Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 7/1/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folk! Greetings from Wellfleet, where I’m on my annual family (semi) vacation

Jay Jaffe: This is my working week up here, which kicked off with my tribute to the late Dave Parker, who sadly passed away less than a month before his Hall of Fame induction https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-the-cobra-dave-parker-1951-202…

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think you have to be a strong proponent of Parker’s HOF case to feel the sadness that comes with the timing of his death. I’m glad he experienced the outpouring of joy, appreciation and love that came with the news of his election.

Jay Jaffe: I’m working on my annual midseason look at the best team defenses, and will have something on Clayton Kershaw’s run for 3,000 strikeouts later this week as well.

Jay Jaffe: Planning to take in a Cape Cod League game sometime after the 4th

Jay Jaffe: anyway, on with the show

Rick: Sad that Parker passed away before the HOF Ceremony, but glad he at least knew he was elected. I’ll always be bitter that Ron Santo didn’t get in while he was alive. I’m convinced it was intentional because I think he rubbed some people  the wrong way when he played. In reality though, he was just an enthusiastic player who loved the game.

Jay Jaffe: It certainly felt that way with regards to Santo, that the voters waited out his death, and I feel the same with regards to Dick Allen.

Dallas: There’s a lot of talk about Ke’Bryan Hayes, Mitch Keller, etc on the market. Which of the Pirates Non-Rentals do you believe is most likely to be traded and which one would likely bring the biggest return?

Jay Jaffe: Man, I dunno. Keller and Bailey Falter could help somebody’s rotation if the Pirates choose to deal them, but it’s not like there’s any return that’s going to make the Pirates do anything but push the goddamn rock up the hill and watch it roll down again, à la Sisyphus.

Hayes is comparatively cheap and a good defender, but he needs some serious overhaul to be even a league-average hitter at this point. Kiner-Falefa is a useful utilityman. David Bednar is back to not sucking. Someone will take a flier on Andrew Heaney. None of it will matter so long as Bob Nutting owns the team

>this person<: Jay, is Wheeler in the hof in 10 years?

Jay Jaffe: Been kicking this one around on BlueSky with a few people this morning. Last year Mike Petriello wrote favorably about his case in light of his having the best WAR of any pitcher over a seven-year span (https://www.mlb.com/news/zack-wheeler-building-strong-hall-of-fame-cas…), a concept that I’ve explored with regards to older pitchers without coming away terribly convinced even when it comes to more decorated hurlers (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-retiring-corey-kluber-and-the-rolling-…)

Jay Jaffe: Today Patrick Dubuque has a piece at Baseball Prospectus https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/99499/cold-takes-the-w…

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t fully read and digested that one yet but he’s always worth reading. IMO if Wheeler makes good on his stated plan to retire after his contract expires following the 2027 season, it’s going to be hard to make a case that will stand out to voters unless he’s banked either a Cy Young or a World Series ring. To me, the most likely HOF starting pitcher after Kershaw/Verlander/Scherzer/Greinke is Chris Sale, who I think is head and shoulders above Wheeler right now and just a year older

Mookie Bats: Thanks for your recent article on Mookie Betts’s excellent SS defense. On the other side of the ledger, he’s running a 99 wRC+ and there’s not a huge difference between his .312 wOBA and his .332 xwOBA. Do we chalk this up to all that weight he lost during his March stomach illness?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think his illness and the weight loss can be discounted when it comes to his offense. Maybe the extra work he’s putting in at shortstop is costing him some time to iron out his offensive woes, but given the shape of the Dodgers’ roster right now, it’s been a worthwhile tradeoff thanks to his defense

Guest: Hi Jay – thoughts on Nick Gonzalez? Could be a Gleyber Torres-esque player?

Jay Jaffe: he’s a decent player but we’re talking about a 26-year-old with 617 PA, 12 homers and a 92 wRC+. Gleyber Torres had 123 homers and a 115 wRC+ though his age-26 season — and he’s still just 28. They are not on the same career path.

drplantwrench: is this finally the year that jo adell is for real? as mayor of jo island, i really need this to be the year

Jay Jaffe: I’m impressed by the strides he’s made, wrote about him a couple weeks back https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jo-adell-remains-a-work-in-progress-but-he…. I don’t think he’ll ever live up to the top prospect billing, but I do think he can sustain being an above-average regular

Billy Baroo: On a scale of mal- to mis-feance, where does Preller’s refusal to upgrade LF rank, when “upgrade” is “any mediocre outfielder”?

