Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 5/1/15

May 1, 2015

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Well, we’ve done it again

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: We’ve successfully opened a live baseball chat, ten minutes after the scheduled beginning

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: One of these weeks, I’m going to be early. Stay on your toes!

9:13

Comment From Julio Pepper
When we say a hitter had a good game, what we really mean is that he got relatively lucky in his 5 or so plate appearances. Similarly, is a “good game” for a pitcher a real thing, or a result of stringing together lucky innings? It looks to me like there are days when pitchers have their stuff or don’t, and people talk this way, but has anybody looked into this?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: The way I think of it, it’s easier to tell if a pitcher has a good game than a hitter. A pitcher goes out and throws 100 pitches or so against a bunch of different guys, while a hitter might see 15-20 pitches and he has no control over what they are or where they go

9:14

Jeff Sullivan: So while *all* single-game analyses are complicated, I think a single start is more revealing than a single game in the lineup. You can evaluate a pitcher just by seeing how he’s locating. What’s the batter equivalent?

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9:15	Comment From Pete How many veteranWAR will Marlon Byrd be worth by the end of the season?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: veteran WAR, or regular WAR?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: By regular WAR, I’d say 0

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: He should be half-decent the rest of the way, that positive gain negated by his early awfulness

9:16	Comment From Chris If the Phillies ate the entire Hamels contract, would Swihart be on the table?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know if the Red Sox would put Swihart on the table, but I would

9:17	Comment From Bren Will MLB ever get to the point where they allow all draft picks to be traded, which seems like a no-brainer?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I think so. They’ve been talking about it for at least like the past decade and a half

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: There are other draft considerations to take care of first, but I believe it has a lot of support within the industry. Kind of weird we haven’t seen it yet

9:18	Comment From Astros in Orbit Is the AL West that bad or are the Astros that good? As a fan of the team, it feels like there is still room for them to be better.

9:19

Jeff Sullivan: Room for every team to be better — no team is perfect. I remember having complaints about the 2001 Mariners. The Astros are legitimately decent. The Angels have big questions about the rotation and lineup, outside of Trout and Richards. The Mariners have big questions about defense and rotation consistency. The A’s have been banged up.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: The Astros ought to be close around deadline time. It’s perfectly fair to now envision them challenging for a wild-card slot.

9:20	Comment From Oren What should the Blue Jays do about their pitching?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Step 1: swap Estrada and Sanchez

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Step 2: call the Brewers

9:20	Comment From Guest Don’t lie to us, you’ll never be early.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be early, but no one else will be 🙁

9:21	Comment From _David _ Alex Jackson is hitting .135 in Class A Clinton…concern?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: DJ Peterson is slugging .246 in Class AA Jackson

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Oh, wait, I bet that didn’t make you feel better

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: (Not concerned. Just aware)

9:22	Comment From Lenard Nice article on Rizzo, Jeff. How many stolen bases do you think he ends up with near the end of the year?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’ll slow down now that teams are aware he’ll take bases, but I think he ends up between 15 – 20

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I still remember the Daniel Murphy example. He stole 20+ bases almost entirely just by being heads-up. Lots of bases are there for the taking if you commit to trying to take them

9:23	Comment From Bruce Travis wood; Hot start, or maybe some imporovement?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Didn’t he do this last year, too?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: He did sort of this last year. Small sample, obviously, but I think he’s benefiting from having a better defensive catcher. He’s getting ahead more, so he’s working less often in hitter-friendly counts

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s a better pitcher, but I think he’s pitching under better circumstances

9:26	Comment From peter how concerning should it be that Xander Bogaerts has an average batted ball velocity near the bottom of the league, similar to Ben Revere, Dee Gordon, and Didi Gregorious?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: That got my attention the other day, too

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: It’s of moderate concern, but then, power isn’t supposed to be Bogaerts’ game — at his offensive peak, he should be disciplined and hit for contact, sending balls toward the gaps.

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: He’s also still the guy who did this: http://m.mlb.com/video/topi…

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: But, I’m not sure he ever develops out of the 10 – 15 dinger range

9:29	Comment From Roman What the hell are the Reds doing with Devin Mesoraco? On a scale from 0-yes, just how stupidly have they handled his hip thing?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: It’s absurd, especially in retrospect

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Now, I don’t think anyone expected him to be out this amount of time when this first popped up. He was supposed to be out a handful of days

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: And they have, if nothing else, used Mesoraco occasionally as a pinch-hitter. But this early in the season, I’m not sure what they were doing. Just give a guy the 15 days. If he was already going to be out for half that long, or thereabouts, just suck it up and let him heal

9:32	Comment From Henry Should I be worried about McCutchen? Part of me is saying that he was about a 90 wRC+ player with a BABIP of .185, but that knee scares me….

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: It looks to me like in the early going he’s having trouble getting around on pitches

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: No kind of meaningful pull-power yet, which could be connected to the lower body, which would have an explanation. I know Dave said these things can linger, and it’s true that they can. Doesn’t mean McCutchen is doomed to going the injured-Votto path, but I would absolutely temper my expectations at least for the next few weeks

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: To make you feel better, here’s a forced personal anecdote:

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: I run, but every so often I get sidelined by a knee thing. About a year ago, I woke up and it was worse than ever. Painful to step on my left leg, actually made me borderline nauseated. Thought it was a big problem! Three days later, all better

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Knees are worrisome, but not every knee thing is a permanent knee thing

9:37	Comment From mtsw My faith in PitchFX and statcast data has been shaken by your work. Has anyone done a systematic study to see how often errors occur in the data?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: You should believe in the data. PITCHf/x has always had errors, but they’re uncommon, and my look was selective for where you’d find errors the most. As for StatCast, there are errors as well, but if you listen to Alan Nathan he’s not convinced those grounders *weren’t* hit really hard.

