Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/1/18

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

Tommy N.: Jose Pirela has a 1.2 bWAR but only a 0.3 fWAR why such a drastic difference?

Jeff Sullivan: Defensive Runs Saved puts Pirela at +5 as a second baseman and +3 as an outfielder. For Ultimate Zone Rating, it’s +1 and -1, respectively

Jeff Sullivan: A gap like that is likely to regress as we move forward; most importantly, if you’re the Padres, no matter what’s going on with Pirela’s defense, you want him to be hitting for some actual power. So far, he’s not

Dylan: How amazing is Brandon Nimmo?

Jeff Sullivan: Well, the average major leaguer is probably like a 9.5 out of 10, so Nimmo goes up to 9.8

Jeff Sullivan: They’re all amazing!

Jeff Sullivan: Nimmo is a little more amazing than most of the rest

Jeff Sullivan: Never underestimate the ceiling of a young hitter with a very good eye

Jeff Sullivan: Consider this my weekly nod toward Jabari Blash

Jeff Sullivan: (Slugging .783 in Triple-A)

jimmy: JA Happ is looking like the best starter on the trading block this summer. What could he fetch in a trade?

Jeff Sullivan: Happ is already cooling off some — his K-BB% in April was 29%, and in May it was 15%

Jeff Sullivan: This is Happ’s contract year, and he has an established track record of being fine without being great. No one is going to trade for Happ because they’re delighted to start him in the playoffs; he’d be a third or fourth starter option for most

Jeff Sullivan: If Happ remains reasonably good, he’ll bring back a better return than, say, Jaime Garcia, but not really by a whole lot, barring another month like he had in April

Jeff Sullivan: For me, I think a lot of teams looking for pitching might rather trade for Tyson Ross

NL Cavity Probe: Are the Brewers among the class of the NL now, or just a decent and lucky team?

Jeff Sullivan: At present, they’re fifth in the National League in BaseRuns record

Jeff Sullivan: There’s a little bit of a Royals thing going on here — the Brewers probably have baseball’s strongest bullpen, and they’re also first in DRS and almost first in UZR

Jeff Sullivan: Because of the defense and because of the relief pitching, the Brewers are probably going to keep on “overachieving” relative to what you’d expect, but for me, they’re still an arm or a bat short

Jeff Sullivan: Jimmy Nelson might be that arm. We’ll see around the All-Star break

Xolo: The Cubs keep breaking safety rules and Maddon questions the rules afterwards and the league is gonna… do nothing about it?

Jeff Sullivan: I imagine there has been some private communication. If it happens again, I wouldn’t expect the communication to be so private

kevinthecomic: Can someone please write about why Matt Carpenter sucked for the first 6 weeks of the season but has recently returned to normal?  I would look it up myself but, you know, effort.

Jeff Sullivan: Carpenter, April: .266 wOBA
Carpenter, May: .405 wOBA

Jeff Sullivan: Carpenter, April: .405 expected wOBA
Carpenter, May: .410 expected wOBA

Jeff Sullivan: I know that’s not the whole story, and I know that xwOBA is somewhat incomplete, but this is a time where it’s really quite useful. The slumping Carpenter was hitting balls that should’ve been a lot more productive than they were

Jeff Sullivan: On top of that, maybe Carpenter’s back and shoulder are feeling better of late. Anthony Rizzo has hit far better since putting a back problem further behind him

Ryan: How are Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez so small and so powerful?

Jeff Sullivan: So far, 211 players have hit at least 100 batted balls

Jeff Sullivan: In terms of maximum exit velocity generated, Ramirez ranks 123rd. Betts ranks 94th. Altuve ranks 148th

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not the raw strength that’s so incredible. They’re not even in the same universe as Aaron Judge. What’s incredible is how good these guys are at getting the barrel to the baseball, over and over and over again

Jeff Sullivan: You don’t need to have above-average raw power to have above-average game power, if that makes any sense

Poised: Jon Gray leads MLB in BABIP against (.376), and looking at his Statcast data, a lot of it has been soft contact or contact with low hit probability. His peripherals look good. Has he just been unlucky and is he going to bounce back and be good again?

