KATOH Trade-Deadline Roundup: Prospects and Teams

In the table below, you’ll find a treasure trove of information pertaining to the prospect-y players who changed hands this trade deadline. There were 47 of them in all. The “KATOH” and “KATOH+” columns refer to each player’s projected WAR forecast for the first six years of his major-league career, as evaluated by my newly updated KATOH systemKATOH denotes WAR forecast for first six years of player’s major-league career. KATOH+ uses similar methodology with consideration also for Baseball America’s rankings. The right-most column refers to lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen’s scouting grades, which should serve as something of a sanity check for my admittedly flawed projections.

Below the upcoming massive table, one can find a KATOH-generated, team-level analysis of the prospect value that changed hands at the trade deadline, followed by a chart comparing my KATOH numbers with Longenhagen’s scouting grades.

KATOH Projections for the Prospects Traded at the Deadline
Player POS New Team Old Team Trade Headliner KATOH KATOH+ Eric’s FV
Lewis Brinson CF MIL TEX Jonathan Lucroy 7.7 9.9 60
Gleyber Torres SS NYY CHC Aroldis Chapman 5.6 7.1 55
Phil Bickford RHP MIL SFG Will Smith 3.8 5.1 45
Reese Mcguire C TOR PIT Francisco Liriano 5.5 5.1 40
Anderson Espinoza RHP SDP BOS Drew Pomeranz 2.8 4.9 60
Dan Vogelbach DH SEA CHC Mike Montgomery 5.0 4.9 45
Clint Frazier OF NYY CLE Andrew Miller 4.7 4.7 55
Josh Naylor 1B SDP MIA Andrew Cashner 4.4 4.6 45
Charlie Tilson OF CHW STL Zach Duke 4.3 4.4 40
Adalberto Mejia LHP MIN SFG Eduardo Nunez 3.4 3.9 50
Dilson Herrera 2B CIN NYM Jay Bruce 4.1 3.4 50
Grant Holmes RHP OAK LAD Rich Hill/Josh Reddick 2.0 2.9 50
Jonah Heim C TBR BAL Steve Pearce 2.9 2.7 35
Brett Eibner OF OAK KCR Billy Burns 2.4 2.6 NA
Andrew Susac C MIL SFG Will Smith 2.4 2.5 NA
Drew Hutchison RHP PIT TOR Francisco Liriano 2.4 2.4 NA
Justus Sheffield LHP NYY CLE Andrew Miller 1.6 2.4 50
Frankie Montas* RHP OAK LAD Rich Hill/Josh Reddick 3.1 2.3 50
Jharel Cotton RHP OAK LAD Rich Hill/Josh Reddick 2.3 2.2 50
Luis Ortiz RHP MIL TEX Jonathan Lucroy 1.5 2.1 55
Harold Ramirez LF TOR PIT Francisco Liriano 2.2 2.0 40
Alex Meyer* RHP LAA MIN Ricky Nolasco/Hector Santiago 1.9 1.9 35
Nathan Lukes OF TBR CLE Brandon Guyer 2.0 1.9 35
Michael Santos RHP TBR SFG Matt Moore 1.6 1.5 45
Paul Blackburn RHP SEA CHC Mike Montgomery 1.5 1.4 35
Vicente Campos RHP ARI NYY Tyler Clippard 1.6 1.4 35
Lucius Fox SS TBR SFG Matt Moore 1.5 1.3 50
Billy Mckinney OF NYY CHC Aroldis Chapman 1.7 1.3 40
Travis Demeritte 2B ATL TEX Dario Alvarez/Lucas Harrell 1.4 1.2 45
Nick Green RHP NYY TEX Carlos Beltran 1.1 1.1 35
Lupe Chavez RHP HOU TOR Scott Feldman 1.0 1.0 NA
Pat Light RHP MIN BOS Fernando Abad 1.0 1.0 40
Ben Heller RHP NYY CLE Andrew Miller 1.1 1.0 35
J.P. Feyereisen RHP NYY CLE Andrew Miller 1.2 1.0 35
Hansel Rodriguez RHP SDP TOR Melvin Upton 0.9 0.9 40
Max Wotell LHP CIN NYM Jay Bruce 0.9 0.9 35
Tayron Guerrero RHP MIA SDP Andrew Cashner 1.2 0.8 35
Taylor Hearn LHP PIT WAS Mark Melancon 0.7 0.7 40
Jordan Pries RHP CHC SEA Mike Montgomery 0.6 0.7 35
Jesus Castillo RHP LAA CHC Joe Smith 0.7 0.7 35
Ariel Miranda LHP SEA BAL Wade Miley 0.6 0.6 40
Jhonleider Salinas RHP TBR CLE Brandon Guyer 0.4 0.4 35
Erik Swanson RHP NYY TEX Carlos Beltran 0.4 0.4 35
Alan Busenitz RHP MIN LAA Ricky Nolasco/Hector Santiago 0.5 0.4 35
Dillon Tate RHP NYY TEX Carlos Beltran 0.2 0.2 55
Rashad Crawford OF NYY CHC Aroldis Chapman 0.3 0.2 35
Yordan Alvarez 1B HOU LAD Josh Fields NA NA 35
*Projections use 2015 stats

