Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 12/16/14

December 16, 2014

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I suppose it’s time to baseball chat

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, it is indeed time to do that

9:04	Comment From Xolo How many wins better do Kemp AND Upton make the Padres?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Well, not enough, would be one of my answers

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: What do the Padres give up to get Upton?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Working a little in their favor, perhaps, is that neither the Diamondbacks nor Rockies are particularly good, and the Giants might be kind of stuck. But the Padres need more help than two above-average outfielders can give them

9:05	Comment From Michael It is time to make the chat scroll in the other direction. 🙁

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I thought I did! God dammit

9:05	Comment From Art Vandelay Does Ichiro play baseball next year?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Yes, he’ll get a job

9:05	Comment From Mooking for Love Hey! If the moon was made of cheese, would ya eat it?

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: I would probably try a small part of it if it were presented to me but it is a real big moon and it’s super far away

9:06	Comment From Gob What are the odds that Danny Hultzen becomes the pitcher we thought he might be before the shoulder injury – 5%? 1%?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what you thought he might be, but let’s say 10-15%

9:06	Comment From $10M down the tubes? How many innings do the Dodgers get out of Brett Anderson this season?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: 75?

9:06	Comment From Walt if the Reds don’t sign Nori Aoki do they go ahead and blow up the rest of the team? not sure what else they can do at this point with FA dwindling

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Well, I don’t think the fate of any team ought to hinge on acquiring or not acquiring Norichika Aoki

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: But, yes, they do have an absolutely gaping hole with no real organizational depth. If not Aoki, maybe they try, like, Rasmus in a corner, or they can make a little trade. Nothing impactful is going to fill that spot

9:08	Comment From Michael “No Re” Morse Ok, ok: so they didn’t resign Markakis or Cruz or pick up Melky or Morse for seemingly reasonable contracts. What’s left for the O’s? I feel delusional rooting for us to sign Rasmus…

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if they’re a team that would give a shot to Corey Hart to see if he’s found his legs again

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Alternatively, there are trade options in San Diego in Smith and Quentin who probably wouldn’t cost very much

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: And, yeah, the Rasmus thing. I tell you what, it is possible to do worse than Colby Rasmus on a short contract

9:11	Comment From Tarvis Are the Red Sox going to Orioles route with their rotation or do you think a bigger splash is coming?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Red Sox will have a bunch more conversations related to top-tier pitchers, but I also think they’d be content to go forward with the current staff if they don’t like the market prices

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: What you’d like the Red Sox to have is more depth. I’m sure they’re not done trying to get Cole Hamels

9:13	Comment From Matt Jeff, if you’re Epstoyer, what left on the trade/FA mkts interest you for an OF piece-given their supposedly tight remaining budget? Fowler? Rasmus?Gomes?

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: None of those would surprise me. I guess Rasmus would surprise me a little, since it was reported yesterday or the day before the Cubs don’t have a lot of interest, and I’m guessing some other team is going to act more desperately. But I think most teams have the same limited remaining OF options. Yo’ure looking to an empty market, a candidate like Fowler, or a few candidates in San Diego

9:15	Comment From _David_ What would you give up for Upton that Atlanta would accept if you were the Mariners?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t work. Last I heard, Atlanta wanted more than I’d be comfortable offering. Like, I don’t think the Braves have a whole lot of interest in Roenis Elias

9:16	Comment From Will how much better does Melky make the White Sox?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Conveniently, he’s replacing almost a pure 0-WAR player in Viciedo. Viciedo sucks. So Melky makes them better by whatever your Melky projection would be. Mine’s around 2 – 2.5 wins

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I like him a good deal more than I like LaRoche

9:17	Comment From Alex I don’t get what the Astros are doing. Do you? Lowrie, Neshek, Gregerson.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Well, there are a few different ways to go here

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: Most simply, the Astros have money and if you don’t invest that money in even a pretty bad team, people are going to complain and hate your on-field product. The Astros can’t run a payroll of 25 league minimums, so they’ve worked to improve the left side of a lousy infield, and they’ve worked to improve what’s lately been a lousy bullpen

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: The Dave perspective would be that, hey, during the year effective relievers get strong markets, so the Astros could try to flip Gregerson and/or Neshek for a prospect or two. With so many decent teams, there aren’t going to be many sellers. If the Astros are a seller, it’ll be a seller’s market

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: And Lowrie is useful. He’s not a shortstop, but the Astros don’t have a shortstop, and to be honest they don’t really have a third baseman either. So Lowrie can just hang around and help his local ballclub until Correa is ready, and then the Astros can evaluate Matt Dominguez

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: What’s weird to me isn’t that Lowrie signed with Houston; what’s weird to me is that another team didn’t offer more. Like, a team that isn’t bad

9:21

Comment From Michael
Given that (a) Porcello seems to like the Northeast and (b) the Red Sox do not have many pitchers of Porcello’s caliber under long-term contract, it would seem to make sense for the two sides to work out a contract extension. I invite you to speculate on what financial terms might be agreeable to both sides in such an extension.