Jeff Sullivan: Not the least bit worried about Jon Gray. His stuff is still great. Lowest contact rate of his career. Last July he allowed a .405 BABIP. It was a little over .300 after that

Jeff Sullivan: Because he’s a Rockie, pitching half the time in Denver, his BABIP will be somewhat elevated. And if he keeps missing bats out of the zone, more of his contact will be *in* the zone, also slightly lifting the BABIP. But these things are ephemeral. Gray is real good

Andrew: Any recent change in the top 5 or is it Bart, Bohm, Madrigal, Mize, and Singer in some order?

Jeff Sullivan: This is not the chat you’re looking for

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t hold a candle to Eric or Kiley. They’re the experts

Jeff Sullivan: I cannot overstate how proud I am that we get to employ them both

Grey: Which underperorming hitter and pitcher will be better ROS?

Jeff Sullivan: Is it cheating if I say that Kole Calhoun will probably finish with a wRC+ higher than 3?

Jeff Sullivan: Fowler and Ozuna will figure it out in St. Louis

Jeff Sullivan: And Luis Castillo will be ok

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Not that anybody expected Albies to keep up a 40 homer pace, but has the league found a way to pitch to him?  Is there a hole in his swing/approach?

Jeff Sullivan: Albies, April: 163 wRC+
Albies, May: 99 wRC+

Jeff Sullivan: Albies, April: .349 expected wOBA
Albies, May: .327 expected wOBA

Jeff Sullivan: Even when Albies was chugging along, he was overachieving. Of course, some of that was a product of his aggressiveness — he stretched a whole bunch of singles into doubles, for example

Jeff Sullivan: But now opposing defenses are more aware of that. And Albies wasn’t going to sustain his pace anyway

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t see any kind of hole that’s opened up. The approach to Albies hasn’t changed too much lately. He’s still very young and very good. He’s just slowed down

Mark: How long do you need to get a good trip out of Yellowstone and Glacier?

Jeff Sullivan: Different definitions of “good trip.” For me, I’d probably want at least two or three full days in each. But I’d also want to get out into the backcountry

stever20: Saw someone with a too early All Star ballot.  Dodgers had all of 1 guy represented- Kenley Jensen.  And it feels very realistic.  If I had said that to you 2 months ago, would you have ever believed it?

Jeff Sullivan: Seager: hurt. Turner: hurt (for a while). Kershaw: hurt

Jeff Sullivan: And despite everything, the Dodgers’ BaseRuns record is over .500

Jeff Sullivan: Ross Stripling!!

Juan: Thanks for the chat.  How do you see the closer situation in Pittsburgh working out?  Committee? Crick , etc,

Jeff Sullivan: I think Vazquez still has some leash left, but if he’s more hurt than they’re letting on, wouldn’t be hard to see Rodriguez getting opportunities

Cust: What is wrong with the Angels?

Jeff Sullivan: Not much. Kole Calhoun, Garrett Richards, and Cam Bedrosian, for the moment

Jeff Sullivan: It’s a fairly good team that needs something, anything, out of right field. And there are a bunch of open questions regarding the pitching staff, which was inevitable

Jeff Sullivan: I like what I’ve seen from Justin Anderson, but he’s not perfect

Ben: How important is hitting for the cycle important to batters? Like would a batter stay at first when they would have had a double if they already had a home run, triple, and double?

Jeff Sullivan: No

Jeff Sullivan: It might very slightly change the internal calculation of how much of a chance to take re: stretching to second, but it doesn’t really matter to anyone

Jeff Sullivan: The cycle is stupid

Hendrik: What current MLB and NHL players to you are the best embodiments of the joy that playing those sports brings?

