Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/3/17

November 3, 2017

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Our first Friday baseball chat of the offseason

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I am fully prepared to take your offseason questions while being unprepared to answer them

9:08	Dookie Howser, MD: Did the Red Sox hire Tony La Russa as some kind of cruel joke?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: The current Red Sox front office sure looks different from the Red Sox front office of just a few years ago

9:09	Bebop: give me a hypothetical trade that helps fix the Cubs bullpen…a trade with the Indians where they get Zach Macallister, Otero, Merrit, Clevinger for Montgomery, Edwards & Schwarber work?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: They could sign Brandon Morrow

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: The elite relievers aren’t out there, at least not in free agency. There’s no Jansen, there’s no Chapman. This was also a season of re-learning that really good relievers can emerge out of nowhere. I’m not convinced the Cubs won’t just load up on talented arms and hope to find another Blake Parker or something

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I also don’t think they would be that interested in moving Edwards, playoffs be damned

9:11	Ned Yost: Can you talk a little about Jake McGee? His FIP away from Coors was 1.95, the Ks are there, control was decent. What kind of deal is he looking at in free agency?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Not too old, re-gained a lot of his missing velocity. Not the strikeout machine he used to be but McGee is positioned to get two fairly pricey years on the market

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: One minute, having some technical difficulties with a podcast just recorded before this

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for this annoyance

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: This is very annoying for all of us…

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: All right, we’re back to normal now

9:19	Alec Asher Wojciechowski: In a crazy hypothetical where the Yankees decide that Hinch is the only manager for them, what kind of talent would they have to give up for the Astros to part with him?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously, there’s not much of a history of compensation for managers

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: When Theo Epstein went to the Cubs, they sent the Red Sox Chris Carpenter (not that one) and Aaron Kurcz

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I’d think in this weird-ass hypothetical, the Yankees would have to give the Astros a third-tier prospect or two

9:22

Jack: Going into into this year, perhaps more than any other year I can remember, almost everyone seemed to agree on who was going to win each division. In each case, the majority turned out to be correct, and most division “races” weren’t even close. I know the offseason hasn’t even started yet, but it seems like each one of those teams will once again be picked by the majority to repeat as division champs, though I’m sure there will be people predicting the Yankees to overtake the Red Sox. So I’m not gonna let you answer this question with the Yankees. Excluding the Yankees, which non-division winning team in 2017 has the best chance to win their division in 2018?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I’m tempted to say it’s either the Brewers or the Mets

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Neither team has that great of a chance, especially with the Brewers missing Jimmy Nelson, but the Cubs are going to need a lot of pitching help they might not get. And the Mets might get their own healthy pitchers to stay healthy instead of hurt

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Really wouldn’t take that much to make the Mets competitive again

9:24	Safety Stegosaurus: Does Apizza Scholls live up to the hype?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing good ever lives up to the hype, but it is delicious pizza

9:24	Bebop: if you were the Cardinals, would you trade Matt Carpenter this off season? Seems like either Carpenter or Wong should go.

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t make a point of it, no. He’s too valuable, and they’re still trying to be competitive

9:26	YDG: If you could take control of the FO for any team that didn’t make the playoffs, who would you go with?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Padres, maybe. Zero expectations, very little pressure, potential for a fast rise

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Good place to live

9:27	CamdenWarehouse: whew – I’m really glad we’re moving into offseason baseball coverage. The playoffs are tedious with the same things being said again and again just changing team/player names etc.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I love the playoffs, work demands aside, but it is nice to get to this point and remember that there are 30 teams, instead of 10 or 8 or 4 or 2

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I’m ready to write about teams who aren’t the Astros or the Dodgers

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Well, let me say, I’ll be ready to write about those teams next week. Right now I’m all out of juice

9:28	Matt: What type of decline, if any, do you expect to see out of Lester in ’18? If it is somewhat steep, does that necessitate a more aggressive FA/trading strategy for SP acquisition?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: I expect that Lester’s going to be fine. But I also expect that the Cubs will be very aggressive looking for quality rotation help

9:28	Mark: Stanton is wearing a ___ jersey next season.

