Kazmir’s Value

With trade winds swirling around him, Scott Kazmir had his best start of the season last night, shutting down the Yankees over seven strong innings. It was the first time all year he’d managed to complete the seventh inning, and only the fourth start where he’d walked less than two batters. His velocity was still down compared to previous years (topping out at 93), but several ticks above where it was when he landed on the disabled list.

Over the six starts Kazmir has made since coming off the DL, Kazmir has thrown 35 1/3 IP, walked 12, struck out 27, and allowed just five home runs. Before landing on the DL, he had a 29/35 BB/K in 45 innings over nine starts. The rest certainly did him some good.

The question for Tampa Bay and potential Kazmir suitors is what they should expect going forward. ZIPS is extremely bullish on Kazmir, but that’s mostly based on his strong strikeout rates from 2007 and 2008, which probably went away with his velocity. Even the post-DL Kazmir is only averaging 6.95 strikeouts per nine innings, way down from his whiff numbers the last two years.

If he’s a 4 BB/7 K/1 HR per nine inning guy, that’s about a +1.5 to +2 win pitcher. Kazmir is under contract for $20 million in 2010/2011, and then a team option of $13.5 million for 2012 or a $2.5 million buyout. So, he’s either going to cost $22 million for two years or $33 million for three years.

+1.5 to +2.0 win pitchers aren’t worth $11 million a year. However, there is of course the chance (however small) that Kazmir’s stuff and strikeout rates rebound, and he gets back to something more like the +4 win pitcher he was from 2005-2007. That built-in upside has to be factored into his cost, and probably pushes his true market value to somewhere in the $10 to $11 million neighborhood on a short term deal.

In other words, Kazmir’s deal isn’t a terrible one. It’s not a bargain in any sense, but it’s probably not that far off what he’d get if he was a free agent. Given the ratio between his talent level and cost, he should have trade value right around zero. He’s not a boat anchor that teams won’t touch, but the price tag is high enough that the Rays shouldn’t expect any real talent coming back in return.

If Tampa wants financial flexibility, they can probably dump Kazmir on someone with the payroll space to take a risk. Given their budget issues and pitching depth, it’s probably not a bad idea to move him now.