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Which means the only thing I found was the weird bunt. And it’s so early in the league-wide roll-out that you should expect an error from time to time

9:39	Comment From _David _ Brad Miller has a 108 wRC+ and Chris Taylor continues to mash AAA…what is the next step and when might it occur?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: If Ackley and Jackson continue to suck, I think you could see the Mariners make an in-season step toward turning Miller into a super-utility

9:39	Comment From peter fun with small samples: Jason Marquis is 10th in the league in Contact%

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Used to be #1 🙁

9:39	Comment From Julio Pepper But it has relevance beyond just an entire game. Like, is it smart for a manger to take a guy out after he gets hammered for two innings? Is he actually in doing something like pitching below his usual talent level that day, or has he just been unlucky?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Tango and MGL have talked pretty often about how a good or bad start for a pitcher isn’t real predictive for the rest of the game

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: So it’s up to a manager to conclude whether it’s beneficial to leave a guy out there if he’s struggling. If his stuff isn’t what it usually is, that’s real. If he’s just given up a few extra line drives, he’s probably OK, and just having a rough few minutes

9:41	Comment From Johnson Why hasn’t Giolito pitched yet this year? I don’t see anything about him being injured

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: He’s pitched, but only at a Nationals workout facility. He’ll report somewhere soon. This is the organization trying to control his innings

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Last year he threw 98 and they want to see a gradual progression

9:42	Comment From gump opinion on BPs Start a Franchise With Mookie or Bogaerts?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what you’re talking about, but for me, it’s Mookie

9:42	Comment From Joe Corey Seager to AAA, that dodgers position player depth yo.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers are a MechWarrior in a division of Roombas

9:44	Comment From Conor So is T.J. House pretty much done?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think he’s done done, but I think the Indians are thankful to have Zach McAllister

9:45	Comment From Bigglesworth How long of a leash does Jose Ramirez have before the Indians go to Lindor ?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t have to be Ramirez. Could see Kipnis bumped to another position

9:45	Comment From Larry Bernandez Kipnis = Ackley in terms of general skillset. Agree or disagree.

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Ackley’s got superior defensive skills. Kipnis can hit the ball a little harder

9:46	Comment From Ben Did you know the stolen base and GIDP numbers Altuve put up last year were somewhat historic?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: No, but then, many things are historic if you choose the right constraints

9:47	Comment From Luke Likelihood from 1-10 that Hamels in on the Red Sox by the end of the year?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: 6?

9:47	Comment From Bobby Blownilla Where can I find a list of K-BB? I can’t find it on Fangraphs. thanks!

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: You mean K% – BB% for pitchers? http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: For hitters, you have to do it yourself, if you want to

9:48	Comment From _David _ Austin Jackson is putting up Billy Butler like BSR…how reliable is a month of baserunning? I guess someone who actually gets on base would have a bigger sample, but BSR is a counting stat…

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: A month barely means anything. He’s at -1 run. Been caught stealing twice, and he was thrown out at home trying to go from first on a double

9:50

Comment From Catoblepas
Hello Jeff. Enjoyed your article on Hanley yesterday, for several reasons: the required skepticism around the new figures, the reminder that watching the plays in question is important, and the discussion with Alan Nathan in the comments. If he really did hit those grounders at 100MPH, might this just suggest that hit speed alone isn’t a very relevant data point, and needs the context of launch angle to provide useful information?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: Kind of depends what you’re going for. If you have a guy capable of hitting a bunch of grounders at 100+ miles per hour, I think that’s encouraging, because that means he’s generating tremendous bat speed and force. That’s proof of strength. Add in launch angle though and you’re getting a sense of more complete hitters, guys who hit the ball like they want to

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Joey Votto, say, would probably look great in an analysis that blends hit speed and launch angle.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Javier Baez might look great just by hit speed. But his relatively inconsistent bat control will mean some of those balls are going straight up or down

9:52	Comment From NJQ How many wins will arod produce? Does two sound about right?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Seems reasonable to me

9:53	Comment From OOOOOOs Crush Davis has a career .321 BABIP despite the .242 last year? Does that point to his current .359 being sustainable? Also, do you think he will have a .280 ISO for the whole year?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: He’s always hit the ball hard, and he doesn’t pop up often, so he can sustain a better-than-average BABIP, despite increasing shifts. And his true talent is probably around a .250 ISO or so, so .280 wouldn’t be nuts

9:54	Comment From _David _ Anything especially worrying about Cano’s slump?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Doubt it

9:55	Comment From Larry David Are you worried about any big name SP’s? Strasburg for example. Teheran, Lester, Samardzija? I’m trying to find a less vague way to ask this question but I need coffee.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really worry unless I see signs of physical problems. Strasburg has been in the zone too much, for what he is; he’ll sort that out over time

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Samardzija weirds me out with his low strikeouts, but that’s been dragged down somewhat by opening against the Royals, who hit everything

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Lester’s peripherals are exactly the same as a year ago

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Teheran, if I recall, had his worst game in some pretty lousy weather

9:58	Comment From mtsw Were our models too confident in predicting Nationals supremacy? 18% WS odds pre-season sort of implied they were almost 100% locks for the NL East.

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: I think they were pretty appropriately confident. And I suspect they’ll still win by a number of games

9:59	Comment From Dan Buying the breakout of Moose Tacos for the rest of this season? Who would you want for the next 5 years – Moose or Maikel Franco? Thanks, Jeff!