KATOH Trade-Deadline Roundup: Prospects and Teams

August 3, 2016

In the table below, you’ll find a treasure trove of information pertaining to the prospect-y players who changed hands this trade deadline. There were 47 of them in all. The “KATOH” and “KATOH+” columns refer to each player’s projected WAR forecast for the first six years of his major-league career, as evaluated by my newly updated KATOH system. KATOH denotes WAR forecast for first six years of player’s major-league career. KATOH+ uses similar methodology with consideration also for Baseball America’s rankings. The right-most column refers to lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen’s scouting grades, which should serve as something of a sanity check for my admittedly flawed projections.

Below the upcoming massive table, one can find a KATOH-generated, team-level analysis of the prospect value that changed hands at the trade deadline, followed by a chart comparing my KATOH numbers with Longenhagen’s scouting grades.

KATOH Projections for the Prospects Traded at the Deadline

Player	POS	New Team	Old Team	Trade Headliner	KATOH	KATOH+	Eric’s FV
Lewis Brinson	CF	MIL	TEX	Jonathan Lucroy	7.7	9.9	60
Gleyber Torres	SS	NYY	CHC	Aroldis Chapman	5.6	7.1	55
Phil Bickford	RHP	MIL	SFG	Will Smith	3.8	5.1	45
Reese Mcguire	C	TOR	PIT	Francisco Liriano	5.5	5.1	40
Anderson Espinoza	RHP	SDP	BOS	Drew Pomeranz	2.8	4.9	60
Dan Vogelbach	DH	SEA	CHC	Mike Montgomery	5.0	4.9	45
Clint Frazier	OF	NYY	CLE	Andrew Miller	4.7	4.7	55
Josh Naylor	1B	SDP	MIA	Andrew Cashner	4.4	4.6	45
Charlie Tilson	OF	CHW	STL	Zach Duke	4.3	4.4	40
Adalberto Mejia	LHP	MIN	SFG	Eduardo Nunez	3.4	3.9	50
Dilson Herrera	2B	CIN	NYM	Jay Bruce	4.1	3.4	50
Grant Holmes	RHP	OAK	LAD	Rich Hill/Josh Reddick	2.0	2.9	50
Jonah Heim	C	TBR	BAL	Steve Pearce	2.9	2.7	35
Brett Eibner	OF	OAK	KCR	Billy Burns	2.4	2.6	NA
Andrew Susac	C	MIL	SFG	Will Smith	2.4	2.5	NA
Drew Hutchison	RHP	PIT	TOR	Francisco Liriano	2.4	2.4	NA
Justus Sheffield	LHP	NYY	CLE	Andrew Miller	1.6	2.4	50
Frankie Montas*	RHP	OAK	LAD	Rich Hill/Josh Reddick	3.1	2.3	50
Jharel Cotton	RHP	OAK	LAD	Rich Hill/Josh Reddick	2.3	2.2	50
Luis Ortiz	RHP	MIL	TEX	Jonathan Lucroy	1.5	2.1	55
Harold Ramirez	LF	TOR	PIT	Francisco Liriano	2.2	2.0	40
Alex Meyer*	RHP	LAA	MIN	Ricky Nolasco/Hector Santiago	1.9	1.9	35
Nathan Lukes	OF	TBR	CLE	Brandon Guyer	2.0	1.9	35
Michael Santos	RHP	TBR	SFG	Matt Moore	1.6	1.5	45
Paul Blackburn	RHP	SEA	CHC	Mike Montgomery	1.5	1.4	35
Vicente Campos	RHP	ARI	NYY	Tyler Clippard	1.6	1.4	35
Lucius Fox	SS	TBR	SFG	Matt Moore	1.5	1.3	50
Billy Mckinney	OF	NYY	CHC	Aroldis Chapman	1.7	1.3	40
Travis Demeritte	2B	ATL	TEX	Dario Alvarez/Lucas Harrell	1.4	1.2	45
Nick Green	RHP	NYY	TEX	Carlos Beltran	1.1	1.1	35
Lupe Chavez	RHP	HOU	TOR	Scott Feldman	1.0	1.0	NA
Pat Light	RHP	MIN	BOS	Fernando Abad	1.0	1.0	40
Ben Heller	RHP	NYY	CLE	Andrew Miller	1.1	1.0	35
J.P. Feyereisen	RHP	NYY	CLE	Andrew Miller	1.2	1.0	35
Hansel Rodriguez	RHP	SDP	TOR	Melvin Upton	0.9	0.9	40
Max Wotell	LHP	CIN	NYM	Jay Bruce	0.9	0.9	35
Tayron Guerrero	RHP	MIA	SDP	Andrew Cashner	1.2	0.8	35
Taylor Hearn	LHP	PIT	WAS	Mark Melancon	0.7	0.7	40
Jordan Pries	RHP	CHC	SEA	Mike Montgomery	0.6	0.7	35
Jesus Castillo	RHP	LAA	CHC	Joe Smith	0.7	0.7	35
Ariel Miranda	LHP	SEA	BAL	Wade Miley	0.6	0.6	40
Jhonleider Salinas	RHP	TBR	CLE	Brandon Guyer	0.4	0.4	35
Erik Swanson	RHP	NYY	TEX	Carlos Beltran	0.4	0.4	35
Alan Busenitz	RHP	MIN	LAA	Ricky Nolasco/Hector Santiago	0.5	0.4	35
Dillon Tate	RHP	NYY	TEX	Carlos Beltran	0.2	0.2	55
Rashad Crawford	OF	NYY	CHC	Aroldis Chapman	0.3	0.2	35
Yordan Alvarez	1B	HOU	LAD	Josh Fields	NA	NA	35

