KATOH’s In-Season Prospect Update

by
August 20, 2015

Kiley McDaniel put out his 2015 In-Season Prospect Update on Wednesday, which got everyone up to speed on the game’s most noteworthy prospects. Among other things, Kiley included an ordered list of the top-26 prospects in baseball. To follow suit, I put together an updated top-100 list, according to my KATOH system. Additionally, I produced KATOH forecasts for Kiley’s top 26, the 18 players on his “Minor-League Pop-Up Guys List.”

I know you probably know this, but I’d like to reiterate that you shouldn’t think of this as “Chris Mitchell’s Top 100 List,” and certainly not “FanGraphs’ Top 100 List.” This is simply the output from a flawed statistical model that fails to take into account many of the factors that go into evaluating a prospect. In particular, it ignores a player’s physical tools. As always, you should never choose between beer and tacos if you don’t have to.

This also feels like a good time to run through a couple of programming notes regarding the state of KATOH. I am currently working on an improved KATOH model. Among some other tweaks, it will address two notable flaws:

  • Currently, KATOH does not directly take into account for a player’s defensive position. A hitter’s stolen base numbers can act as a decent proxy for his defensive value, but that proxy is far from perfect. Most notably, this conspires to underrate catchers.
  • Currently, KATOH uses raw (but league-adjusted) statistics that haven’t been properly regressed to account for sample size. Among other things, this often causes KATOH to misjudge players who have exceptionally high or low BABIPs.

I expect to roll out this update in November, but don’t hold me to that timetable. In the meantime, all of my posts — including this one — will continue to use the models I built last winter. Just keep this in mind, and I’ll be sure to point out any instances where KATOH might be misjudging a player due to these flaws.

Enough talk. Here’s KATOH’s top-100 list considering stats through August 18th. Only players with at least 200 plate appearances and/or batters faced this year were considered for this list. Before I jump into the list, I feel I should mention Carlos Correa here. Although he’s no longer a prospect, his forecast of 19 WAR through age-28 was easily the highest among players with a meaningful sample of games.

