Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 6/12/15

June 12, 2015

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to basically on-time baseball chat!

9:01	Jeff Sullivan: Ordinarily by now I’d have a JABO post live but I haven’t heard back from the editors over there so there’s the reason for that

9:02	Comment From Maxamuz I bet no one is here because you’re on time for once.

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I actually had to give it a minute to let the queue get built up

9:02	Comment From Curtis Fix the Mariner’s offense in 10 words or less…..

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Well, I’ll give you two different answers

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: 1) Have Robinson Cano hit like Robinson Cano

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: 2) Hit as well with men on as not

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: At present, the Mariners are averaging 3.47 runs per game, last in the AL. By BaseRuns, they should be at 3.88 — that’s 25 more runs, or fewer runs, depending on how you look at it.

9:05	Comment From MSW Hector Rondon. Closer? Set-up guy? Who the heck knows?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: He’s good enough to be a closer, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Cubs toward the leading edge of teams trying to eliminate set-in bullpen roles.

9:06	Comment From mtsw Assuming no injuries, and not taking salaries into consideration, who would you rather have RoS: Nick Markakis or Nolan Reimold?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t seem like it’s fair to assume no injuries in a question with Nolan Reimold

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: My answer would be Markakis

9:08	Comment From sully should the red sox trade clay buchholz once they fall out of contention?

9:09

Jeff Sullivan: If that were to happen, Buchholz would be a sensible piece to move, but I don’t think the Red Sox slip so I don’t think Buchholz goes anywhere. At the very least, I think the Red Sox hold, and Buchholz has gotten better over the course of the year. Affordable team options coming up after this season

9:09	Comment From Curtis Fair expectations for Verlander’s return?

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: 90 pitches, some of which remind you of Justin Verlander

9:10	Comment From Jon When will the Mariners be good again

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Howard Lincoln is only 75 years old so it could be a while yet

9:10	Comment From Colby If the Tigers are out of the playoffs by only a few games should they sell Price to the highest bidder or even try to move Simon?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: They won’t do that. Not Price, anyway. Maybe they could sell high on Simon but the Tigers aren’t the kind of team that folds when they’re this close to another run.

9:11	Comment From Person So is Dave’s Mariners fandom essentially dead and gone at this point, or just in a coma?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: The way I’d say it, Dave has probably the most complicated relationship with the Mariners, but it’s no longer a fan’s relationship. There’s no emotional investment there. Plenty of reasons why

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I know my connection’s waning too. Some of it is getting older, some of it is doing this as a job, and some of it is them

9:13	Comment From Guest not trying to be an ass, but your perennial lateness just seems like intentional schtick to me. and if it isn’t, why not just set the alarm a few minutes earlier and do everything the same and that way youre not late?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a schtick. Things have a way of filling up as much time as is available, and I’m usually late because I’m reading baseball articles because there are so many of them that get published in the morning and I have to stay informed

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: What I should be better about is just stopping the reading when it’s time to go, but once you’re in you’re in

9:14	Comment From Vslyke More amazing: that the Nationals are only at .500 given Harper and Scherzer’s seasons or that they are at .500 despite getting nothing from Zimmerman, Werth, and Rendon?

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: I considered writing about them the other day. When the season started, the only thing that could sink the Nationals was injuries. They had crazy upper-level talent, but limited depth. The injuries have hit and now the team’s vulnerable. Don’t forget about Strasburg and Fister. The Nationals, on talent, are terrific, but they haven’t been able to be the Nationals very much

9:16	Comment From k So, Bobby Cano – this is just a babip thing, right? He’s still hitting the ball hard.

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: A lot of hitting the ball hard on the wrong trajectory. So it’s more complicated than simple bad luck

9:16	Comment From Kevin You think Miley’s uncalled for shouting match with Farrell and public lack of respect for his manager is the first domino in an early exit for JF this season?

