Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 4/27/18

April 27, 2018

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:08	Rock Kickass: Would you trust Snell v Boston or Godley v Washington tonight?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: I know that this is a fantasy question, but regardless, Snell and Godley are good pitchers, and so I would trust them both

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Probably Godley more given how the Nationals are presently shorthanded

9:09	(not that) James: When you’re looking for new topics to write Acuña, how do generate ideas? Like, do you just read through Acuña to get an idea of what happened that day, Acuña do you think more long- Acuña? I’m just Acuña in your Acuña-making Acuña. Acuña.

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Sometimes I know exactly what to do off the top of my Albies, but other times — and this is when it gets desperate — I just spent Albies upon Albies scrolling through various Albies, until I find Albies vaguely worthy of 1000 Albies

9:10

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I was looking at hot players so far and dismissing them all as unsustainably lucky, but Daniel Robertson stood out. H’s been worth 1.1 WAR in 67 PAs. He has a 195 wRC+. Walks are up, Ks are down. Of course he’s been lucky (.457 BABIP) but he still has a .413 xwOBA so far. Are we witnessing the birth of a plus infielder?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Kind of related to this: right now, the Rays have a 104 team wRC+. That ranks them 9th in baseball!

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: They also have the highest team BABIP, so, you know, there’s that, but this isn’t a bad baseball team. I’m delighted to see them string together a bunch of wins

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: As for Robertson, his approach kind of reminds me of Logan Forsythe, who had some success with Tampa. He doesn’t have plus power, but he seems to be reasonable across the board

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: It’s hard for me to take Robertson too seriously when Joey Wendle and Mallex Smith also have high batting lines, but this is exactly what the Rays have been trying to do — mix and match and build around flexibility so that everyone on the roster is put in as good a position as possible to succeed

9:15	42: Good morning, Jeff. Is something wrong with Anthony Rizzo?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: He’s already been on and off the DL with a back problem. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he’s just struggling to regain his normal flexibility

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: While back problems aren’t the most encouraging thing for a player to experience, I would assume that Rizzo will shortly put this behind him

9:17	James: Do teams use analytics on umpires? Seems like this could be exploited if umpires have clear tendencies.

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Some do

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: And some private player consultants do

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: But I don’t think it’s particularly widespread, because it’s a tremendously difficult thing to successfully exploit

9:19	Rock Kickass: Should the Phillies try and get Kelly from the Cards? Alfaro and Knapp aren’t the answer.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not giving up on Alfaro that fast

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Nor are the Cardinals looking to move Kelly away, probably

9:19	Keefths: You prefer owning Candelario or Teoscar ?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: It’s 2018. We don’t own people

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: But, boy, is Teoscar Hernandez ever exciting

9:20	Garrett: Not a question but: This weekend we get to watch Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge vs. Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout. And yet the best player is Didi Gregorius.

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: 2017 Gregorius: 42% chase rate 2018 Gregorius: 28% chase rate

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Hitting is easy!

9:22	Vegan Man!: Should I be overly concerned with Archer’s slow start? Any indications he’s not in line for some regression towards the mean? Thank you!

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see anything too terribly worrisome. I know these stretches are frustrating and they can be some cause for concern, but Archer is good enough to figure this out. He’s still missing plenty of bats, throwing basically his normal arrangement of stuff

9:23	Jacob deGrom: Am I going to win the Cy Young this year?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: But congratulations on being good anyway

9:24	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: What are the three “easiest wins” that MLB or individual teams can do to increase fan experience? I have to think that changing MLB.TV blackout rules would be the easiest win, right?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if that’s actually so easy given the existing TV contracts

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure, on background, pretty much everyone would agree it’s a problem, but it’s tricky to change when you’ve got these TV companies pouring in billions of dollars

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: From just a plain old social-media perspective, MLB needs to loosen up and allow people to freely share GIFs and video clips

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: That’s a niche interest, but it’s simple. All they’d have to do is literally nothing!

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: I love that the A’s had a free game, and that the Orioles are offering kids free tickets in the upper deck. Want to see a lot more of those kinds of promotions, especially on weekdays with horribly low projected attendance

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: And maybe every so often a team could offer half-price concessions or something. I know implementation can be hard and maybe the team would operate at a loss, but there need to be more chances for families to afford to go to the ballpark. It’s the in-park experience that sells people on the sport in the first place

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: And it’s not just families, of course. Also just regular fans who aren’t in the upper middle class

9:32	Edward: Have any thoughts on Vince Velasquez? Seems like it’s a lot of bad luck so far, but I’ve also never been as enamored with him as most.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Whenever Velasquez comes up, my instinct is always to be skeptical. But it’s not grounded in the numbers, because his numbers are fine. Maybe even better than that. You can’t strike out that many batters and be a bad pitcher