Jeff Sullivan: For MLB, it’s Francisco Lindor

Jeff Sullivan: For NHL, I don’t know, because I mostly only know the Ottawa Senators, and none of those players are happy

stever20: Do you feel like the Dodgers rushed Kershaw back too early?

Jeff Sullivan: This is one of those times where I think it’s appropriate to give the club the benefit of the doubt

Jeff Sullivan: They were already pitching well without Kershaw, and the injury that knocked him out from his first game back is different from the injury that sidelined him in the first place

Jeff Sullivan: I think it’s just one of those things. Backs are annoying

Juan: Will Pham go back to being Pham or is this slump a concern?

Jeff Sullivan: Pham, April: 82% contact
Pham, May: 73% contact

Jeff Sullivan: That’s not nothing, but I’m not yet too alarmed. The bat speed is still there. I guess there’s some chance Pham is having trouble again picking up the baseball, but if you assume he’s pretty much conquered his eye troubles, then I think this is just a run-of-the-mill cold streak

Sirras: Jacob deGrom has 2 seasons of control left after this season. Given the Mets don’t seem to have the talent to compete with ATL/PHI/WAS over the next few years, would you consider trading deGrom this offseason or next trading deadline (health permitting, of course)?

Jeff Sullivan: A much wider gap would have to open between the Mets and those other rival teams. For now, the Mets aren’t so far behind, talent-wise, that it makes sense to deal the team’s best player away

Borp: “Pele’s Hair Rains Down on Hawaii Residents”. That sounds so pretty! Until we read that this is volcanic glass. How can something that sounds so innocent and pure be as harmful as asbestos

Jeff Sullivan: Pele’s hair hired a good PR firm

Bort: I was SO excited for Alex Reyes’s return. Now I am despondent. Nothing matters and everything is terrible.

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t want to sit here and exaggerate before a broad public audience but there is an argument to be made that it should be illegal to pitch

Jeff Sullivan: Whenever a pitcher you like is on the mound, appreciate it. Appreciate the shit out of it. Because you never know if it’ll ever happen again

Caps in 567: How much of a priority should starting pitching be for the Brewers at the deadline? Does it make sense to pay through the nose for an “ace” or would they be better off sticking with their crop of back-end starters and adding even more bullpen help?

Jeff Sullivan: I’ll point to Jimmy Nelson again, but even besides him, I bet the Brewers poke around for someone kind of in the Happ tier. With that bullpen, they probably don’t need anyone to pitch a third time through the order

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: In a world where Acuna comes back from the 10 day DL healthy, and Vlad Jr is called up at the same time, who do you take ROS?  Long term?

Jeff Sullivan: Guerrero as a hitter, Acuna as a player

Jeff Sullivan: It’s almost impossible for a 19-year-old to be a better hitter than Guerrero is, but he has other limitations that Acuna probably doesn’t

Bernie: Jesus Aguilar gets 600 at bats. What do his final numbers look like?

Jeff Sullivan: Good news. He already has 534 career plate appearances! And he has a 112 wRC+

Jeff Sullivan: I think on present talent he’s better than that, but I don’t buy him as an MVP candidate or anything

Jeff Sullivan: It’s like he’s the Brewers’ answer to Jose Martinez

Sirras: David Wright threw a baseball! He played catch! Am I wrong to be exuberant even knowing he is unlikely to make it into a professional (even minor league) game?

Jeff Sullivan: No

Jeff Sullivan: All anyone’s ever looking for is the perpetuation of hope

Jeff Sullivan: As long as there exists any inkling of a chance, the flame burns sufficiently bright

Jeff Sullivan: Reality can’t hurt you until it’s official

Al: What’s your outlook on Musgrove?

Jeff Sullivan: I like him! I don’t like shoulder problems for pitchers. I especially don’t like when they pop up more than once. So he’s going to make me nervous for a while

Kristen: What’s up with P. Goldschmidt?  O-swing% way up from last season, Z-contact% and hard-hit rate down, K% at a career-high – indicative of decline in bat speed?

