Jose Altuve: Power Hitter
He’s listed at a generous 5-foot-6, and he’s never hit more than 15 homers, so when you look up and see that Jose Altuve has hit five home runs already this year, you really just want to shrug and sing a song of sample size. But if you’ve been watching for longer, you’ll have noticed that this has been a long time coming, and that under the hood we find reasons to believe that this young man is just growing into his power stroke.
Last year, Altuve added a leg kick that improved his ability to leverage his frame into more power. “I’m hitting the ball harder, not as many singles, more power,” he told me last year when we talked about the change. Starting the process earlier with a leg kick also helped him recognize pitches earlier, which helped keep his strikeout rate down even as he hit for more power.
A quick look at what the change has looked like for Altuve. First, his swing in 2012:
And then again in 2015:
Another part of hitting for power is lifting the ball. Altuve has quietly increased his fly-ball percentage every year he’s been in the big leagues. Watch his ground-ball rate (in green) take that dive:
In more new-fangled language, he’s upped his launch angle over time, and he’s continued that process this year. He’s already moved his launch angle from 9.2 degrees on average last year to 10.8 so far this year. And the percentage of his balls in play in the ideal home-run range (25-30 degrees) plus ideal line-drive range (10-25 degrees) has increased from 28% last year to 40% this year.
And the rest of the picture is how hard he’s hitting the ball. Not only is Altuve ninth in baseball in exit velocity, he’s improved more than anyone. Here are the players who’ve recorded at least 30 balls in play this year — significant because exit velocity stabilizes around 40-50 balls in play — and improved their exit velocity the most over last year.
| Player | 2015 BIP | 2016 BIP | 2015 Exit Velo | 2016 Exit Velo | Difference |
| Jose Altuve | 530 | 44 | 86.2 | 94.5 | 8.3 |
| J.J. Hardy | 278 | 33 | 87.9 | 94.2 | 6.3 |
| Scooter Gennett | 255 | 33 | 85.1 | 90.8 | 5.7 |
| Derek Norris | 335 | 31 | 87.5 | 93.0 | 5.5 |
| David Freese | 298 | 39 | 89.4 | 94.8 | 5.4 |
| Kole Calhoun | 424 | 35 | 86.4 | 91.6 | 5.2 |
| Ryan Howard | 310 | 33 | 91.7 | 96.8 | 5.1 |
| Nick Markakis | 452 | 42 | 89.1 | 94.1 | 5.0 |
| Mike Moustakas | 406 | 41 | 90.0 | 94.2 | 4.2 |
| Yasmany Tomas | 252 | 34 | 90.2 | 94.4 | 4.2 |
| B.J. Upton | 123 | 33 | 88.2 | 92.3 | 4.1 |
| Carlos Gonzalez | 371 | 46 | 90.9 | 95.0 | 4.1 |
| Starlin Castro | 408 | 39 | 86.6 | 90.4 | 3.8 |
| Adonis Garcia | 148 | 32 | 89.5 | 93.0 | 3.5 |
| Jean Segura | 389 | 42 | 87.2 | 90.7 | 3.5 |
| Freddy Galvis | 403 | 40 | 85.7 | 89.1 | 3.4 |
| Francisco Cervelli | 327 | 37 | 88.1 | 91.4 | 3.3 |
| Yadier Molina | 391 | 40 | 86.5 | 89.8 | 3.3 |
| Anthony Rizzo | 434 | 36 | 89.1 | 92.2 | 3.1 |
| Brandon Phillips | 460 | 36 | 86.5 | 89.5 | 3.0 |
Exit Velo = Velocity off the bat, in MPH
Because Altuve has a long history of lesser power, the projections have him falling behind the league-average power that he showed last year. But, given what we know about exit velocities and launch angles generally — and Altuve’s exit velocities and launch angles specifically — it’s probably more reasonable to expect something that starts with last year’s power as a baseline. And if you do that, you’ll find that it’s more likely that Altuve hits 20 home runs this year than 16.
And if Altuve does that, he’ll likely become the sixth person since 2000 — joining Hanley Ramirez, Mike Trout, Eric Byrnes, and Carlos Beltran — to record 20 homers and 40 stolen bases in the same season. And if he does all of that, Altuve will become only the second player (besides Jimmy Rollins, who managed it in 2007) since 1980 to record a 20/40 season at a listed height of 5-foot-7 or less.
He’d also zoom to the top of another leaderboard, hitting the eighth-most home runs for a hitter 5-foot-8 or shorter, behind Rollins (four times), Ray Durham, Dustin Pedroia, and Marcus Giles.
Yeah, you can call him a power hitter.
