Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/11/14

November 11, 2014

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: You have questions about baseball

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I have a responsibility to answer some of them

9:06	Comment From stuart scott BOOYAH

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Hey Stuart

9:06	Comment From Xolo What do you know about Kwang Hyun Kim? For $2M, doesn’t sound like the Padres are expecting much from him.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s what I’d say: teams are more excited about international players than ever, given their overall success, so for a top bid to come in at $2 million, that tells you not a lot of teams believe in the player being worth much of anything

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Probably, he’d end up a reliever or a nothing

9:08	Comment From _David_ Fearing that the Mariners will trade Brad Miller for Matt Kemp, am I crazy to prefer Miller if Kemp were reduced to the same cost?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: If everything were exactly equal I could see the argument for Kemp over Miller, but everything is not exactly equal, so, yeah, you don’t want to make that trade

9:09	Comment From _David_ Are starting pitchers worth more as free agents because more (all) teams have openings at their position?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Actually seems like with greater supply, they’re worth a little less, relative to what they might be worth in the middle of the year. In December, the A’s don’t give up Russell for Samardzija and Hammel

9:10	Comment From Winpons? Did we do good? We buy player good?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Not good, but not worth freaking out about. It’s almost never worth freaking out about. Cuddyer will probably hit fine

9:10	Comment From peep do you think we will ever see another 300 game winner?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Not in our lifetimes

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Unless our lifetimes become borderline infinite prior to their conclusions

9:11	Comment From King Buzzos Fro Do you think the Mariners will shell out for another high priced free agent?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll at least try hard

9:11	Comment From adam Robertson turns down QO, does NYY still sign him or does he walk? If so, Detroit?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I still feel like he sticks around for two years, maybe with an option

9:12

Comment From David
This Cuddyer deal doesn’t make sense to me for either side.

For Cuddyer he’s buying up what, $6M for that second year? Unless he completely craters you’ve got to figure he’d get better than that next off season. Now his next contract is going to be without the benefit of Coors-inflated stats as well.

For the Mets. Sheesh. Rasmus, Morse, Rios, Hunter are all comparable for a similar or lower cost, and don’t have the draft pick attached. WHY?!?

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe there won’t be a next contract. Maybe he really wanted to play in New York. Maybe he wanted two guaranteed years of at least perceived stability. Maybe he thinks the Mets are in a better position than the Rockies are to compete. Coors-inflated stats this time around didn’t help him do better than 2/$21m. As for the Mets, they don’t seem to attach a super high value to the 15th pick, and they value having Cuddyer done already. The other guys haven’t hit as well as he has lately, on top of that

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Again, I don’t like it much, but given what Cuddyer has done over his past 750 PA or so, you can see how it isn’t nonsensical. Morse is an even worse defender. Hunter’s going to take a while to make a decision. Rasmus frustrates everybody. Rios hit four home runs.

9:15	Comment From Cooper Adam Lind enough to at least keep the Brewers relevant?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: No, but Lucroy and Gomez are

9:15	Comment From Guest What do you make of the Hanley Ramirez rumored connection to the M’s?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: They checked in. It’s pretty damn unlikely. Victor Martinez is not unlikely

9:15	Comment From Guest With a gun to you’re head, do you weep for your life, or be a bad ass and grab the gun out of you’re assailant’s hand?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: elbow to the junk

9:16	Comment From Billy How much of Buxton’s and Sano’s shine have come off due to injuries?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Not very much. Problems, to be sure, but with position players, you’d rather have years lost to injury than years lost to underperformance, I feel like

9:16	Comment From Gary I’ve heard positive things about the new Twins home jerseys but I think they’re disgusting. What are your thoughts?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I like them fine and taste is subjective so no one is in the wrong!

