Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 6/3/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to my Tuesday afternoon chat. Please bear with me a moment while I get my lunch order squared away…

Jay Jaffe: OK that’s done — fried chicken sandwich on the way…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I took a look at the Alexis Díaz trade (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/dodgers-hope-to-fix-alexis-diaz-and-bolste…), the latest in a long line of fix-it attempts by the Dodgers, who now have an astounding 15 pitchers on the injured list.

Jay Jaffe: Speaking of which, last night’s Mets-Dodgers game was a thriller that kept me up way too late. A Lindor leadoff homer! An Ohtani answer homer with a great call by Gary Cohen, and a game-tying sac fly in the 9th! And yet another Tanner Scott meltdown that decided the game.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on the Astros’ recent surge and slew of injuries that should go up shortly. And now, on with the show

drplantwrench: i’ve had this debate with some baseball friends – which is the better stat: Quality Starts or Win-Loss?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll take quality starts, which imply the run prevention context. I know people get hung up on the 4.50 ERA by a 6-inning, 3-run start but as I showed more than a decade ago, those are comparatively small % of starts, and when pitchers record a QS their collective ERA is generally below 2.00

Boo-urns for Corbin: Really really really really really hoping that Corbin Burnes isn’t out for the year.

But on that note – its somewhat frustrating, too, to think that Burnes is one of the best pitchers of the past half-decade by most standards or statistics…and it still feels like he’s a long shot for the Hall of Fame, whether or not he’s out for another year. This more speaks to the frustration for SPs re: HoF, but it’s mind boggling to think that there are plenty of modern hitters who will fit the bill, but there are entire generations where the top pitchers are just not at that bar.

I guess that question is – what would have to happen for a top pitcher like Burnes – again, broadly considered to be one of the best of his generation/era/etc. – to be considered Hall worthy?

Jay Jaffe: Believe me, I get your frustration, not only with regards to Burnes (hoping for the best and expecting the worst after seeing that clip, but at least he wasn’t doubled over in agony) but to the dearth of next-gen Hall of Fame starting pitcher candidates.

Jay Jaffe: It’s something I’ve thought about a lot, with no clear resolution other than the idea that voters are going to have to come around to the idea that pitchers with fewer than 200 wins can be Hallworthy. Burnes, who’s now in his age-30 season, has just 63 wins and 19.2 bWAR. his 3.19 ERA is impressive (131 ERA+), but even while throwing 190+ innings at that level for the past three seasons, he’s only averaged 3.8 WAR, and has just one season of 4.0 or better (5.3 in 2021, when he led the NL in ERA and won a CY).

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s still gonna need a bunch of 5-WAR seasons to look like a realistic candidate. he’ll benefit by having the likes of deGrom and Cole ahead of him in line for Hall consideration; maybe by the time he’s eligible, voters’ views on what makes a Hall starter will have shifted. But he needs health and excellence going forward, and that’s an increasingly tough combo to find.

Lord Thunder: Have the constant string of injuries already effectively ruined Luis Robert Jr.’s career?

Jay Jaffe: the injuries certainly haven’t helped, but moving to a modern organization with people who can help him try regain what’s been lost is an absolute necessity

Ceddanne Rafaela: I’ve seen a lot of Sox fans wondering if Rafaela could be traded. Does he have positive trade value, or would they have to eat some of that contract given his offensive struggles?

Jay Jaffe: his defense is so good that he has considerable near-term value as a 3-win player even if his bat doesn’t come around (he has 10 DRS and 9 FRV in center in just 57 games). I think he’d be an interesting flyer for a team that has enough offense at the outfield corners to make up for it but I wouldn’t expect a stellar return to the Red Sox.

Eddie: Is Ryan Yarborough Nestor (lite perhaps) 2.0?

Jay Jaffe: Probably too early to say but he’s reworked his repertoire and is missing bats like never before. it’s an interesting development worth keeping an eye on.

Jay Jaffe: Lunch has arrived. Spicy fried chicken sandwich from Marcus Samuelson’s Streetbird, much better than at Yankee Stadium, where edible food goes to die

Rick: Royce Lewis 0 for his last 30, sitting half the time, and talk of him being sent down. IF he stays healthy, what kind of long-term value does he have?

Jay Jaffe: Good lord, that’s grim. At the moment, he doesn’t have a lot of value but we’ve seen him enough to know that he’s quite streaky. Hopefully the Twins can sort him out — his struggles date back to late last year.

Austin: If I asked you who the most valuable hitter on the “best” team in baseball would be through this point in the season, how many guesses would it have taken for you to guess Dillon Dingler?