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: If I were the Red Sox, I’d start at, say, 4/60, and then prepare for a little wiggle room

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Ervin Santana just got, what, 4/55? For Porcello, 4/65 might do it

9:23	Comment From Jack Who do you like better at 2nd going forward: Miller or Odor? Trying to figure out who the Nats should really go after?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I’m a bigger fan of Miller, but it seems like the Mariners aren’t going to move him now that all the outfielders are pretty much off the table. Which means Odor is the more likely get for Washington

9:25	Comment From mtsw Judging by the Orioles last two offseasons, is not signing any players the new market inefficiency?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Nelson Cruz and Ubaldo Jimenez?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: But more to the general point, I do think the Orioles understand that free agency is just about the worst place to try to improve

9:26

Comment From DoolittleFan60
Thanks as always Jeff for your insighst. The Yankees seem to have two players, Headley and Prado, would could be quite good, or they could stink. Do you think their best years were just outliers, or have injuries (esp. to Headley) obscured their real talent, and can they bounce back?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: Prado and Headley have both been steadily above-average hitters. I wouldn’t worry about either one of them suddenly sucking real bad in 2015. Now, in 2012, they were worth a combined 13 wins, and I think those are certain outlier seasons, but they aren’t around because the Yankees think they’ll get back to what they were three years ago. They’re around because the Yankees like them as average or above-average infielders

9:27	Comment From _David_ It seems the Mariners are missing the mid-range RF candidates…If they really are drawing hard lines against trading certain players, could we see some horrific scenario involving Viciedo, Jones, or Romero?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners don’t want Viciedo, they know Jones can’t hit, and they know Romero can’t really field. Right now I think they go with Miller, and they’ll find some relatively cheap right-handed complement

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Now, it’s possible they accept Viciedo for nothing and basically pay him as a platoon guy for one year, but I don’t think they stoop to that level

9:29	Comment From DaN Why do you think the Royals took Rios over Aoki?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I’m guessing Aoki is set up to require a greater commitment than the Royals were willing to give. Aoki’s 33 in a month, and he’s going to take multiple years. At least with Rios, he has a fine enough track record and it’s all off the books next November

9:30	Comment From Doug what in the heck are the reds going to do in left field in 2015?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Suck

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: At least, that’s the current outlook. They’ll do something but it won’t be very good

9:30	Comment From Bruce Whats going on in the picture?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Something better than the default Cover It Live pictures

9:31	Comment From _David_ Am I correct in thinking Brad Miller would have to be 15 runs better in RF relative to positional peers than at SS in order to retain value in a switch?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Roughly, yeah, to retain the same value. That’s what the positional adjustments say. But then, Miller is young and something like an average defensive shortstop, so we should *expect* him to be a good outfielder. Moving Miller would be bad for his trade value down the road, but if the Mariners intend to keep him for the long haul, this is a fine use of resources. He doubles as Chris Taylor insurance

9:32	Comment From L. Scott Happy holidays! If Troy Tulowitzki is indeed on the block, wouldn’t a vast majority of teams make an offer to CO including a replacement SS, a couple of stud pitching prospects, and a power prospect? Point is, why would just the Mets be involved in a possible Tulo trade?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: If the Rockies were having serious conversations about Tulowitzki, the Mets would not be the only team involved

9:33	Comment From _David_ What do you make of reporters saying everyone in the industry believes the Saunders trade was even? Even if you see them as equal players, it was still 2 years for one, so Happ would have to be quite a bit better, right?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Apparently a lot of people in the game see Happ as possessing rising stock. They think he’s got real upside, and so, you take that for what it’s worth

9:34	Comment From Tice Think there is any trade market for Cliff Lee before Spring Training?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: nope

9:35	Comment From Scherzer, Scherzer, $200 million for a pitcher with 1 career complete game? I guess they are selling it as ‘low wear and tear’. Do you think this comes into play at all?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Last year there were half as many complete games as there were in 2000

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Felix, in 2014, had zero complete games. Cole Hamels had zero complete games. Zack Greinke, Alex Cobb, Stephen Strasburg, Jose Quintana…

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Nobody cares. Most of the time, complete games are a little bit stupid

9:36	Comment From Nick Do the Rockies make ANY trades for SP or RP?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: They traded for Jairo Diaz!

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: !!!