*Projections use 2015 stats

Using cutting-edge technology know as “pivot tables,” I aggregated these KATOH+ projections both by acquiring team and trading team. Then I took the difference to make the following chart.

Net

Here’s the data behind it.

Net Prospect Value Added at the Trade Deadline

Team	KATOH+ Proj. WAR
MIL	19.6
NYY	18.0
OAK	10.0
SDP	9.6
TBR	7.8
SEA	6.2
CHW	4.4
CIN	4.3
MIN	3.4
TOR	2.8
LAA	2.2
ARI	1.4
ATL	1.2
HOU	1.0
COL	0.0
DET	0.0
PHI	0.0
WAS	-0.7
KCR	-2.6
BAL	-3.3
MIA	-3.8
PIT	-4.0
NYM	-4.3
STL	-4.4
BOS	-5.9
LAD	-7.4
CLE	-11.4
SFG	-14.3
CHC	-14.9
TEX	-14.9

By my math, the team whose farm system benefited most from this year’s deadline isn’t the New York Yankees, but the Milwaukee Brewers. With a KATOH+ forecast of 9.9 WAR, stud center fielder Lewis Brinson accounts for most of the team’s acquired value, but Phil Bickford (5.1 WAR), Andrew Susac (2.5 WAR) and Luis Ortiz (2.1 WAR) also help out their cause. The Brewers have a history of trading for KATOH darlings, and this year’s trade deadline is no different.

The Yankees also rank highly, as they turned Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Carlos Beltran into several prospects. Gleyber Torres (7.1 WAR), Clint Frazier (4.7 WAR) and Justus Sheffield (2.4 WAR) are the headliners, while seven other minor leaguers combine for 5.1 WAR. Among those seven is Dillon Tate, whose tools suggest he’s much better than his 0.2 WAR KATOH forecast. The value they added is slightly offset by the departure of Vincente Campos (1.4 WAR) in exchange for Tyler Clippard.

Unsurprisingly, the biggest losers in terms of prospect value include the Cubs, Rangers, Giants and Indians. The Rangers top the list, mostly because they paid a pretty penny — Brinson and Ortiz — for Jonathan Lucroy. The Cubs are a close second, as they gave up a lot of potential future value to add Aroldis Chapman, Mike Montgomery and Joe Smith to their bullpen. Somewhat surprisingly, KATOH isn’t particularly fond of the three pitching prospects the Dodgers coughed up for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick. Although they each received a 50 FV from Longenhagen, KATOH projects each of Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton and Frankie Montas for 2-3 WAR. Going by the numbers, they’re only mildly interesting prospects.

Just for kicks, I also plotted Eric Longenhagen’s FV rankings versus my KATOH forecasts for each player traded. Eric’s rankings and my projections are generally in agreement, but there are a few instances where the projections and the scouting don’t quite line up.