Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/23/13

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Hi guys!

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll be with you as soon as I remove this comment spammer http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jeff-sullivan-fangraphs-chat-72313/

9:02	Jeff Sullivan: Never trust anybody who leaves a comment on a chat before the chat

9:03	Comment From bdhudson Do you enjoy moral grandstanding? I enjoy moral grandstanding. Let’s talk some more about why Ryan Braun is worse than Hitler.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: The coverage: already insufferable. Ryan Braun: kind of a douche. Everybody sucks.

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I’m ready to move on and think about other things, like baseball that’s being played, but, man, Braun seems like a bit of an ass. Many players are asses, but seldom is it revealed with such splendor.

9:05	Comment From Sirras One NL Cy Young: Harvey, Kershaw, or the field?

9:06

Jeff Sullivan: If the voting happened today, it would probably be split between Harvey and Kershaw. I think I’d slightly favor Harvey. Wainwright won’t get nearly enough recognition since he’s right up there with those two. Still two months left for someone to dominate or for someone to collapse/get hurt

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: fifth in NL pitcher WAR right now is Jhoulys Chacin

9:07	Comment From STiVo Did the Cubs got approximately the value you were expecting in return for Garza?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty much right on the nose. Olt + interesting prospect + bit piece. Don’t know about PTBNL and I should hope for the Rangers’ sake it’s not much, but the Cubs got a lot for what was, to them, a little. Good position to be selling rentals you don’t hope to re-sign

9:08	Comment From Tim Does Lincecum get Edwin Jackson money in the offseason?

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: 2012 Jackson money, not 2013 Jackson money

9:09	Comment From bdhudson PROVIDE CONTENT

9:09	Jeff Sullivan: Only you can provide your own contentment

9:10	Comment From HTD Would you rather have Nolan Arenado or Nick Franklin going forward

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Franklin, slightly, but Arenado could close the gap real quick on account of his defense

9:10	Comment From zack Do you think the cubs are really seriously considering moving the Shark?

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: No, but there’s never any harm in finding out what’s out there

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: Nothing since June 29 http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/jeff_samardzija/

9:11	Comment From _David_ Do more athletic and toolsy players age better than the “gritty” ones who maximize their skills, because physical talent creates more of a buffer against age and injury erosion such that they have further to fall?

9:12

Jeff Sullivan: I shouldn’t have accepted a question I don’t know the answer to, but this one’s more complicated. Do you mean established big-league athletes vs. established big-league gritty types? I think the latter group could balance some of that out by having demonstrated great work ethics, which could protect them against injury and decline in later years

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Probably, if you looked at the trends overall, you would see strikingly little difference. Players all age.

9:13	Comment From F U Jobu Jon Villar, Hou. is he the next victim @ SS or can he stick?

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: I am decidedly not in love, but there’s no harm in experimenting because they are oh so bad

9:14	Comment From _David_ Do people in Portland root for the Seahawks? If they were, say, historically good this year, would you care at all?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: Portland has a big Seahawks fan contingent. Also 49ers. I am a casual, fairweather Seahawks fan, so I would find some delight in their success, but mostly I’d be concentrating on hockey season

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: When the Seahawks were busy losing that playoff game to the Falcons(?) last winter, I was at brunch

9:15	Comment From Sirras One Hi Jeff!

9:15	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy Howdy Jeff

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: hi you guys

9:15

Comment From JayRay
How much do fan bases play into a front office’s decisions? For a fairly smart organization, the Red Sox have been obsessed with the idea of a closer for years. Could this be in part to appease a less knowledgable fan base that doesn’t understand that proven closers aren’t much of a thing?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: No, that’s about appeasing players and managers

9:16

Jeff Sullivan: Smart front offices don’t react to the wills and wants of uneducated sports fans. I mean a popular franchise player might get a little boost somewhere or somehow, but generally the front office will do what it thinks is best for the organization and the marketing department will try to spin it to the masses

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: And the front offices and marketing departments don’t work closely together, if together at all

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Fun little story:

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: A few years ago the Mariners were hosting something like Asian-American Heritage Day or what have you at the ballpark

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: That same day, they fired Don Wakamatsu. Imagine how the PR people felt.

9:19	Comment From zack What do you expect from AROD this year? I hear he’s back in postseason form!!!!

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I think he’ll play a bit and help a bit and he’ll sit out a lot

9:19	Comment From _David_ The Mariners would need to play at a .714 clip to get to a 92 “safe zone” for the second wildcard, at which they still might miss the playoffs… Has the possibility been anywhere in the back of your mind?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: heavens no

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: they’re toast, delicious toast

9:20	Comment From _David_ Please tell me Morse won’t take playing time from Ackley and Saunders.

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: A little, for a little, until the roster situation clears up after the deadline

9:20	Comment From my jays are red Hi jeff. what do you think about the Rays’ rise? do you think they can win the AL east?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: They’re a very good team that’s mostly healthy now, and the Red Sox are a little less healthy, and absolutely the division is winnable

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Our projected standings page has the Red Sox and Rays finishing with identical records, well separated from the rest of the East

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: The Rays have Jamey Wright?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Jamey Wright has a 2.86 ERA?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: Jamey Wright has a strikeout an inning?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: By the way everyone, fun fact re: Rangers and adding Garza

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Before the trade, our projected standings had them finishing at a .553 clip, with 4.19 RA/game. Now they’re finishing at a .558 clip, with 4.14 RA/game. So that’s that impact.

