Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 9/4/15

September 4, 2015

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Well it’s Friday, which means a late start to this scheduled baseball chat

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s talk Matt Harvey shutdown!

9:13	Jeff Sullivan: Or literally anything else

9:14	Comment From Phillies113 In the second half of 2015, Joey Votto’s walk rate is higher than his strikeout rate by DOUBLE DIGITS (29.1% vs 16.7%)! How bananas is Joey Votto right now?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I love this. Will probably write about it early next week. Votto has basically stopped swinging at inside pitches. Umpires don’t like to call strikes on inside pitches to lefties. So Votto is ahead in more counts, which means he can focus even more on the pitches he wants to hit…

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Also, Votto has gone back to hitting the ball the other way, after a spell of pull power. He’s not perfect, but he’s close

9:14	Comment From Jeff in T.O. Do you have super powers or are you some sort of witch? How else do you explain the timing of your Goins article the other day?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: I couldn’t believe it when I came back to my computer later on and saw that he homered after I scheduled that article

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: That’s how an article about Ryan freakin Goins ends up carrying the week, traffic-wise

9:15	Comment From Justin Assuming the Mariners move to a more traditional front office, what moves do you anticipate happening this offseason?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: A more traditional front office?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll find a catcher somewhere. Obviously the bullpen will be a priority of theirs. I imagine they’ll try hard to re-sign Iwakuma, and I imagine he’ll be willing to do that

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: Strongly doubt you’ll see a wholesale tear-down; too much present talent, not enough future talent

9:17	Comment From Len Latest rumors for the Mariners GM spot – to be taken with a grain of salt, I’m sure – are DiPoto. What can one glean from his time with the Angels regarding his approach, and what can be chalked up to Moreno/Scioscia?

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Dipoto is a smart man. Progressive enough, and I’m sure he’s learned a few lessons about making concessions and compromises. Wouldn’t have that strong managerial figure in Seattle, but would potentially have to deal with meddling ownership, if less visibly than in Anaheim

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: The Angels’ plan lately has basically been Mike Trout + mediocre roster, and Dipoto had his misses, but my sense is he’d be a good upgrade for Seattle

9:18	Comment From James G If you’re the Blue Jays, do you like the Rangers or Astros?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Neither; I’d like the Blue Jays

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: But the Astros are better than the Rangers

9:19	Comment From Marc I eagerly await for next next Monday’s Sullivan post – The Return of the Stroman

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: PITCH COMPS

9:19	Comment From James G If you’re the Yankees do you like the Rangers or Astros?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: The same question?

9:19	Comment From Aron Why is Seattle seen as such an attractive GM position? Or is it just that they are being compared to the Brewers?

9:20

Jeff Sullivan: I mean, almost any GM position is attractive, just because there aren’t many of them. But Seattle has a good park, and good revenue flow, and the perception is that the team is something of a sleeping giant, market-wise. A good Mariners team can win that whole region over. It’s happened before, and at some point the Seahawks will suck again

9:20	Comment From Houzer E Rodriguez gonna dominate the Phillies this weekend?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:20	Comment From CTMike A few weeks ago Dodgers replaced 3rd base coach to Roenicke. Is 3rd base coach effectiveness all word of mouth/reputation or are there any metrics to evaluate a 3rd base coach?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: If there are metrics, I’m sure they’re not super advanced, but it’s worth noting the Dodgers have been a pretty lousy baserunning team. I don’t know how much of that was on the third-base coach, but it’s a data point

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: From a quick scan of an article, the idea is indeed to elevate the baserunning performance

9:24	Comment From Willy Hi Jeff! Very general question: what September call ups do you think could make the biggest impact the rest of the way?

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: In general, or in the playoff race? Like, Hector Olivera is sort of a big deal, but the Braves are terrible

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: Baez will be interesting to observe. Gallo gives the Rangers some more potent depth

9:26	Comment From June Does Ichiro reach 3000 hits? He’s agonizingly close, but agonizingly not that good anymore.

