Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/6/17

October 6, 2017

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Which I…think…is going to be followed by Dave live-blogging the early game? Find out!

9:05	Bryan: What the hell happened to the Yankees last night?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: They lost!

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: When you’re going up against part of the best pitching staff in at least modern baseball history, you’re probably going to look like you’re taking bad at-bats

9:07	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: So Jeff, you mentioned in your podcast that you loathe Trevor Bauer. Besides his tantilizing skill that has only matriculated into flashes of brilliance and his general irritability, why do you dislike him?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: http://uproxx.com/sports/trevor-bauer-donald-trump-twitter/

9:07	Dookie Howser, MD: With the increase in both flyball ratios, and the three true outcomes, is it time to re-evaluate positional adjustments when calculating WAR? Shouldn’t the SS position be less valuable now with fewer balls hit to it?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: People re-visit the positional adjustments every now and again. The math is always above my head, but it would make sense to me that the shortstop boost should be gradually declining

9:09	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I do not think Torey Lovullo is a bad manager by any means, but regardless of results, batting Archie Bradley with two on and two outs was a terrible decision, right? It didn’t matter in the end and we got a cool play out of it, but that was truly baffling.

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: Bradley relieved De La Rosa with two outs and none on in the top of the seventh. Then he came up to bat in the bottom of the seventh. Granted, he was the fifth guy up, but still, seems like one could’ve anticipated that and just held Bradley to begin the eighth. Don’t think you need a new pitcher in the seventh to face DJ LeMahieu

9:11	Matty P: Shoutout to the homeplate ump yesterday for the yanks Indians. Called a great game

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: The playoffs are young but I’ve yet to see much complaining about the strike zones

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Some borderline calls last night that went against the Yankees but mostly the umpiring has been sharp

9:12

Statcastr: hey Jeff, do you know whatever happened with the whole pitch velocities being 1-ish mph higher due to tracking from the hand instead of at 55 feet? Were any adjustments made or did basically everyone get an extra mph bump? Or was it just left as is and eventually didn’t really have an effect?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t use this http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2429&position=P#pitchtyp…

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Use this! http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2429&position=P#pipitchv…

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: When you have the chance, go by the Pitch Info numbers. They’re adjusted to be consistent over the course of the past decade

9:14	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Jeff, I sent an e-mail to you and Ben on this subject, but as a 30-year old American in 2017, I demand instant gratification. Did you have a chance to see this? https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-downside-of-baseballs-data-revolution…

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing entirely shocking — the three true outcomes aren’t exactly the most democratic of on-field events

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Part of this is also just the rise in velocity, which might’ve been inevitable given newer training techniques. Higher velocity means higher strikeouts, and it means pitchers need a little more rest between pitches

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: But there should be no question that the data revolution has contributed to the state of the sport today

9:17	Pog: After the Coppolella stuff went down, you said that Preller’s presence makes the Padres ethically rotten. Is that just cause of the DL stuff from last year or is there more to his story?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Just a sketchy dude

9:17	Matt: Jeff. I’m not too worried about the Yanks being down 1-0. Starting Kluber today (tomorrow) is a bit nerve-racking though. Can CC be strong enough to give the Yanks the chance to win that they need?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Their relievers yesterday: Warren, Garcia, and one inning of Betances. This won’t be on CC. In theory he really only needs to be passable for three or four innings

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Now, that doesn’t make hitting Kluber any easier. Indians have the obvious advantage today. But it’s not as obvious as the gap between Kluber and Sabathia because Sabathia won’t go very long

9:18	Dookie Howser, MD: Are the Red Sox the worst team left in the playoffs?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Probably the Diamondbacks, unless you believe that Chris Sale is greatly diminished these days

9:19	Dave: If Lester and Arrieta are healthy, would you give the series advantage to Chicago?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Well, we know Arrieta isn’t healthy

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Granted, we also know Scherzer isn’t healthy

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: This series seems to me the most like a coin flip

9:20	mike: if bauer is on some kind of “run” that he keeps up and CLE has Kluber and Carrasco both pitching how they normally do, how insane will this pitching staff be?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-indians-did-have-maybe-the-best-pi…

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Can’t be more best than best ever

9:20	Dan: A day later and that AL MVP race sure looks awfully one-sided, eh?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Remember how Judge hit an important home run in the wild-card game

