Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 9/2/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! I hope you all enjoyed your three-day weekends. I had a lovely one here, one that included a surprise solo parenting job as I took my daughter and her friend to see the Brooklyn Cyclones on Sunday; my wife planned to go instead of the friend, but came down with a migraine (ugh). Fortunately, it all went well, everybody had fun and I came home with the same number of kids I brought.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a thing on Walker Buehler joining the Phillies that’s about to go live. Did some injury roundups as they pertain to contenders late last week. Here’s the NL one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/watch-those-fingers-a-roundup-of-recent-in…

Jay Jaffe: And here’s the AL one: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-roundup-of-recent-injuries-among-the-al-…

Jay Jaffe: pour one out for Corey Seager, yeesh.

Jay Jaffe: Ok, on with the show…

Thank you!: Would you try to extend any yanks?

Jay Jaffe: In terms of those with some urgency, I think it’s worth broaching the subject with the representatives of Luke Weaver and Trent Grisham (pending free agents) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (about to head into his final arbitration year). Maybe Clarke Schmidt as well; he’s a Super Two with two years of arb eligibility left, one of which will be taken up by recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Dan: My brother has long held a theory that Giancarlo Stanton would hit better if he played the field because it would keep his lower half loose. Is this last month evidence that he’s right?

Jay Jaffe: It’s an interesting theory, at least.

Oaktown Blues: How do yoy feel about the A’s playoff chances in 2026? The position player core feels ready, and they’ve found some promising pitchers (Lopez, Morales, Perkins), but will it be enough?

Jay Jaffe: They’re heading for 74-75 wins in a division that has three teams playing above .500 this year. I think there’s some promise there, for sure, but I don’t yet see enough pitching, and given the conditions in Sacramento, I think they’ll again have problems attracting free agents who aren’t of the bounceback-hoping variety (i.e., like Severino).

Matt VW: With the recent and apparently abiding emphasis in launch angle, is Jim Rice’s single season GIDP record sneaky unassailable?

Jay Jaffe: On the contrary, Junior Caminero has 28 GIDP as we enter September, just eight off of Rice’s record of 36. Michael Baumann wrote about Junior back in July https://blogs.fangraphs.com/if-junior-caminero-had-any-more-gdps-hed-b…

Chava Frumkin: If Blake Snell wins another CYA, is he automatically in the HoF? His WAR seems very low…

Jay Jaffe: I think a third Cy would give Snell a leg up on the competition but so much is going to depend upon how BBWAA voters reckon with the lighter workloads of starters from this era. I have a hard time believing the (we) are going to prioritize recognizing Snell’s intermittent greatness (the process of which has its aesthetic drawbacks, to say the least) than the Cy-less consistency of Zack Wheeler.

Jay Jaffe: I’d put Wheeler, Chris Sale, Gerrit Cole, and Jacob deGrom ahead of Snell for this era, which isn’t to say yet that I’d vote for all of them.

Chava Frumkin: The same number of kids, but not the same kids?

Jay Jaffe: Believe me, I checked.

Jay Jaffe: They were the originals.

Jay Jaffe: Here’s my Buehler piece: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/can-anyone-fix-walker-buehler-anyone/

12 to 6: buehler in philly vs. la basically because la couldn’t guarantee starts, right?

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t directly address that in the piece above but I suspect that may have been a factor. The Dodgers rotation has been pretty good lately, and with the exception of Emmet Sheehan subbing for the rehabbing Roki Sasaki, the production is coming from the guys you’d expect. The Phillies, given the loss of Wheeler and the pending innings cap (and AAA struggles) of Andrew Painter had need for a sixth starter and boom, there was one available. It’s entirely possible Buehler liked the idea of a fresh start with a different organization instead of going back to LA and revisiting some frustrations (though obviously it ended up well for him).

Phil: Sorta scratching my head at the Andrew Heaney signing. Even in a bullpen role, not sure how he’s any better than what’s currently on their 40-man roster.

Jay Jaffe: On the other hand… (I actually missed this news). Heaney has spent his entire career being as enigmatic (and sometimes as ineffective) as recent-vintage Buehler, but he did pitch very well in LA in 2022, with a 3.10 ERA and 3.75 FIP. So maybe they see things they can revisit to get him back on track.

Sam: What do the Phillies do with their outfield in the off season and next year? Bader is better than everyone else out there now, but the outfield is still bad for a contender, and they made the Fangraphs naughty list for all 3 OF positions this year. Do they actually do something to address the problem or will the same below average platoons continue next year?

Jay Jaffe: They’ll have to do something, and they won’t run it back with this exact cast, as Kepler is a pending free agent, Bader has a mutual option. Kyle Tucker, Cody Bellinger,  and Trent Grisham are among the potential free agents out there; my hunch is that they make a run at one, and they also have to figure out what to do regarding Kyle Schwarber’s free agency and the walking sunk cost that is Nick Castellanos.

Ha-Seong Kim: Thoughts on me getting picked up by the Braves?

Jay Jaffe: A curious move — I didn’t expect him to change teams at this juncture — but the Braves have gotten just a 52 wRC+ from Nick Allen at shortstop so why not try something different?