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: different

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Take that, Mark

9:29	Daniel: What now?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: The other fun part

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: The playoffs are the fun part, but the regular season is also the fun part. But the transaction stuff is also the fun part

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: This is when you get to see organizational plans implemented and tweaked. You get to try to read into every single transaction to see what a team might be trying to do. The stakes are much lower than what they were this past month, but I love it for the puzzles

9:30	Chase Kimura: Who’s your second baseman for the Halos? Cesar Hernandez would look pretty hitting in front of Trout and J-Up. They have money to spend on some pitching as well.

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Hernandez would be a good fit for them, but they’re probably still in a situation where they don’t have what they’d need in order to trade for him

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if they might swoop in to try to get Ian Kinsler

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Probably too much of a longshot to expect the Angels to buy low on Jurickson Profar

9:33	ljc: The year after their World Series went just fine, but it did not go as well as the Cubs would’ve wanted. If a similar step back happened to the Astros (and Dodgers, though they obviously did not win), what would you guess the reasons were?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: I’m a general believer in the hangover effect, whether because of reduced energy, or just because of having to play an extra month, meaning that’s a month stolen from the offseason. The Astros just left everything on the field and they’re going to have less time to rest

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Throw in some kind of psychological component, where it might take them a while to generate that same drive, and you could see a slow start

9:35	Bortky: Any particular features you are looking forward to / want to promote this offseason? (More ball conspiracy, the effects of animals running out onto the playing field, etc?)

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: You might be under the impression that I go into every offseason with a plan

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I do not do that

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Every single day — every single day — I wake up and wing it

9:36	Jerkstore: Roberto Osuna for Ian Happ? if someone needs to add pieces, which team?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think the Cubs want to give up that much control over a quality young position player

9:37	Craig: Which of the current tankers/rebuilders has the best chance of following in the Astros’ footsteps?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the Phillies, depending on how strongly you believe in Hoskins

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: You can start to see the development of a core of position players, plus Aaron Nola

9:38	Q-Ball: Final prediction on Jake Arrieta’s contract?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I have absolutely no idea

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’s going to get more than he’s worth, because it’ll only take one owner

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: I guess I’ll say 4/$90m, but I wouldn’t want to be the team that does that

9:39	HappyFunBall: Now that we’re officially in the off-season, let’s make some guesses. What FA is going to receive an unconscionably large deal? Who’s going to be the best bargain? What otherwise cromulent player is going to be inexplicably unsigned when Spring Training begins?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Arrieta is going to take forever to sign, and then he’ll sign for too much

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Morrow will sign a decent contract, but I bet he could end up worth a lot more than the guarantee

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Chatwood has already been discussed as a clear upside guy

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see a Charlie Morton anywhere, but I guess you could always take a shot on Henderson Alvarez

9:42	jjkeller: Better for a team like the Mariners to go all in on a guy like Darvish and then cheaper on OF/1B, or try to spread the wealth between the three?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Spread the wealth. Mariners aren’t in position to go all-in on anybody. Their big offseason hope is basically luck into Ohtani

9:43	Steve: The Astros’ decision to not sign Brady Aiken got them Alex Bregman. Safe to say that worked out ok right?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure there’s anyone in the world possessing a higher degree of self-confidence than Alex Bregman

9:44	Bebop: If the Yanks had beaten Houston, can you think of a more impressive road to the WS (beating Cleveland & Houston) from years past? I’m sure there are some but none immediately spring to mind.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: But it also didn’t happen

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: So

9:44	Tea Leoni for Third: Why does Portland have light rail and a streetcar and why do they overlap so much?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, but there’s still not enough of it

9:44	Zonk: Is it fair to say the Dodgers made all the right moves in putting their team together, it just didn’t work out? Baseball, right?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Every team makes moves they regret, but the Dodgers assembled a juggernaut. And then Yu Darvish, one of the better starting pitchers in the game, was shit two times, out of nowhere

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Throw in a Kenley Jansen blown save and, welp, that’s baseball for you

9:46	Tea Leoni for Third: Who will be the best player acquired this offseason by the Mariners?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Some league-average first baseman

9:46	stever20: so how crazy was this World Series that we had not only one of the top 10 WS performances ever in Springer, but also one of the bottom 10 WS performances ever in Darvish?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: In Darvish’s defense, the win probability numbers blame him for defensive mistakes, like, say, the Cody Bellinger error

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: But he was still very bad

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Fun series!