KATOH’s Top 100 Prospect List

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Rank Name Organization KATOH WAR thru 28 2014 KATOH WAR thru 28
1 Julio Urias Dodgers 16.6 12.2
2 Max Kepler Twins 14.5 1.1
3 Byron Buxton Twins 14.1 2.3
4 Dilson Herrera Mets 13.5 9.7
5 Domingo Santana Brewers 12.7 8.2
6 Luis Severino Yankees 12.5 7.2
7 Kyle Schwarber Cubs 12.1 6.1
8 Tyler Glasnow Pirates 11.8 6.9
9 Orlando Arcia Brewers 11.5 3.1
10 Ketel Marte Mariners 11.2 8.6
11 J.P. Crawford Phillies 10.8 4.4
12 Cody Bellinger Dodgers 10.2 2.6
13 Ozhaino Albies Braves 10.1 10.6
14 Jose Peraza Dodgers 10.1 8.5
15 Ruddy Giron Padres 9.8 6.1
16 Jake Bauers Rays 9.7 7.2
17 Raul Mondesi Royals 9.5 6.8
18 Corey Seager Dodgers 9.1 7.9
19 Victor Robles Nationals 8.3 NA
20 Dalton Pompey Blue Jays 8.1 7.1
21 Ramon Flores Mariners 7.8 7.9
22 Joey Gallo Rangers 7.6 11.0
23 Mallex Smith Braves 7.5 1.7
24 Alen Hanson Pirates 7.5 7.0
25 Nick Williams Phillies 7.3 4.6
26 Jesse Winker Reds 7.2 6.5
27 Jose Berrios Twins 7.2 7.0
28 Manuel Margot Red Sox 7.0 7.7
29 Gavin Cecchini Mets 6.9 1.8
30 Billy Mckinney Cubs 6.9 4.7
31 Nomar Mazara Rangers 6.9 5.7
32 Jose De Leon Dodgers 6.9 3.9
33 Ryan Mcmahon Rockies 6.7 4.6
34 Rafael Devers Red Sox 6.7 8.7
35 Lewis Brinson Rangers 6.7 4.0
36 Cole Tucker Pirates 6.6 6.6
37 Roman Quinn Phillies 6.6 1.1
38 Franklin Barreto Athletics 6.5 6.6
39 Albert Almora Cubs 6.3 1.8
40 Trevor Story Rockies 6.2 3.5
41 Lucas Giolito Nationals 6.2 5.0
42 Micah Johnson White Sox 6.2 3.4
43 Gleyber Torres Cubs 6.1 10.6
44 Juremi Profar Rangers 6.1 2.6
45 Tyler O’Neill Mariners 6.0 1.7
46 Benjamin Gamel Yankees 5.9 1.5
47 Gregory Bird Yankees 5.9 5.2
48 Jorge Polanco Twins 5.8 2.7
49 Willy Adames Rays 5.8 5.6
50 Trea Turner Nationals 5.6 2.2
51 Jomar Reyes Orioles 5.5 7.4
52 Johan Mieses Dodgers 5.5 NA
53 Zach Davies Orioles 5.5 4.4
54 Cheslor Cuthbert Royals 5.2 5.7
55 A.J. Reed Astros 5.2 1.9
56 Michael Reed Brewers 5.2 1.6
57 Renato Nunez Athletics 5.2 3.9
58 Matt Olson Athletics 5.1 7.2
59 Edwin Diaz Mariners 5.1 3.3
60 Josh Bell Pirates 5.1 1.9
61 Tyler White Astros 5.0 0.7
62 Brett Phillips Brewers 4.9 5.2
63 Clint Frazier Indians 4.9 1.5
64 Hanser Alberto Rangers 4.9 2.3
65 Henry Owens Red Sox 4.9 6.2
66 Gary Sanchez Yankees 4.9 3.1
67 Matthew Wisler Braves 4.8 5.2
68 Bryan Mejia Nationals 4.8 1.1
69 Daniel Norris Tigers 4.8 5.0
70 K.J. Woods Marlins 4.8 0.6
71 Alex Verdugo Dodgers 4.8 10.8
72 Sam Travis Red Sox 4.8 3.2
73 Stephen Gonsalves Twins 4.8 3.8
74 Forrest Wall Rockies 4.7 2.9
75 Carlos Tocci Phillies 4.6 3.0
76 Aaron Nola Phillies 4.5 2.6
77 Francis Martes Astros 4.5 0.9
78 Clayton Blackburn Giants 4.5 6.5
79 Andrew Knapp Phillies 4.5 0.3
80 Peter Tago White Sox 4.5 0.1
81 Mason Williams Yankees 4.5 2.1
82 Alex Reyes Cardinals 4.4 3.7
83 Cristhian Adames Rockies 4.4 3.0
84 Jacob Nottingham Athletics 4.3 0.4
85 Jason Martin Astros 4.3 2.9
86 Matt Andriese Rays 4.3 1.7
87 Ariel Jurado Rangers 4.3 0.2
88 Mitch Horacek Orioles 4.2 1.4
89 John Lamb Reds 4.2 2.2
90 Wilfredo Tovar Mets 4.2 2.8
91 Jonathan Gray Rockies 4.2 2.3
92 Charlie Tilson Cardinals 4.1 1.2
93 Antonio Senzatela Rockies 4.1 1.5
94 Zach Lee Dodgers 4.1 1.8
95 Tyler Duffey Twins 4.1 1.2
96 Boog Powell Rays 4.0 1.5
97 Daniel Robertson Rays 4.0 1.3
98 Anthony Garcia Cardinals 4.0 0.5
99 Robert Stephenson Reds 4.0 2.2
100 Josh Hader Brewers 3.9 2.4