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I will never for my life understand people who have particularly strong opinions about uniforms

9:17	Comment From Darth Stout Do you believe the Cubs will trade Starlin Castro this offseason?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I actually don’t, but I’m at about 40%

9:17	Comment From adam Matt Harvey ranks ___ among pitchers by seasons end?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’ll rank a little lower than his ability because of some caution as he comes back, but he should resemble at least a lower-tier No. 1

9:18	Comment From JasonJ Thoughts on Yasmany Tomas? Think he gets 100M+?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Still think he gets nine figures, yeah. He’s got power and age on Rusney Castillo

9:18	Comment From Steve Even if the Mets sign another player who was offered a QO, that doesn’t make the Cuddyer signing good, right? Who’s a fit for them? Hanley as a SS? Also, good morning, Jeff.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: They’re going to sniff around all the available shortstops, like Ramirez, Castro, potentially Tulo, Miller, Gregorius, and so on. They’ll get somebody and they’ll look like the favorites to finish second in the East

9:19	Comment From Buford Sartoris Chone Figgins didn’t have a great arm but played some good third base. Mookie Betts can’t?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Who says he can’t?

9:20	Comment From adam better career post tommy john – Harvey or Fernandez

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Fernandez

9:20	Comment From _David_ Why do you think the Mariners (seem to) prefer Ackley so much to Saunders? 2nd overall shine?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: They think Saunders is soft

9:21	Comment From Sandy Kazmir Baseball is fun. No baseball is not. On a scale of 0 – 1 how unrealistic is every fan of every fanbase when they propose trades during the offseason?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes it’s cute when they try to be realistic. They still aren’t, and the effort makes it worse

9:22	Comment From matt Any guess on where gattis could end up?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Could be a Plan B or C for Seattle, and now that I think about it Kansas City might be of interest. You know how teams feel about right-handed power

9:22	Comment From King Buzzos Fro If 2 million was the top bid, it sounds like NOBODY was expecting much from KHK

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: That would’ve been a better way to put that

9:23	Comment From Mike Over/under 4.5 as the number of Phillies currently under contract that are dealt this winter?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll say under — 4 — but I can’t tell if Howard will get moved or just dumped

9:24	Comment From Kevin Let’s get down to brass tacks. The Mets just signed an injury-prone OF, whose offensive numbers were inflated by Coors AND they have to give up a draft pick. It’s a bad move, with potentially disastrous consequences if, as many other Mets signings, he gets hurt.

9:26

Jeff Sullivan: The whole point of wRC+ is to strip away park effects. Dexter Fowler just posted a career-best wRC+ after leaving Colorado for Houston. Cuddyer *is* getting older and he *does* get hurt and the Mets *did* lose a draft pick, but Cuddyer’s been a well above-average hitter for years, so it’s not like it’s completely bonkers. I don’t think a guy like Michael Cuddyer has the potential to be disastrous. Disastrous is a very strong word.

9:26	Comment From Sirras One So the Mets are fairly clearly planning to make a run for the second wildcard in ’15. How many more pieces do they really need to contend? I’m thinking a shortstop would be nice and one or two bullpen arms are needed.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, pretty much. The thing about contending for the second wild card is you don’t need to actually be very good to do it

9:26	Comment From Gary do you pronounce WAR like “car” or like “sore”?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: sore

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: who pronounces it like car?

9:27	Comment From Billy Is Billy Hamilton just a newer Rajai Davis, somewhere between a 3rd/4th OF?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Hamilton’s the superior defensive player, so I think he spends years as a regular

9:27	Comment From adam who would you rather hang out with: felix hernandez or larry bernandez

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Felix Hernandez

9:28	Comment From GK If MLB or the Rays could actually prove the Cubs tampered with Joe Maddon to pry him away, what type of compensation would TB be entitled to?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Something like a prospect in the 11-20 range, I bet. Nothing that would make a meaningful impact. Potentially just a fine

9:28	Comment From Sandy Kazmir Braves should probably go for broke with J-Up and J-Hey unlikely to return. Yay/Nay?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Alternatively, they could try to reload to time a big year with when they debut their new stadium. Then they’d be shuffling Upton and Heyward around

9:29	Comment From Stephen Ryan howard with the Royals? I dont get it. Billy at least had a higher average.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Royals are just looking for bats they could get for just about literally nothing. He’d serve as a role player

9:29	Comment From mtsw Japan series: just for fun or useful way to evaluate international talent vs major league competition?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Just for fun

