KATOH on the Cape: Projecting Cape Cod League Pitchers

Last Tuesday, I published a post examining the hitters in this year’s Cape Cod summer league through the lens of my KATOH projection system. Today, I’m back to look at the pitchers. As I did with minor-league players and college players, I deployed a series of probit regressions to see what stuck when it came to forecasting major-league performance for Cape League players. I used those results to generate an expected WAR total — in this case, through age 28. These projections are far from gospel: scouting the stat line is always dangerous, and it’s even more dangerous than usual at the college level, where the samples are small, the players are raw, and the quality of opposing pitching runs the gamut. Nonetheless, statistical performance is an often overlooked component of prospect evaluation, and the performers often go on to exceed expectations.

A couple of caveats. Due to the poor quality of publicly available historical summer-league data, these projections do not directly account for pitchers’ home-run rates, which is obviously less than ideal. Secondly, these projections take into account only what these players have done this summer. Ideally, they’d account for college stats and summer-league stats. I do plan to link these two data sets at some point, but, unfortunately, it’s easier said than done.

Below, you’ll find a few notes on performances whom I deemed noteworthy. Below that, you’ll find a giant table for all hitters who recorded at least 75 batters faced (BFs) in the Cape Cod League this year. The two rightmost columns refers to each prospect’s ranking on Baseball America’s Cape Cod top-30 list and Frankie Piliere’s top-150 list from D1 Baseball.

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• Xavier lefty Zac Lowther absolutely beasted as a swingman on the Cape this year. In 35.2 innings, he struck out an astounding 54 batters while only walking four. Lowther was largely mediocre in the Big East the past two seasons, but his performance this summer suggests he may have turned a corner.

• KATOH penalizes Garrett Cave for pitching exclusively in relief this summer, but his excellent strikeout numbers still result in a strong projection. In just 19.1 innings, Cave struck out 34. Though he walked 13 batters, Cave’s strikeout abilities suggest he’s destined for the big leagues. Cave walked nearly a batter per inning at Florida International, so hopefully he’ll do a better job of keeping the walks under control next year as junior.

• Zach Schellenger didn’t crack Baseball America’s top-30 list, but KATOH sees a lot of potential in him. In 20.1 relief innings on the Cape this year, the 6-foot-5 righty fanned 32 while only walking seven. Schellenger posted similarly impressive strikeout numbers last year as a sophomore at Seton Hall.

• In addition to having an double-plus name, Gunner Leger was one of the most dominant pitchers on the Cape this year, albeit in a small sample. In seven games — including three starts — he struck out 29 batters, while only walking one. Leger pitched well at Louisiana-Lafayette last year, as well, though he did so in a non-elite conference, and didn’t miss nearly as many bats as he did on the Cape.

• Neither Basbeall America nor D1 Baseball thinks much of William and Mary righty Nick Brown, but in 21 relief innings on the Cape this year, he struck out 30 while only walking six. He hasn’t pitched particularly well in college, but perhaps that will change in his upcoming senior season.

• Brady Singer was the top-rated pitcher on both Baseball America’s and D1 Baseball’s respective lists. KATOH likes him, too, but has tempered expectations for the 6-foot-5 righty. Though he pitched to a sub-1.00 ERA, he did so without the benefit of an elite strikeout rate. My college model was also lukewarm on Singer following a mediocre performance as a freshman reliever at Florida.

• Colton Hock ranked highly on the scouting-based lists, but KATOH isn’t impressed. The 6-foot-5 righty was well short of dominant on the Cape this summer, posting a 3.44 ERA with 32 strikeouts over 36.2 innings as a swingman. My college model was also down on Hock. Though he pitched well at Stanford last year, he did so as a reliever with underwhelming peripheral stats.

• Mike Baumann ranks 23rd on both lists, but his performance left KATOH underwhelmed. He struck out 27 and walked 23 across 29.2 innitongs. Pitchers who struggle that badly on the Cape rarely go on to pitch in the big leagues.

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