Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 1/4/19

January 4, 2019

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know where Harper or Machado are going to sign

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know when Harper or Machado are going to sign

9:04	stever20: So with the news from Jim Bowden that the Nats have increased their offer to Bryce Harper- do you think they are now the favorites to sign him?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Let us first consider whether or not that report is accurate or credible

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: That being considered, I’m having trouble picking between the Nationals and the Dodgers. The Nationals would be the easy pick; the Dodgers would be the obvious other candidate

9:06	Bobby Cox: What should the Braves do about their RF hole at this point?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: I think someone like Derek Fisher would make for an interesting buy-low, but they could conceivably do that and reunite with Nick Markakis since I can’t imagine his market is all that strong

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: The Padres also have an outfielder or two to move, if you feel like trading a young hard-throwing pitcher

9:08	Look Dude: Do you think Kimbrel going back to Atlanta is inevitable?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Feeling increasingly inevitable he just returns to Boston

9:09	Jack: Could the Yankees have gotten Tulo to agree to join them without assuring him that either they’re not going to sign Machado, or that if they do, they’re going to trade Andujar?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Well, they could also move Andujar to first base, since he’s a dreadful defender at third

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: But — and I don’t mean to be so cold about this — Tulo is costing the Yankees the league minimum, and he’s a stopgap. The Yankees could’ve said whatever they wanted to convince him to sign up, but if something better comes along, Tulo’s presence isn’t much of a hurdle if they think he’s getting in the way

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Tulo has apparently wanted to play for the Yankees, and at present, the Yankees are missing a shortstop for three or four months. That’s why we are where we are

9:12

Sum: it sounds like the contracts for Harper and Machado will be in the region of 10 years, taking both players to their mid-30s. lots of teams rest players via the DH slot once they age a bit and become less valuable defensively (e.g., JDMartinez; and both Harper and Machado have not-insubstantial injury histories already). does the American League have a structural advantage – or does the NL have a structural disincentive – to sign premium FAs to super-long-term deals because of the flexibility offered by the ability to slot them in at DH? has this played out, or do we see NL teams ignoring/discounting this difference and just signing the Matt Hollidays into their 30s anyway? thanks!

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have time during this live chat to analyze the historical distribution of mega-deals, and those numbers would be biased somewhat anyway by NYY/BOS always being in the American League. That being said, I think there are three things to keep in mind:

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: 1) Executives often aren’t thinking too hard about such considerations that will only come into play so far down the line

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: 2) Still, it is a clear factor that would favor the AL by at least a little bit

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: 3) But at this point, the universal DH is all but an inevitability. Might even show up in the next CBA

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Put it all together and I don’t think this is the factor that will determine which league the players go to

9:17

Look Dude: Griffey was one of the greatest hitters ever. After around 10 years, he started heading downhill though – injuries, age. Pujols had a similar path, 10 dominant years and the magic started wearing off. Trout is going into his 9th season … 8th full I guess. When he becomes a free agent and signs that huge contract, do you think he’ll decline in the same way that Griffey and Pujols did?

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: I believe Griffey and Pujols have had steeper aging curves than usual for Hall-of-Fame players. Any number of things *could* happen to Trout, and it could all change on any given play, but, you know, Miguel Cabrera remained a dominant hitter through 33, and he’s still good when he’s healthy. If Trout keeps himself in premium shape, you’d think his decline would be graceful

9:20	Ross: Who wins the NL Central in 2019?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I think I slightly favor the Cardinals, but I also think the Brewers have more that they’re going to do this offseason

9:21	Josh: Of all the stats, which one is your favorite go-to stat?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: wRC+ for hitters, K-BB% for pitchers. If I only had one for each

9:23	Roger: If the White Sox miss out on Macharper do you think they backtrack on their previous statements and end up trading Jose Abreu? Feel like if the Sox traded Abreu to Tampa for Matt Duffy it would round out both teams’ rosters a lot better

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not out of the question, but I think the White Sox still like Abreu quite a bit. And I’m not certain the Rays would go for that for a contract-year player

9:24

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : The Astros have been particularly good at making already good pitchers even better. Lately we’ve heard that the Astros are interested in Seth Lugo, who has quietly been one of the better pitchers on the Mets the last three seasons. Any idea what it is about the way that Lugo pitches that the Astros are going to change to make him even better?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Well, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Nothing has happened yet, and Lugo is coming off a 79 FIP-. Maybe the Astros just want someone coming off a 79 FIP-

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Bear in mind that Lugo’s best pitch is his curve, and his curve usage already just shot up from 17% to 32%

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Astros would want him to throw even *more* curves. Maybe they’d want to see a few more high fastballs. Or maybe the Astros just like the idea of getting a ~120-inning pitcher who is willing to either start or relieve over multiple innings. That’s exactly what the Astros pitching staff could use more of