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the compromise ends up being he spends next year in Miami again. He wouldn’t start, but he could serve on the bench, and it wouldn’t matter that he’s bad now

9:26	Comment From hscer How much sense would the average of a player’s UZR, his DRS, and 0 make as a defensive measurement?

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: Obviously rudimentary, but altogether not bad

9:27	Comment From Jonah Since the return of Josh Harrison and Jordy Mercer, Clint Hurdle has left Jung-Ho Kang out of his lineup 1/3 of the time. This is insane, right? In what universe is it a good idea to play Jordy Mercer and Aramis Ramirez instead of Kang?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: A big part of this, presumably, is that Kang isn’t conditioned to playing so long a season. So they want to make sure that they can keep him somewhat fresh. It’s not a bad idea, and it’s not like the Pirates are in jeopardy of getting eliminated

9:28

Comment From Dustin
One time, a kid in my kindergarten class asked me how to spell “pies” so he could write it on the chalkboard. I told him p-i-s-s and then laughed when he got in trouble. Have my last two months of Braves fandom been some sort of cosmic comeuppance for something wrong I did 25 years ago?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Why did he want to write “pies” on the chalkboard?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Something doesn’t check out

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: I cannot believe there is a team with a worse run differential than the Phillies.

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Since the All-Star break, the Braves have a pythagorean Win% of .228. Next-worst in the National League: .421

9:30	Comment From Ryan Astros or Rangers, who wins the division?

9:30	Jeff Sullivan: Astros

9:32	Comment From Guest Hey Jeff can you give me any rail recommmendations for Rainier or Olympic in the 10-15 mile range?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: I assume you mean trail recommendations

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: I cannot give you rail recommendations

9:33

Jeff Sullivan: I’m biased in favor of Rainier over Olympic. Olympic is nice, but Rainier is spectacular. Provided the weather is okay. Make sure the weather is okay. Then this can be your resource: http://www.nps.gov/mora/pla… I haven’t hiked nearly all of them so you can probably be better off choosing on your own

9:34	Comment From Josh I How do you see the AL West shaping out going forward – say, 2017? Angels/Mariners will likely fall off, Rangers/Astros look strong for the future, and the A’s seem somewhere in between. Your thoughts?

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: Astros are well-positioned. They’ll be hard to take down. The Rangers are also in decent shape, but they have that Fielder money, and that Choo money, and that Andrus money…

9:35	Jeff Sullivan: They’ll survive, but the Astros seem like the organization to beat. The A’s will probably always be somewhere within a standard deviation of .500

9:36

Comment From Lars
Asked Paul this earlier in the week but he said he wasn’t the best to ask. Thought I’d try my luck with you: Would a hitter who gets a doink single through the right side off a bad pitcher that scores two runs because the RF has a weak arm see more of an uptick in his WAR than a hitter who hits a line drive single off the top of the wall to score one run?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: As far as WAR is concerned, a single is a single, no matter how it happens. That obviously isn’t perfect, but there’s little to be gained from making it even more super complicated. Those little adjustments tend to even out over time

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: Quality of competition, though, would be a worthwhile adjustment at some point

9:37	Comment From C how excited are you for marcus stroman to make his return?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, I’m not losing my shit or anything, but I’m happy

9:38	Comment From Guest What do you think is the point where teams look past off the field issues? If a guy is a domestic abuser, but consistently puts up 6+ WAR with no signs of slowing down, are teams going to balk at signing him? At what point do fans not care?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Milton Bradley kept playing until he’d basically demonstrated that he couldn’t hit anymore

9:39

Jeff Sullivan: With young players, teams will give them shots, figuring maybe it’s just immaturity. With older players, it’s more likely to be a real problem, but if they’re good enough, they’ll get chances, because most teams figure everything will be forgiven if there are dingers. It’s not the brightest side of baseball, but it is what it is

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe the situation will be a little different now that there’s a domestic-abuse policy. But generally, character issues become less important, roster-management wise, as talent gets higher

9:41	Comment From Sam How is it that the offensive RAA on the teams page do not sum to zero but seem to be skewed far negative?

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: http://www.fangraphs.com/le…

9:41	Jeff Sullivan: ?