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Remember how ballots are due before the start of the playoffs

9:21	Dookie Howser, MD: How sick is Jose Altuve of answering questions about his height?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: He was probably more sick of it when he was younger

9:22	Blizzard of Oz: What’s your take on Albies for next year, and did he surprise you this year? A real speed/power threat up the middle?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I like how quick his hands are, and of some note is that, over the course of his debut, he hit just one single pop-up. Line-drive kind of hitter with well-rounded skills. Hell of a skillset for a guy who isn’t yet 21

9:25

Colin: On Bill James’ website yesterday, he responded to a pace of play question from a reader by postulating an idea to reward teams monetarily for playing games quickly, to quote James: “Then let’s say you have a $200 million reward for pace of play. Each game is scored 10, 9, 8. . .etc.; if the game is very quickly played, 10 points for each team. If it is very slowly played, no points for each team. Total up the points at the end of the year, and divide up the reward fund based on the points. With a $200 reward fund, each “point” would have a value of about $8,000. It creates economic pressure not to waste time.” What would you think about such an idea?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: You can also create economic pressure by issuing penalties like automatic balls and automatic strikes for pitchers or hitters who take too long to get ready

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: If you tell players they have X amount of time between pitches, then guys couldn’t violate that too often without their numbers suffering

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: And when numbers go down, so do salaries

9:27	Outta my way, Gyorkass: Convince me that the Brewers will not suffer a frustrating backslide ala the ’16 Astros or Twins next year. I don’t know if I’m just being irrational, but I see disappointment all over this team next year.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Well, I’d feel a lot better if I knew they could count on Jimmy Nelson

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re pretty solidly something like a .500 ballclub but it would take a few breakthroughs to get up to 90 wins. I’m not really worried about a backslide; I feel more like improvement will be hard to achieve

9:29	Bork: Hello, friend!

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:29	Outta my way, Gyorkass: Joe Mauer – probably not a real HOF candidate yet, right? What additional production does he need to register to make it?

9:31

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s there. He needs a few more years like the one he had this season. The biggest thing will be voters evaluating his defensive position — he will have played first base for a while, but he was a solid catcher for several years, and in theory that should lower the bar he has to clear

9:31	Matt: I miss Bork. Where’s Bork?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Good news!

9:31	Nick: What do you enjoy about podcasting vs. writing and vice versa?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Podcasting is easier and it allows for a little more humor. Plus, everything around the podcast is helpful in terms of idea generation. What I like about writing is actually crystallizing thoughts, because I’m not very good at explaining things off the top of my head without all the data

9:32	Llewelyn: I know everyone questioned the Bauer thing ahead of the game, but he had a lower second half era than even Kluber. So they weren’t exactly starting a mediocre pitcher

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Well, it essentially came down to: is Kluber better than Bauer? Everyone in the world would agree the answer is yes. But, correct, it’s not like it was Kluber vs. Ryan Merritt

9:36	TKDC: Before MLB made rules to suppress international players’ signing bonuses, you didn’t see any 16-year olds signing monster deals. But now there is a thought that Maitan, 17, could fetch $20 million-plus. Why weren’t there these huge signings before the rules went into place?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe I’m too much in the dark but I haven’t seen that number thrown around re: Maitan. The same international rules would still apply to him

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: In general, baseball has made it more difficult over time to spend money wisely on non-major leaguers. So when teams see an opportunity to spend for value now, they might be more likely to seize it

9:38	Outta my way, Gyorkass: Why hasn’t MLB been more aggressive in marketing Trout as (one of the) face(s) of baseball? Will they try to do this with Judge if he keeps going gangbusters for another few years?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Judge is probably well on his way. He’s got everything working for him

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think Trout wants to be heavily marketed. And he doesn’t exactly ooze with charisma

9:40	Zach: Did you see anything sustainable in the season that Scooter Gennett put together? His BB/K/BABIP/LD rates were all in line with the back of his baseball card.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see a breakout there, if that’s what you mean. I just see a guy particularly well suited to the current HR-friendly environment. He’s exactly the sort of player who would benefit most from what’s going on

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Probably good for something like a 100 – 110 wRC+ moving forward

9:42	Mariner Moose (VP, 1996-2000) : Of the 8 playoff teams left, how would you rank them in terms of the enjoyment you derive from watching them play baseball?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Not really a team thing for me at this point. I guess Arizona feels the most fresh, but there are individual players on every remaining team that I love to watch play