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I could easily see the Rockies dealing an outfielder or Wilin Rosario for an arm or two

9:39	Comment From mtsw Is whatever stadium one day replaces Coors Field going to be a pressurized dome?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: I kind of hope so, and I kind of hope not. I like that baseball has such a wacky environment in it, but then it’s also hell on pitchers and, half of the time, hitters, so I feel like it’s something that needs to be balanced out in a way that doesn’t just rely on a humidor

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Basically the Rockies could play in a giant stationary airplane

9:40	Comment From mtsw More likely: O’s sign no one or O’s sign Scherzer?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: O’s sign no one

9:40	Comment From Dan Does Tulo end up getting moved? If so for what?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Not this offseason, I don’t think

9:41	Comment From Cal Apparently Morse has a 2yr/$8M deal with the Marlins. Is it just me or is this really cheap for a legit righty power bat? Also, how good of a chance do the Marlins have to compete for the NL East title next year after the moves they’ve made?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I’d rather have Morse for 2/8 than Morales for 2/17 or Cruz for 4/58

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s a *great* deal, just because of Morse’s injury history and lack of defensive ability anywhere, but that’s a cheaper deal than I expected him to find on the market so in that sense I think the Marlins did fine. They’re still not going to win the NL East, but I think they’re gunning for second place and the wild card

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Of course, we’ll see if the Nationals make themselves worse. If the Nats trade Zimmermann for a longer-term asset, that’ll make the Marlins’ odds better by a few points

9:43	Comment From Rick What would you rather the White Sox do?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I like what the White Sox have done. Not so much the LaRoche part, but I don’t have a problem with a team trying to contend with a core already in place. I just think they’re still not a great contender

9:45	Comment From Dan How much does James Shields end up getting?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: either, say, 4/70 or 5/90

9:46	Comment From TKDC Right now, the Braves are projected at 32 WAR according to Zips projections on this website. The A’s are at 30 WAR. Is it possible that Fangraph’s puts too much stock in Steamer because it is the first projection out? This might apply to the White Sox too.

9:47

Jeff Sullivan: Well, we can only use what we have, and for the time being our only complete data set is Steamer’s. It will be valuable to have ZiPS so we can go with our 50/50 blend, and yeah, that’ll change the picture some. But ZiPS isn’t really better than Steamer, so I don’t think it makes sense to prefer one over the other.

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: It does seem like Steamer is a little high on the A’s, because of its Lawrie projection (and more), but a few wins doesn’t change too much. And I don’t think anyone’s written the Braves totally off. They just haven’t improved, and they’re still looking to trade Justin Upton

9:49	Comment From Guy Better signing, considering money and health and everything: Brett Anderson or Brandon Morrow?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I think Anderson returns more WAR, and I think Morrow returns a better ratio of WAR to salary. So I think Anderson makes more sense for the Dodgers, and Morrow makes more sense for the Padres, than vice versa

9:49	Comment From Jason With so many teams looking to contend in 2015 and wanting RH power, would any team take a chance on Alex Rodriguez for the league minimum if he was released by the Yankees?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: 99% sure the answer is no

9:50	Comment From DaN Are the Tigers done with big moves? …Max?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I sense they’re basically done. They’ll try on Scherzer, but I don’t think they’ll try enough

9:51	Comment From Jack Nats should have signed Lowrie. Now I’m not sure what they do for the whole at 2nd base. I’d go after Miller, Odor or Alcantra..can you help me order them in order of what would be the best decision for the Nats.

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I can totally see the Nats going down the path of acquiring Odor. It’s felt right for several weeks

9:51	Comment From National League Does the fact that Jon Lester will not throw to first base for pickoffs play any differently in the NL?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Now he shares a division with Billy Hamilton

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: But the Cubs will presumably work with Lester on his running-game control in spring training.

9:52	Comment From Xolo How realistic is it that the Padres just shift Seth Smith to first?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Not unrealistic

9:53	Comment From Daniel How low is Brandon Phillips’ trade value? Wondering how much the Reds would have to eat for a team like the ChiSox to be interested.

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s more likely the White Sox would get Phillips during the season, not during the offseason. I don’t think the Reds want to keep stripping away parts yet

9:54	Comment From Larry Bernandez How did a 3.5 win player only net 13MM a year?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Headley had a bigger offer somewhere else, probably from Oakland, and he settled for less money to remain in an environment that he likes

9:55	Comment From Matt Who would you like to see get 5th spot in Cub rotation among Turner, Wada, Doubront, T Wood, and EJax? Suspect Wood and EJax may not be in that discussion by spring, though.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Wada would be my choice

9:56	Comment From DDSP are the marlins a playoff team?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think they’re a top-5 NL team, but they’re probably a top…7 NL team, so in that way, they’re not meaningfully far away from being a playoff team

9:57	Comment From Bo Knows Carlos Quentin is essentially a less healthy Matt Kemp, right?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Not after Quentin’s 2014

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: People now are wondering whether Quentin’s career is just toast

9:57	Comment From deezy Having established himself as an annual 5 WAR player and with only 7.5 owed next season, should the Rays be able to beat the return the Angels got for Kendrick (Heaney) if they choose to trade him?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Zobrist?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, the Rays should be able to do better than Heaney

9:58	Comment From mtsw Do certain players play especially good or bad in certain weather conditions? Do we have any data on this?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Not good data. Too many variables. But we can say, for example, hitters do worse in cold weather, and pitchers do worse in warm weather. Everybody sucks in snow

9:59	Comment From Cal Do the Jays need a true #1 to seriously contend next season? Or is their rotation good enough as constructed right now?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Could be better; is good enough. Would James Shields count as a true #1? Do you think James Shields is going to pitch markedly better next year than Marcus Stroman?