9:30	Comment From Sirras One Do you read every story on the FanGraphs network of sites?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: No. I can’t, not if I want to ever get any work done. I read a lot, though

9:30	Comment From adam the bigger mistake: QO to Cuddyer or Mets giving up a pick?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I was fine with the QO, so, the latter

9:31	Comment From Steve What does a potential trade for tulo look like?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: A blockbuster. At least three high-quality young talents in or close to the majors

9:32

Comment From Badison Mumgarner
Jeff, do you feel like the service time clock for minor leaguers is becoming a loop hole for teams to prevent great players from making money early? it just seems like there are many top prospects who may be mlb ready but are languishing in the minors because teams want to “season” them more even though they ought to be given the opportunity to play and get paid for it. thanks.

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, nothing’s “becoming” a loop hole — this has been an issue for a very long time. I expect that it’ll be addressed in the next CBA. At least, they’ll try to address it. Working in, say, the Pirates’ defense is that Gregory Polanco wasn’t very good this year, despite everyone thinking he was ready right away, but it’s no secret that players stay down longer than is necessary for the sake of helping the team’s financial future.

9:34	Comment From _David_ I assume teams will be smart enough to low ball the Mariners for Saunders, but competition dictates that the offers will rise. Will the Mariners know to keep negotiating, or will they take an offer they wrongly view as high, as not to miss the opportunity?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Even when Nick Franklin was obviously on the outs, it still took months for the Mariners to trade him somewhere else. Saunders will be in demand, and assuming the Mariners move him, they’ll do okay in the deal, and they’ll replace him with a worse outfielder, probably

9:35	Comment From Edge O Or Tor chasing Headley or Sandoval and moving Lawrie to 2B?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I think they look for a second baseman. Could be the Kendrick destination

9:36	Comment From Michael If Headley can be had for 4/$50m, why would anyone even talk to Sandoval?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Because there’s only one Chase Headley

9:36	Comment From EW Technical Question: Any idea what “PU” stands for? Been seeing it in SIERA formulae, next to GB, FB, PA.

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: pop-up, probably

9:37	Comment From Hi Erix Are teams allowed to move the fences to their parks every season? Why don’t teams do this to adjust for their expected rotation’s abilities?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Too much work, not enough benefit.

9:38	Comment From Sirras One re: 300 game winner – You don’t see Kershaw getting there?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: He’s 202 away. Randy Johnson topped out at 303. Odds are very strongly against Kershaw

9:40	Comment From Billy Outside of potential growth from Polanco, are the Buccos going to improve at any other position compared to this past season? I only see regression in their record.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Alvarez should be better, but yeah, losing Martin is going to sting. On the plus side, the Pirates just finished with the third-best BaseRuns record in the NL, and there’s talent on the farm, so it’s not like 2015 is going to be a mess

9:42	Comment From Jeff Assuming (hoping) both Markakis and Cruz are gone, the Orioles will need at least 1 more corner OF. Would Kemp & $ (30mil?) for Miguel Gonzalez, Zach Davies and another low level arm be completely crazy?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it would be crazy, no. I expect that the Orioles will be active in any kind of Kemp market

9:42	Comment From Bill But really… Sandy Alderson isn’t dumb, right? What does he see that no one else seems to see?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Cuddyer’s a good hitter and the Mets needed one more outfielder. And, he could get Cuddyer yesterday, whereas other guys would take longer. There’s value in settling a question this early in the offseason, so you don’t get strung along

9:43	Comment From Gabriel Will someone take E Jackson from Cubs? (basically for free) Would it be worth it? I’m thinking teamns like M’s or Pirates that can take a flier on him if Cubs eat dollars and see if he can contribute.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates would be interesting I suppose but no one’s going to count on Jackson to help. He’s either getting bought out or exchanged for another problem contract at another position

9:44	Comment From J Tulowitzki is the starting shortstop for ____ on opening day

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll go boring and say Colorado

9:44	Comment From Bret Jays have been connected to a bunch of top free agents, seemingly under the strategy of, “Let’s see if we can get any of these guys to take our money, and then we’ll figure out the positions later.” Think they sign any of them?