9:30	Tim: Which free agent are you most surprised hasn’t signed yet?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably either AJ Pollock or Marwin Gonzalez. Pollock rumors have died off of late, it feels like, and Gonzalez ought to have a strong market that’s mostly unrelated to the fate of the guys at the top

9:31	R: i got a rejection letter from the director of Padres R&D but it wasnt Dave? Did he get promoted? differnent role?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.mlb.com/padres/team/front-office

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Dave is listed as a Senior Analyst

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Sounds like you heard from Adam Esquer

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Recent hire from the Rays, as a matter of fact

9:32	Mandy is 92% Fresh: Best case scenario for the Royals this year?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: About 77 wins and third place

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Well I guess the best-case scenario might also involve the Twins falling flat on their faces again. So about 77 wins and second place?

9:33	Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Who comes in last this year in the NL Central?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Right now I think it’s still the Reds, but they’re creeping up on the Pirates. Pretty strong division being built

9:34	Eppler: Are the Angels done at this point? No touchdowns, not really any field goals, mostly a few first downs and then punts. Kinda depressing.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: At the moment the Angels are projected for an opening-day payroll that’s almost an exact match of where they were each of the previous three seasons

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: They already got La Stella to be their infield caddy behind Fletcher/Cozart

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Their rotation is full, what with Harvey and Cahill being added. I’d expect some bargain-basement outfield and bullpen additions

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Could use someone better than Hermosillo behind the starting three in the OF. And that bullpen is at least one arm short

9:38	John: If Jeter Downs is as good of a prospect as people have been making him out to be, why did the Reds trade him for three guys on expiring contracts in a year they probably won’t contend?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t think that was a great move for the Reds, especially since they still don’t have a center fielder. But Downs is far away and he’s a non-elite player. Puig and Wood both have 2019 surplus value. And Kyle Farmer isn’t nothing, as a guy with hardly any big-league service time

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Farmer’s been a pretty good hitter in Triple-A as a C/3B. Weird and appealing little skillset

9:43	Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Don’t most pitchers who bomb in the Bronx eventually straighten out in the Alleghenys? Why isn’t Sonny Gray on the Pirates already?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: The data point here seems to be…AJ Burnett?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Ivan Nova isn’t much better, considering the league and ballpark switch

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Anyway, the Pirates don’t not make sense, but they also have a mostly full rotation, and the Yankees want a real trade return. Gray makes the most sense for a team in better playoff position, like the Brewers

9:46	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Good morning Jeff. What is your favorite condiment?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: A quality hot sauce. The rest are almost all wastes of my time, except for mustard

9:47	Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : If the Phillies get off to a slow start, does Gabe Kapler get fired?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Almost a 0% chance of that happening this year

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies love Kapler. It’s some of the fans and writers who don’t

9:48	bb: Jeff, what do you hope to accomplish this year, either personally or professionally?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I hope to have a good first eight months of marriage, and I hope that my writing in December is better than my writing in January

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I guess I should specify December 2019 and January 2019

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Not December 2019 and January 2020

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: That would be the opposite of what I hope

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Although it’ll happen eventually! We all get worse and die

9:52	Frank: Would you rather have Urias/Tatis or Altuve/Correa for the next 6 years?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Altuve/Correa. Altuve’s almost in his 30s, but Correa’s nowhere close, and they’re already proven stars. Urias and Tatis haven’t proven anything and most great prospects turn into something less than great players

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: This is, of course, ignoring contracts

9:53	v2micca: If front offices adamantly decide they are done with 10 year contracts, what is Scott Boras’s next move?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Go above the front offices, like he usually does

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The smartest thing Scott Boras ever did was figure out you don’t always have to try to negotiate with the usual negotiators

9:55	Jake: Which do you think is easier to improve? A hitter’s launch angle or a fielder’s zone rating (i.e., fielding and getting to balls)?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s easier to adjust a hitter’s launch angle, but remember that a higher launch angle isn’t the point. Quality contact is the point. Lots of guys could hit more fly balls, but they would be worse for it

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: It’s worth considering here that hitters peak a little later than defenders. Suggests that defensive improvements can be hard to come by, outside of exceptional cases like that of Marcus Semien

9:57	Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : I just noticed that every NL team name starts with a consonant but that 1/3rd of the AL team names start with a vowel. God, I wish that spring training would just start already.

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: There are advantages to having a slow-moving offseason market. Such as, a lot of significant stuff still has to happen in the coming six or so weeks

9:58	Will: are Edwin’s declining peripherals a cause for concern for a prospective new club?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, but that’s just tied into the fact he’s going into his age-36 season. He’s worse now

9:59	Bort: How many Vogelbombs do you predict we’ll see in 2019?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say ten. Not convinced yet they’ll give him regular playing time

9:59	Brady Quinn: Rays downsizing Tropicana has to be disheartening for MLB. Thoughts?