Jose Altuve: Power Hitter

He’s listed at a generous 5-foot-6, and he’s never hit more than 15 homers, so when you look up and see that Jose Altuve has hit five home runs already this year, you really just want to shrug and sing a song of sample size. But if you’ve been watching for longer, you’ll have noticed that this has been a long time coming, and that under the hood we find reasons to believe that this young man is just growing into his power stroke.

Last year, Altuve added a leg kick that improved his ability to leverage his frame into more power. “I’m hitting the ball harder, not as many singles, more power,” he told me last year when we talked about the change. Starting the process earlier with a leg kick also helped him recognize pitches earlier, which helped keep his strikeout rate down even as he hit for more power.

A quick look at what the change has looked like for Altuve. First, his swing in 2012:

And then again in 2015:

Another part of hitting for power is lifting the ball. Altuve has quietly increased his fly-ball percentage every year he’s been in the big leagues. Watch his ground-ball rate (in green) take that dive:

In more new-fangled language, he’s upped his launch angle over time, and he’s continued that process this year. He’s already moved his launch angle from 9.2 degrees on average last year to 10.8 so far this year. And the percentage of his balls in play in the ideal home-run range (25-30 degrees) plus ideal line-drive range (10-25 degrees) has increased from 28% last year to 40% this year.

And the rest of the picture is how hard he’s hitting the ball. Not only is Altuve ninth in baseball in exit velocity, he’s improved more than anyone. Here are the players who’ve recorded at least 30 balls in play this year — significant because exit velocity stabilizes around 40-50 balls in play — and improved their exit velocity the most over last year.

This Year’s Biggest Exit Velocity Improvers

Player	2015 BIP	2016 BIP	2015 Exit Velo	2016 Exit Velo	Difference
Jose Altuve	530	44	86.2	94.5	8.3
J.J. Hardy	278	33	87.9	94.2	6.3
Scooter Gennett	255	33	85.1	90.8	5.7
Derek Norris	335	31	87.5	93.0	5.5
David Freese	298	39	89.4	94.8	5.4
Kole Calhoun	424	35	86.4	91.6	5.2
Ryan Howard	310	33	91.7	96.8	5.1
Nick Markakis	452	42	89.1	94.1	5.0
Mike Moustakas	406	41	90.0	94.2	4.2
Yasmany Tomas	252	34	90.2	94.4	4.2
B.J. Upton	123	33	88.2	92.3	4.1
Carlos Gonzalez	371	46	90.9	95.0	4.1
Starlin Castro	408	39	86.6	90.4	3.8
Adonis Garcia	148	32	89.5	93.0	3.5
Jean Segura	389	42	87.2	90.7	3.5
Freddy Galvis	403	40	85.7	89.1	3.4
Francisco Cervelli	327	37	88.1	91.4	3.3
Yadier Molina	391	40	86.5	89.8	3.3
Anthony Rizzo	434	36	89.1	92.2	3.1
Brandon Phillips	460	36	86.5	89.5	3.0

SOURCE: Statcast

BIP = Balls in Play
Exit Velo = Velocity off the bat, in MPH

Because Altuve has a long history of lesser power, the projections have him falling behind the league-average power that he showed last year. But, given what we know about exit velocities and launch angles generally — and Altuve’s exit velocities and launch angles specifically — it’s probably more reasonable to expect something that starts with last year’s power as a baseline. And if you do that, you’ll find that it’s more likely that Altuve hits 20 home runs this year than 16.

And if Altuve does that, he’ll likely become the sixth person since 2000 — joining Hanley Ramirez, Mike Trout, Eric Byrnes, and Carlos Beltran — to record 20 homers and 40 stolen bases in the same season. And if he does all of that, Altuve will become only the second player (besides Jimmy Rollins, who managed it in 2007) since 1980 to record a 20/40 season at a listed height of 5-foot-7 or less.

He’d also zoom to the top of another leaderboard, hitting the eighth-most home runs for a hitter 5-foot-8 or shorter, behind Rollins (four times), Ray Durham, Dustin Pedroia, and Marcus Giles.

Yeah, you can call him a power hitter.

Best Power Seasons By a Player 5-foot-8 or Shorter

Name	Height	Season	PA	HR	SB	ISO	BABIP	wRC+	WAR
Jimmy Rollins	67	2007	778	30	41	0.235	0.300	119	6.5
Ray Durham	68	2006	555	26	7	0.245	0.291	126	3.6
Jimmy Rollins	67	2006	758	25	36	0.200	0.281	103	4.3
Jimmy Rollins	67	2012	699	23	30	0.177	0.262	101	4.7
Jimmy Rollins	67	2009	725	21	31	0.173	0.251	85	2.6
Dustin Pedroia	68	2011	731	21	26	0.167	0.325	133	7.8
Marcus Giles	68	2003	635	21	14	0.211	0.337	139	6.7
Ray Durham	68	2001	691	20	23	0.200	0.294	108	3.9
Ray Durham	68	1998	723	19	36	0.170	0.315	115	3.2
Jimmy Rollins	67	2014	609	17	28	0.151	0.269	102	3.8
Dustin Pedroia	68	2008	726	17	20	0.167	0.331	127	6.3
Ray Durham	68	2004	542	17	10	0.202	0.291	120	3.1
Ray Durham	68	2000	709	17	25	0.169	0.310	105	2.7
Jimmy Rollins	67	2011	631	16	30	0.131	0.275	103	3.6
Jose Altuve	66	2015	689	15	38	0.146	0.329	120	4.3

Since 1980 — data fully complete since 1999.