9:45

Jeff Sullivan: Alex Anthopoulos talks to everyone. He’s constantly in conversation with every team about every decent player in baseball. So his team ends up getting connected to anyone and everyone that makes even the slightest lick of sense. I don’t think the Jays end up with a big single investment, but I suspect they will make one or two second-tier moves

9:46	Comment From Kip What do the Mets have against draft picks? Cuddyer worth the pool hit from losing #15?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I personally don’t think so, but it depends on where you value that pick. Could be as low as $7 million, could be as high as, say, $25 million. The Mets pretty clearly put it closer to $7 million

9:46	Comment From King Buzzos Fro Craziest spot you could see Sandoval signing?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: White Sox would be weird

9:47	Comment From Hi Erix Any idea why we haven’t seen Sandoval linked to the Yankees at all? They clearly want Headley, seems like they ought to be similarly in on Sandoval (I understand he’ll be more expensive, but he also seems pretty universally regarded as the better player)

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: They already had Headley and they want to stick with the smaller investment

9:47	Comment From King Buzzos Fro how many incomplete questions do you have to look through?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Surprisingly few!

9:47	Comment From jocephus nothing shocking about NL ROY right?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Nope. deGrom got better, Hamilton got worse

9:47	Comment From mtsw Is the Cuddyer deal a sign that teams aren’t good at pricing in park factors? His numbers look impressive until you see the home/away splits…

9:48

Jeff Sullivan: Home/away splits are misleading for Rockies because they have a real temporary disadvantage when they play for Colorado. They don’t see pitches move normally half the time, so they’re not prepared to hit those pitches on the road. Cuddyer is going to get back to normal in New York. Previously, players have mostly been fine going from the Rockies to another team closer to sea level

9:49	Comment From Guest Which team is under the most pressure to shift their franchise around this offseason?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I guess you could say the Mets, but people are really running out of patience in Toronto

9:50	Comment From Give the People What they Want! Are you and/or Dave going to put together a proposed off-season plan for the Seattle Mariners? It’s a time-honored tradition, don’t give up just when it is getting interesting!

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I haven’t done that in years and I don’t think Dave has, either

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: But this one’s actually pretty simple. Find a bat, find a starter, shut it down

9:51	Comment From Bill What do we know less about: The Mets internal evaluations of Cuddyer/Granderson or the market as they see it? There has to be some gap that made a seemingly intelligent front office commit to Granderson and Cuddyer.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Well, the contracts give us a clue as to the Mets’ internal evaluations of the players

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they just don’t see all that many outfielders who are interested in signing with New York, and maybe they prefer to overpay in terms of money instead of prospects

9:53	Comment From NL Central Limit Theorem Do you think it was wise for the Cardinals to give up on the idea of Trevor Rosenthal as a starting pitcher? Are they going down the same path with Carlos Martinez?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they can complain about what Rosenthal’s become, and yeah, it seems to me the Cardinals have already made their decision on Martinez. Generally I’m more for letting guys start until they prove that they can’t, but the Cardinals don’t have that luxury of time when they’re trying to win every season

9:54	Comment From Alex What should the Nationals do at 2B?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: See what they can do for Kendrick, or possibly turn to Jed Lowrie

9:54	Comment From Sirras One Would you be surprised to see a trade involving Tulo this year? Who ends up with him if he’s traded?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I actually would be surprised, if only because it would require such a haul, and I don’t know who out there is willing to give up on so much young talent, even with a superstar coming in return

9:55	Comment From Greg Hamels most talk about trade subject ends up not getting move?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I feel like he gets traded, but maybe not until July

9:56	Comment From Apple n Oatmeal Who can actually help themselves the most by buying free agents? Who can hurt themselves the most?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: bigger-budget teams, smaller-budget teams

9:57	Comment From Michael Is there any reason to assume a catching prospect, say, Blake Swihart, is anything other than average at pitch framing? And if he is average at it, how much better does he have to be at hitting than Christian Vazquez to be the Red Sox catcher of the future?