9:47	Safety Stegosaurus: Will Tulowitzki’s unwillingness to move off shortstop present a problem down the road?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Down the road, he’ll be more likely to change his mind

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: For now, it’s not the defense that’s holding Tulowitzki back

9:47	Steve: Do you see any pace of play changes implemented this offseason?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely yes

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: At the very least, I expect to see the pitch clock

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: And I wouldn’t be surprised if the league did something about the innumerable mound meetings between pitchers and catchers

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if it’s just something I started to notice, but catchers in the playoffs were going out every damn third pitch

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I get it, the stakes are high and everything, but, good lord, Willson Contreras

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: (and Brian McCann)

9:48	Steve: Everyone has Harper going to New York or LA. Any dark horse candidates?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: everyone else

9:49	HappyFunBall: What _wrong_ lesson from this year’s postseason are too many teams going to learn?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: You can ignore your best reliever in the World Series based on small-sample struggles

9:49	Tea Leoni for Third: Does Hosmer only get a crazy contract if the Red Sox bite?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: No, he’s going to get something enormous

9:50	Zonk: What next for the Giants? Can they really acquire enough talent to get back into contention? Or is it more likely they just plod along because they can’t stomach trading Posey and/or MadBum?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Giants are likely to bounce back in a pretty significant way even by doing almost nothing. Clearly they need some help in the outfield and whatnot, but I’m not too concerned about the core talent on the roster. I think it was just one of those years

9:50	Guest: Postseason baseball is a small sample but can people stop with the notion that the 2017 Astros were “too RH” & while Yuli Gurriel might be a racist, he’s a pretty damn good hitter too, not a offensive liability.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine caring at this point

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: The Astros won the championship. That kind of validates everything, in retrospect

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Gurriel has an unusual offensive profile and he’s not an elite first baseman or anything, but in today’s game, contact gets you places

9:52	Happ-y, JA-Y: Do the Jays sell off Donaldson and kickstart the rebuild or keep him and try for contention again this year?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I mostly expect them to try again

9:52	Happ-y, JA-Y: Does Molitor win MoY?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Almost certainly

9:53	Canyonero Driver: How would the Cubs analytical department compare to others? Top 5? Top 10?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Easy top 10. Within there, no idea. Little to distinguish one top FO from another

9:53	Mike: With Jake Arrieta seemingly not having a robust market, does it seem like he might end up back with the Cubs rather that the Cubs signing, say Darvish (especially if Ohtani is further delayed)?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: I imagine that, at least in private, the Cubs are pretty happy to be going their separate ways. I doubt they’d have much interest at all in a reunion. They see all the same indicators as everyone else

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Arrieta is a Boras guy. He’ll go over the top of some front office to sell a know-nothing owner on Arrieta’s proven track record of big-game pitching

9:54	Q-Ball: What teams do you think are going to go full rebuild this offseason?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles should, but presumably won’t

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: The Blue Jays could, but presumably won’t

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: The Tigers have already started

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how the Royals are going to emerge from this

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: The Rangers might start laying the rebuild foundation

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: And the Marlins, of course, are going to begin some major shedding

9:57	Silly Beane: Hi Jeff: Do you think the Giants and Cubbies could work out a Heyward for Melancon and Shark deal? Swap of bad contracts for everyone and that still fits their needs

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Teams would be interested in Samardzija and Melancon. No team would feel particularly compelled to take a chance on Heyward

9:58	James: How do the Astros fix the bullpen? Add a lefty and….?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: voila

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: They don’t need to do very much

9:58	RIP Rick the Peanut Guy: Does Andrew Albers make the M’s rotation or at least lined up as the 6th starter?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I could see him opening as the 5th guy

9:59	StolenMonkey86: What will be the worst move of the offseason?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Overpaying Arrieta