Jesus Did Not Come to Save The Bronx
After months of hype, discussion, and lobbying, Jesus Montero has finally joined the New York Yankees. With rosters expanding for September, the Yankees have called their top prospect up to join the big club, and the rumblings are that he’ll be in the line-up tonight, serving as the DH against Jon Lester in Boston. That might seem like quite a way to make a debut, but Montero is viewed as quite a talent – as one team official told Joel Sherman, “By the playoffs, he will be our best DH option.”
Certainly, Montero is a talented kid. He’s been ranked as one of the sport’s 50 best prospects by Baseball America for each of the last three years, rising from #38 in 2009 to #4 in 2010 to #3 before this season began. He’s climbed the minor league ladder quickly – he’s already accumulated almost 1,000 plate appearances in Triple-A – despite the fact that he won’t turn 22 until November, and his career minor league line of .301/.366/.501 shows a hitter with significant promise.
However, despite the hype and the hope for the future, I’d suggest that Yankees fans be realistic in their expectations of what Montero can bring to the team this year – he’s probably not going to be the savior they’ve been looking for.
Montero has been a highly rated prospect because he’s offered the potential for significant offense from the catching position, a spot where you just don’t have many kids who can actually swing the stick. However, for this year’s Yankees, he’s not a catcher. When asked about his role down the stretch, Joe Girardi said this:
“I could DH him, and I wouldn’t be afraid to put him behind the plate,” Girardi said. “I don’t know if I would start him in a game, just because the relationship between pitchers and catchers takes time to build. Our catchers are a lot more familiar with the pitchers than him, but it’s not a guy that I’d be afraid to put in.”
Despite the “not afraid to put him in” rhetoric, the key line is that Girardi essentially says outright that he won’t start a game with Montero as the catcher. That means his only chance to catch is if he’s a late-game replacement, and with two right-handed catchers on the roster, it’s unlikely that Girardi would send the also right-handed Montero up to pinch hit for either of them. He might be willing to use Montero behind the plate in a mop-up role or in case of an injury, but the plan seems clear – Montero will serve as a DH in September.
Being a DH rather than a catcher changes the offensive calculus to an extreme degree. Rather than just needing to be better than Francisco Cervelli, he now needs to outperform at least one member of the Jorge Posada/Andruw Jones platoon. Regardless of how high you are on Montero’s future, that’s a really tall order.
Against righties, Posada has actually performed pretty well, coming in at a .272/.348/.465 line that is good for a .354 wOBA. Montero, against Triple-A righties, has hit just .273/.330/.398 this year. It’s not bad luck, either – only 20 of his 83 hits against RHPs have gone for extra bases, and he’s racked up three strikeouts for every walk. Put simply, he hasn’t shown that he can hit quality right-handed pitching yet, and Posada is actually doing a pretty good job against RHPs this year.
Against lefties, Montero has performed significantly better. He’s crushed them this year, hitting .328/.392/.647 with 18 of his 38 hits going for extra bases. He’s even drawing walks and avoiding strikeouts against LHPs, as he’s shown that he can do a number on Triple-A southpaws. However, Andruw Jones is doing the same thing at the Major League level. Against LHPs, Jones is hitting .276/.377/.543, good for a .399 wOBA. Put simply, he doesn’t need to be replaced, and it’s unlikely that Montero could perform any better than Jones has in that role.
So, to get Montero’s bat in the line-up as a DH, the Yankees will likely either have to downgrade against righties or push Andruw Jones out to left field against southpaws. Andruw’s not a disaster out in left field or anything, but putting him out there means that you’re putting Brett Gardner on the bench, and while Gardner isn’t an offensive star against LHPs, he’s still one of the very best defensive outfielders in the sport, and putting Jones out there represents a very real downgrade defensively.
Can Montero provide more offense against LHPs than Gardner can? Yeah, probably. Can he provide enough to also make up for the lost defensive value by putting Gardner on the bench? Maybe, if he doesn’t take too long to adjust to Major League pitching and is a little more selective in what he swings at. Can he do all this while adjusting to life as a DH, when evidence shows that hitters underperform their true talent levels when being asked to not play the field? Again, maybe, but all of the sudden, this potential upgrade seems a lot less certain.