| Name | Height | Season | PA | HR | SB | ISO | BABIP | wRC+ | WAR |
| Jimmy Rollins | 67 | 2007 | 778 | 30 | 41 | 0.235 | 0.300 | 119 | 6.5 |
| Ray Durham | 68 | 2006 | 555 | 26 | 7 | 0.245 | 0.291 | 126 | 3.6 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 67 | 2006 | 758 | 25 | 36 | 0.200 | 0.281 | 103 | 4.3 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 67 | 2012 | 699 | 23 | 30 | 0.177 | 0.262 | 101 | 4.7 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 67 | 2009 | 725 | 21 | 31 | 0.173 | 0.251 | 85 | 2.6 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 68 | 2011 | 731 | 21 | 26 | 0.167 | 0.325 | 133 | 7.8 |
| Marcus Giles | 68 | 2003 | 635 | 21 | 14 | 0.211 | 0.337 | 139 | 6.7 |
| Ray Durham | 68 | 2001 | 691 | 20 | 23 | 0.200 | 0.294 | 108 | 3.9 |
| Ray Durham | 68 | 1998 | 723 | 19 | 36 | 0.170 | 0.315 | 115 | 3.2 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 67 | 2014 | 609 | 17 | 28 | 0.151 | 0.269 | 102 | 3.8 |
| Dustin Pedroia | 68 | 2008 | 726 | 17 | 20 | 0.167 | 0.331 | 127 | 6.3 |
| Ray Durham | 68 | 2004 | 542 | 17 | 10 | 0.202 | 0.291 | 120 | 3.1 |
| Ray Durham | 68 | 2000 | 709 | 17 | 25 | 0.169 | 0.310 | 105 | 2.7 |
| Jimmy Rollins | 67 | 2011 | 631 | 16 | 30 | 0.131 | 0.275 | 103 | 3.6 |
| Jose Altuve | 66 | 2015 | 689 | 15 | 38 | 0.146 | 0.329 | 120 | 4.3 |
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
What about just guys 5-6 and under?
You can see from the last leaderboard he’s Number One.
Oh. No kidding, 66 inches = 5 feet 6 inches.
Maybe I should reconsider my plans to become a stats analyst.
I know there’s next-to-zero chance he hits 30 home runs- but get this:
Every year from 1987-2012, except strike-shortened 1994 and 2010, at least one player has gone 30/30. By my count (looking at MLB.com) it has happened 49 times in that time frame. No one has done it since 2012- and only a few (Trout, Gomez, Goldschmidt) have even come close.
Realistically, is Jose freaking Altuve the most likely player to go 30/30 this year? Sterling Marte? Could Mike Trout suddenly start caring about stolen bases again and do it?
Hack Wilson hit 56 homers in 1930.
*since 1980
Yeah, but, that was 1930 inches. Inflation and whatnot…
If anything, that makes it less impressive because average height has increased.
Great read! I have him pegged in the 20-25 range. People forget he’s 25 and still developing.
Also: he has hit two opposite field homers in a row, and those were the second and third oppo shots of his career. (1st was this one: http://m.mlb.com/video/v20883125/houmil-altuve-smacks-a-solo-shot-to-rightcenter/?c_id=mlb)
Every year his leg kick gets a little bit higher and allows him to drive the ball further. Hope this doesn’t come across as spam because it is very related and I wrote this just two days ago, but my in depth analysis of Altuve’s developing opposite field power stroke: https://glovepop.wordpress.com/2016/04/19/jose-altuve-goes-oppo/
Great read! Glad to see there is good reason to use last year’s career best as a baseline. I’ve posted elsewhere that I think an additional reason to expect Jose Altuve to increase his HR total and SLG is that he has really been trying to improve his patience at the plate and his has shown. You’d obviously expect that to improve his OBP and the things that come with that, but I think especially in his case it might mean fewer double play balls and swinging at pitches he is more likely to drive. Like waitzsauce says, I think it is easy to forget how young he is and that development/improvement is extremely possible.
If Rollins had a 20/40 in 2007, wouldn’t that make Altuve the sixth since 2000, since Rollins is not one of the other four listed?
why.. yes.
What I’ve been impressed with is that all of these HR have come vs RHP. Altuve has traditionally SLG about 100 pts higher vs LHP. So, its encouraging to see these gains coming vs RHP.
Interesting article. Would it be possible to add the ideal angle (10-30 degrees) percentage into the batted ball profile at the players page? How can I get access to that?
It’s on baseballsavant.mlb.com
Also not that his outside the zone swing rate is better too. Seems like he is more patient forcing pitchers more to throw some pitches over the heart of the plate.
Jose Altuve Fun Fact:
Over the last 365 days, Jose Altuve has hit more homers than Eric Hosmer. In fewer games.
I’m not sure how much that fact means, since I don’t really think of Hosmer as a big power hitter and I don’t think of Altuve as a no power guy either.
From the linked post on how quickly exit velocity stabilizes.
“I think it’s worth adding in a caveat about these sorts of analyses that people don’t often heed. The idea that a number has become “reliable” is not the same thing as saying that the player is now that number and that going forward this is what we should expect out of him. Reliability in this sense is a retrospective number. I can look back on the first few weeks of the season, look at the StatCast leaderboard and feel pretty good that those 40 balls in play represent a good estimate of what a player’s actual “talent” for exit velocity was during that time which is now past. It’s not a bad assumption that he might continue at that talent level during the next 40 balls in play or the next 100 or the next 200, but it is an assumption.”
Good thing it was only part of a larger analysis then!
Just a side note about Altuve’s height. I’ve spoken with someone who met Altuve in person on the field. Altuve stood next to this guy’s 5’3″ wife and Altuve was barely taller than her according to him. He estimated Altuve is at most 5’4″. Atluve is either the shortest or second shortest batting champion in major league history. Wee Willie Keeler (1897-1898 NL batting champion)is listed at 5’4″ on BBRef.
I stood close enough to Altuve to touch him at the 2014 All Star Game red carpet entrance, and we were standing on the same level so I can attest to your info being accurate. I’m (almost) 6’1″ and Altuve made me feel like a giant. In fact, at first there was someone standing between us and I had to ask what player that is because I couldn’t see him. There’s absolutely no way he’s 5’6″.