9:42

Comment From Danny
I was checking out the pitch f/x leaderboards for z-mov “rise” for pitchers and noticed that an insane amount of Rays pitchers are in the top 25 four seam fastballs with the most rise. Is this something they are teaching their pitchers, and what is the benefit of throwing riseballs?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Funny you mention that! http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:44

Jeff Sullivan: The Rays seem to have a thing for these pitchers who generate a lot of backspin on their fastballs. Those are good fastballs to elevate, and the general idea is that the want fastballs up and offspeed stuff down. Difficult for the hitter to know what’s coming, and hitters these days continue to concentrate lower and lower

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Give me a moment to run a quick query

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe not that quick a query…

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Here we are. Rays pitchers have thrown 54% of their fastballs in the upper half. Second-highest in baseball (Nationals, 55%). Median is 46%

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Diamondbacks are alone at the bottom at 39%

9:47	Comment From Zonk What direction should CIN and MIL take this offseason in a brutal NL Central? Re-load, or re-build?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Both of them probably ought to rebuild. Not convinced either will. Would be fascinating to see the Reds dump Votto, Chapman, Frazier, etc, but they’ll almost certainly never do it

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: But boy would this ever be an opportunity to check in on the potential Votto market

9:48	Comment From Houzer what will the Puig acquisition package look like this offseason? And do the Tigers have the pieces to make it happen?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I’d be surprised if the Tigers made something happen there without it just being a lateral move. They’re trying to assemble more young players, and Puig would cost them two or three

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: I think he gets moved for two younger, lesser-proven players. Maybe a third is in there, of less value. Big-league-ready sorts. It’ll be a difficult trade for both sides

9:50	Comment From Danny Do you think a more patient approach to the plate for hitters (low swing rate) is superior than an aggressive approach (high swing rate)?

9:51

Jeff Sullivan: It’s all aesthetic. For any individual given hitter, there’s a better approach, but both types of approaches can work, and it’s all about a guy’s skillset. Patient hitters in the majors are better as patient hitters than aggressive hitters. Aggressive hitters in the majors are better as aggressive hitters than patient hitters

9:51	Comment From ed Jays or Yanks. Please tell me who wins the division

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Jays; are better

9:51	Comment From Gene Who is the best Seager?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Kyle is presently the best Seager

9:52	Comment From Mandatory High Socks Who’s your favorite A’s pitching rookie this year? Graveman or Bassitt? Also, the A’s are LOADED with young pitching which makes me fear for Sonny’s safety.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: They’re definitely loaded with young, adequate pitching. They’re not loaded with young, quality pitching

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Bassitt is kind of neat, and I’m interested to see if Aaron Brooks is worth anything

9:55	Comment From Zonk What team is in the biggest hole right now in terms of 3-year competitive outlook?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: Difficult question, but could be the Brewers. Alternatively, could be the Rockies — they just can’t do anything consistently. Neither is positioned well. The Reds are also down here in the conversation

9:56	Comment From Zonk Can you evaluate the job Rick Hahn has done this year as White Sox GM? Should they try another reload, or is it time for a teardown?

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Overall, I think Hahn is fine — he just tried to get this team to competitiveness ahead of schedule. It has more or less played up/down to expectation. Good core pieces remain in place but they obviously need more depth in lots of places

9:58	Comment From BK How effective would Dickey’s knuckleball be if he could throw a 95 mph fastball, I’ve always fantasized of someone like Chris Archer adding a nasty knuckler

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: I mean, you’d think that would be unfair. It’s also, unfortunately, unrealistic — the only people who take the time to master a knuckleball are the people who need to because the rest of their pitches suck

9:58	Comment From The Cincinnati Kid If Bumgarner went into FA this offseason, how much extra money would his bat fetch?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Not actually that much. But it would be hard to notice anyway next to all the money set aside for his pitching

9:59	Comment From Hack Wilson Hypothetically you have an outfield of Buxton, Hanley, and Billy Hamilton. Would you play Buxton and Hamilton in right and left center and play with 5 infielders?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: With a good number of hitters, I think almost certainly