Jay Jaffe: Right now the Padres look likely to land on the Replacement Level Killers list for their left field situation, and I see they’ve lately been using Gavin Sheets out there even against lefties, which is suboptimal. I imagine they probably find him a platoon partner who can help defensively. Doesn’t seem like an unsolvable problem.

glt4dc: who is the best free agent pitcher signing ever – 2019 signing of Wheeler by the Phillies, 2015 signing of Scherzer by the Nats, someone else?

Jay Jaffe: I think Scherzer, Mike Mussina’s Yankees deal, and Randy Johnson’s Diamondbacks deal  stand out the most for me

Sodo Mojo: Not a Twins fan but I find Buxton’s career really interesting.  He’s not going to be a hall candidate but his WAR per 600 ABs buts him in that territory with injuries really derailing him over and over again.  Can you think of a player who’s had a similar long term career with so many injury interruptions basically limiting their hall chances.

Jay Jaffe: The first guy who comes to mind is Eric Davis, but he wasn’t as good a defender as Buxton even when healthy. That said, he was a better hitter, and even a healthy Buxton probably has a steep uphill battle for the Hall unless that .248 AVG and .308 OBP end up improving

Hockey Masked Batter: Just looked up a photo of Dave Parker wearing that hockey goalie mask Tony Baritrome got him after he broke his jaw. Holy cow! How intimidating must that have been for his opponents!

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: As friend Dan Epstein wrote in his most recent edition of Jagged Time Lapse, Parker in the mask “made him look like a particularly fearsome cross between the Baseball Furies from The Warriors and Jason Voorhies from Friday the 13th, though of course his mask predated both of those films.”

Jay Jaffe: https://danepstein.substack.com/p/enter-the-dragon-exit-the-cobra

Jay Jaffe: Scary as hell. Another friend, Paul Lukas, wrote a lot about the mask in his Uni Watch column back in 2008 https://www.espn.com/espn/page2/story?page=lukas/080724

Death and the Hall: I know Parker was already in, but is there any correlation between recent death and a rise in vote share for players still on the writers ballot? Has it helped in committees?

Jay Jaffe: It does seem to have helped some players, as I wrote back in 2019 in the wake of the late Roy Halladay’s election https://blogs.fangraphs.com/roy-halladay-and-the-collision-of-baseball…

not the lunch guy: Do you think any those “if X overall mediocre player hits Y traditional HOF milestone, is he a HOFer?” will ever actually be tested? I’m talking Arraez 3000 hits, Schwarber 500 HR type stuff. You get questions about it so often but do you think anything of that sort is realistic, that a player with a sabermetrically non-HOF resume hits a milestone like that?

Jay Jaffe: I’m always skeptical because these guys tend to be too one-dimensional to withstand much further erosion in their games. Baseball doesn’t have a whole lot of room for designated hitters who slip below average, and time is gonna come for Schwarber and Arraez sooner or later

RasiedUp: How do you feel about Junior Caminero, do you think he has a skillset that will last?

Jay Jaffe: The metrics say he’s a pretty subpar third baseman, though Eric Longehagen, who graded him as a 60 FV prospect (future above-average regular to All-Star) despite concerns about contact and defense, forecast him to be an average defender eventually. He’s clearly got a bat that will keep him around even with his chase tendency.

Wander-ing in the Wilderness: Orgs can’t control their players’ behavior, but to what extent should the Rays catch flak for failing to mentor or at least keep an eye on 80-grade prospect, $182M man Wander Franco? It’d be one thing if he was 16 and getting in trouble right after being signed as a July 2 guy, but he’d been with the Rays for years, achieved stardom, and merited some off-the-field guidance, right?

Jay Jaffe: Broadly speaking, what Franco did isn’t unprecedented among players (see Felipe Vazquez) but it’s so tough to foresee, and it would be considered obtrusive if a team kept butting into a guy’s life off the field absent specific concerns in some area — especially if he’s in a foreign country. I think you have to instill it in all of your players — especially younger ones — that they need to be careful off the field but I’m not sure you can vet for something like that.