9:43	Tom: Best food to bring to a Playoff game party?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Fried chicken

9:43	Eric: With Kluber going tonight, the Yankees Cinderella story seems to be just about over, doesn’t it?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:43	Patrick: What do you think of the rain?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Nourishing

9:44	Pip: How surprised are you to see that Victor Robles made it onto the Nationals NLDS roster?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Seems like Dusty is banking on leaning pretty heavily on his starters. That’s not a shock. Just generally, I do think players with skills like Robles’ make sense in a short series

9:45	Bryan: Was there any silver lining for the Yankees loss?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: It’s one loss

9:46	BaseballBundesliga: Think there was more to the Kluber shift than keeping him on normal rest?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: They know how Kluber likes to work, and they know the rest of their pitching staff is also very good

9:47	Sean: Was the AZ-COL game the most exciting WC game in the new EC era?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: ?!?!?!

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/KCA/KCA201409300.shtml

9:47	DD: Do you see the Orioles making any “big” move this offseason in order to compete – or are we stuck with another middling club that doesn’t really do anything well?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: My guess is it’ll be more of the same. A few second- and third-tier pitching moves, but it’ll be one last gasp before Machado forces their hand

9:48	stever20: how worried should the Red Sox be long term with Chris Sale? In his last 9 starts to include last night he’s got a 5.12 ERA with a FIP that is higher than that. 14 homers allowed in 51 innings. Is this just fatigue, or is there something more worrisome long term?

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: I was trying to analyze Sale last night for a couple of hours and I just can’t really see much of anything there. His walks and strikeouts and stuff remain extraordinary, even during the slump. The slump is almost *entirely* home runs, and those are the hardest things to make sense of

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I understand he’s probably feeling somewhat fatigued by now. So is every other regular player in the playoffs

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I will say that recently Sale has had more trouble than usual burying his slider. His pitches have all stayed a little more up. But he’s still striking out so many batters I don’t think he’s turned into rubbish

9:50	Mike: Is there any way Pomeranz can not get blown out by the Astros tonight?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: In two starts against the Astros this year Pomeranz allowed two runs in 12.1 innings

9:51	Outta my way, Gyorkass: Is there something about Arizona that makes them a bad matchup for LAD, or is the Dodgers’ 8-11 record vs the D-Backs with a 71-99 run disadvantage just SSS noise?

9:52

Jeff Sullivan: Earlier in the season, the Dodgers went 8-5 against the Diamondbacks. Then they played them six times in the middle of that inexplicable team-wide slump. Went 0-6 and the games weren’t close. Obviously, the Diamondbacks had something to do with that, but it seemed like more of a timing issue

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Arizona is good! LA has injury-related question marks. Probably would suggest this series would go to the Dodgers in 5

9:54

Amed Rosario Dawson’s Creek: Seems like opinions on future potential for Rosario were very split preseason. Who was right? Is his plate discipline so bad that he’s never likely to be a star level hitter (say wRC+ of 120+), or is he still so young and talented that the sky is the limit. Any guesses on who he is as a ballplayer? Do you see more Lindor, or more Alcides?

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: Rosario deserves a full major-league season. Remember that even when Trout debuted with that kind of playing time, he wasn’t good. But Rosario needs to forget all about 2017 in the majors. Every indicator was bad, apart from his defense. Horrible discipline, horrible contact, horrible batted balls

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: He’s still not even 22 years old, but he has to prove he can be better than, say, Freddy Galvis

9:57	Mike M: The Astros should be America’s team, right? I mean, purely objectively, their players are wonderful people, diverse, they score tons, they come in a variety of experience levels and physical sizes. (Note: I am not objective.)

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: If there’s one thing I know America is in 2017, it’s happily united!

9:58	PTBNL: As bullpens eat more innings relative to starters, do we need to re-evaluate the minimum qualifying IP for starters? Number of qualifying pitchers went down from something like 88 in 2013 to 58 this year.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: For statistical purposes, there’s an argument there, to be sure. But the counterargument would be, so what? Who cares what the qualifying threshold is? It only matters if you care about something like the ERA title

9:59	CT: you ever go to any trailblazers games?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Still no, for some reason. Go to plenty of Winterhawks games