Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 8/27/21

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to another edition of my Friday chat!

Jay Jaffe: a bit of housekeeping while the queue fills up… today I’ve got a piece on Shohei Ohtani’s 45-degree, 110.7-mph homer from yesterday, and a dive into some other Statcast extremes https://t.co/HvBXV8OuR5

Jay Jaffe: Earlier this week, I wrote about the Yankees’ “Jumbo Package” outfield of Joey Gallo, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton http://blogs.fangraphs.com/jumbo-package-helps-power-the-yankees-into-…. I also paid tribute to the late Bill Freehan, an 11-time All-Star catcher who got particularly shabby treatment by Hall of Fame voters http://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-bill-freehan-the-thinking-mans-…

Mork Borg: Chris Sale had his 3rd immaculate inning last night (9 pitches – 3 Ks), something only Kofax had accomplished before. Which made me think, “Sale is such a great pitcher. What will he need to do to make the hall?”

Jay Jaffe: I think that if he gets to a major milestone (3,000 strikeouts or 200 wins) he has a decent chance, but from a JAWS standpoint, he either needs a couple more very big seasons or some serious longevity. From his B-Ref page:

Starting pitcher (124th)
46.1career WAR |39.57yr-peak WAR |42.8JAWS |5.7WAR/162
Average HOF P (out of 65):
73.3 career WAR | 50.0 7yr-peak WAR | 61.7 JAWS | 4.5 WAR/162

Jay Jaffe: a Cy Young would help, though it’s not essential (see Mike Mussina)

What are the odds…: Saw a Sale question early on, so scrapping that Q in favor of something else – lot of chatter about Sal Perez starting to build a HoF case similar to Molina. Should he maintain his current rate of production for 2-3 more years…does he have a case?

Jay Jaffe: not if anybody is paying a lick of attention to pitch framing. where he’s over 250 runs worse than Molina according to our metrics, which only go back to the start of the pitch-tracking era (2008), and which don’t figure to improve. By fWAR, he’s got just 14.0 to Molina’s 55.4. By bWAR, which doesn’t have a framing component, he’s down only 28.2 to 42.0, but I don’t think one can build any kind of WAR based argument for Molina that doesn’t account for pitch framing.

WinTwins0410: Jay, just a heads-up — FanGraphs keeps coding your chats in the year 2020, even though it’s 2021!

Jay Jaffe: OMG i just noticed this and it’s all user error (me). Cutting and pasting dates to get the format correct. I’ll go back and fix the old ones, but yikes, that’s a bit embarrassing

Guest: I have a long running debate with a friend and need someone to settle it: what are the odds that todd helton makes the hall of fame?

Jay Jaffe: Quite good given that he received 44.9% in 2021, his third year on the ballot. Just about everybody who gets to at least 42% eventually gets in, with Gil Hodges and the PED-linked Bonds and Clemens the obvious exceptions.

Steven: In the off season many thought the Cardinals stole Arenado from the Rockies. Yet over at Baseball Trade Values they were unsurprised by the trade, stating that the Rox gave Arenado away because they were afraid he would opt-in to his underwater contract (i.e. not opt-out). This year Arenado has performed well, but not MVP well. Do you expect him to opt-in?

Jay Jaffe: I think the labor uncertainty might make him think twice about opting out after this season, which as you note has been good-not-great (3.2 or 3.3 WAR depending on flavor) but it’s worth noting that in the trade he gained the right to opt out after 2022 as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if he stays put.

namiki: Will Tatis Jr.’s conversion from SS to OF be successful?

Jay Jaffe: From what I saw it seems like he’s generally taken to the position well, which doesn’t shock me given his athleticism. I don’t think either he or the Padres regard this as a permanent move yet, but I think that if they go that route, they’ll be fine.

Mork Borg: If you could retroactively grant better health to any one player during their playing career, who would it be?

Jay Jaffe: the answer I usually give is Eric Davis, because that incredible power-speed combo was a thing to behold. Sandy Koufax is another one I’d think hard about, though.

Jay Jaffe: if nothing else, the fact that Koufax was born in 1935 would have given me an outside shot at catching the very tail end of  his career if he’d pitched into his 40s.

Padres, Man: Is the Padres collapse blowing Tatis’s shot at winning his first MVP this year? Should he win in spite of it? He is only one man after all, and the man isn’t Ohtani/won’t be pinch-starting for the team. (If not Tatis, who might you vote for, if you had a vote?)

