Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/7/18

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Jeff Sullivan: Been a busy week! Going to be a busy week!

aw: Hey Jeff, what are your thoughts on DRC+?

Jeff Sullivan: Seems initially promising but I haven’t had the time this week to actually dig in. Probably going to be airplane reading tomorrow

Jeff Sullivan: Don’t otherwise have anything substantive to say. Not sure I agree with the park factors but I also can’t say that and mean it without yet fully understanding the methodology

Ross: Saw something about the Rays being interested in Charlie Morton. That… actually makes a lot of sense, right?

Jeff Sullivan: The Rays are in an interesting position where they’re ready to be good, and they can afford to sign an expensive player for about a season or two

Jeff Sullivan: Donaldson would’ve fit. Goldschmidt would’ve fit. Cruz would fit. Morton would fit. They have an exceedingly low payroll, and I’d expect it to rise

Jeff Sullivan: Although I also realize the Rays make lots of sense for Jose Martinez now and Martinez costs nothing, soooo

pelkey: there’s basically no chance david peralta doesn’t get traded right? what would reasonable compensation for him look like?

Jeff Sullivan: I think there’s some chance — he’s in his 30s, he’s a non-elite corner outfielder, and there are only so many buyers right now with such a need

Jeff Sullivan: But he’d be a clear fit in, say, Atlanta. Maybe Arizona could come away with someone like Kolby Allard, but they might have to aim a tier lower depending on how many alternatives the Braves are looking at

Jack: The Rockies should sign Nelson Cruz and play him at first base. Change my mind. (I realize he’s never played first base, but there’s video on his Instagram of him getting some reps there this offseason, so it seems like something he’s open to)

Jeff Sullivan: If Cruz’s market tanks, it would be worth a few phone calls, but I don’t know how much he actually *wants* to play first base. The Rockies should be one of the teams asking about Jose Martinez, or if they want to take a chance, perhaps they call the Yankees about Greg Bird

Jeff Sullivan: Yankees might be getting sick of him now, but there’s no better cure for what ails a hitter than Colorado

Jeff Sullivan: Well, steroids, I guess. Besides steroids

AJ: Does Trevor Bauer to TB for Brandon Lowe, Jesus Sanchez, and Michael Perez make sense for both sides? Rays get a stud to pair with Snell at the top of the rotation and clear some 40-man space, Lowe can help the Indians in the OF this year and move to 2B when Kipnis leaves, Sanchez gives them an OF for the future, and Perez is a cheap, young, defensively sound catcher to platoon with Roberto Perez.

Jeff Sullivan: As good as Bauer has become, he does have just the two years left, he’s getting expensive, and this feels too heavy from the TB perspective

Jeff Sullivan: Now, granted, maybe I’m higher on Brandon Lowe than other people are, but he’s ready to make a big-league impact today. Perez is on the major-league roster. Sanchez is a true quality prospect. Don’t think it’s a trade I’d advise the Rays to make, although perhaps if I did a little more research I might be swayed in the other direction

Jeff Sullivan: You might be able to rearrange to Lowe, Perez, and a third piece that’s lesser than Sanchez

AJ Preller: I’ma neeeeeeed some new starting pitching if I want to take some steps forward this year.  Do I trade or go for the remaining FA?  Or both?

Jeff Sullivan: I’d expect trades. Everybody likes trades. The Padres like trades

Jeff Sullivan: Now, I don’t know, maybe the Padres end up with Kikuchi, who’s available in a non-trade. But they have an outfielder surplus, and by the end of the offseason I don’t think that’ll be true anymore

Larry: Seattle and Arizona are doing a partial teardown for a quick return to contention. Care to guess which will be first to reach 90 wins again?

Jeff Sullivan: Oof. uhhhhh Seattle, I guess, but it’s like 55/45

Tim: Andrew McCutchen makes a lot of sense for the Astros, right? Did the Yankees re-signing Gardner close the door on him staying there?

