Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 8/1/18

August 1, 2018

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: oooooooookay, done podcasting now

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Wednesday baseball chat

9:10	Jeff Sullivan: Next week, we’ll be back to normal, and I’ll reoccupy my standard Friday slot

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: This has been a hectic couple weeks

9:11	THE Average Sports Fan: Where you surprised the A’s didn’t make a move for a controllable Starting Pitcher?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: A little bit, yeah

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: More surprised the Brewers also didn’t

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: But pretty obviously, these teams didn’t think the pitchers available were worth the asking prices. The Brewers like their pitching more than the consensus, and the A’s probably figure they have enough to scrape by for now, with reinforcements arriving down the stretch or at the start of 2019

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Big question for the A’s might be Jesus Luzardo. He just got promoted to Triple-A after breezing through the Texas League. Can’t put too much pressure on him but there’s some chance he could make a difference in September

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners don’t have one of those

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: (The gap between them is back down to only one game)

9:14	divine chanteuse: So now that the Rays only have $10 million committed on the books for next season, they’re free to go hard after one of Machado/Harper, right?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I know you’re joking, and I recognize that it’s impossible, but then people also figured it was impossible that the Pirates would make a big trade splash

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: It’s 2018! Anything goes!

9:16

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Let’s take a second to acknowledge a sports-related thing that really matters: LeBron James opened a school for underprivileged kids, and is effectively subsidizing their entire education.

What baseball players are most likely to follow suit and perform a basic function of government for us?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Every team has a few. They don’t, of course, have LeBron James money. But they’re not all power-hungry monsters

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: After reading about Andrew Chafin the other day I could see him just building people houses

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Just like, hey, I’m bored, why don’t I build you a home

9:18

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Isn’t it a massive red flag that the Rays, who have a similar financial situation and competitive timeline to the Pirates, were willing to trade their controlled pitcher on a team-friendly deal at all? If the Rays thought they could “fix” Archer, they would have done it by now.

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I do think there’s some validity to this. Over and over I saw statements to the effect of, the Rays are more open about trading Archer than ever. That’s not a coincidence. His contract is still extremely team-friendly. They didn’t have to do this

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: But I don’t think Archer is on the verge of completely breaking down. The Rays might’ve just felt he got overexposed in the AL East. A lot of this just comes down to the fact the Pirates have something to play for in 2018. I think that’s what pushed them over the edge, and allowed for a trade we wouldn’t otherwise see between two such similar teams

9:20	Pablo’s BeltBuckle: Are there any trades we should look out for over the next month?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Yes

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think anything on the Justin Verlander level, though

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Yonder Alonso was traded last August

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Sean Rodriguez was traded last August

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Jay Bruce and Neil Walker were traded last August, and so on and so forth

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a list of players in front of me, but there will be activity. Keep an eye on the Giants if they start to fade

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Marco Estrada might go somewhere if he improves

9:25	James: Considering the returns for both players, if you were Atlanta, would you have paid the price for Archer? Or do you prefer the Gausman deal?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think the Gausman deal hurts very much. The Archer deal would’ve been tough

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Remember that we don’t even yet know the third piece involved

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: It’s funny, too — over the past three years, Archer has an ERA- of 101, and Gausman is at 98

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Archer, of course, has better peripherals, but if you truly believe he’s worse than his peripherals, then it’s easy to see Gausman as an alternative. Shouldn’t hurt to get him away from the Orioles’ pitcher-development program

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Gausman’s always felt like a guy who might benefit from new instruction

9:27	Frosty the Sandman: What are your thoughts of the Indians/Cardinals trade that involved only minor leaguers? Why do swaps of talent in the minors not happen more frequently?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Because teams believe in their own guys, and they’re invested in their own guys, and swapping minor leaguers isn’t something that advances a competitive window. So there’s no imbalance between a currently good team and a currently bad team

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: I like the Oscar Mercado pickup for Cleveland. I’m biased in favor of guys who are closer to the majors, but Mercado seems like he’s someone who could help really soon. Connel Capel and Jhon Torres, not so much

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: With that being said I don’t know if Mercado is actually a plus defensive CF. The speed, at least, is there

9:31	Perennial Ballboy Tryout: Did Mariners do enough at the deadline?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: Not much they could afford to do. Their farm system sucks. The bullpen is deeper now, and they will already have Cano coming back for like a month and a half

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Their competition is the A’s, and the A’s weren’t so busy, either. I imagine Dipoto will continue looking for a starter in August

9:33	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I have two questions. 1. What does “zero-tolerance” mean? 2. How dare Jeff Luhnow?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Luhnow would’ve been better off not saying anything at all

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: Twisted himself completely into knots. We all got the message as soon as the move itself happened

9:34	Kvn: I can’t believe the O’s had the balls to actually blow it up. 4 weeks ago I’d have put decent odds on them not executing a single trade successfully.