Jay Jaffe: I think Tatis is still the favorite so long as he’s healthy enough to play AND snaps out of his recent funk (.195/.283/.561 in 41 PA since returning), regardless of what the Padres do. Max Muncy is probably the guy to beat if Tatis goes down for the count in one way or another, though there are a bunch of other guys who could rise to the fore depending upon how hot they get down the stretch — Trea Turner, Brandon Crawford, and Bryce Harper come to mind (didn’t we just do this last week?

WinTwins0410: Jay, I think I have this correct: If Jim Kaat were to one day get in the Hall of Fame as a broadcaster (but hadn’t yet gotten in as a player), would that mean he’d no longer be considered for induction as a player? I think that’s the rule, but can you confirm?  (And beyond that, how likely do you think it is that he’d get in as a broadcaster?)

Jay Jaffe: A writer or broadcaster doesn’t “get in” to the Hall of Fame in the same way a player does; it’s a lifetime achievement award (Frick for broadcasters) and it wouldn’t preclude his election to the Hall as a player.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know that he’s got a tremendously strong shot at a Frick Award, but I also have very little experience in evaluating such prospects.

Dan in Toronto: Hi Jay, Any advice for a heartbroken Blue Jays fan of a team destined to fall a few games short? Can you ask Rob Manfred if the Blue Jays can move to the AL Central?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say to be patient because that core is going to get a few more chances to compete before the hard choices have to be made.

Jay Jaffe: Semien and Ray are free agents after this season, but Berrios has another year of control, Teoscar two, and Vladito, Bichette, and a lot of others are under club control through at least 2024 or ’25

A’s: Anyone notice that the A’s are just…. quietly slip sliding back here?

Jay Jaffe: A 3-10 skid wil do that, and it’s come against a particularly tough schedule — 13 games against the White Sox, Giants, Mariners, and Yankees. The schedule softens up a bit after the series with the Yankees, but it’s still middle of the pack, not easy street.

Just wondering…: Why do we generally talk about Ichiro’s pro success in Japan and overall baseball career, but not consider Jose Abreu as a slam dunk HOF’er given his full body of work in Cuba and the US?  And what would the Internet do today with Abreu as a prospect given what he did in Cuba in 2010-2011 as a 23 year old (.453 / .597 / .986 triple slash – 1.583 OPS over 293 PA)?

Jay Jaffe: Ichiro’s first 10 years in MLB featured 10 All-Star appearances, 10 Gold Gloves, and 10 200-hit seasons. Abreu can match him in terms of Rookie of the Year and MVP awards, but his major league accomplishments don’t measure up to the very high bar of Ichiro.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve never really known what to make of Cuban League stats but those are some insane numbers.

Jay Jaffe: As for the Hall of Fame, it’s the National Baseball Hall of Fame. What a guy did in Japan or Cuba is part of his back story, not what’s being weighed by voters.

Syndergaardengnomes: Why did every single Met other than Alonso forget how to hit this year?

Jay Jaffe: I realize this statement is hyperbole but injuries are a major factor in that they’ve interrupted more representative seasons by Nimmo and Davis, plus Lindor when he was improving, That mainly leaves McNeil, Smith, Conforto, and McCann, and I think everybody could have seen the last of those coming. I was working on a McNeil thing this week but put it on the back burner; maybe that gets at some of what’s gone wrong for him. For Smith, I think, the problem might be overexposure; his big 2019-20 showings both came in less than 200 PA; the odd thing is that he’s a lefty who has hit lefties but not righties this year.

Mi Nombre: Hader & Williams are 1st & 2nd in rWAR, WPA, K% among all relievers since 2020. Best bullpen duo since Lidge/Wagner in Houston, Mariano/Wetteland, the Nasty Boys?

Jay Jaffe: I’d have to think about that one longer; the reality is that relief duos don’t tend to last very long; Wetteland/Rivera was really just one season, though Rivera/Robertson had some longevity to it. But yeah, I think Hader and Williams are probably the best in the game right now.

David: Would the Hall of Fame ever consider downgrading (in some way) the status of players who were inducted decades below and clearly don’t belong? Or do plaques hang forever?

Jay Jaffe: plaques hang forever

Laffy Jaffe Taffy: Jay Jaffe throws a few pitches at the speed pitch game at the ballpark. What does he top out at?