If Montero adjusts to the Majors, and if he adjusts to DH’ing, he might make the Yankees marginally better against left-handers. There’s little evidence that he’s ready to usurp Posada as the regular DH against right-handers, however, and given a limited role of the light half of a platoon DH, it’s hard to see Montero making a real significant impact on the Yankees down the stretch.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Prior to this year, Montero had a pretty large reverse split. He has hit significantly better against righties than against lefties throughout his whole minor league career before this year.
Good point.
Yeah, I was going to ask if Dave is really using single year splits. He could at least estimate Montero’s true split.
Reverse splits are extremely uncommon. I suspect Dave was simply discounting the data because it isn’t extraordinary enough to support such an extraordinary conclusion.
What does the Bronx need to be saved from?
The Red Sox?
No, just their fans.
I’m pretty sure it was a play on his name (i.e. Christ).
Well, regardless of his immediate impact, as a Yankees fan I am very excited to finally see him play. He does bring a little youth to this veteran lineup, which is refreshing.
Woosh
Cloverfield 2.
Ha Ha Ha
being to full of themselves!
Oh, for the days when the idea of Andruw Jones as a defensive downgrade would have been absurd.
While I agree with the article, I must say you’re a lot kinder to Montero here than I might have suspected.
Yeah, I thought the same thing.
Just looking at Montero’s AAA stats, it seems that there has been a slight decline nearly across the board in 2011 compared to 2010. His BB%, ISO, and wOBA have all decreased, while his K% has gone up. Not extremely alarming differentials in any of the stats, but it’s something to consider.
I read that since the start of June his BB% has been around 12%. His power should play better in a hitters park like Yankee Stadium, especially because of his great power to all fields. He’s hit a ton of homeruns lately so he should have the same power projection as always.
Yeah look at his monthly splits and you’ll see that in 2010 and 2011 he was much better in the second half.
The stats were a lot worse across the board for most of the season. He’s been on a tear for the last month or so and that’s helped to cover it up.
Considering how bad Posada has hit this season (-0.3 WAR, 92 wRC+) I initially thought the comment that outplaying half of the Posada/Jones platoon ‘was a really tall order’ was sarcastic. But I guess Georgie still has a little left in the tank.
Still, it seems a bit odd to have 2 non-catching catchers on the roster.
Yeah, if only rosters expanded on September first to allow teams to be flexible on the types of players they have with the club.
Seriously what does he have to do to be a significant upgrade at DH. The Yankees have a .243/.329/.434 triple slash from their DH this season. Francisco Cervelli is posting a .265/.328/.354 catching about once a week. Now I’m not pretending that a rookie in his first month in the majors is definitely going to out do those numbers, but considering his talent level it’s a distinct possibility. As for the familiarity with the pitchers. Start him with Ivan Nova on the mound. He has as much experience catching Nova last year in AAA as Martin does this season.
“Seriously what does he have to do to be a significant upgrade at DH.”
Did you not just read the article? It is spelled out in plain english.
If only Miroslav Satan were a Red Sox pitcher.
Wouldn’t his name be Damien?
I hope someone named Jesus makes the NHL and gets traded to the Devils, or crushes them with a hat trick or something. Haha
If Jesus were a goalie, wouldn’t it be perfect?
Sorta of like the old joke “Jesus saves … and Gretzky puts in the rebound”.
My all time favorite headline was “Sabres Getting Help From Satan”
In a 1930s World Series, Dizzy Dean was struck in the head with a line drive. Headline in the next day’s paper was “Dean’s Head Examined: Found Nothing”.
Classic.
Jim Gott has faced Tim Teufel before. The devil went 2 for 9 with a HR and 2 RBI plus 2BBs.
He could be the next Ken Phelps or Kevin Mass. For sure.
Maybe my brain isn’t working all that well, but I’m trying to recall the last great prospect that projected as a DH?
He’s only projected as a DH because first base is occupied for the next millenium by Teixeira. So he can be compared to guys like Frank Thmas as well (DHs playing first base).
Billy Butler? Or, like Mike R. said, any bad-defense first basemen should be included as well. Including Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, who I’d say worked out pretty well.
Billy Butler is a pretty good offensive comparison to me. I’m more optimistic (seemingly) than most though that Jesus Montero will be passable for a time behind home plate though.
I’m not insulting Montero, I just cannot recall another bigtime prospect that didn’t have a fielding position attached to his name.
I almost always hear/read that he’ll never catch in MLB, and I’ve never read that he could fill in at 1B. I always just hear/read “He’s a DH, He’s a DH, He’s a DH”. I was looking for more information.