Jeff Sullivan: McCutchen would be an April fit with the Astros, but I don’t know what their timeline is with Tucker. If Tucker gets traded — for, say, someone like Realmuto — McCutchen would work even better. Failing that, it’s more complicated, because if Tucker is ready the Astros wouldn’t want an established proud veteran standing in his way

Jeff Sullivan: At that point maybe McCutchen would eat into Reddick’s playing time. Would be an expensive pseudo-platoon

Jeff Sullivan: You can add McCutchen to the list of possible future Rays, swinging between OF and DH

Ralph Lauren: Which team has the best uniforms?

Jeff Sullivan: Love the Giants’ home colors. Always have

squeeze bunt: What do you consider as your baseball “specialty”?  Kiley and Eric are obviously prospect guys, but is there a profile page somewhere on fangraphs that lays out what each writer is mainly interested/has expertise in?

Jeff Sullivan: There is not!

Jeff Sullivan: I guess my specialty would probably be doing complex player or transaction analysis quickly

Jeff Sullivan: Granted, Dave would probably laugh at the “quickly” part

Jeff Sullivan: But Dave would spend less time looking up information than me

Tiger: As a Reds fan, we hear they are finally going to “spend” their money. They have been rumored to be in on quite a few guys as it is. Currently remaining, they are in contact with the Indians, and are in on Pollock. I would be thrilled with a AJP and Kluber/Bauer return but have a feeling it’s going to be something way less exciting like Keuchel and Ervin Santana. Thoughts?

Jeff Sullivan: Reds are clearly growing impatient, and they clearly need help on the pitching staff. They were in on Paxton, I think, and they’re trying to do something that makes an impact. At the end of the day, they’re a less desirable destination than some other places that are also looking to improve, but I think the Reds will end up with someone more interesting than Ervin Santana

Jeff Sullivan: And yeah, Dallas Keuchel would be one of those options. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Reds win those sweepstakes

Jeff Sullivan: The club can hit. Prospects are coming. Not hard to see the Reds pushing for .500 in a crowded division

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Are you surprised the Twins signed Jonathan Schoop rather than coming to terms with Brian Dozier? Or is the four year age difference and a changing front office enough to move past being the most sentimental franchise in the bigs?

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, age is a big part. Maybe the Twins feel like they can help Schoop figure things out more than the Orioles could. Also, perhaps Dozier wasn’t available right now for one year. And furthermore, it can feel a little weird to arrange a reunion just months after an emotional farewell. Some teams prefer to just avoid those situations entirely

John: At what point do we go from referring to 2018 as “this season” to “last season,” and from referring to 2019 as “next season” to “this season”?

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s when the calendar flips. It’s very annoying

Operation Shutdown: Is Max Scherzer’s contract the best big-money pitcher contract ever?  Do you see any recent SP signings living up to their deals as well as Scherzer did?

Jeff Sullivan: Still a few years to go but obviously Scherzer has been an incredible investment. The first big Kershaw contract worked out well. So has the Verlander contract for the most part. The Hamels contract hasn’t been terrible

Jeff Sullivan: Hard to expect any recent big signings to do what Scherzer has done, since Scherzer has been exceptional. Someone like Corbin could be that guy, but there’s absolutely no way of knowing right now whether his arm will hold together

Jake: What do you think attendance is going to look like at Safeco next year?

Jeff Sullivan: N/A. There won’t be a Safeco next year

Jeff Sullivan: (This is a stupid half-joke about the naming rights)

Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners were dreadful in 2011, after being dreadful in 2010. In 2012, they drew 1.7 million in paid attendance

Jeff Sullivan: I’d expect 1.8 – 2.0 million. Some carryover from this year’s success, even despite the teardown

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Let’s say Kyler Murray decides to enter the NFL draft after the conclusion of a great senior season at QB for Oklahoma, and gets picked pretty high in the first round (probably guaranteeing him more $$$ than his #9 pick signing bonus would) Would he have to forfeit his signing bonus with the A’s if he decides to play football? Is there a way he could plausibly make the “2 sport star” thing work?

Jeff Sullivan: If this helps:

Jeff Sullivan: “The Oakland A’s, in an unheard of agreement, allowed their first-round draft pick to play one season of college football. Not only that, but Murray inked a $4.66 million signing bonus. The money is his no matter how his baseball career begins or ends.”

