KATOH’s In-Season Prospect Update

Kiley McDaniel put out his 2015 In-Season Prospect Update on Wednesday, which got everyone up to speed on the game’s most noteworthy prospects. Among other things, Kiley included an ordered list of the top-26 prospects in baseball. To follow suit, I put together an updated top-100 list, according to my KATOH system. Additionally, I produced KATOH forecasts for Kiley’s top 26, the 18 players on his “Minor-League Pop-Up Guys List.”

I know you probably know this, but I’d like to reiterate that you shouldn’t think of this as “Chris Mitchell’s Top 100 List,” and certainly not “FanGraphs’ Top 100 List.” This is simply the output from a flawed statistical model that fails to take into account many of the factors that go into evaluating a prospect. In particular, it ignores a player’s physical tools. As always, you should never choose between beer and tacos if you don’t have to.

This also feels like a good time to run through a couple of programming notes regarding the state of KATOH. I am currently working on an improved KATOH model. Among some other tweaks, it will address two notable flaws:

• Currently, KATOH does not directly take into account for a player’s defensive position. A hitter’s stolen base numbers can act as a decent proxy for his defensive value, but that proxy is far from perfect. Most notably, this conspires to underrate catchers.
• Currently, KATOH uses raw (but league-adjusted) statistics that haven’t been properly regressed to account for sample size. Among other things, this often causes KATOH to misjudge players who have exceptionally high or low BABIPs.

I expect to roll out this update in November, but don’t hold me to that timetable. In the meantime, all of my posts — including this one — will continue to use the models I built last winter. Just keep this in mind, and I’ll be sure to point out any instances where KATOH might be misjudging a player due to these flaws.

Enough talk. Here’s KATOH’s top-100 list considering stats through August 18th. Only players with at least 200 plate appearances and/or batters faced this year were considered for this list. Before I jump into the list, I feel I should mention Carlos Correa here. Although he’s no longer a prospect, his forecast of 19 WAR through age-28 was easily the highest among players with a meaningful sample of games.