Even the likes of Thome (#3B, 1B, DH), Edgar, Baines, Thomas, etc had a fielding position as their initial primary.
David Ortiz is probably a guy that could have always been listed as a DH.
It is possible that Montero will never fill in at 21B because they have other guys (Swish) that can do that.
It’s always been “DH with the Yanks because Teixeira blocks him at first.”
He’s actually reasonably athletic, just entirely too big to stay behind the plate. I’ve always wondered why RF wasn’t a possibility.
HeyZeus Montero
This is the only funny joke to be made about Montero’s first name.
That’s so Die Hard 4 already.
Of course a minor league callup is not going to have a massive impact on a ~30 game stretch (especially at DH). But by assigning a counter viewpoint, disproving it makes it sound a lot less obvious. Would calling up Mike Trout or Lawrie or (fill in the blank) be a savior for any team at DH for a one month stretch?
Seems like the article was written and then a generalized counter viewpoint (Yankee fans think Montero will be the savior this year) was created to dress it up. Is that even the general Yankees fan viewpoint or is it just a convenient strawman for the article?
As dumb as many mainstream Yankees fans (and baseball fans in general) can be, I don’t think anyone expects Montero to be a “savior.” Not to an offense that leads the league in runs and is all but guaranteed a playoff spot.
“Would calling up Mike Trout or Lawrie or (fill in the blank) be a savior for any team at DH for a one month stretch?”
That depends on what the team had at DH before, obviously. If they had garbage, then possibly yes. If they had solid production, then no.
That’s sort of what this article was about, see – the relative value of his production. The Savior thing is a joke about his name that’s pretty hard to miss (or so I thought).
It doesn’t really depend… over 30 games at DH, the impact is minor.
Plug Ortiz into the DH spot over Posada ~(4 WAR), you’re talking less than a win over a 30 day period. That’s an accomplished bat which is top 10? (at least top 20) in the majors… and that amounts to less than a 1 win impact.
The savior thing was a joke in the title… when it is repeated in the article and assigned to represent some generalized viewpoint of a fanbase I think it ceases to be humor and it turns into hyperbole to dress up a captain obvious conclusion.
I’m not sure why Dave is trying to make a Sept callup into something that is done out of need or an attempt to significantly alter the outcome of 30 games. It’s just a callup and even though I’m not a Yankees fan I’d have a hard time believing the mainstream view in that fanbase is anything other than “well it will be nice to see what he can do” with the typical irrational minority saying “he will help win the division and make a major impact”.
@joe:
Well, he does also quote the “team official” who says he’ll be their best DH candidate by the playoffs. The rest of the article seems like a response to that quote.
dave has had a long standing personal bias against montero since the Smoak trade, this is just more of the same
he’d never admit he was wrong, i used to like reading him but hisbirrational hate for montero soured me on him
The move is about 2012 as much as it is about 2011. Let the kid get his feet wet in a division race.
He really needs a challenge too. When you leave a kid in the minors for too long they get bored (ask Mike Axisa) and don’t play with passion. Not to say that his head isn’t on straight. This is just an issue that can arise with any prospect.
“By the playoffs, he will be our best DH option.”
By waiting till September 1 to call him up, isn’t he ineligible for the playoffs?
No. The Yankees have position players on the DL. He can replace those who were hurt. Same for any pitcher called up if there are pitchers on the DL.
It’s how K-Rod was eligible for the postseason in 2002
I believe they’ve even made that easier, you can replace pitchers with position players and position players with pitchers now, unless the DL replacement is made during a postseason series.
Seriously so disappointed. Thought this was going to be about Brett Lawrie and the NYC series starting tomorrow.
Montero had to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason anyways, so the Yanks had little reason to keep him in the minors at this point. The truth is they want to see if he can be a fit to start vs LHP in the playoffs, and this is his audition. If the Yankees face Texas, they’ll see two lefy starters. In other words, I believe this ‘experiment’ is more than just a test drive for 2012.
Jesus struck out for our wins.
Jesus can only do his job when he’s a closer. But the Yankees already have a supernatural figure in that job.
Dave has been a Montero basher for years, so dont let his negative spin fool you,He praised the Mariners for getting Smoak over montero and a year and a half later we see smoak is a poor hitter and a strikeout machine.
Dave is just trying to save face. as the years go by I for one will be waiting to see if dave admits he was wrong
And if he DH’s for Jones and Jones plays a little LF some of those games there’s no reason Gardner doesn’t give Granderson a day off also against an LHP.