Using cutting-edge technology know as “pivot tables,” I aggregated these KATOH+ projections both by acquiring team and trading team. Then I took the difference to make the following chart.

Net

Here’s the data behind it.

Net Prospect Value Added at the Trade Deadline
Team KATOH+ Proj. WAR
MIL 19.6
NYY 18.0
OAK 10.0
SDP 9.6
TBR 7.8
SEA 6.2
CHW 4.4
CIN 4.3
MIN 3.4
TOR 2.8
LAA 2.2
ARI 1.4
ATL 1.2
HOU 1.0
COL 0.0
DET 0.0
PHI 0.0
WAS -0.7
KCR -2.6
BAL -3.3
MIA -3.8
PIT -4.0
NYM -4.3
STL -4.4
BOS -5.9
LAD -7.4
CLE -11.4
SFG -14.3
CHC -14.9
TEX -14.9

By my math, the team whose farm system benefited most from this year’s deadline isn’t the New York Yankees, but the Milwaukee Brewers. With a KATOH+ forecast of 9.9 WAR, stud center fielder Lewis Brinson accounts for most of the team’s acquired value, but Phil Bickford (5.1 WAR), Andrew Susac (2.5 WAR) and Luis Ortiz (2.1 WAR) also help out their cause. The Brewers have a history of trading for KATOH darlings, and this year’s trade deadline is no different.

The Yankees also rank highly, as they turned Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller and Carlos Beltran into several prospects. Gleyber Torres (7.1 WAR), Clint Frazier (4.7 WAR) and Justus Sheffield (2.4 WAR) are the headliners, while seven other minor leaguers combine for 5.1 WAR. Among those seven is Dillon Tate, whose tools suggest he’s much better than his 0.2 WAR KATOH forecast. The value they added is slightly offset by the departure of Vincente Campos (1.4 WAR) in exchange for Tyler Clippard.

Unsurprisingly, the biggest losers in terms of prospect value include the Cubs, Rangers, Giants and Indians. The Rangers top the list, mostly because they paid a pretty penny — Brinson and Ortiz — for Jonathan Lucroy. The Cubs are a close second, as they gave up a lot of potential future value to add Aroldis Chapman, Mike Montgomery and Joe Smith to their bullpen. Somewhat surprisingly, KATOH isn’t particularly fond of the three pitching prospects the Dodgers coughed up for Rich Hill and Josh Reddick. Although they each received a 50 FV from Longenhagen, KATOH projects each of Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton and Frankie Montas for 2-3 WAR. Going by the numbers, they’re only mildly interesting prospects.

Just for kicks, I also plotted Eric Longenhagen’s FV rankings versus my KATOH forecasts for each player traded. Eric’s rankings and my projections are generally in agreement, but there are a few instances where the projections and the scouting don’t quite line up.

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Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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backward galaxy
6 years ago

I look forward to the Brewers being a good team again, though I do wonder if Ryan Braun is still good by the time they get there.