E. Sheehan: Is my control breakout real? Over 38 innings, across the majors and minors, I have 74K to 2BB

Jay Jaffe: I think you’re misreading something. We show him with 34 K and 2 BB in 17.1 minor league innings plus 6 K and 0 BB in 4 major league innings. It’s impressive, and he’s probably one of the Dodgers’ five best starters even if he’s not being treated as such due to workload concerns. But given his 30/40 command grades from Eric, I’m going to remain skeptical until he logs more major league innings.

Best Baseball Book(s): What’s the best baseball book (BBB) you’ve read recently? I’ve enjoyed Joe Posnanski’s The Baseball 100 and Why We Love Baseball. I listened to an audiobook version of Andy McCullough’s excellent The Last of His Kind: Clayton Kershaw and the Burden of Greatness. Aside from The Cooperstown Casebook, any thoughts about the BBB (or at least a great baseball book [GBB])?

Jay Jaffe: I have great respect for Posnanski’s work but I haven’t read either of those books, though I’ve thumbed through the 100 and read many of those essays online. Really liked Andy’s Kershaw book. A couple great ones I’ll tout based on recent developments are Dave Jordan’s book with Dave Parker, Cobra, which really captures the slugger’s voice and hard-won wisdom, and Howard Bryant’s exhaustive bio of Rickey Henderson. Both are must-reads. The past couple of summers when I was up here on Cape Cod, I really enjoyed reading Thomas Gilbert’s rollicking account of 19th century baseball, How Baseball Happened, and Edward Achorn bio of Old Hoss Radbourn, 59 in ’84.

Lord Thunder: Do the Mets make a move to upgrade at 3B?

Jay Jaffe: Between Baty, Vientos, and Maurcio, they have multiple internal options and something of a roster logjam, though not everything has gone well for those guys this year (Vientos in particular). I think CF is a bigger area of need.

Thomas M.: Regarding the Braves: Drake Baldwin looks like the real thing at C, and it’s a luxury to carry two All-star catchers. What should Alex be looking for in putting Murphy on the trade block, and given the dismal nature of the Braves this season, is it better to trade during the off season rather than the trade deadline? Also, should a new SS be the priority?

Jay Jaffe: I think they need to land a starter given the state of their staff, and I noted in our first subscriber mailbag (http://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-weekly-mailbag-june-7-2025/) that Murphy is probably their top trade candidate given Baldwin’s progress — but that was when they still had James McCann on the farm, and now they don’t, not that it should stop them from dealing.  It’s kind of six of one/half dozen of the other when it comes to trading guys — the high leverage of the moment can boost a return, but so can broadening the potential market to include non-contenders. As for Allen, he’s been elite defensively en route to 1.1 WAR, so I don’t think he’s an upgrade priority when they have some real sinkholes at 2B, LF, and CF

Dan: What’s been the bigger surprise? The Tigers being the best team in the AL or the Astros being the second best?

Jay Jaffe: Tigers. The Astros have been counted out many times (some of them even by me) but they always seem to find a way to be competitive. Not that I think they’ll maintain this spot.

WinTwins0410: Jay, what explains Andy Pettitte’s significant rise in his HoF BBWAA vote share this past year *and* Tommy John breaking out (a little) beyond the “fewer than X votes” Eras committee vote level this year?  Different electorates I know, but given your work on S-JAWS, are voters broadly having a greater appreciation for starting pitching career lengths and milestones that we may rarely if ever see again given changed usage patterns?  (Separate but related, what’s going on with Verlander this year?  Not the JV of old.)

Jay Jaffe: Pettitte benefitted from having Sabathia on the ballot — the two have broadly similar career numbers except for the strikeouts, though Sabathia more WAR and especially a higher peak. Tommy John is probably to some extent benefitting from the election of Jim Kaat, an inferior candidate (78th in S-JAWS for the former, 110th for the latter, plus the surgical procedure/comeback story). I do think voters respect the longevity of these guys in light of what we’re seeing, but their comparatively low peaks are still stumbling blocks for many (myself included).

drplantwrench: angels have over-performed a lot of expectations to reach .500 but have a brutal july schedule.  what do you think they end the month as?

Jay Jaffe: Sellers

Guest: What more does Cal Raleigh need to do to have what’s considered the best catcher batting line in a season?