KATOH’s Top 100 Prospect List

Rank	Name	Organization	KATOH WAR thru 28	2014 KATOH WAR thru 28
1	Julio Urias	Dodgers	16.6	12.2
2	Max Kepler	Twins	14.5	1.1
3	Byron Buxton	Twins	14.1	2.3
4	Dilson Herrera	Mets	13.5	9.7
5	Domingo Santana	Brewers	12.7	8.2
6	Luis Severino	Yankees	12.5	7.2
7	Kyle Schwarber	Cubs	12.1	6.1
8	Tyler Glasnow	Pirates	11.8	6.9
9	Orlando Arcia	Brewers	11.5	3.1
10	Ketel Marte	Mariners	11.2	8.6
11	J.P. Crawford	Phillies	10.8	4.4
12	Cody Bellinger	Dodgers	10.2	2.6
13	Ozhaino Albies	Braves	10.1	10.6
14	Jose Peraza	Dodgers	10.1	8.5
15	Ruddy Giron	Padres	9.8	6.1
16	Jake Bauers	Rays	9.7	7.2
17	Raul Mondesi	Royals	9.5	6.8
18	Corey Seager	Dodgers	9.1	7.9
19	Victor Robles	Nationals	8.3	NA
20	Dalton Pompey	Blue Jays	8.1	7.1
21	Ramon Flores	Mariners	7.8	7.9
22	Joey Gallo	Rangers	7.6	11.0
23	Mallex Smith	Braves	7.5	1.7
24	Alen Hanson	Pirates	7.5	7.0
25	Nick Williams	Phillies	7.3	4.6
26	Jesse Winker	Reds	7.2	6.5
27	Jose Berrios	Twins	7.2	7.0
28	Manuel Margot	Red Sox	7.0	7.7
29	Gavin Cecchini	Mets	6.9	1.8
30	Billy Mckinney	Cubs	6.9	4.7
31	Nomar Mazara	Rangers	6.9	5.7
32	Jose De Leon	Dodgers	6.9	3.9
33	Ryan Mcmahon	Rockies	6.7	4.6
34	Rafael Devers	Red Sox	6.7	8.7
35	Lewis Brinson	Rangers	6.7	4.0
36	Cole Tucker	Pirates	6.6	6.6
37	Roman Quinn	Phillies	6.6	1.1
38	Franklin Barreto	Athletics	6.5	6.6
39	Albert Almora	Cubs	6.3	1.8
40	Trevor Story	Rockies	6.2	3.5
41	Lucas Giolito	Nationals	6.2	5.0
42	Micah Johnson	White Sox	6.2	3.4
43	Gleyber Torres	Cubs	6.1	10.6
44	Juremi Profar	Rangers	6.1	2.6
45	Tyler O’Neill	Mariners	6.0	1.7
46	Benjamin Gamel	Yankees	5.9	1.5
47	Gregory Bird	Yankees	5.9	5.2
48	Jorge Polanco	Twins	5.8	2.7
49	Willy Adames	Rays	5.8	5.6
50	Trea Turner	Nationals	5.6	2.2
51	Jomar Reyes	Orioles	5.5	7.4
52	Johan Mieses	Dodgers	5.5	NA
53	Zach Davies	Orioles	5.5	4.4
54	Cheslor Cuthbert	Royals	5.2	5.7
55	A.J. Reed	Astros	5.2	1.9
56	Michael Reed	Brewers	5.2	1.6
57	Renato Nunez	Athletics	5.2	3.9
58	Matt Olson	Athletics	5.1	7.2
59	Edwin Diaz	Mariners	5.1	3.3
60	Josh Bell	Pirates	5.1	1.9
61	Tyler White	Astros	5.0	0.7
62	Brett Phillips	Brewers	4.9	5.2
63	Clint Frazier	Indians	4.9	1.5
64	Hanser Alberto	Rangers	4.9	2.3
65	Henry Owens	Red Sox	4.9	6.2
66	Gary Sanchez	Yankees	4.9	3.1
67	Matthew Wisler	Braves	4.8	5.2
68	Bryan Mejia	Nationals	4.8	1.1
69	Daniel Norris	Tigers	4.8	5.0
70	K.J. Woods	Marlins	4.8	0.6
71	Alex Verdugo	Dodgers	4.8	10.8
72	Sam Travis	Red Sox	4.8	3.2
73	Stephen Gonsalves	Twins	4.8	3.8
74	Forrest Wall	Rockies	4.7	2.9
75	Carlos Tocci	Phillies	4.6	3.0
76	Aaron Nola	Phillies	4.5	2.6
77	Francis Martes	Astros	4.5	0.9
78	Clayton Blackburn	Giants	4.5	6.5
79	Andrew Knapp	Phillies	4.5	0.3
80	Peter Tago	White Sox	4.5	0.1
81	Mason Williams	Yankees	4.5	2.1
82	Alex Reyes	Cardinals	4.4	3.7
83	Cristhian Adames	Rockies	4.4	3.0
84	Jacob Nottingham	Athletics	4.3	0.4
85	Jason Martin	Astros	4.3	2.9
86	Matt Andriese	Rays	4.3	1.7
87	Ariel Jurado	Rangers	4.3	0.2
88	Mitch Horacek	Orioles	4.2	1.4
89	John Lamb	Reds	4.2	2.2
90	Wilfredo Tovar	Mets	4.2	2.8
91	Jonathan Gray	Rockies	4.2	2.3
92	Charlie Tilson	Cardinals	4.1	1.2
93	Antonio Senzatela	Rockies	4.1	1.5
94	Zach Lee	Dodgers	4.1	1.8
95	Tyler Duffey	Twins	4.1	1.2
96	Boog Powell	Rays	4.0	1.5
97	Daniel Robertson	Rays	4.0	1.3
98	Anthony Garcia	Cardinals	4.0	0.5
99	Robert Stephenson	Reds	4.0	2.2
100	Josh Hader	Brewers	3.9	2.4