*****

KATOH Forecasts for Kiley’s Top 26 Prospects

Rank Player Position Age Organization PV FV KATOH WAR thru 28
1 Corey Seager 3B 21.3 Dodgers 50 65 9.1
2 Byron Buxton CF 21.7 Twins 45 65 14.1
3 J.P. Crawford SS 20.6 Phillies 45 65 10.8
4 Lucas Giolito RHS 21.1 Nationals 45 65 6.2
5 Julio Urias LHS 19 Dodgers 50 65 16.6
6 Yoan Moncada 2B 20.2 Red Sox 20 65 2.5
7 Jose Berrios RHS 21.2 Twins 50 60 7.2
8 Orlando Arcia SS 21 Brewers 45 60 11.5
9 Luis Severino RHS 21.5 Yankees 50 60 12.5
10 Nomar Mazara RF 20.3 Rangers 40 60 6.9
11 Tyler Glasnow RHS 22 Pirates 40 60 11.8
12 Ozhaino Albies SS 18.6 Braves 20 60 10.1
13 Joey Gallo 3B 21.7 Rangers 45 60 7.6
14 Franklin Barreto SS 19.5 Athletics 20 60 6.5
15 Trea Turner SS 22.1 Nationals 45 60 5.6
16 Blake Snell LHS 22.7 Rays 50 60 3.9
17 Alex Reyes RHS 21 Cardinals 20 60 4.4
18 Austin Meadows CF 20.3 Pirates 20 60 2.5
19 Manuel Margot CF 20.9 Red Sox 20 60 7.0
20 Rafael Devers 3B 18.8 Red Sox 20 60 6.7
21 Bradley Zimmer RF 22.7 Indians 40 55 3.4
22 Aaron Judge RF 23.3 Yankees 45 55 2.0
23 Gleyber Torres SS 18.7 Cubs 20 55 6.1
24 Dansby Swanson SS 21.5 D’Backs 20 55 NA
25 Jorge Mateo SS 20.2 Yankees 20 55 2.4
26 Clint Frazier CF 20.9 Indians 20 55 4.9

*****

KATOH forecasts for Kiley’s Minor-League Pop-Up Guys

Rank Player Pos Age Org PV FV KATOH WAR thru 28
1 Francis Martes RHS 19.7 Astros 35 55 4.5
2 Victor Robles CF 18.2 Nationals 20 55 8.3
3 Jorge Lopez RHS 22.5 Brewers 40 55 3.2
4 Anthony Alford CF 21.1 Blue Jays 20 55 2.1
5 Gavin Cecchini SS 21.7 Mets 45 55 6.9
6 Jose De Leon RHS 23 Dodgers 40 55 6.9
7 A.J. Reed 1B 22.3 Astros 45 50 5.2
8 Javier Guerra SS 19.9 Red Sox 20 50 3.4
9 Jacob Nottingham C 20.4 A’s 20 50 4.3
10 Cody Reed LHS 22.3 Reds 35 50 3.8
11 Anderson Espinoza RHS 17.4 Red Sox 20 50 6.2
12 Max Kepler LF 22.5 Twins 45 50 14.5
13 Trevor Story SS 22.8 Rockies 45 50 6.2
14 Connor Greene RHS 20.4 Blue Jays 20 50 1.3
15 Luke Weaver RHS 22 Cardinals 20 50 0.3
16 Michael Fulmer RHS 22.4 Tigers 40 50 3.9
17 Franklyn Kilome RHS 20.1 Phillies 20 50 0.8
18 Jairo Labourt LHS 21.4 Tigers 20 50 0.5





 

Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

34 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
DNA+
11 years ago

Luis Severino looking quite good, and maintaining absurd velocity late in games. ….speaking of which, Nathan Eovaldi was ridiculous yesterday. He had more than 20 pitches of 100+, and he maintained it into the 7th. I don’t think I’ve ever seen that kind of velocity from a starting pitcher.