Stu: Hi, Jay. Do you think the Mets can put the pieces together and make a deep postseason run?

Jay Jaffe: Sure. I’m not saying it’s the most likely outcome, but our Playoff Odds give them a 6.6% chance of winning the World Series, the majors’ eighth-best odds. The debuts of Nolan McLean and Jonah Tong have injected some new life into that rotation, for one thing.

Lowe Distribution System: Atlanta took on significant payroll this year, for the privilege of paying Kim $16M next year.  That suggests they see the Kim contract as a good deal.  If it’s a good deal, then why didn’t the Rays deal him for something?  Basically, I think either TB or ATL has to be wrong in their evaluation, so which is it?

Jay Jaffe: It doesn’t have to be either/or. Kim’s recovery from shoulder surgery and then his lower back strain limited him to 10 games before the trade deadline; he was on the IL at the time which would have undercut the Rays’ attempt to get value for him. Past the deadline, they could only get players outside the 40-man roster, so they decided they’d rather have the money.

Michael Jones: What do you think of the Braves move claiming Kim?  Do you think he exercises his player option?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s going to be tough to get $16M next year given how little he’s played this year, and he’s got a clear path to a starting job if he’s healthy, and on a team that has generally been a contender lately.

TokTok Woodman: What playoff races are you most interested in (if any)?  Are teams fighting to win a bye all that interesting?  Does seeding even matter?  The AL East seems like it could become very tight at the top, so that could be fun, as could maybe the Western divisions?

Jay Jaffe: We’ve got three divisions where the leader has a cushion of three games or less: the AL East (a three-team race) and the two Wests. There’s definitely a lot to play for there, including the bye. Is it as fun as it would be with one fewer playoff team and the potential for tiebreaker games à la Team Entropy? No, but it’s not nothing.

Dogs: When are the dog days of summer? Half the MLB season is summer, but half the season can’t be for the dogs can it?

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t know this until recently but the dog days actually refers to a specific stretch from early July to mid-August, ending with the appearance of Sirius (“the Dog Star”) in the night sky.

Perry: Carlos Correa made a run at the GDP record a few years ago. Wish he had gotten there in retrospect (not bitter).

Jay Jaffe: Correa had 30 in 2023. The closest anybody besides Rice (who also had a season with 35 GID) has gotten is 32, last by Billy Butler in 2010.

Wrights_Back: Does WAR capture volatility and if so, how would one incorporate it into analysis?  EG, I believe WAR used in conversations is the mean WAR of the player.   But is it normally or evenly distributed?     

I would think (guess)   a 6WAR player has ‘negative convexity’ – eg, his chances of being 3 WAR must be greater than his chances of being 9WAR.  

A mismash of a question composed on the fly.  But something I’ve been thinking about.

Jay Jaffe: Back near the end of my tenure at Baseball Prospectus, Colin Wyers wrote about the error bars attached to defense. I’m paraphrasing here but the less playing time (and chances) at a position the wider the error bars. The problem is that if you tell somebody that Aaron Judge’s WAR is 7.2 ± 0.8 but that Bobby Witt Jr’s is 6.8 ± 0.4, the general public is going to get confused and complain about this nerd stuff.

Jay Jaffe: So we settle on a single figure, and acknowledge that differences in WAR that are less than 1 win are not particularly meaningful given our uncertainty, particularly about defense.

Transmission: The Ortiz and Clase disciplinary leave suspensions originally ran through August 31st. Now that we’re back from Labor Day weekend do you expect we will hear anything from MLB? Or are they going to just wait us out and release their findings in the middle of the night sometime in December?

Jay Jaffe: at this point I expect the leave will run through the remainder of the season. For all we know, the case could be even bigger than just these two players and othes will be implicated. We’ve seen from the league’s handling of domestic violence cases that it’s in not always in a rush to hand down a punishment; keeping a player out of action (while getting paid) on admin leave at least prevents the on-field results from being further affected by these players’ presence.

War2D2: Hi Jay! Cade Horton has been pitching out of his shoes for two solid months. Going by Eric’s grades, it’s entirely possibly we’ve already seen the best two months of his career. If you had a RoY vote where would you rank him? How much more would he have to do to get your top spot?

Jay Jaffe: I haven’t thought much at all about the Rookie of the Year races but I’d think Horton would be the top NL pitcher under consideration, with position players like Isaac Collins, Caleb Durbin, and Drake Baldwin all in the discussion as well.

Sleve McDichael: Is Nick Kurtz basically Yordan Alvarez? Does going .300/.400/.600 over your first 400 MLB appearances nearly ensure that you’re an MVP contender from here on out?

Jay Jaffe: Good question. Kurtz does have the second-highest OPS+ of any 22-year-old with at least 350 PA:

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: However, many of the players on that list reached the majors before their age-22 seasons, an indication of higher ceilings. Alvarez did debut in his age-22, so you may not be totally off base but I’d caution that Kurtz is doing what he’s doing by playing half his games in a minor league ballpark, so I’m not going to pencil him in an Alvarez-like dominance just yet.