Jeff Sullivan: It was easy to assume his April K% wasn’t too big a deal because he also had a 145 wRC+

Jeff Sullivan: But in May, that K% stayed elevated, and his wRC+ dropped all the way to 48

Jeff Sullivan: I have it written down here to take a closer look at some point soon. I don’t know exactly what the issue is. But it’s not good when a player experiences two months of elevated strikeouts, and in May, Goldschmidt got himself stuck in chase mode

Jeff Sullivan: One idea: it’s a timing problem, and he’s cheating on fastballs, leaving him increasingly vulnerable to softer stuff

Jeff Sullivan: Consider that unconfirmed

Rhys Lightening: Hoskins’ freak injury was weird. He hit a double with a broken jaw! Do you think the version of Rhys we’re seeing this year is the real one, or is his true talent level somewhere between this year and last?

Jeff Sullivan: That’s nothing — on April 24, Mac Williamson apparently sustained a concussion while attempting a catch in the fifth inning. In the sixth inning, he homered! Then he was sidelined for a month

Jeff Sullivan: I think this is close to the “real” Hoskins, but over a greater period of time, he’ll strike out less, and he’ll hit for a little more power

Jeff Sullivan: So instead of a 116 wRC+, I’d look for something more like 125-130

Brad: Given the randomness of injuries, lack of consensus on pitcher mechanics, how much should we take into account durability issues when recognizing which pitcher is best? How long of a period does a pitcher require to be considred the outright best? Kershaw has his durability issues. Since 2017, he’s been more like the second best pitcher during his 2014-2016 reign of sheer dominance. Is that enough to conclude he’s no longer the defacto number 1?

Jeff Sullivan: Durability is important. Now, if you’re going to go down this road, you need to establish which question you’re asking — is it about the most valuable pitcher, or the pitcher who you’d most want to take the ball in a one-game playoff, given 100% health?

Jeff Sullivan: If Kershaw were obviously 100%, I think you still take him. But the reality these days is simply that you can’t count on that as often as you used to

Jeff Sullivan: It’s kind of like Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera, when he’s feeling good, remains an elite-level hitter. But he’s increasingly nagged by these injuries that take a toll on his performance, even when he’s still able to play

Jeff Sullivan: Can’t easily separate a player from his own physical limitations

carrotjuice: Is Devin Mesoraco back, or is this just a fluke?

Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a fluke that he’s hitting for power. But durability is the major concern. Mesoraco can be good for weeks at a time. Hard to count on him to be good for months at a time

Grant: On your Dbacks article, I noticed the Angels were fifth in May for wRC+, but Trout is the only player who hit significantly well. Is he that good that he can prop up the team’s batting line?

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think I understand

Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, Trout was the only guy with a wRC+ over 150 (or 200), but Simmons, Maldonado, Upton, and Ohtani were all over 120

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the real point is how much damage can be done by someone like Kole Calhoun spending an entire month with a wRC+ of -8

Patrick: Thumbs up or down on the mariners trade for Denard Span and Alex Colome?

Jeff Sullivan: I think the trade is fine from the Mariners’ end, but it’s also their own fault they didn’t have sufficient minor-league depth to just address those vacancies internally

Dom: What a would a reasonable trade package for Machado to the Braves look like? Riley, Allard and a dart throw prospect?

Jeff Sullivan: If I’m the Braves, I’m trying like hell not to include Riley, since I’d want him taking over the position after Machado leaves

Jeff Sullivan: The Orioles don’t have to worry about that — they need help everywhere. Given that Machado is both very good but also very short-term, this feels like a trade where the Braves could get away with dealing exclusively young pitchers

Bill: Will Jesus Aguilar receive the bulk of the playing time when Thames returns and is his pace sustainable?