9:25	Comment From Bret What are your thoughts on the hot news that is JP Arencibia leaving Twitter?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: He probably didn’t have the patience

9:25	Comment From The Oriole Bird More likely: (A) The Mariners trade Iwakuma during the 2013 season; or (B) the Mariners make the 2013 playoffs?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: A

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: here come the jokers complaining that this is a Mariners chat

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: you are reading this chat for free of your own volition

9:26	Comment From ned The Guerrero kid LA just signed , decent player or LA just wasting dollars?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: First I’ve heard of it actually http://www.mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2013/07/23/report-dodgers-sign-cuban-shortstop-alexander-guerrero-to-732m-deal/

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: 7/$32 million for a Cuban infielder

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: No clue how he’s going to pan out — no one can ever know — but obviously the Dodgers have earned a little trust, and it’ll be interesting to see if this might have an effect on any potential Cano free agent negotiations

9:28	Comment From F U Jobu Is Garza the best player to join the junior circuit this season?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: probably

9:28	Comment From Izzy Are there any biogenesis names that aren’t public yet?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Almost certainly a handful, at least

9:28	Comment From Rags Can we get together a union of Fantasy Baseball Owners to appeal the Braun case? I thought I was going to have at least a couple more months of legal proceedings!

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I would love to have you all together in the same room, absolutely

9:29	Comment From my jays are red Phillies are doing better than the Nationals!

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Nationals are doing better than the Angels!

9:30	Comment From Gabe Can you provide some clarity on how wOBA weights are determined?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: You’ll find your explanations around here http://www.insidethebook.com/woba.shtml

9:30	Comment From Swing and a Miss Puiggy let’s be pragmatic and discuss Logan Schafer Braun’s replacement

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: god no

9:30	Comment From Joe Don Upon reflection (24 hrs), did the Rangers over-pay for Garza?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think so, because I personally don’t think that much of Olt. Objectively, they paid too much for maybe an extra win + a playoff boost, but I don’t think we the fans properly appreciate the significance of that boost given the leverage of the Rangers’ spot.

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: It’s a big deal, winning or not winning the division, and having a little edge come October. How big of a deal? Big enough for the Rangers to internally justify such a transaction

9:32	Comment From Dave Any chance AA’s job is in jeopardy? Seasons been a complete bust and 3 of the main pieces in Dickey/Johnson/Burhele have been poor and we sacrificed 4 of our top 5 propects to do it. Im also worried the team will stick with Arencibia at C for the next year or too 🙁

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Some chance, but he’ll probably get another one

9:33	Comment From zack As a mariners fan, I was hoping you could give a brief summary of your thoughts on AROD’s career from the beginning until today.

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: nonpareil

9:33	Comment From Chris I know it wont be the same team but the mariners look a little better for next season right?

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: With all young players, you have to wait out the adjustment periods. Franklin, for example, is now striking out a ton. Things feel positive at the moment, and there’s reason for that, but everything is positive on a winning streak and Ackley is bad and Zunino is raw. 2014 still isn’t looking like a playoff year

9:34	Comment From Rated Rookie The chorus defending Braun by backhandedly scolding those scolding him is a major fail.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Everybody looks bad in this. Like almost everybody

9:35	Comment From Truth When they say “Player K has a .250 average vs fastballs this year” or whatever, is that simply his babip vs fastballs? How about the times he swings right through a fastball?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: BABIP + dingers. I hate those statistics. So much is left out, and they don’t pay any attention to the counts. Fastballs come earlier in counts.

9:36	Comment From Internet User Since 1995 Everybody sucks. But also everybody doesn’t suck. True?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: Rule of thumb: you are a worse person than you think you are, and everybody else is a better person than you think they are. Not you, specifically, but yes also you, specifically.

9:36	Comment From Lost in Braun: Multiple needles. Lost in the Braun news: a royal baby. Priorities, people.

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I know I’ve cultivated a good group of Twitter follows because I only saw like 2 or 3 such tweets all of yesterday

9:37	Comment From Eddie Is M.A. Gonzalez a number three SP? A four?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Absolutely no idea right now

9:37	Comment From 2Pac More enjoyable form of art: gif or early French impressionism?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: .gif, obviously

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: look for .gifs of early French impressionism

9:38	Comment From bdhudson What are your thoughts on Dave’s ‘move the trade deadline’ piece?

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: Going to read it right after this chat. I already like the idea as a thought experiment, but he’s moving the deadline back, right? Then you’re reducing the amount of time acquired players spend with their new teams, reducing the significance of the additions, which could drive down the market. So it’s all complicated and I look forward to thinking about it further.