Guest: Do the Yankees trade one of Dominguez/Jones for a front line SP

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think either of them is going to be the headliner in a  package for a frontline SP. With Fried, Rodon, and eventually Cole next year, I don’t think a run at another frontliner is likely in Hal Steinbrenner’s universe, either. I expect them to do more to bolster the 3-4-5 while addressing some lineup holes.

sb4321: Julio Rodriguez has 20 career fWAR and he’s only 24 years old. He hasn’t had an MVP level season yet either. Assuming he is consistently a 4-5 win player for the majority of his career and he plays around 10-15 more years in the majors, could he have an argument for being a Hall of Famer?

Jay Jaffe: “Assuming he is consistently a 4-5 win player for the majority of his career and he plays around 10-15 more years in the majors” puts just about anybody in a Hall of Fame conversation. But yes, Julio is off to a good start, and he gets a mention in my upcoming Hall of Fame progress report.

Dan the Mets Fan: Mets playoff rotation should be Megill/Peterson/McLean/Tong right?

Jay Jaffe: Even without checking where the two rookies stand as far as their workloads and histories, that’s probably more than the Mets are going to ask of them. I suspect that they’re much more likely to include Senga after giving him a bit of rest and hoping to get him right.

Hans Bhimji-Walker: Hi Jay, Do you think Corbin Caroll has MVP potential? The power seems to be real

Jay Jaffe: I don’t see him winning this year but he’s very clearly one of the best players in the NL and I’d expect his name to come up in MVP discussions at some point.

Key Flaw: With expansion talk abuzz, what would it take to get one or two teams in the NY area? Historically, obviously, there were three, and to help with financial parity having more is good. MLB stepped in and forced Baltimore to allow DC to have a team in their area (and then screwed them on the deal later), so they CAN do something. But what would it take to add the Brooklyn Robins and North Jersey Meadowlands? (possibly in addition to a few other expansion teams)

Jay Jaffe: Of all the things that aren’t happening, a third MLB team in the NY area is high on the list unless MLB’s century-old antitrust exemption vanishes overnight. The Yankees and Mets have territorial rights that would preclude this and, uh, more juice than the Orioles did when it comes to the commissioner and the league pushing them around.

dfbgfbrg: cal for MVP?

Jay Jaffe: I made the case last week… and then Judge had a big week. If I had a vote I’d be waiting until the final days of the season to decide. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cal-raleigh-has-set-a-record-and-leveled-t…

Pinstriped Problems: Jasson Dominguez hasn’t actually been that good this year. Is this just proof he is more average player than star?

Jay Jaffe: Assuming that a 22-year-old player’s current performance is his ceiling is a mistake, particularly in an age when player career paths are more malleable than ever. Dominguez — who let’s not forget played just 58 minor league games and 18 major league games last year after recovering from Tommy John surgery — has been a league-average-ish hitter (101 wRC+) but has had some issues with strikeouts and defense. Both are areas he needs to address but it’s not at all unfathomable that he improves.

Johnny5Alive: How much has Soto’s july-august posted him into an MVP discussion? He’s doing things not done since bonds in terms of power -speed (what?) – and getting on base.

Jay Jaffe: Not much. He’s hit on par with last year since the start of June but the slow start and crummy defense suppress his WAR; he’s eighth in our rankings and I don’t expect him to leapfrog the field unless he hits .500 and helps the Mets snatch the NL East away in September.

Nate: what Waldreps been doing is amazing. Do you think he’s shown enough to be a solidly above average starter for the next few years?

Jay Jaffe: He’s been remarkable so far. We’ve got a Waldreps piece on the docket for tomorrow that will probably do much more to answer your question than I could on the fly.

2131, 1312: Is Isaac Paredes still getting traded this offseason, or do the Astros try to juggle Altuve wherever and move Carlos Correa around the infield until Paredes’s contract is up? I just remember how this spring everybody was raving about how good of a fit he is for Daiken park

Jay Jaffe: A trade wouldn’t surprise me but I do wonder if the Astros would try Paredes or Correa at second with the other one at third, and give Altuve another year to try to hold down left field.

Johnny5Alive: What’s the worst player that could get in if they hit a milestone? I’m thinking about Alonso and while a lot can happen between now and then and he got a late start. But he’ll be 31 going into next season. He’s a bat only guy who crushes homers. So maybe he doesn’t have a long tail, but he’s averages 40 per season to this point, if he averages 30 per season for another 7, he’s basically right there. But all the other metrics would be bad. Any shot in this type of case?

Jay Jaffe: Harold Baines and his phantom 3,000th hit have already answered your question, I think. Much as I enjoy Pete Alonso, the problem is that sooner or later on the road to 500 homers a lack of secondary skills will catch up to him so this is a hypothetical I’m not going to spend too much time mulling.

Michael conforto: Why are the dodgers still playing him?

Jay Jaffe: I suspect that when they get Edman and Kim back, they’re going to do some experimenting in the outfield and it could very well cut into Conforto’s time.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, i’ve got a lot on my plate today so it’s time to call it. Thanks so much for stopping by! We’ll do this again soon.