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: I’m not saying the Orioles are fixed, but they have at least started to behave like a normal organization. They’re even collecting international bonus-pool money. A new era is beginning

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: It’s going to be dark for a while, but the hardest part is already over

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: In a weird way, the ugly development years can be sort of exciting

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The ugly development years are when the Astros discovered Jose Altuve and Dallas Keuchel

9:37

Purple Mays Haze: Has the causality of ‘third time thru order’ been fully attributed? Is it because the pitcher is ‘tired’? Or is it because hitters have seen the full arsenal? (Or is it because there is a detected pitch sequencing pattern?) My suspicion is a little bit of all of it – but was wondering if there were definitive studies…

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/22156/baseball-progues…

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: “…the TTOP is not about fatigue. It is about familiarity. The more a batter sees a pitcher’s delivery and repertoire, the more likely he is to be successful against him.”

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Here’s a follow-up: https://mglbaseball.com/2016/02/29/does-familiarity-breed-contempt-or-…

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: “I believe that I have shown fairly strong evidence that the penalty that we see pitchers incur as the game wears on is mostly or wholly as a result of the TTO and not due to fatigue caused by an increasing pitch count.”

9:40	kevinthecomic: Do Verlander’s results over the last month or so indicate an injury and/or fatigue?

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: 30 innings, 2.70 ERA, 3 walks, 46 strikeouts

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: There was a four-homer game against the Tigers, but otherwise, he looks fantastic

9:41	Tony Womack: How do you evaluate the Yankees deadline deals? Seems like a rare instance where Cashman may not have come out on top.

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really get the Lance Lynn thing. Admittedly, I haven’t examined it for a closer look, and I don’t think Tyler Austin is important, but Lynn is bad

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Was also interesting to see the bullpen depleted, losing Warren, Gallegos, and Shreve

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Now, from the Yankees’ perspective, they added Britton and they added international spending money, and they’ve been good in the past about converting that international money into assets pretty quick

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: And with Britton, there just won’t be many high-leverage innings to go around for other pitchers, so the Yankees might’ve figured they could afford to sell from the bottom of the pen

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Happ was a modest overpay, but I don’t think McKinney is special, and the Yankees have long wanted to have his lefty arm pitching in New York

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Hard to meaningfully improve a team as good as the Yankees. If they’re right about Britton being back on track, they’re going to be a force

9:47	James: Are you buying that the change of leagues/divisions, better defense behind him, and having “better pitching coaches” will make Gausman pitch better for Atlanta than he did for Baltimore?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t believe anything here is a lock, and I’ll point out that Gausman’s career interleague ERA is 6.33

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: But he has pitched in baseball’s toughest division, and Baltimore does have a spotty track record of developing arms. I think there is a legitimate chance that the Braves make Gausman 5-10% better

9:49	Moltar: A dude at the bodega near my office told me today he was too ashamed to wear his Mets hat. It was the first time I’ve seen him without one during the season.

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I like how after that game it was a Nationals player who got designated for assignment

9:50	James: What three teams had the best moves at/around the deadline?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think the Indians did well

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I liked the Rays getting Pham

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: And for a bunch of reasons I liked the Blue Jays’ side of the Osuna swap

9:52	Tony Womack: Are you surprised that the Rockies stayed quiet at the deadline? They are firmly in the hunt

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: They could’ve used another position player. I bet they could’ve lured Jose Martinez

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: I get starting Ian Desmond or Gerardo Parra. I don’t get starting them both

9:54	v2micca: How is J.T. Realmuto still a Marlin? Catcher is a black hole for half of the teams with play-off aspirations. How could the Marlins not make a deal?

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: For one thing, I think the Marlins really do want to keep Realmuto around, and they want to make it clear to him they’re done blowing it up

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe they hope he can see some talent appearing around him in the bigs

9:56

Jeff Sullivan: For another thing, catchers are particularly hard to move for good value midseason. The Lucroy trade a few years ago was exceptional. Catchers are so important to a pitching staff and ideally you’d want to have that relationship beginning in spring. Realmuto is a better offseason trade candidate, if the Marlins’ extension overtures are turned away

9:57

HappyFunBall: So the Nats trade deadline was more interesting that I initially thought. They basically stood pat, sure, but the Kintzler trade seems to have been a disciplinary measure. Today Shawn Kelley was DFA for his little temper tantrum last night over being too good to pitch with a 24 run lead.

Do you suppose Davey Martinez is done being a nice guy? Or is Rizzo being the hard ass for him?

Also LOLMets.

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: This is one of those cases where it’s probably the smart move to defer to authority. The Nationals have particular knowledge about what Kintzler and Kelley were like, and if they believe those players were bad influences, it makes sense to subtract

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a coincidence this happened right after the Jeff Passan article at Yahoo; the Nationals might be trying to send a message to a number of people. We’ll see if it’s received!

9:59	v2micca: Most surprising player that will be put on waivers in the next month?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Almost everyone gets put on waivers in August

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Few of the good ones actually clear