Jeff Sullivan: from https://newsok.com/article/5614427/ou-football-kyler-murrays-baseball-…

Jeff Sullivan: On the other hand: https://www.sfchronicle.com/athletics/article/Kyler-Murray-s-agent-A-s…

Jeff Sullivan: “Boras firmly told The Chronicle on Thursday that the A’s top draft pick will fulfill his commitment to Oakland despite speculation he might elect for the NFL draft instead.”

Jeff Sullivan: But wait!

Jeff Sullivan: “Should Murray opt out of his contract with the A’s, he would have to repay the $4.66 million signing bonus in full.”

Jeff Sullivan: That contradicts the first excerpt I posted

Jeff Sullivan: I do not think the two-sport-star idea is plausible. Each individual sport is unbelievably demanding, and he’d get next to no time to allow his body to rest. And that ignores all the problems that would arise from what would happen in August through October

TFS: Which top player(s) do you think will get traded at the winter meetings?

Jeff Sullivan: Feels like it’s time for one of the Indians’ starters, and probably Bauer in that event

Jeff Sullivan: Not at all hard to see Van Wagenen making his push for Realmuto

Jeff Sullivan: Some chance the Diamondbacks move quickly with Greinke, partially paying him down

Jeff Sullivan: But remember that the end of the winter meetings isn’t any kind of deadline. The winter meetings don’t make moves more likely. Even though they’re in the same place, all the teams are isolated in their suites, so it’s not practically different from being in their own offices around the country

Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if we might be nearing a Manny Machado surprise. Bryce Harper is going to take forever to find a destination, but Machado might go fast and soon

Bill G: Hi Jeff.  Thanks as always for doing these chats.  I agree that the primary issue in baseball is strikeouts.  I am OK with the shift of players in the infield, however I do not like the second baseman playing short right field.  A line drive over the infield is not penalized for a RHB, but the LHB is penalized by the line drive.  What is your opinion?  Thanks.

Jeff Sullivan:

Jeff Sullivan: It would be easy enough to draft a rule where a specific number of players have to be on the dirt or on the grass, but then you’d be outlawing four- or two-man outfields. I don’t think baseball has a problem here. At least not yet. The shifts have only exploded over the past five or six years. Give batters time to adjust

Dave: What teams do you think are pressing the hardest for Bauer/Kluber?

Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers make a lot of sense

Jeff Sullivan: Rays exist as some kind of dark horse

Jeff Sullivan: Padres would also be a dark horse, at least for Kluber

Jeff Sullivan: Yankees still want a starter but I don’t know how much more subtraction they want to do from the farm

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Let’s pretend the Rays move to Portland. How do you think divisions are restructured? Sorry…Travis isn’t here to ask anymore.

Jeff Sullivan: Assuming the same format is preserved (which is hardly a guarantee): Rays –> AL West, Rangers or Astros –> AL Central, Indians –> AL East

Jeff Sullivan: The Indians are almost a natural fit in the East anyway. The Rays are exceptional, being so far south

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if baseball would be more likely to move the Astros because they’ve already moved, or less likely to move the Astros because it’s just another annoyance

Poised: There’s a lot of similarities between last offseason’s Christian Yellich and this offseason’s Mitch Haniger. Both corner OF, same age, 3+ years of control, coming off a 4.6 win season, both career 130 wRC+ hitters. Would a Mitch Haniger trade look similar to what the Yellich trade looked like? Yellich had more history of success, while Haniger has an additional year of control.

Jeff Sullivan: Yelich was traded going into his age-26 season. Haniger is going into his age-28 season

Jeff Sullivan: And while Haniger has four more years of team control, Yelich had up to five, including a club option, plus the cost control of a guaranteed long-term contract

Jeff Sullivan: Then you throw in the fact that Yelich at least has the perception of having greater upside, which I do think is fair

Jeff Sullivan: Haniger is good, and underrated, and if he were traded the Mariners would get a haul back, but I think Haniger’s trade value now is below where Yelich was last season. Fairly significant gap, as well

Giganthony: Volcano or Dante’s Peak?