Jay Jaffe: I’d be lucky if I hit 60 mph given the conditions of my back and shoulder. I’m old enough to be smart enough not to try it just for the sake of ego or vanity.

Mike: Heads up on a page error: Rhys Hoskins minor league stats are all populating on Vinnie Pasquantino’s page. Might want to fix that

Jay Jaffe: will pass this along

Cortes: I know the current thing is gonna end, but this Nelson Cortes, I think he could turn himself into a reliable 2 WAR guy, which has a ton of value. He’s only 26. And he’s so fun.

Jay Jaffe: I’m planning to write about him soon

Seamball: What’s your best guess as to what the Dodgers do with the Turner-Seager-Lux (mostly the former two) logjam at short? Is Seager going to be available, and if so, what does his injury record do to his value?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s really tough to know how this is going to unfold especially because the Dodgers have to deal with their pitching free agents (Kershaw, Scherzer, and whatever is going on with Bauer) as well. Seager’s injuries do put a dent in his market value but the hand fracture was a fluke (broken bones happen but they’re not predictive of future broken bones). I’d wager the damage to his value is less than what Trevor Story’s mediocre season is doing to his value.

lastplaceteam: in terms of better health, how close are we to wanting to with that for Trout? yes, he’s already had his HoF career, but I feel like we’re losing so much the last few years

Jay Jaffe: it sucks what has happened this year, and we’ve lost some chunks of seasons, but I don’t think things have gotten to the dire state that some others (there’s at least one other doom-and-gloom-flavored Trout question on this topic in the queue) do.

As Mike Petriello said on Twitter recently, it might be that Trout’s time in center field is coming to an end. That could save him some wear and tear

Guest: Davis/Holland or Davis/Herrera have to be somewhere in the answer to Mi Nombre’s question, no? Davis alone had an ERA of 1 or lower in 2014-2015, and whichever of the other KC relievers you pair him with were not much worse.

Jay Jaffe: Yes i’d have to think about the 2014-15 Royals in that discussion, among others.

Jay Jaffe: Kent Tekulve, Enrique Romo and Grant Jackson on the 1979 Pirates!

Mike Ortman: Let’s go off topic….given your music tastes, what are your thoughts on Broadcast?

Jay Jaffe: I respected them in their day but have come to appreciate them more in retrospect, and wish I’d paid more attention at the time. I still know the first half of their catalog a lot better than the second half, with The Noise Made by People the one I return to most.

Greg: Do you think the Mariners or Tigers will make the playoffs again first?

Jay Jaffe: At the risk of jinxing them and watching so many people I care about endure prolonged agony, i think the Mariners are a lot closer

Reds Story: What kind of ceiling does Jonathan India have as a player, and would the Reds be wise to lock him up for the next 10 years ASAP? He’s been the answer to the leadoff question they’ve been failing to solve since the days Shin-Soo Choo. Obv very early for him to consider it, but the Reds have to at least be thinking about it, right?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a better question for Eric or Kevin than me, but he does seem to be better than the 45 FV guy that he was forecast as. That said, his defensive metrics are unflattering (-6 OAA, -3 DRS), and when that happens, second basemen become outfielders, and if they don’t have power or the ability to play center, it’s tough for their bats to carry the position. I’m not so sure anybody’s thinking of 10 years for him right now, as good as his rookie season has been.

Jay Jaffe: (mind you, i’m not saying India doesn’t have the power, but his xSLG is just .423, which suggests that his ballpark may be doing some of the work for him).

Guest: Corbin Burnes is still leading the National League in both K rate and walk rate (no one has led his league in both since Walter Johnson in 1913 in the A.L.).  Yet I saw yesterday that a national poll of sportswriters has Burnes a distant 3rd in Cy young consideration, trailing Buehler and Wheeler by a big chunk.  Is this an indication that a vast majority of sportswriters think FIP is junk?  (Burnes has second-lowest FIP of the past 70 years.)

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think it’s a dismissal of FIP, but there are a few obvious things working against Burnes from a CY standpoint: he’s about 35-45 innings behind Wheeler and Buehler, plays in a much smaller market, and has a single-digit win total.

Jay Jaffe: not all of those play to the same audiences, but they do help to explain how he can slip through the cracks

Guest: If the AL WC game is Yankees-Red Sox, whom do you like in a Cole vs. Sale matchup?

Jay Jaffe: probably tilt towards Cole because he can go deeper into the game and is backed up by a better bullpen.