Jay Jaffe: if you defined it as “most valuable position player” I might have a shot if i were staring at a roster, but FWIW he’s only 5th in wRC+ among the regulars so “hitter” obscures the question.

Oaktown Blues: Do you think Mark Kotsay’s managerial job is in Jeopardy given This nightmarish stretch for the A’s?

Jay Jaffe: Color me skeptical. The A’s have put Kotsay through a lot with this relocation and the ******* ballpark situation and unless he’s really lost the clubhouse I have to think he’ll survive the season.

Scott’s Tots: Tanner Scott going to turn it around?

Jay Jaffe: Before the ice caps melt? Yeah, probably. In time to help the Dodgers this week? Probably not

Jay Jaffe: His skid has been 6 innings across seven outings with 12 runs allowed. not sure if he’s gutting out some kind of injury while trying to remain available or if his mechanics are just off a bit; the velo is the same and the pitch modeling metrics don’t show an appreciable change.

Oaktown Blues: Jacob Wilson, 150 wRC+ guy? xWOBA is skeptical. What say you?

Jay Jaffe: Not a 150 wRC+ guy but FWIW his ROS projections are about 135, which puts his overall mark around 140. Wild, but it’s working very well right now.

Guest: If a one-team player gets traded, and  after the contract ends, he either retires or re-signs with his old team, would you still consider him to be a one-team player?

Jay Jaffe: no, because he played for two teams, right?

Sanford: Seems like the site does often not update player pages after someone has passed away (i.e. still counting the ages of Rickey Henderson, Octavio Dotel, even Gary Carter, to name a few that I checked). Is this known/being worked on?

Jay Jaffe: From what I understand, it’s a data supplier issue; we don’t manually update those. I’ll pass along a note though.

Noah: Do you think Barger’s hot start is real, and how up or down are you on Santander/Gimenez?

Jay Jaffe: Barger is crushing the ball, and it’s interesting to note that he just got his first two starts at third base against lefties this year. I don’t know what’s going on with Santander but Gimenez’s offense has significantly waned since that huge 2022 season — though his current xwOBA is only a few points off of it. Might be worth a closer look.

Sodo mojo: Assuming  they are both available which 1b rental would you rather have at the deadline O’hearns or Naylor

Jay Jaffe: For a short-term rental I probably prefer O’Hearn because he finds the barrel more often, but it’s a toss-up between those two, at least for me.

SophiaK: How do we make sense of the Mets ability to take a pile of seemingly middling pitchers and remake them on the fly to collectively be one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Luck, or a secret sauce? And assuming the latter, are pitchers lining up to sign with the Mets going forward?

Jay Jaffe: I definitely think there’s something to what they’re doing — they’ve already become a destination for free agent pitchers of a certain ilk, not unlike the Dodgers.

Ed: Is Ben Rice going to Atlanta for a certain game this july?

Jay Jaffe: Considering that Aaron Boone will be the manager I think there’s a good chance if he doesn’t bottom out in June.

Jay Jaffe: Oh hey, my Astros piece is up https://blogs.fangraphs.com/despite-high-profile-injuries-and-struggle…

Tigs: What’s Dylan Crews’s ceiling?

Jay Jaffe: He was a 60 FV prospect — a future All-Star — according to Eric Longenhagen and others on the preseason lists, and I don’t think eight weeks of struggling to start his age-23 season changes that.

Matt: At BRef, the similarity scores by age for Aaron Judge have me wondering both how good Brian Giles was and, at the same time, is Brian Giles really the best comparison for the career arc Aaron Judge is on? Becoming part of the “one of the best hitters ever” conversation in your early thirties?

Jay Jaffe: Similarity scores by age are pretty outmoded at this point, as they depend on raw stats and make no reference to scoring context. Giles was an excellent, underrated player but also a real creep https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/12/24/jaws-2015-hall-of-fame-ballot-brian-…

Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t compare Giles to Judge except that they’re All-Star outfielders with power and patience who played in the 21st century. Giles was built like a fire hydrant. Dave Winfield with more power and patience would be a better comp given Judge’s size.

Cube Jockey: Does the Eras Committee take some of the fun out of speculating about HOF voting?  Eventually a panel of 16, with some likely to have a professional connection to the candidates, will get a change to overturn the collective opinion of the baseball writing community.

Jay Jaffe: There are times when the collective opinion of the baseball writing community hasn’t been worth a warm bucket of spit, and times when it’s just been completely polarized by PEDs. The format drives me nuts and could use reform; it’s imperfect but so is the writers’ vote.

Larry: Brett Baty or Cam Smith for the rest of the season?