9:18

Jeff Sullivan: Well, I doubt it would count as the first domino — the team’s lack of success would be the first domino — but don’t mistake this for a big issue. Every pitcher is a competitor, and every pitcher wants to keep pitching. Miley was understandably frustrated, and people act out when their competitive flames are burning

9:20	Comment From Maxamuz I’m falling in love with Brandon Crawford to the point I want to sell Desmond. Also, Nori Aoki.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t know if there’s a question here but the Giants have really done something with their player development system

9:21	Comment From Jon Is Brad Miller a bust

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Brad Miller was never a top-100 prospect and he’s at 5 career WAR in a little short of 1,000 plate appearances

9:22	Comment From Jays fan Jays or Dodgers with the best offense in mlb? Basicaly tied by woba and wrc+

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try it this way:

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Jays project for a .327 wOBA. Dodgers project for .329, excluding pitchers

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Dodgers play in the worse league. Jays play in the better hitter’s ballpark. Pitchers do count, for Los Angeles. It’s virtually a toss-up.

9:26	Comment From Sleight of Hand Pro are reverse platoon splits real? is there a hitter in baseball where you truly believe their true talent is higher against same sided pitchers?

9:27

Jeff Sullivan: Ichiro is the case that always comes to mind — .785 career OPS against lefties, .762 against righties. But such cases are extremely unusual and extremely difficult to prove. And even a *real* reverse platoon split would be pretty small, so if you’ve got a guy who’s dominating same-handed pitchers and struggling against the opposite, that’s not real

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The Giants seem to have emphasized guys who can hit pitchers of the same handedness, and maybe there’s something they teach, but you should usually bet against exceptions

9:28	Comment From Josh G What contending team would make sense as a landing spot for Carlos Gomez?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I wonder if the Blue Jays would like him and then they could put Pillar in a corner to really get a strong defense

9:30	Comment From John Is Ryan Zimmerman’s contract one of the worst in baseball? Virtually untradeable (due to salary increases and NTC), he has lost almost all of his defensive value, and his hitting is beginning to slip.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a good contract but the Nationals are basically paying Zimmerman to be in the vicinity of league-average, which is well within his potential when he’s healthy. Of course, that depends on his being healthy…

9:31	Comment From Brian Should Jason Motte be the Cubs closer moving forward?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: probably not

9:33	Comment From Danny Do you think Oberholtzer’s blister issues are still bothering him or is he healthy now?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I doubt the Astros would pitch him if they figured he had a nagging blister, but it’s also the sort of thing that’ll probably recur

9:34	Comment From Phillies113 Cleveland’s first 29 games: 10-19 (.345 winning %). Cleveland’s last 29 games: 17-12 (.586). Which would be more accurate: Cleveland wasn’t that bad to start, or “Cleveland isn’t as good as they’ve been lately”?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: They’re a good team. Early on, they underperformed — on the field, and in terms of luck. But they seemed like a title contender in March, and I think they understand how good their pitching staff is. They’re trouble

9:35	Comment From Johnson What is wrong with Heyward’s hitting? What are the chances of him being a consistent above average performer (hitting wise)?

9:37

Jeff Sullivan: Heyward might never achieve the consistency people want from him, given all the previous hype, but as boring as it is to say I have to point out his 112 rest-of-season wRC+ projection. That *is* more significant than his 86 figure season-to-date. All that said, he very obviously hasn’t been himself, and while a month ago I thought I saw reason to skip writing about him, maybe next week I’ll finally go more in-depth. I’m curious, too, and the groundballs are back

9:37	Comment From Theo What do you think the eventual Papelbon-to-Cubs package will look like?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: The Phillies will eat some money, and receive a barely-significant prospect

9:38	Comment From Bobnipotent What could be the root cause of the teams average with RISP dipping so far below their average with the bases empty?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: It’s almost always luck. Boring, impersonal luck. Maybe a small factor could be staggering of at-bats such that good hitters bat with no one on and worse hitters bat with people on, but that tends to even out. If you see a big difference in these splits, assume that it won’t keep up

9:39	Comment From baseball What is the most understudied part of baseball?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Psychology

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Understudied in large part because we can’t do anything

9:41	Comment From danny jose quintana is good. what would the trade market be for him right now? i was thinking a proven position player under similar control like puig or marte, thoughts?