Jeff Sullivan: Dante’s Peak for the visuals, Volcano for a more accurate portrayal of the behavior of lava

Jeff Sullivan: Old one from a friend of mine: https://www.wired.com/2012/11/your-guide-to-volcanoes-in-movies/

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Some talk has emerged of CIN coming onto the contending scene this year – where is the room for that in 2019? Every division rival is decent to excellent…just wondering where the wins are going to come from. Big time regression from several NLC teams?

Jeff Sullivan: I think the Reds figure they’ll hit enough. And Senzel could be ready to make a difference at any moment. Right now he might even project as the Hamilton replacement in CF

Jeff Sullivan: The bullpen is good enough and the rotation has more talent than you might remember. Still needs help. Lots of help. But the organization is sick of being down in the basement and they can push to be respectable. Like you observe, it’s already a crowded division, so wins will be hard to come by, but you can see an 80-win roster which is better than what’s been out there the last while

Jeff Sullivan: You can only bide your time for so long. Can’t always wait for the perfect moment to strike

Larry the Cable: Who would you want for the next 2 years from 2 players who seemed to have a similar breakout last year and play the same position: Muncy or Aguilar? Both hit 35 bombs, Muncy had 100 less AB but his ratios were way better. Both are 28. Interesting comparison.

Jeff Sullivan: Muncy. I think he has the better approach

Jeff Sullivan: Both players were amazing in the first half, but after the break, Muncy ran a 149 wRC+. Aguilar was down at 101

Jeff Sullivan: I do think there’s a chance Muncy won’t make enough contact to keep it going, but I like him as the safer bet

JPK: Which of the top free agents are most likely to sign at the Winter Meetings?

Jeff Sullivan: I think Pollock makes a decision

Jeff Sullivan: I definitely think we see a run on relievers, like Miller, Robertson, Ottavino

Jeff Sullivan: Does JA Happ count as a top free agent?

Rays Fans: What is the kind of signing or trade that the Rays could make to put them in the position to steal the division? We’re thinking an under-the-radar reliever.

Jeff Sullivan: Hear me out here. This could be stupid but there’s an opportunity!

Jeff Sullivan: If Cot’s is close to correct right now, the Rays have a projected opening-day payroll of…$36 million

Jeff Sullivan: Last year was $76 million

Jeff Sullivan: Clearly, there’s a lot of money to spend. The young players will eventually get more expensive, but let’s say there’s a two-year window of spending to play with

Jeff Sullivan: No guarantees you can get the free agents you want, but 1) trade for Jose Martinez, 2) sign Charlie Morton for big money and two years, and 3) sign Andrew Miller for big money and two years

Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure there are under-the-radar players out there who are available, but given where the Rays are right now, they don’t have to out-think themselves if they don’t want to

Jeff Sullivan: Still wouldn’t be as good as the Red Sox or Yankees, but it would be a very solid and mostly complete active roster

Tyler: If they remove the shift from baseball, what incentive would there be to not sell out even more for power?  knowing that if you roll over it there is an even greater chance that it can get through a hole now.  With velo where it is, getting rid of the shift is not going to change how hitters approach an at bat.

Jeff Sullivan: I agree with you https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/banning-the-shift-is-a-solution-in-sea…

Jeff Sullivan: Clearly, hitters now are still willing to sell out for power, but banning the shift would eliminate a disincentive for doing so

Jeff Sullivan: Even if players themselves didn’t necessarily make dramatic adjustments to their approaches, teams would be more willing to target pull hitters in a shift-less future

greg: Joey Votto began his 10yr $225M extension in the ’14 season and has accumulated 23.3 WAR since then.  He’s got to be pretty close to earning every bit of that, right?

Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much

Jeff Sullivan: Every big contract looks worse at the end than at the start, and the Reds have wasted the start of this deal, but little of that is Votto’s fault

Jeff Sullivan: It’s like Cano. Deal’s worked out fine. Too bad about everything else

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Trading for Goldy is probably one of the few ways STL had to improve their roster, but supposing they went with the “peak offense” lineup (Carp @ 3rd, JMart in the OF, etc) that’s going to lead to some hilariously bad defensive arrangements, yeah?