Jay Jaffe: I think the gold standard is Piazza’s 1997 (.362/.431/.638, 183 wRC+, 40 homers in a higher-offense era but a terrible hitters’ park). Raleigh might pull it off given that he has an even higher wRC+ and is on pace to set a home run record, but I’m skeptical he won’t regress given his workload.

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: AL/NL catcher seasons since 1920 by wRC+ there. I’m surprised Johnny Bench’s 45-homer 1970 season isn’t there too

Sodo Mojo: With Corbin Carroll out do you think the Dbacks look to sell Naylor and Suarez earlier to maximize their return?

Jay Jaffe: I can see possibly trading both at some point even if they’re still plausibly in contention, but especially regarding Suarez, they need to see Lawlar hit major league pitching. Wrote about the situation a bit recently https://blogs.fangraphs.com/amid-a-deluge-of-injuries-the-diamondbacks…

not the lunch guy: Re: Rays monitoring Franco, I feel like the MLBPA and even the owners would pretty strongly want to avoid that. For the union it’s a plausible route towards team overreach in players’ personal lives, and for the owners it gives them possible legal culpability in any case that does arise

Jay Jaffe: exactly

Sam: If Raleigh and Judge both keep it up and Judge wins MVP, where would Raleigh’s season rank on the all time list of “best seasons to not be MVP”?

Jay Jaffe: Willie Mays averaged 9.5 bWAR from 1954–66 and took home just two MVP awards in those 11 seasons. Piazza didn’t win MVP in 1997. Mike Trout should have won more MVP awards. Plenty of great pitcher seasons probably deserved MVP consideration. Raleigh could wind up in esteemed company but we’ll need to see the specifics to know how he’ll fit into the group.

I don’t think the AL MVP race is over, either. Especially if he does sustain his remarkable production and Judge tails off.

Blake: Who do you think is the most “5 tool” player right now? I did a statcast search of xBA, Max Exit Velo, Sprint Speed, Arm Strength and OAA. Then saw who had the highest percentile in their worst attribute. This led me to Fernando Tatis. Also Cam Smith was surprisingly high.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know the answer but that’s a fun one to think about.

War2d2: re: baseball books: Kahn’s “The Boys of Summer” lives up to the hype.

Jay Jaffe: of course, but I was going for recent great books that I’ve read, not a starter list of the all-time greats.

War2d2: My vote will always be for the Scherzer deal being there best signing ever, not least because the Cubs wound up paying basically the same (after deferrals) for Lester that offseason, and 2016 aside he was basically a #4 starter being paid like an ace. The same meatheads that hate Ian Happ will talk about Lester like he was the second coming of Koufax.

Jay Jaffe: 2016 ain’t nothin’, flags fly forever… and that was a huge win for the Cubs

md: Jay, we see “future hall of famer” bandied around all the time – how long into a career do you traditionally personally have to wait and see before you start even saying someone is on a HOF trajectory?

Jay Jaffe: progress towards a 40-WAR 7-year peak is basically my yardstick. Has this guy started banking seasons worth 6 WAR or more? or at least 5 WAR? because if he doesn’t a handful of those, chances are it’s just cloud talk

Lord Thunder: Seems like there’s a lot of future HOFers currently active. I know there are a lot more teams than say when Mays, McCovey, Aaron, F. Robinson, etc. were active together, but does today’s crop outnumber that of, say 15 or 20 years ago?

Jay Jaffe: Those guys were 40-50 years ago not 15-20!

Jay Jaffe: based on historical data, you would expect something on the order of 1.5 HOFers per team per year once all the committee processes play out, but I think it would be tough to get to 30 right now, let alone 45, given the trends in starting pitcher usage that we’ve touched on above.

Roland the Farter: Volpe- what’s the deal? Staying up, sent down, trade?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see the Yankees making a move to replace him anytime soon. He’s in a slump and I understand he had some issues last night but he’s still an above-average and inexpensive young player, which is what the Yankees need.

The person who asks the lunch question: What’s for lunch?

Jay Jaffe: Good question. i think i’m going to either make a salami sandwich with a side of chips, or a fancied-up bowl of ramen noodles with some veggies and an egg.

And, looking at the clock, it’s about that time. Thanks so much for stopping by! I’m off next week, so no chat. We’ll resume this when I’m back in Brooklyn.