9:42

Jeff Sullivan: You could get a good, young, proven position player. Quintana’s talent is there and he has a very team-friendly contract. But then that’s one of the reasons why the White Sox probably wouldn’t deal him, even if they decided to sell. A straight-up exchange for a hitter might work but that doesn’t make the Sox better, just different

9:44	Comment From Sleight of Hand Pro Trout and Harper are both free agents. Trout will sign for your team for 10/$450M, and Harper will sign for 10/$400M and you cant sign both. who are you signing?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Trout, still

9:44	Comment From Person Do you ever peruse the baseball subreddit to get any inspiration for articles to write?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: No, but that’s not a bad idea

9:45	Comment From Bigglesworth How do you see playing time shaking out for Guerrero and Olivera ROS ? Do you see Guerrero or Ethier part of a trade package for an SP.and….don’t the Dogers need to address their bullpen as well. Cueto and Chapman ?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers bullpen has been good, and we don’t know what Olivera is going to be yet. Guerrero has very little trade value because he has the contractual right to opt out after the season if he’s moved. It would make sense to see Ethier exchanged for an arm of some sort.

9:46	Comment From Curtis Have the many defensive shifts employed against pull hitters made a significant statistical impact? Which players are the best at defeating the shift thus far?

9:46

Jeff Sullivan: Well, Mike Moustakas is the popular example of a guy who learned to beat the shift, by hitting away from it. But most players who try to do that don’t succeed. Other players, like Mark Teixeira, just try to hit over the shift. The shifts have made a difference, especially against pull-hitting lefties, but league-wide it doesn’t seem like it’s responsible for offense collapsing or anything

9:47	Comment From Johnson Do the Jays have the resources to land Cueto and Chapman? Would Norris, Pompey, Boyd and Alford be enough?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The Jays definitely have the pieces! http://www.foxsports.com/ml…

9:49

Jeff Sullivan: Without question, the package starts with Norris, or Hoffman. The Reds might ask for both. As Dave talked about, this could be an extreme seller’s market. On the other hand, there are questions about the state of Cueto’s elbow, so maybe that could keep the price reasonable. I’ll say this much: Cueto/Chapman wouldn’t fit anywhere better than they’d fit Toronto

9:50	Comment From mike Let’s say a team moves the fences waaaay back (500+ ft) and assembles the best defensive OF they can (Cain, Lagares, Bourjos, for example). Would they save a lot of runs?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: They’d save a ton of runs, but most of those balls that would’ve been homers would be uncatchable and they’d end up going for inside-the-parkers. Rarely is the fence the only thing keeping an outfielder from catching a dinger

9:51	Comment From Josh Five best farm systems post-draft?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: That’s a Kiley question! Ask that question to Kiley.

9:51	Comment From Mike Is Cameron Maybin finally good now or is he just getting lucky so far?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: I buy him as a decent everyday player

9:51	Comment From Sleight of Hand Pro have you ever been into video games? if so, which ones?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve only ever cared for sports games and then mostly just hockey games because the pace works for me. I find video-game baseball to be dreadful

9:52	Comment From A T Marlins moved Stanton outta the 3 hole last night, and finally hit something other than a solo Home run (it was 3). Should your best power guy hit 3rd or 4th if he strikes out alot?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Stanton should be hitting fourth. Or maybe second. Stanton, Yelich, and Ozuna should be blended somehow at 1-2-4

9:55

Comment From David
Your piece on Bryce Harper was fantastic, but couldn’t his new approach (going the other way all the time) be a little negative? For instance, he doesn’t have a single homer on the inside third of the plate and seems to get jammed in there regularly when the pitcher executes. Obviously his numbers aren’t suffering yet.

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Harper actually talked about this with Eno. I’ll excerpt (http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…)

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: “If you can pick a guy out of the big leagues that can throw three straight heaters on the inside part of the plate, and paint those pitches, I’ll tip my cap to them,” said Harper. “If they can do that, that’s very impressive.”

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Harper is basically giving up his cold spot. He knows where it is and pitchers know where it is. But it’s a really difficult area to hit on a consistent basis, and if you miss, he’ll destroy it

9:56	Comment From Kevin Would the Mets go back to the 6 man rotation to add Steven Matz into the mix or would a trade need to occur?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: They’re not going to run with a consistent six-man rotation

9:57	Comment From Ronny Cedeno MVP For Life Are you able to really get away on the weekends? I notice Monday morning you often have an article up first thing, so do you write that over the weekend to get posted, or is that the last thing you do on Friday before heading out to get a beer?