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: My skepticism is all about his ability to remain a healthy starting pitcher, and that’s based on his own history. But the Phillies are aware of the history, and they’ll treat him with caution. Let’s just say he’s a good starting pitcher to have in the Gabe Kapler era

9:36	Pablo: Why can’t Lucas Giolito strike anybody out? What has changed since spring training?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably time for me to revisit this subject, since he looked so damn good a month or whenever ago

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: In the regular season he’s been one of the very worst starting pitchers around

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: His arm slot is still lowered, although it’s gotten a little higher. I think he just had his best velocity of the season, yesterday, against the Royals

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: But the arm action doesn’t seem right. I kind of hate what Giolito does with his front leg. These are just strange mechanics, and it sure looks to my eye like Giolito is consistently overthrowing

9:39	Dokken: Trevor Story is now a top 3 SS? 250/350/520 5/5 SB and great in defense. Walking more, striking out less and hitting bombs. Will you finally admit he is elite? Oh… And he is as fast as BillyH.

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Even in this season, Trevor Story is ninth among shortstops in WAR

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: And I don’t care what his sprint speed is relative to Billy Hamilton, considering Hamilton is a proven elite baserunner, and Story is not

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Sprint speed is only one aspect of running the bases

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Story looks like his normal self. Maybe a hair or two better. He’s fine

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: He is elite, in the way that every starter in the major leagues is elite

9:42	Fred Pants: Your take on Ian Happ’s outlook this season? Slow start or cause for concern?

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Happ is being attacked more often up in the zone, and those aren’t pitches he’s easily able to handle. It’s not a problem that’s unique to him, but it’s something he’ll have to learn to lay off. I think he’ll end up an above-average hitter, again, but the strikeouts are going to be there

9:44	Edward: Is Kurt Suzuki a top-ten catcher?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not, but you couldn’t ask for a better backup

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Well, you could, but you’d be hard-pressed to find one

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: You could ask for anything

9:45	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Next Tuesday is 1 May. What storylines from this season will we be talking about on 31 May?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Trading Manny Machado

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: How the Phillies should balance the present against the future

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Shohei Ohtani

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Whether Aaron Judge is seriously almost as valuable as Mike Trout

9:46	42: Are there any long term solutions for the Reds that do not involve multiple top-5 draft picks?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Pitching development. They need to be able to develop their pitchers. Their track record to this point is awful

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: They have young talent in the majors. They have young talent in the minors. The ingredients, for the most part, are there. They seem to be clueless when it comes to putting them together

9:48	45Blows Billygoats: Didi is having quite the start to the season, but if you look at the splits, he’s below average on the road. Can we now put an asterisk behind Yankee like we do Coors Field?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I know you’re just trolling, but, 2017 Gregorius: 81 wRC+ at home, 133 wRC+ on the road

9:49	Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: If he’s able to get back into game shape, how do you see Kang being utilized by the Pirates?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: This one is actually kind of a mystery to me. I don’t think the Pirates expected this, and they’re already so deep in half-decent 2B/3B types

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I’m sure it’s too much to ask for Kang to be able to play much shortstop

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: And Kang is only under contract through the end of this season, with a 2019 club option

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a priority. The team wants to play Moran. The team wants to play Harrison (when healthy) and Freese. Maybe Harrison gets dealt but as long as the Pirates are over .500 that won’t be happening

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Long story short: no idea! Not an easy fit

9:52	Palardelphia: If I told you before the season started, “At the end of April, Rhys Hoskins will be the second best hitter in baseball behind a Yankee”, how many guesses would it take before you brought up Didi Gregorius?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Six?

9:52	Turgid: How are historical defensive values calculated? How accurate should we consider them to be?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Not particularly accurate for individual players in individual seasons, but accurate enough over large samples

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: It’s based on play-by-play data, without modern-day granular details

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: The further back you go, obviously, the less reliable the information

9:54	Willie Calhoun: FREE WILLIE!

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Willie Calhoun is slugging .413 in Triple-A

9:55	Nicky: Do you think any outside companies can set some sort of statcast/trackman at every stadium, and make all the raw data available for public (I guess not for free) in the future?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: What’s the incentive? Where’s the money? There aren’t enough people in the public sphere who would pay much for this

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Plus, the raw data on its own is super hard to interpret, and the existing structure wouldn’t welcome a threat

9:57	stever20: how much of a thing is starting for the first time at Coors Field? I know Darvish struggled some there last weekend. Thinking Ohtani may start there in a couple of weeks so just was wondering- may be a fun topic for an article coinciding with Ohtani’s 1st start there….

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Even worse than ending up in Coors Field for the first time — Eric Lauer was just asked to make his major-league debut in Coors Field

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: It did not go well

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not sure how easily this could be researched. And honestly, I bet the first time isn’t too different from the second time. Between times, you probably forget what it’s like to pitch in thin air