Jeff Sullivan: No, no. As good as Aguilar has been, Thames also will return to a 153 wRC+

Jeff Sullivan: Makes for a pretty easy platoon to operate

got ker back: as a dodger fan, i’m just skeptical that this front office re-signs kershaw.  not sure i have a question, just interested in your take.

Jeff Sullivan: I think it helps a great deal that the Dodgers can afford to spend so much damn money. So in a circumstances as extraordinary as this one, they could pay a little extra for legacy and not worry about it

Jeff Sullivan: That being said, Kershaw appears like he might be headed back to the DL. Is this really the season you have before you opt out of two years and $65 million?

Jeff Sullivan: So the Dodgers might be spared that decision anyway

Jeff Sullivan: One other thing to be aware of is a predatory team in the market willing to blow the Dodgers out of the water. Say Kershaw does opt out. I’ve heard about a surprising team that’s considered offering upward of $50 million a year

Smith: When can we expect a Christian Stewart promotion? Dude is raking in Triple-A.

Jeff Sullivan: Seems like it shouldn’t be far off, with JaCoby Jones falling back down to earth

Chapultepec Audiorama: Where does Orlando Arcia’s defense rate on a scale of 0 to Andrelton Simmons?

Jeff Sullivan: Since 2016, among shortstops, Arcia is eighth in DRS and rather surprisingly 17th in UZR

Jeff Sullivan: Simmons is first in DRS and first in UZR

Jeff Sullivan: So, um, 6?

Sirras: Unsurprisingly, Kershaw is good using his breaking pitches even without the fastball. Also unsurprisingly, he may be slightly broken. If Kershaw is unable to continue as an elite pitcher, do you see him as a HoF candidate based on his career so far?

Jeff Sullivan: Yes

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, if his career were suddenly over, maybe there’s an argument against him. But even if he’s done being an ace, that doesn’t mean he’s done being good, and he’s already had a Hall-of-Fame peak

Trevor Bauer: I am an ace.  Do you wish to argue that Jeff

Jeff Sullivan: No. 2

Jeff Sullivan: Bauer has faced a relatively easy schedule. As have or will all of the Indians pitchers

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Verlander’s been great but has a 90.9% strand rate.  There’s no way he sustains that, right?  Or is it actually a function of him pitching so well that, on the off chance someone does make it on base, the following hitters have almost no chance of driving them in?

Jeff Sullivan: Nah — just about every tiny ERA is dependent in some part on luck. Opponents so far have hit .164 against Verlander with the bases empty, but that drops to .057 with runners in scoring position

Jeff Sullivan: That’ll turn around, but it doesn’t mean Verlander will actually be any worse than he is right now

Jeremy: If the Mariners played in the wild card game next week and had to start Felix or LeBlanc, who do you think they should/would?

Jeff Sullivan: Felix would probably start, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if LeBlanc were warming at the same time

Not Finnigan: Scooter Gennet, huh?

Jeff Sullivan: The .399 BABIP ain’t real, but if Gennett played in Boston or New York, he’d have a few magazine covers by now

Jeff Sullivan: Since the start of last season, Gennett has a 133 wRC+. Betts is at 132

Ethan: Jeff can you tell me anything to make me feel better about Felix?

Jeff Sullivan: I just answered a question about the improbably valuable Scooter Gennett

Jeff Sullivan: If Scooter Gennett can figure it out, so can a broken-down Felix Hernandez

Brendan H.: Are Matt Davidson’s massive batting  improvements sustainable?

Jeff Sullivan: Not to this degree, but I can buy him as an above-average hitter now

Jeff Sullivan: Not much evidence on the record of a hitter actually being able to trim his chase rate by 12 points season to season

Ridge: How do you forsee Bundy’s season playing out? HR problem but filthy slider.

