KATOH Projects: Washington Nationals Prospects

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Yesterday, lead prospect analyst Dan Farnsworth published his excellently in-depth prospect list for the Washington Nationals. In this companion piece, I look at that same DC farm system through the lens of my recently refined KATOH projection system. The Nationals have the 16th-best farm system in baseball according to KATOH.

There’s way more to prospect evaluation than just the stats, so if you haven’t already, I highly recommend you read Dan’s piece in addition to this one. KATOH has no idea how hard a pitcher throws, how good a hitter’s bat speed is, or what a player’s makeup is like. So it’s liable to miss big on players whose tools don’t line up with their performances. However, when paired with more scouting-based analyses, KATOH’s objectivity can be useful in identifying talented players who might be overlooked by the industry consensus or highly-touted prospects who might be over-hyped.

Below, I’ve grouped prospects into three groups: those who are forecast for two or more wins through their first six major-league seasons, those who receive a projection between 1.0 and 2.0 WAR though their first six seasons, and then any residual players who received Future Value (FV) grades of 45 or higher from Dan. Note that I generated forecasts only for players who accrued at least 200 plate appearances or batters faced last season. Also note that the projections for players over a relatively small sample are less reliable, especially when those samples came in the low minors.

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1. Trea Turner, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 8.8 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 60 FV

Turner scuffled in his first taste of big-league action last year, but previously did a bang-up job in the minors. Speed is Turner’s calling card, but he also showed a decent amount of power when he popped eight homers in the minors. Turner’s high-ish strikeout rates are a bit concerning, but his overall offensive package is extremely promising for a shortstop.

2. Lucas Giolito, RHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 8.4 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 60+ FV

Giolito has been a strikeout machine in the minors. In 2014, he whiffed 29% of batters faced in Low-A, and whiffed 27% between High-A and Double-A last year. A strikeout rate like that coupled with a better-than-average walk rate makes for a very good pitching prospect. The added fact that he’s only 21 makes him an unquestionably great pitching prospect.

3. Victor Robles, OF (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 7.9 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 60+ FV

Robles killed it in short-season ball last year. He slashed a ridiculous .352/.445/.507 in 261 plate appearances, and also swiped 24 bags. Robles makes loads of contact, hits for a decent amount of power and runs wild on the bases. His inflated .394 BABIP is bound to come down as he advances to full-season ball, but given the absurdity of his 2015 numbers, he has plenty of room to regress while still remaining good.

4. Anderson Franco, 3B (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 7.9 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 40 FV

Franco spent most of last season in Rookie ball where he hit .281/.347/.412 as a 17-year-old. Franco’s encouraging combination of contact, power and age makes him an extremely promising prospect. Though, considering he’s barely played above Rookie ball, he still has a long ways to go.

5. Wilmer Difo, SS (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.3 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 50+ FV

Save for a couple of cameos in the big leagues, Difo split last season between High-A and Double-A, where he slashed .286/.325/.412. Difo pairs 70-grade speed with a touch of power, which makes him an intriguing middle-infield prospect. On the down side, his strikeout rate jumped from 11% in 2014 to 21% in Double-A last year. He’ll likely need to re-discover his contact stroke to have much success against big-league pitching.

6. Austin Voth, RHP (Profile)

KATOH Projection: 2.3 WAR
Dan’s Grade: 45 FV

Voth pitched to a strong 2.92 ERA and 3.07 FIP at Double-A last year. Voth has coasted through the minors so far, but has done so with merely good strikeout rates. KATOH agrees with the scouts that he’s unlikely to carry his dominance over to the highest level. Even so, he’s very likely to provide some big-league contribution in the future, which can’t be said of most minor leaguers.

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Reynaldo Lopez is the guy to watch from this group due to his blazing fastball. Thus far, however, his spotty command has lead to merely good results in the low minors. His 2.95 FIP and 23% strikeout rate from last year were solid, but most solid A-ball pitchers don’t blossom into stars. In generating Lopez’s comps, I only considered pitchers who cracked Baseball America’s top-100 list after the season in question. This is intended to act as a proxy for “good stuff,” which Lopez certainly has.

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Former first-rounder Erick Fedde was just alright in the lower rungs of A-Ball last year despite playing the season as a 22-year-old. Since he was recovering from Tommy John surgery, however, it’s likely that last year’s stats do not do him justice. Taylor Hearn was more good than great in short-season A last year, particularly in the strikeouts department. Kelvin Gutierrez slashed .305/.358/.414 in short-season A, but his 20% strikeout rate is a red flag. He’s also shown approximately zero power or speed in the minors.