2
ShauncoreMember since 2019
11 years ago

Biggest changes in KATOH projection from 2014:

Max Kepler +13.4
Byron Buxton +11.8
Orlando Arcia +8.4
Cody Bellinger +7.6
JP Crawford +6.4
Kyle Schwarber +6.0

Biggest drops

Alex Verdugo -6
Gleyber Torres -4.5
Joey Gallo -3.4
Matt Olson -2.1
Clayton Blackburn -2
Rafael Devers -2
Jomar Reyes -1.9
Henry Owens -1.3

12
JoBoo
11 years ago

Max Kepler huh….I should read the Fringe Five more often. Nice stuff Chris, and the improvements to KATOH you are getting into do sound like they will be very worthwhile.

1
Mike
11 years ago
Reply to  JoBoo

Kepler might be one of those BABIP overrated guys he alluded to. Not to say he didn’t improve his prospect stock anyway.

0
Alec Eiffel
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike

Kepler’s BABIP is high, but he’s not striking out at an alarming rate, he controls the strike zone quite well, and his ISO suggests he’s tagging the ball when he does make contact. He’s a fantastic prospect.

0
TKDC
11 years ago

Interesting to see Mallex Smith 23rd here. He’s not getting a lot of national prospect hype, but Braves fans are falling over themselves about him.

1
GoToWarMissAgnes
11 years ago

Zach Davies is in the Brewers’ org now.

1
Damaso
11 years ago

I can’t say enough about how much I love KATOH, even if it’s got room to improve. Perhaps this is only because it seems to reflect well the differences of opinion I have with other more traditional scouting rankings, but whatever it is, I like it.

Nice to see, for example, that KATOH appreciates how my boy Dalton Pompey has actually improved his prospect stock with his performance this year, not hurt it.

Also interesting to see that KATOH is seeing an issue with Rafael Devers that the scouting rankings aren’t seeing yet.

0
Jorge Fabregas
11 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

I don’t think KATOH incorporates Pompey’s major league numbers, FWIW.

0
Damaso
11 years ago
Reply to  Jorge Fabregas

not sure including 134 mlb pa of 77wrc+ with a .259babip at ages 21/22 would hurt his projection at all, tbh.

0
Jorge Fabregas
11 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

I imagine it would a bit. It uses single season numbers, so it’s small sample sizes all around.

0
Damaso
11 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

I’m not sure 77wrc+ with a .259babip for a speed/defense CF at ages 21/22 is even bad. It might even be looked as a positive.

-1
evo34Member since 2023
11 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

Maybe not, but a .349 SLG over 250 PA at AAA for a 22.5 y.o. is not so hot..

0
Damaso
11 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

katoh doesn’t seem to mind it so much.

0
Mike
11 years ago

Awesome resource. Maybe a stupid question, but, I’m a little confused with “Katoh WAR through age 28.” Is that estimating when a player will be called up, so for one guy WAR through 28 would be his 22-28 year old seasons, and for another, older player in the minors, it would be his 24-28 year old seasons?

In other words, will younger for their level guys get a bump because they would presumably just play more MLB seasons through age 28?

2
TC
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike

+1 to Mike’s comment

I think it’d be interesting to see average WAR/year before age 28 also.

1
TKDC
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike

Second this. Though it’s rare to be a top prospect still in the minors at age 25 or 26, they do exist, and their value to their team lies in later years. Since I think the main thing people care about is what a prospect is going to give his team prior to free agency, it might be cool to just project MLB ETA + 6 years.

1
Gooderson
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike

I am assuming this is why Herrera is #4, he has played MLB games as a 20/21 year old and has two seasons at AAA, so the projection must give him more years to produce WAR.

0
DKH
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike

Chris’s original HBT article on KATOH is linked in his intro above.

If I’m reading it correctly, the model uses age as a regression variable. It finds that age has significant predictive value on WAR through age 28, likely for the reason you suggest, i.e. a player that is young (for his level) will have more seasons to produce WAR once he reaches the majors.

The regression found that age had a non-linear effect for a prospect in AAA. I would guess this means that a player that reaches AAA (and performs) at an especially young age will get a stronger boost to their WAR prediction due to this effect.