*****

KATOH Forecasts for Kiley’s Top 26 Prospects

Rank	Player	Position	Age	Organization	PV	FV	KATOH WAR thru 28
1	Corey Seager	3B	21.3	Dodgers	50	65	9.1
2	Byron Buxton	CF	21.7	Twins	45	65	14.1
3	J.P. Crawford	SS	20.6	Phillies	45	65	10.8
4	Lucas Giolito	RHS	21.1	Nationals	45	65	6.2
5	Julio Urias	LHS	19	Dodgers	50	65	16.6
6	Yoan Moncada	2B	20.2	Red Sox	20	65	2.5
7	Jose Berrios	RHS	21.2	Twins	50	60	7.2
8	Orlando Arcia	SS	21	Brewers	45	60	11.5
9	Luis Severino	RHS	21.5	Yankees	50	60	12.5
10	Nomar Mazara	RF	20.3	Rangers	40	60	6.9
11	Tyler Glasnow	RHS	22	Pirates	40	60	11.8
12	Ozhaino Albies	SS	18.6	Braves	20	60	10.1
13	Joey Gallo	3B	21.7	Rangers	45	60	7.6
14	Franklin Barreto	SS	19.5	Athletics	20	60	6.5
15	Trea Turner	SS	22.1	Nationals	45	60	5.6
16	Blake Snell	LHS	22.7	Rays	50	60	3.9
17	Alex Reyes	RHS	21	Cardinals	20	60	4.4
18	Austin Meadows	CF	20.3	Pirates	20	60	2.5
19	Manuel Margot	CF	20.9	Red Sox	20	60	7.0
20	Rafael Devers	3B	18.8	Red Sox	20	60	6.7
21	Bradley Zimmer	RF	22.7	Indians	40	55	3.4
22	Aaron Judge	RF	23.3	Yankees	45	55	2.0
23	Gleyber Torres	SS	18.7	Cubs	20	55	6.1
24	Dansby Swanson	SS	21.5	D’Backs	20	55	NA
25	Jorge Mateo	SS	20.2	Yankees	20	55	2.4
26	Clint Frazier	CF	20.9	Indians	20	55	4.9

*****

KATOH forecasts for Kiley’s Minor-League Pop-Up Guys

Rank	Player	Pos	Age	Org	PV	FV	KATOH WAR thru 28
1	Francis Martes	RHS	19.7	Astros	35	55	4.5
2	Victor Robles	CF	18.2	Nationals	20	55	8.3
3	Jorge Lopez	RHS	22.5	Brewers	40	55	3.2
4	Anthony Alford	CF	21.1	Blue Jays	20	55	2.1
5	Gavin Cecchini	SS	21.7	Mets	45	55	6.9
6	Jose De Leon	RHS	23	Dodgers	40	55	6.9
7	A.J. Reed	1B	22.3	Astros	45	50	5.2
8	Javier Guerra	SS	19.9	Red Sox	20	50	3.4
9	Jacob Nottingham	C	20.4	A’s	20	50	4.3
10	Cody Reed	LHS	22.3	Reds	35	50	3.8
11	Anderson Espinoza	RHS	17.4	Red Sox	20	50	6.2
12	Max Kepler	LF	22.5	Twins	45	50	14.5
13	Trevor Story	SS	22.8	Rockies	45	50	6.2
14	Connor Greene	RHS	20.4	Blue Jays	20	50	1.3
15	Luke Weaver	RHS	22	Cardinals	20	50	0.3
16	Michael Fulmer	RHS	22.4	Tigers	40	50	3.9
17	Franklyn Kilome	RHS	20.1	Phillies	20	50	0.8
18	Jairo Labourt	LHS	21.4	Tigers	20	50	0.5