9:41	Comment From alex What is going on in the Outfield in Arizona, seems like they have 4 qualified starters. Who do you project for the rest of the season there?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Should be Ross/Pollock/Parra, mixing in a little Eaton and not playing very much Kubel. But I can’t trust them to not play very much Kubel

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: That took too long for me to figure out

9:43	Comment From Newt Gingrich What are the chances that Aaron Hicks turns into an average player?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Average? Pretty good.

9:43	Comment From Dave Even if Grilli is injured, Pirates shouldn’t trade for a top reliever with all the depth they have, correct? Reid, Hughes, Black, even Cole

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Don’t think any team should pretty much ever try to trade for a top reliever, barring like a Mariano Rivera sort

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: But it wouldn’t be a bad idea to explore the market for second-tier sorts who can generate strikeouts, like Oliver Perez

9:44	Comment From gson If Arod is banned for life (hypothetically) doesn’t this effectively reward the NYY’s by reducing their competitive balance tax situation?.. and when will the punishment for player indiscretion actually start punishing the owners and clubs?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Players being suspended does punish the owners and clubs, usually. Those people want those players to be playing.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: But then there’s the question: should clubs be punished for mistakes by individual players? Why should the Brewers have to suffer for Ryan Braun being a lying ass? Obviously there’s not really any way to punish one without punishing the other, but it’s not the Brewers who screwed up.

9:46	Comment From Truth On a pitcher’s splits, how do you calculate IP vs left or right handed hitters?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Wouldn’t that just be outs/3?

9:47	Comment From BassmanUW So the Cubs pretty clearly have the number 2 farm system in baseball now, right?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: They’re in the conversation

9:47	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Does Braun’s earlier appeal and subsequent suspension mean that players like Chris Davis will continue to get questions forever? Is there anything a player can say that fans or sportswriters will trust? Can we try dunking them in a pond to see if they drown?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: And this is precisely why clean players are mad at Braun, and other users

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Because of Braun, people won’t trust anybody. The only solution is time + steps forward in game cleanliness.

9:48	Comment From Steel City Reader How much worse are the Pirates if Grilli is out for the remainder of 2013?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Realistically, maybe a win, but it’ll feel worse than that

9:49	Comment From Pops The O’s have their offense, defense and pitching clicking right now. Feel confident they’ll make a decent run at the division even with the strong play of Tampa and Boston?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think they’re worse than those teams, but obviously they could make up a little ground and the Red Sox have a few injury questions that could hold them back. O’s are in a good position

9:50	Comment From Dave barring no suspension Odds of Bartolo Colon winning the AL Cy Young?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Low, with Felix doing Felix stuff and Scherzer presently being 14-1

9:51	Comment From my jays are red do you think there’s any way the second wild card is giving too many teams a false sense of sanity? or should they NFL it and add more teams to the playoffs instead?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: It definitely lowers the point at which a team fancies itself a contender, because it takes fewer wins to qualify for the postseason. But then the fact of the matter is that anybody can win in the playoffs, so…

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: How close did last year’s Cardinals come to making the World Series?

9:53	Comment From Steel City Reader Please provide a one-sentence overview of RA9-WAR

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: WAR based on ERA instead of FIP

9:53	Comment From greg Think Olt gets called up soon or is he in AAA for the rest of the season?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe a September promotion but he’s got Triple-A stuff to figure out

9:54	Comment From _David_ What would a fair Kyle Seager extension look like?

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see. One more cheap year, then three years of arbitration, then free agency

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe 5/$27 million? Bump it up to $30 million? That’s just a guess on my part

9:55	Comment From Justin Any out of the blue trades gonna happen before the deadline?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Plenty will be discussed and hinted at on rumors pages

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: If you’re asking for a prediction, well, what’s the definition of “out of the blue”?

9:56	Comment From Eddie Re: The Garza trade, which pitcher is the ‘interesting prospect’ and which is the ‘bit piece’?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Edwards is interesting, Grimm is a bit piece with back-of-rotation value

9:56	Comment From Guest Any Theo-Hoyer moves so far that you have not liked? Even the Edwin deal is not that bad.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe there was a little one in there somewhat but by and large they’ve been FanGraphs-friendly

9:57	Comment From Jays fan Will Jonathan Villar be the Astros SS in 2014?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Probably at least a lot of the time

9:57	Comment From Orange You’re put in a room with Ryan Braun and are allowed to ask him 1 question and he must answer truthfully. What do you ask?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Have you ever looked at bestiality porn?

9:57	Comment From greg Do you think the Cubs can turn Justin Grimm into a decent major league pitcher like they did with Travis Wood?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Grimm has a lower xFIP than Wood over 17 starts

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: He’s already a pretty decent major league pitcher

9:58	Comment From alex What do you think of Eduardo Nunez? Would you rather have him or Stephen Drew rest of season?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Every time I try to convince myself to like Eduardo Nunez I look at his defensive statistics

9:59	Comment From Baseball Gods We are here to grant you one wish, Jeffrey, make it count, go:

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: May Felix Hernandez never go on the 60-day disabled list

9:59	Comment From Dan If you were a GM, how much would you push for anything the Brewers haven’t nailed down (Gomez, Segura, Lucroy I’m assuming) now that the Braun suspension has been levied?