Jeff Sullivan: In a world where Rhys Hoskins was an everyday left fielder, anything’s possible

Jeff Sullivan: In Carpenter’s defense, I don’t think he’s *dreadful* out there. But he’s not getting any younger

Sir Nerdlington: I strongly dislike the imbalanced schedule.  That is all.

Jeff Sullivan: The NL East is going to have four competitive teams. The NL Central might even get up to *five* competitive teams. The NL West has the Dodgers, and a Rockies team that’s fine but that also just overachieved

Jeff Sullivan: The Indians have it so freakin easy

Anthony: Why is MLB now concerned about attendance, after pushing for smaller ballparks in downtown locations?

Jeff Sullivan: Because it’s not like the smaller downtown ballparks are filled to capacity

Dave: Schwarber & Happ for Kluber, who says no?

Jeff Sullivan: Guessing the Indians don’t want to add a couple of giant strikeout rates

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it would be a *terrible* trade, but I don’t think it’s what the Indians are looking for

TKDC: Let’s say there was a rule that said that if Mike Trout is playing, you have to play with 8 players. So your lineup is 8 players and you play 8 guys in the field. If you replace him during the game, you get 2 guys. Would Trout still be valuable to a team?

Jeff Sullivan: Does that mean the lineup includes an automatic out, or is it just shorter?

Jeff Sullivan: If the former, it’s a deal-breaker. If the latter, that part’s not bad at all

Jeff Sullivan: Now the defensive limitation would obviously hurt, and I don’t have any good numbers in front of me, but I think it would still be workable. You’d have to have a good amount of defensive versatility, and you’d effectively cut some wins off of Trout’s value, but I think he stays an above-average player

Jeff Sullivan: Instead of having, say, a third baseman and a left fielder, maybe you have a fast “rover” who plays kind of between where the two players would play normally

Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Is there any way that I can look up the total WAR produced by the players drafted and signed by a particular team over a particular time span?

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t think of anywhere that makes it really easy, but Baseball Reference does provide this https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Troy Tulowitzki said, “I’m a shortstop…if someone is better than me, I’ll pack my bags and go home.” Is there a better dream scenario for Ross Atkins?!

Jeff Sullivan: I just interpret that to mean Tulowitzki is strongly incentivized to not believe another shortstop is better than him

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Since high velo is usually the culprit in arm injuries for pitchers, has there been any research on how fast kids are throwing these days? Is there a little leaguer throwing 80 already? What’s an ideal velo for 12, 13 year olds to throw?

Jeff Sullivan: I’m not the person to ask. I have no idea

Jeff Sullivan: But as injuries go, I think the problem isn’t so much high velocity as it is throwing at 100% over and over

Jeff Sullivan: For some guys, 100% is 100 miles per hour. For other guys, 100% is 90 miles per hour. Your arm can only take what it can take

Jeff Sullivan: For Brent Suter, 100% was 87 miles per hour. Turns out it was too much

Gob: Is Brock Holt following the Daniel Murphy/Justin Turner career path?

Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, since Murphy and Turner are contact hitters, and the “powerful” version of Holt saw an increase in swings and misses

Jeff Sullivan: But I do think it’s going to be interesting to monitor Holt’s progress this season, should he get the chance to play enough

Hamboy: Please tell me I’m stupid but would Kyle Seager, $10MM and a lower level prospect to STL for Dexter Fowler (and his contract) and Ryan Helsley be a reasonable trade? “Who says no”, as the kids say.

Jeff Sullivan: Seager is due $71 million over four years, assuming he’d pick up his 2022 option (which becomes a player option if he’s traded)

Jeff Sullivan: Fowler is due something like $50 million over three years

Jeff Sullivan: With that $10 million you included, the money is almost exactly even

Jeff Sullivan: Fowler is older by a year and a half

Jeff Sullivan: They both project for basically the same hitting

Jeff Sullivan: I can see why the Mariners might think about it, kind of, since Ben Gamel isn’t great. And Helsley is a real prospect. I’m less sure why the Cardinals would do it, since they have no use for Seager now with Carpenter lined up to play third

Jeff Sullivan: Do you move Carpenter to second and replace Wong?