What you appear to be suggesting is a model that predicts when a player gets called up to the majors, and then the performance of that player within their seasons in MLB. This is NOT what KATOH does; that scheme is closer to ZIPS, PECOTA, or the other projection systems that model seasonal performance.

0
Mike
11 years ago
Reply to  DKH

Thanks for the comment and pointing me in the right direction.

From the article: “For this first iteration of KATOH, I looked exclusively at minor league hitters and estimated the probability they would play in the majors. This time around, I’ve expanded the system to slap a probability on a wider variety of outcomes–namely WAR thresholds–that a player might achieve through age 28. The thresholds I chose were loosely based on the 20-80 scale for overall value laid out by Kiley McDaniel.”

So it is definitely predicting if the player will make the majors, and while not explicitly predicting “when and how many seasons,” (like you mentioned) by looking at similar aged, style and level appropriate players, the extra MLB playing time is already baked in. If I’m reading any of this right, ha.

0
DKH
11 years ago
Reply to  Mike

This may be overly pedantic, but I don’t think there’s any indication that Chris is “predicting if the player will make the majors…by looking at similar aged, style and level appropriate players.” That sounds like a cohort study, in which players would be grouped based on like characteristics.

The HBT article does not show the math in detail, but Chris does not appear to have divided the data, instead running a probit regression across the whole dataset at once. A cohort study would look different: for two groups of players with (for example) similar strikeout rates, walk rates, and ISOs, but different ages, are the odds of producing 8 WAR in MLB different?

You are correct that the probit regression will naturally “bake in” the increased opportunity that a younger player has of playing in the majors (and producing WAR) due to having more time available to make the appearance.

0
chad
11 years ago

There is no way.extremely hot gun. Try again

-1
chad
11 years ago
Reply to  chad

Evoldi

0
DNA+
11 years ago
Reply to  chad

Perhaps, but Ervin Santana was not exceptional relative to his past performance, while Eovaldi was extremely fast:

Eovaldi: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9132&position=P&pitch=FA

Santana: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=3200&position=P&pitch=FA

0
chad
11 years ago

Any list with mason williams and wilfredo tovar on it is a joke

-2
Well-Beered Englishman
11 years ago

I’m curious about the major differences between scouts’ perceptions and KATOH on guys like Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito.

0
Damaso
11 years ago
Reply to  Well-Beered Englishman

surprised gio comes in low here. He was about a year young for A+ and dominated across the board, and has been good in AA though 2 years young for the level. Would think his numbers would spit out a pretty rosy projection.

Moncada’s overall performance hasn’t justified his scouting hype, but with a caveat that his post all star performance has been pretty great after a horrible first half. If that is more of him “flipping a switch” rather than just typical prospect improvement, then KATOH will likely be kinder to him next year.

0
state the obvious
11 years ago
Reply to  Damaso

Moncada had a bad first 3 weeks not half. Which is totally understandable of someone not having played in games in that long.

0
evo34Member since 2023
11 years ago

Love the concept, but wish it would show offensive WAR only. Without knowing off-hand how much of an “above-replacement” boost a SS gets vs. say an OF, it’s very hard to compare two players from an offensive perspective.

1
That One Commenter
11 years ago

I’m a fan of a big league team. My question is, why didn’t you rank this one prospect from my favorite team higher? He clearly belongs higher up on the list!

1
Native
11 years ago

The Dbacks are totally boned. I don’t think there is even a prospect we gave up in one of the many hundreds and thousands of bad trades we made on these lists. Except for one kid… Who we got for being the worst team in baseball last year.

0
David Scott
11 years ago

Not a single Angel prospect on these lists. Thank goodness Mike Trout is as young as he is.

0
Kevin Mattern
11 years ago
Reply to  David Scott

Newcombe is going to be a really good pitcher..

0
Mr. National League
11 years ago

Any chance of adding a KATOH live update website, with daily updated values?

0