Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/11/15

September 11, 2015

9:14	Comment From CONTENT I will now be provided.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: god damn right

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Time to baseball chat. About what? You decide! Except actually I decide

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: If you have questions about Fantex, I look forward to not being able to answer them very well

9:15	Comment From A Fan One often hears someone described as “A good baseball man” Any thoughts on what this actually means?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: An individual who has devoted his life to baseball and has no other remarkable skills

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Baseball men are terrified of no longer being allowed to be involved in baseball

9:16	Comment From Houzer Should I be dropping Lucroy and adding D’arnaud for next week?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know anything about fantasy baseball, but I do know that Lucroy recently had a concussion

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: So you have a choice between a concussed baseball player and a non-concussed baseball player

9:18	Comment From Guest at the end of the chat, can you share how many people posted the username of Bryce Harper and said something along the lines of “wheres my ring bro?”

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I can’t tell if posting this is going to make the number higher or lower

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: In fairness to Harper, he sure as hell didn’t seem wrong

9:19	Comment From anon Jeff, Don’t forget about September 11th!

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Who could?

9:19	Comment From Cashmere Taco going off your article yesterday, is there any award that actually should be separated by league? Cy Young maybe, because of the DH?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: Makes sense to have two rookies of the year, kind of, since rookies basically never get traded

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: But maybe it should just be part of the criteria that players are judged by the leagues in which they end up. Helps to clarify any MVP or Cy Young conversations

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: To be totally honest though, I haven’t given this a lot of thought, because I don’t give awards a lot of thought, because I don’t care

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Wonder if I’ll ever be in the BBWAA

9:22	Comment From blue sky is really blue What’s your favorite shape for clouds to look like?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: alligator

9:23	Comment From Linus Tell me of Yoenis Cespedes’ upcoming contract and whether or not the team that signs him will regret it.

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: I’ve given up on trying to figure out if contracts will be regretted or not, since baseball money is insane and Nelson Cruz looks like an MVP hitter now. But Cespedes will get something enormous, maybe in the area of 7/140

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: No qualifying offer on the way, which is a small factor

9:24	Comment From CRPerry13 Somebody on Twitter is whining at me about a “40/40” player like Springer leading off for the Astros. Thoughts on sluggers in nontraditional lineup spots?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Over the equivalent of a full season, career Springer is 33/19

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t mind sluggers in nontraditional lineup spots, provided those spots are higher than lower. Springer projects as the best hitter on that team, so maybe he should be at No. 2 or No. 4, but there’s nothing really wrong with leadoff

9:27	Comment From RotoCurious Thoughts on Erv Santana’s recent hot streak? SSS, or has he developed a K pitch?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Back-to-back big strikeout games against the Astros. The Astros have the highest strikeout rate in the American League

9:27	Comment From Dak The Jays beat the 2001 Mariners record for most wins in a season this year or next? yes or probably?

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: If the Jays win out this year, they’ll fall 14 wins short

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: But they’d be tied with the 2001 Athletics!

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: The wild-card Athletics finished 102-60. They faced the Yankees in the ALDS, and though the Yankees finished 95-65, they got home-field advantage since they won the division. You wonder if that advantage made the difference in the series

9:30	Comment From Brian I am a fan of the Seattle Mariners. Due to a cross country move some years ago, I am now also a fan of the Washington Nationals. Question: Is there another combination of two-team-fandom that has been more soul-crushing this year

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: those are bad, but you could swap in the Red Sox

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: But probably not, since at least the Red Sox fans can lean upon previous successes in the hard times

9:33	Comment From Chubs Why do the yankees have a nerd score of 10 and the Cubs 5? Are people really that disinterested in the Cubs? They have similar post season odds

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: Work through your own answer here! http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:33	Comment From Guest What is happening to Cardinals pitching. Regression past the mean?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: At some point today I’ll have a post on JABO about this, sort of

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: But the Cardinals still have the lowest second-half ERA in the National League

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Over the last 30 days, they’re 8th in the majors. That’s probably more reflective of how good they actually are

9:37	Comment From Scotty Provide me this content: Pretending Cespedes wasn’t up against an historic season by Harper, but just against, say, Rizzo and McCutcheon for the NLMVP. How good would he have to be to win the award? Where would you have put 2015 Cespedes in the 2014 MVP race against Kershaw?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: If you’re asking about the actual voters, there are too many who would leave Cespedes off the list because he was swapped between leagues. Consider them award-voting “purists”