Jeff Sullivan: Fowler is dead money, but at least he could bounce back at a position where they need more help. They’re pretty well covered in the infield

Nick: Hi Jeff! The main article on the ESPN MLB page this morning is “Kluber for Schwarber” and argues that Kluber for Schwarber+Happ is a trade in which Cleveland would come out ahead, citing things like Schwarber is “at the very least” a 3-win player now. My Cleveland homer-ism aside, that’s a ridiculous proposal for a player with Kluber’s surplus value, right?

Jeff Sullivan: I get the appeal of trading for two proven young major-league players in Schwarber and Happ. I just don’t think it’s sufficiently appealing

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Does Carlos Martinez re-emerge as a member of STL’s starting rotation, or is he strictly a ‘pen arm moving forward?

Jeff Sullivan: Starter unless he proves he can’t do it anymore

Outta my way, Gyorkass: What are your general expectations for Jimmy Nelson this year?

Jeff Sullivan: My expectations are low, but my interest level is high. Really badly hoping he’s fully recovered, because his breakout was one of the most impressive in recent pitching history

Jeff Sullivan: Let it not be forgotten that, if Nelson is healthy, the Brewers have an ace!

Brodie’s wild ride: If the Mets do trade for Kluber or Bauer, what do you think a package would look like? What about other teams that have been connected to the starters like the Reds?

Jeff Sullivan: I could see the Indians being jazzed by the idea of trading for Brandon Nimmo. I like him as more of a long-term outfielder than Schwarber/Happ

Jeff Sullivan: Nimmo would help cover much of the loss right away, and he has four years of team control ahead

Jeff Sullivan: If the Reds got involved, I could see something building around like Shed Long and Jose Siri

Jeff Sullivan: That’s presumably not enough on its own, but you could build it out

Nicky: Have MLB players outgrown the baseball field? They are throwing the ball harder than ever, hitting the ball harder than ever, and there’s no reason to think their (league average) athleticism will ever decline. We might have to readjust the size of baseball field for those  players. Crazy idea?

Jeff Sullivan: I think most of the dimensions are fine. If anything is urgent, it’s moving back the mound a foot or three

Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers aren’t going to start throwing slower

AJ Preller: Now that Syndergaard’s off the table, how can I use my outfielders to get Bauer?

Jeff Sullivan: You ask how excited the Indians would be about Margot

Jeff Sullivan: Not the right time to trade Cordero, and I think Reyes is liked in San Diego

Kristen: How amenable would DET be to throwing in prospects if my Rangers offered to take Zimmerman off their hands?

Jeff Sullivan: While I’m sure the Tigers would like to be rid of that contract, it’s not like they’re about to be buyers or anything, and ZImmermann only has two years left. Doubt the Tigers are too motivated to subtract from the farm

Larry the Cable: Did the NL East just become the most exciting Division to watch, if they weren’t already? Every team seems to be trending for an over .500 season rather easily and continuing to make more moves to improve.

Jeff Sullivan:

Jeff Sullivan: Fun division, but the AL East and NL Central should also be great

DBRuns: Does Bryce Harper get $300+ million? The Corbin deal seemingly takes the Nats out of the sweepstakes. The Yankees already have one $300 million contract on their books. I don’t see the Dodgers handing that kind of money to a guy who only exceeded 1.5 bWAR twice in the last five years. I think Harper falls way short of that threshold. Agree?

Jeff Sullivan: I think he finds it somewhere. Boras has been building for this moment for years

Bearry: Yandy Diaz, Encarnacion, and Bauer to the Rays makes a ton of sense… Fills two all-star sized holes, has years of control baked in, and offers some real upside in Yandy. Sign me up.

Jeff Sullivan: Just a question of how willing the Rays are to move prospect capital, as opposed to just signing free agents

Jeff Sullivan: Granted, if the Rays sign any free agents, they’ll have to shed from the 40-man roster. Something could stand to be done to consolidate value

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days