Jeff Sullivan: Very few pitchers have faced a tougher schedule than Bundy has so far

Jeff Sullivan: Now, that doesn’t excuse the miserable start against the Royals, but Bundy has got a tough road of it, given his division and his ballpark

Jeff Sullivan: In another setting, it would be easier for him to stand out. As is, he’s a mostly solid starting pitcher on a mostly garbage roster

Mr. Nor’easter: Is it improbable that Max Muncy could be this year’s Chris Taylor?

Jeff Sullivan: Muncy hit throughout the minors, and he has a fairly discerning eye. Doesn’t have Taylor’s defensive versatility at premium positions, but it’s not hard for me to believe that Muncy is a pretty good hitter now

Jeff Sullivan: Muncy, Kemp, and Stripling. What a world

kevinthecomic: Top 3 non-closer relievers not currently hurt?  Hader, C. Green, Richard Rodriguez?

Jeff Sullivan: Here’s the thing about Rodriguez: 248 relievers have thrown at least ten innings, and his average leverage when entering ranks 20th-lowest

Jeff Sullivan: The Pirates haven’t trusted him so much in important situations yet. Doesn’t mean they won’t get there, but it’s worth keeping an eye on

Jeff Sullivan: I might have to take Hader, Green, and Ottavino

Jeff Sullivan: No, wait, Ottavino is currently hurt

Jeff Sullivan: Oh well! Open competition for the third slot there

Hello There: After a dismal April in AA Fernando Tatis Jr put up arguably the best month of his career in May. Do you think we see him on the Padres at the end of the year?

Jeff Sullivan: I think more yes than no, although I also think Urias comes up sooner

Alec: Jose Ramirez: best non-rookie contract in baseball?

Jeff Sullivan: By a very large margin, I think

Nego: Clearly the Jays have missed two prime windows to get value for Donaldson. What are they looking at now? Atlanta seems like a fit, do you think AA/Shapiro&Atkins could be trading partners with how he departed?

Jeff Sullivan: I think front offices are able to overlook those things when focused on baseball trades

Jeff Sullivan: Especially since these days so many different people get involved in significant transactions

Jeff Sullivan: Going to be a fascinating deadline, given the potential availabilities of Machado, Donaldson, Beltre, and Moustakas

Anthony: Speaking of impossibly bad, Kole Calhoun sucks. What happened

Jeff Sullivan: Also have a note to look at this soon. When something like this goes on for two months, I think you have to consider the chance there’s more than just a baseball problem going on

Bo: Dansby sure has cooled off after a good start… Is he a lost cause at this point?

Jeff Sullivan: Lost cause is too harsh, but the Braves should probably think about thinking about another long-term shortstop option

DraftDog27: Thoughts on Maikel Franco missing the plate. Should MLB have intervened (with an on field buzzer system like the NFL under 2 minutes), or is the responsibility solely on the Dodgers at that point?

Jeff Sullivan: To hear the Phillies tell it, they all immediately realized Franco didn’t touch the plate. So the Dodgers should’ve also noticed, themselves. It’s their own fault they didn’t

Jeff Sullivan: Now, it’s also on the umpire for signaling that Franco was safe. Apparently Grandal asked after the play and the ump thought Franco did make contact

Jeff Sullivan: It is, in part, an umpire screw-up. It’s also ultimately a Dodgers screw-up, because they had the option to challenge, I believe

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think baseball should intervene in situations like this one. You just expect that the on-field umpires will do a better job of nailing the call

CDMX: How was Mexico City?

Jeff Sullivan: Popocatepetl erupted a bit

Jeff Sullivan: I know it does that a lot, but I got to see it for myself, and it was amazing

Jay: It seems like no one wants to win the NL West. Now Kershaw is hurt again. Who eventually pulls this out?

Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers

Hunky Dory: Are enough people talking about how amazing Gleyber Torres is, given how many people are talking about how amazing the comparable Albies is?

Jeff Sullivan: Torres, amazingly, has flown a little under the radar

Jeff Sullivan: Part because his team was already good, part because the lineup was already stacked, part because he was a relatively late promotion

Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days