (10/16 in 2013, 8/16 in 2016) but those committees include a whole lot of ex-ballplayers, none of whom is especially well-versed in 19th century baseball, and too few historians.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, it’s time for me to roll! Thanks so much for stopping by this week. Stay safe — if you haven’t gotten vaccinated yet, please go get that shot as soon as you can, and work on getting those 12-15 year olds their shots ASAP too— and we’ll see you next week.