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: But there isn’t a great precedent. In 2008, Manny Ramirez finished fourth in NL MVP voting, but he didn’t get a single first-place nod

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: In 2003, Shannon Stewart finished fourth in AL MVP voting, but he got just three first-place votes

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Given how the voting has always gone, Cespedes doesn’t have a chance

9:39	Comment From Bryce Harper bro, wheres my ring?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: That’s one

9:39	Comment From Ryan Any thoughts/predictions on who wins the AL West?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Astros; are better

9:40	Comment From Joey Votto TIME OUT PLEASE

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Just on reputation, I’m not sure there are many players considered less likely to blow up like that

9:40	Comment From Bartolo Colon should i start a playoff game

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Probably not more than one

9:40	Comment From TKDC I’d rather hear that from Harper than my girlfriend.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: She loves you!

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Or she loves jewelry.

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: Pretty important to find out which

9:41	Comment From The Cincinnati Kid Would a pitcher with 60 grade stuff across the board, but also 60 grade tools as a hitter and defense grad as a 60 overall or higher (due to the extra skills he brings to the table?)

9:43

Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Kiley would be better for this, but I’ll give it a go. I imagine he’d still be 60 overall, because you’re just focusing on one set of relevant skills. And realistically, one of the sets of skills would atrophy when the player focuses on the other. But in the hypothetical, you’d have an overall 60 who teams would evaluate a little higher than that

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Like, we’ve seen Bochy use Bumgarner as a pinch-hitter. That should be a little bit of extra credit

9:43	Comment From TKDC How about one rookie hitter of the year and one rookie pitcher of the year?

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: I’d be for it, although people would complain about the inconsistency given the league-split other awards

9:44	Comment From blue sky is really blue Who’s the best hitter: Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, or Joey Votto?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: This is a cruel trick. Rest-of-season projections have those four at the top, separated by all of five wOBA points

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I’m going to give it to Cabrera — he’s doing it in the American League

9:47

Comment From Questions
The Cespedes for MVP thing got me thinking: lets say a player puts up absurd numbers for the NL, say 10 WAR by the July deadline, and the players gets traded to the AL, where they proceed to put up reasonable numbers, say 3 WAR over the rest of the season. That puts them at 10 NL WAR, 3 AL WAR, and 13 total. Lets also say that the no one else in the NL put up more than 5 WAR all year. Should the guy that got traded to the AL win the NL MVP? Should he even be considered?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: I’d give him the MVP. Obviously I could be convinced otherwise, and it’s a wildly fantastic hypothetical, but under that scenario, you’d have a guy twice as valuable in four months as the next-best player in six months. That’s an unbelievable, MVP player

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: And if his AL team caught fire, you could have the same guy conceivably getting MVP votes in two leagues at one time!

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: It’s so weird and broken and nonsensical but I love it

9:51	Comment From gary christ Do you think Jackie Bradley Jr. is a for-real this good player, or you think Dombrowski’s gonna sell high?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: Among the players Bradley has homered against this year: Tom Gorzelanny, Jesus Sucre, Logan Verrett, Adam Morgan, Ryan Tepera

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: According to ESPN Home Run Tracker, none of his homers would’ve left all 30 ballparks

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: He’s clearly improved, and he’s clearly earned himself an extended shot, but I imagine he’s going to be moved somewhere else. Maybe San Diego. Good time to trade the guy

9:54	Comment From Dylan Can you make me feel better about the A’s chances for the next couple years? I need some hope right now.

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Smart front office, strong BaseRuns performance this year, and right now the Rangers occupy a wild-card slot, with the Twins a game behind

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: There’s not a team in the AL that’s just totally screwed for the short-term future. If anyone, maybe the Tigers, but probably not

9:55	Comment From Joey Votto i for one welcome our robot umpire overlords

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: it only makes sense given that we’ve already quietly introduced robot players

9:56	Comment From Christian Is there any way Angelos can be convinces to let go of Duquette? he’a about the only “experienced” GM that has even a glimmer of being available that I wouldn’t mind the Mariners hiring.

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t mind Dipoto

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: I think I’d actually support Dipoto

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Does he count as sufficiently experienced?

9:58	Comment From Henry Using your own definition of NL/AL MVP, your picks?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: Harper/Donaldson. Pretty boring

9:59	Comment From TKDC Have any thoughts on the Rose bobblehead promotion, in regards to hypocrisy?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: http://espn.go.com/mlb/stor…

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: “The Reds worked with Rose on the bobblehead, but sources say the team did not have to get approval from Major League Baseball for the promotion.”