Jay Jaffe: Smith’s path to playing time is unimpeded. Baty’s is more complicated given the Mets’ depth but I do think he’s making some real progress

War2d2: If Burnes is indeed out for the remainder of the season the DBacks are almost certainly going to have to sell, right? As it is they’re 7.5 out and 3 games under. What parts do you think they’d move in that scenario? Suarez seems like a perennial trade candidate, but I don’t know what his contract status is offhand.

Jay Jaffe: You can see every player’s contract status at RosterResource: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/diamondbacks

Jay Jaffe: Suárez, Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Jalen Beeks, Shelby Miller, and Josh Naylor are their pending free agents. If they do sell, I’d bet on most or all of those guys to move, but i”m not convinced we’re there yet — remember, the Diamondbacks did make the playoffs without Burnes last year. They really do need Gallen to turn it around, though.

Ben Clemens wrote about the Arizona starters today https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-the-diamondbacks-survive-their-rotatio…

HOF Managers: How do you think the Hall will treat these more middle-management type managers in the future? Are Dusty, Bochy, and Francona the last active ones you see getting in?

Jay Jaffe: Not at all. Dave Roberts is already clearly on his way, and guys like Kevin Cash and Craig Counsell has laid some groundwork, but they’ll have to win the big one to have a real shot. Alex Cora and A.J. Hinch have accomplished a lot and were quickly forgiven for their roles in their teams’ sign-stealing scandals, so they have a chance too.

Mike: Is Logan Webb just boring good or what? I haven’t heard much about him, but he’s pacing the National League in fWAR, averaging over 6 innings per start, and has increased his k rate to over a batter per inning. Are we just spoiled with how consistent he has been over the past few years?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s that plus the Giants not really doing much of note since winning 107 games in 2021 — they haven’t finished above third in any season and have been .500ish in each. Ben Clemens did a nice deep dive on him recently if you’re in the mood to celebrate him https://blogs.fangraphs.com/world-wide-webb/

Matt VW: Just following up on your Yankees Stadium remark: which MLB ballpark has the best food?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t been to anywhere close to all of them but I’ve liked Petco (4-5 visits in the past half-decade) and Target (way back in its 2010 inaugural season) the most

Tom: % chance that Lindor retires as a consensus Top 5 SS of all-time?  He won’t be catching Honus or Cal, but he seems to be closing in fast on the Bankses, Jeters, and Younts.

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s got a very good shot at being a top-5 post-integration shortstop. Here’s the WAR leaderboard through age-31 seasons (his still has ~100 games to go):

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: Everybody else ahead of him but Trammell and Ripken moved off of shortstop in mid-career; A-Rod, Banks, and Yount were no longer shortstops even at age 31. So I like Lindor’s chances.

Jay Jaffe: By the way, the man is a damn joy to watch these days. He had another leadoff homer (6th of the year, I think) and a run-saving stop in the late innings last night. If Ohtani and Judge didn’t exist I might call him my favorite ballplayer to watch these days.

Bill: New York fans are admittedly spoiled with the SNY presentation and GKR booth.  I know you watch a good share of Mets games, but you probably watch plenty of other markets as well.  Is SNY the tops — and, whether yes/no — who else is up there?

Jay Jaffe: SNY might have the best booth though sometimes Keith Hernandez’s curmudgeonliness rubs me the wrong way. The Dodgers’ Joe Davis, the Tigers’ Jason Benetti, and the Cubs’ Boog Sciambi are my favorite play-by-play guys alongside Cohen but it’s tough for me to evaluate booth vs. booth because I don’t have large samples of their sidekicks (I like some of the Dodgers’ analysts much more than others, for example).

Smokin’ Jim Leyland: Before his injury in Spring Training, I was really high on Parker Meadows as a major breakout candidate after his strong second-half and postseason – he was really instrumental in the Tigers streak. Is it possible his return last night is the equivalent of adding another stellar regular via trade for Detroit?

Jay Jaffe: Meadows has performed and projected as a 3-4 win player, so stellar may be a bit of a stretch for a guy who was only recently a 45 FV prospect, but he’s going to help the Tigers, for sure.

Alec: Why does an RBI flyout count as a sacrifice fly, and an RBI bunt counts as a sacrifice bunt, but an RBI groundout remains an RBI groundout? The bunt I can understand, though it’s tough conceptually for me to think someone who hits a fly ball with a runner on third is intending to get out to drive the run in, or at least trying more than someone who hits a ground ball to the right side with a runner on third

Jay Jaffe: Good question. I think part of it is intent, hence the notion of sacrifice that gets attributed. Many big leaguers can certainly find a ball to put into the air with a runner on third when the situation demands it; the Dodgers’ Will Smith may be the best in the game at that. Groundballs are generally less optimal, and increase the chances of making multiple outs with one swing.