Guest: Nathan Eovaldi leads all AL pitchers in WAR.  Will he get even a single first place Cy Young vote, though?

Jay Jaffe: seems less likely so long as he’s also sporting a 3.72 ERA (though he’s a respectable 5th in bWAR too). The AL race seems more wide open to me than the NL one

Guest: Fun facts: Yordan Alvarez has a higher career wRC+ than Juan Soto, and is averaging exactly the same WAR/600 as Soto at 5.0.  (Alvarez is a bit more than one year older, for whatever that’s worth.)  Is Yordan Alvarez the one significant mistake the Dodgers have made since A.F. arrived?

Jay Jaffe: He’s a mistake (Josh Fields??), though I’m not sure how much playing time he would have gotten as a Dodger without the DH in 2019 and this year.

Friedman’s mistake in trading him pales in comparison to his signing of Trevor Bauer, which stands to cost the Dodgers a lot more than money. An all-time clinker that seriously damages my view of him as an executive.

jj: Remember when Chris Carpenter ‘only’ had 192 IP which likely hurt him in CY voting in 2009, more wins, better ERA, WHIP but 33IP less than Lincecum…

Jay Jaffe: The Cy Young voting has changed a bit since then, no? Advanced metrics are a bigger part of the conversation now —  which in the long run could help Burnes. I’m not sure there’s a ton we should read into an at-large poll taken 6 weeks before ballots are due.

Guest: The Astros by BaseRuns have been the best team in the AL.  Do you like them as WS series favorites in the American League?

Jay Jaffe: I think that right now they’re the AL favorites, but I’m a bit concerned about how well their rotation will hold up. Then again, i can probably find reasons to be concerned about most contenders’ rotations, worrywart that I am

Skyler: What statistics would you recommend using to evaluate a starting pitcher? Currently using FIP xFIP SIERA and ERA

Jay Jaffe: K%, K-BB%, and xERA are worth adding to the mix; I don’t use SIERA or xFIP much myself but there’s more than one way to skin a cat.

Nick: Joey Votto said the other day that the current MIL starting rotation is the best group of starters he has ever faced in his career (comparing favorably to, for example, the Phillies’ staff of Halladay, Lee, Oswalt, and Hamels).  But are the Brewers’ pitchers even the best staff currently in the majors?  I’d take Scherzer, Kershaw, Buehler, and Urias, personally.

Jay Jaffe: Well, I’m not sure you can include Kershaw in that group right now given that he hasn’t started since July 3 and is at least a few weeks away from doing so again. If everybody’s healthy, they might have the upper hand. As for Votto’s response, it’s worth considering that he’s seen the Milwaukee rotation a lot more as an NL Central rival, so I can see why he’d feel that way.

Nameless Joe: Genuine question regarding your view of AF being damaged by the Bauer signing: What was the extent of the dodgers FO’s knowledge of all the despicable stuff he was up to?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have an answer to that but that doesn’t mean the Dodgers shouldn’t have done better due diligence. His misogyny was well-documented via his online behavior but beyond that, if a reporter can find out about the sealed court records in Ohio, so can a sleuth working on behalf of a team.

Nick: Victor Robles was a solid contributor and ROY candidate in 2019; 2021 and 2021, in contrast, have been very disappointing.  Is he an MLB regular going forward?

Jay Jaffe: I’m skeptical, but maybe he just needs a change of scenery. Not really sure what happened given the collection of tools he had.

scullys sweet sound: how sustainable long term are the giants’ gains/high performance this year? getting career years from guys aged ~32-36 just doesn’t scream long-term success, though their farm is on the rise… dodgers hegemony more at risk via giants or padres?

Jay Jaffe: I agree that the success of the Giants’ geezers doesn’t seem sustainable in the long term, and it may lead to a mistake here or there if they overinvest in those guys (two years at a time, like they did for Crawford, seems fine). Their system is suddenly very good (6th on THE BOARD, 5th via Baseball America’s midseason rankings) and they seem to have money to spend. Can they find or produce foundational players to build around like Tatis and Machado? I don’t know what the answer is here but I think it’s going to be fascinating to see how it plays out.

Jay Jaffe: With that, I’m done for the week here. Thanks so much for stopping by! Probably won’t have a Friday chat headed into the long weekend, but hope to have one the week after that, once I’m back from Cooperstown. Until then, stay safe!