Pitching: On the perpetual question regarding SP and the Hall, which has a greater chance of opening the flood gates:  (1) a BBWA victory for someone like Felix, DeGrom, Wheeler, or even Sale (200 seems to be impossible, though he could end up with 75+ more than Jake); or (2) a Committee pick of a Johan, Cone, Orel, or Stieb?  Has to be (1), right?  At some point, the electorate will get bored drawing a line at Greinke that may never be surpassed.

Jay Jaffe: I’d put my money on Sale being the guy to change the conversation. One-and-done guys just don’t get enough — or in most cases any — shots via committee so I wouldn’t hold my breath on any of those guys even though I like them all as candidates, at least to a point.

Phillies: The team clearly needs help in the outfield. Do you think they’ll actually move any of the current starters, whether to a reserve role or trade/waivers?  Castellanos particularly has been blah his whole contract and they’ve made no indication of even reducing his playing time.

Jay Jaffe: I think they have to do something, if they intend to contend. Castellanos can’t continue to get by on his uncanny ability to homer while the rest of the world is going to hell in a handbasket, Kepler is never going to be more than a league-average hitter, and Marsh/Rojas just isn’t enough in center when those are your two corners. Something’s gotta give.

Bob Loblaw: Do the White Sox have something with Vargas? Dodgers are usually pretty good at developing talent, but looks like the Sox  have unlocked another gear.

Jay Jaffe: I think this is what the Dodgers envisioned, more or less — they just had different needs at the deadline last summer so they traded him to get someone they’ve REALLY liked for a long time (Edman) and someone they thought they could fix (Kopech). And flags fly forever so I don’t think they regret the trade.

Bosoxforlife: Do you foresee Rafael Devers ever returning to the field on a regular basis, and on the same vein, would he be the Red Sox 3rd baseman if Bregman opts out?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I think the path back to third base for Devers is a smoldering bridge right now. If Craig Breslow isn’t scared of picking up the phone to talk to Devers, he ought to be.

Jay Jaffe: I think Devers is a DH long term and would be surprised if we see him at 3B for more than emergency situations so long as he’s in Boston. Maybe post-trade (inevitable if not imminent) he tries first base somewhere else

Eli: In prior chats there’s been discussion of managers who may be hall-worthy – any current execs (other than Theo) who you think may be enshrinement worthy? Cashman drives me (and other “Crankee” fans) crazy but given his resume would you think he has a chance?

Jay Jaffe: Cashman, Friedman, and Dombrowski are all Hall-bound at some point. And I like Stearns’ chances given his current setup in Queens.

John: RE your QS and majority being under 2.00.  Do you have a link to that article?  I tried looking, but no luck.  Thank you

Jay Jaffe: This is the last time I wrote about QS as length https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/10/23/quality-start-john-lowe-statistics

Jay Jaffe: “Back to what we’ll call the 4.50 case — by which I mean exactly six innings and three earned runs. A few years ago, it inspired me to dig deep into the concept of quality starts. What its critics don’t realize is how rarely the 4.50 case occurs; from 1950-2010 (the span I used when I wrote my piece in 2011, given that RetroSheet data only went back so far), it accounted for 5.9 percent of quality starts and just 3.0 percent of all starts. In 2014, it accounted for 8.5 percent of quality starts and just 4.6 percent of all starts…”

Jay Jaffe: …”What’s more, there’s a massive gulf in collective performance between pitchers who put up quality starts versus those who don’t; generally, the former group has an ERA a bit below 2.00, the latter above 7.00. In 2014, the split was a 1.88 ERA for those pitching quality starts, 6.97 for the rest. That’s actually very similar to the performance of all pitchers in wins (1.82 this year) and losses (7.33).”

Jay Jaffe: we’re in a higher-scoring environment now and the rate of QS has gone down but I’d bet the trends hold reasonably well. Might be worth a follow-up piece, hmmm.

Rico Petrocelli: I’ve never actually heard of him. Got any details?

Jay Jaffe: Two-time All-Star, helped the Red Sox to the 1967 and ’75 World Series, huge 40-homer, 10.0 bWAR season in 1969 would have won MVP in some years but was unjustly ignored

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: If we had useful defensive value metrics back then, maybe things would have turned out better for him. As it was, a very popular guy in Boston.

drplantwrench: is Jo Adell back for reall??

Jay Jaffe: He’s always had huge power and sometimes it shows up in games, but he’s currently sporting a .283 OBP and a 99 wRC+, so I’m pretty resigned to the fact that this is who he is.

Jay Jaffe: Damn it was good to see Trout come back and homer though, huh?

Jay Jaffe: He hit that one to Portland

Jay Jaffe: whoa, look at the time! Thanks for stopping by, it’s been great. See you next week!